Determining the Impact of Nigeria's Economic Crisis on the Multinational Oil Companies: A Goal Programming Approach

Traditionally, regression analysis has frequently been used in quantitative policy-impact analysis, but this paper utilizes goal programming methodology to examine the impact of Nigeria's economic crisis on the multinational oil companies in Nigeria. The results obtained indicate that, as the multinational oil companies are paid prices far below the world oil market prices, the current economic crisis in the country imposes losses on the companies and discourages large capital investment. In particular, the huge losses call for negotiation between the government and the multinational oil companies for better policy measures, such as a relaxation of the existing pricing policy, to reduce the losses resulting from the current economic crisis.     

An application of multi-objective modeling: The case of the Indian sugar industry

A multi-objective linear programming model is developed for the Indian sugar industry to plan for additional output by production technique, geographical region and forecasted year. Various policy scenarios generated by assigning different values to the policy variables in the model are studied. Thus a useful planning tool which demonstrates the exact impact of the policy parameters on various objectives is provided to the central decision maker. A satisficing multi-objective decision making method is developed based on an existing method of solution and used in policy analysis. The solution method is ideally suited to any general planning problem.     

An Approximation of a Markov Decision Process for Resource Planning

This study presents an approximation of a Markovian decision process to calculate resource planning policies for environments with probabilistic resource demand. These policies provide a means of periodic determination of the quantity of resources required to be available. Managers may also use these approximation models to perform the sensitivity analysis of resource demand and the cost/reward parameters. The decision policy can be applied to many resource planning situations including manufacturing or construction equipment purchasing or leasing, airline capacity, professional services staffing, and computer/management information systems capacity.     

Hospital management games: a taxonomy and extensive review

Hospital management games have gained importance in better planning for scarce resources in times of growing health care demand and increasing technology costs. We classify and investigate the main characteristics of these games from an Operations Research (OR) perspective. Hospital management games model the complex decision making process of internal resource, process, and financial management all influenced by the external hospital environment (e.g., purchasing markets, job markets, legal/political conditions, competition) and simulate situations of the real world. We also highlight the potential of these games for teaching OR in the classroom. Experiencing the advantages of OR may reduce the reservations policy makers have and could make them increasingly open to promoting OR applications in practice. We also disclose potential for new applications.     

基于关键因素的国家重大区域规划实施效果评价

以国家重大区域规划中的长三角为实证研究对象,利用加权灰色关联度筛选出与政策效果评价关联性高度相关的政策指标:中央财政专项拨款、中央补助收入、中央固定资产投资额,进而建立政策指标与规划目标的第三产业增加值的对数回归函数,通过过去的数据预测某一特定年份第三产业增加值,并与该年份的实际值进行对比、评价国家重大区域规划的政策效果。本文的特色与创新一是通过灰色关联度剔除与政策效果评价关联度小的指标,筛选出对重大区域规划政策效果有显著影响的关键因素。二是通过时间权向量对政策指标的关联度进行加权,体现时间越近的年份、加权灰色关联度越大,指标越应该保留的思路,保证年份越近的指标数据、对评价结果影响越显著。三是通过历史数据的预测,得到在没有规划政策下、区域自然发展的目标效果,并把其与同一时点、政策实施后的实际效果进行对比,得到政策实施后的政策绩效。实证结果表明应该增大对上海和浙江影响显著的中央财政专项拨款的政策投入,减少对上海和浙江影响不显著的中央固定资产投资额的投入。     

Complementary Modelling Approaches for Analysing Several Effects of Privatization on Electricity Investment

Through the impacts of higher required rates of return, debt, taxation changes and a new competitive structure for the industry, investment in electricity generating capacity has taken a shift to less capital-intensive technologies in the UK. This paper reports on the use of large-scale, long-term capacity planning models, of both an optimization and system dynamics nature, to reflect these separate factors, investigate their sensitivities and to generate future scenarios for the investment in the industry. Some new policy implications for the regulation of the industry become apparent, but the main focus of the paper is to develop some of the methodological changes required by the planning models to suit the privatized context.     

基于水量水质耦合多目标模型的辽源地区水资源优化配置

对水资源进行优化配置是解决社会经济发展与水资源可用量紧张的有效手段.采用区域水质—水量耦合水资源优化配置模型,以吉林省辽源市2010年数据为基准,对2020年水资源配置进行优化预测.研究结果表明,辽源市在规划期内"三生"用水结构由89:10:1调整到81:18:1.其中生产用水中第一产业用水量下降2.17%,第二产业用水总量下降2.78%.第三产业用水量提升4.29%,同时降低了水污染的排放.优化方案可有效降低辽源市水资源消耗与水环境污染,为水资源的可持续利用提供了有效的技术支持.     

The Minimal Requirements Approach to Policy Modelling in Public Planning

This paper argues that an approach to policy modelling in public planning must deal with the existence of conflicts between actors holding constraint sets, rather than players with strategies able to affect each other's payoffs. This approach builds on the policy level language proposed by Shiv K. Gupta and Laurence D. Richards. Operational definitions of modelling variables, conflict situations and potential pairwise coalitions are given. The approach is simple enough to allow manual calculation in small-scale problems and has a matrix notation which enables the use of computer programs for large-scale problems. A conceptual example which illustrates the features of the proposed modelling approach is presented and discussed.     

Automatic generation of efficient policy alternatives via simulation-optimization

Simulation-optimization methods can be used for many practical and industrial problems in which some or all of the system components are stochastic. These techniques can be applied to a wide variety of problem types, including those in which some functions cannot be represented analytically. In contrast to earlier function optimization approaches, in this paper, these techniques are used for generating several new policy options for planning applications. By using this approach, multiple policy alternatives can be created that meet established system criteria, while simultaneously remaining acceptable and implementable in practice. A subsequent comparative evaluation of the alternatives would be undertaken prior to final policy selection. An illustrative application of the method is provided to demonstrate the usefulness of this approach in the planning phase of policy design.     

Inventory control of service parts in the final phase

We consider an appliance manufacturer's problem of controlling the inventory of a service part in its final phase. That phase begins when the production of the appliance containing that part is discontinued (time 0), and ends when the last service contract on that appliance expires. Thus, the planning horizon is deterministic and known. There is no setup cost for ordering. However, if a part is not ordered at time 0, its price will be higher. The objective is to minimize the total expected undiscounted costs of replenishment, inventory holding, backorder, and disposal (of unused parts at the end of the planning horizon). We propose an ordering policy consisting of an initial order-up-to level at time 0, and a subsequent series of decreasing order-up-to levels for various intervals of the planning horizon. We present a method of calculating the optimal policy, along with a numerical example and sensitivity analysis.     

Reliability analysis of a single warm-standby system subject to repairable and nonrepairable failures

An n-unit system provisioned with a single warm standby is investigated. The individual units are subject to repairable failures, while the entire system is subject to a nonrepairable failure at some finite but random time in the future. System performance measures for systems observed over a time interval of random duration are introduced. Two models to compute these system performance measures, one employing a policy of block replacement, and the other without a block replacement policy, are developed. Distributional assumptions involving distributions of phase type introduce matrix Laplace transformations into the calculations of the performance measures. It is shown that these measures are easily carried out on a laptop computer using Microsoft Excel. A simple economic model is used to illustrate how the performance measures may be used to determine optimal economic design specifications for the warm standby.     

Real time gaming with real decision makers — experiences from crises management gaming for the Swedish economic defence

A gaming procedure has been used in order to improve the crises management ability of non-military defence authorities in Sweden. The game had three important characteristics: It was implemented in (almost) real time. It was played by real decisionmakers. Finally it was based on a fixed scenario, which was fully known by the participants at the outset of the game. The scenario gave no answer, however, of how the crisis ended. Some interesting methodological conclusions could be drawn: The fixed but unended scenario revealed the difficulty for the decisionmakers to base their decisions on judgement of the uncertain development of the crisis. The real time made it possible to engage real decisionmakers (with some exceptions for politicians), which in turn made it possible to reveal organizational deficiences concerning the responsibility for different tasks. The real time also made it obvious that the distinction between planning for crises and acting in a crisis is not as relevant as in often thought.     

Competition under different reimbursement systems: The concept of an internet-based hospital management game

We have developed an internet-based management game to illustrate the economic and organisational decision-making process in a hospital by using discrete event simulation. Up to six hospitals compete against each other for inpatients with different disease categories and budget depending on hospital mission, regional health policy, inpatient reimbursement system (day-, case- and global-budget based) as well as labour and radiology technology market for 12 decision periods. Players can evaluate alternative actions for capacity planning as well as patient scheduling and control problems depending on different game situations. The uniqueness of COREmain hospital game consists of the internet-based framework, the combination of resource, process and financial result management, the competition of hospitals within a region and the consideration of different inpatient reimbursement systems. The deployment of this game in teaching, policy and research might improve policy making both at a hospital, regional and national level and also induce further research in these fields.     

Editorial

The credit crisis is a complex societal problem in which many phenomena and actors are involved. If one wants to analyze the causes of this problem, try to stabilize the situation and prevent new fall backs, a multi-disciplinary approach is prescribed. A careful analysis based on the scientific methodology of societal complexity is needed in order to find how the credit crisis happened and how new crises can be prevented. Theories of multiple disciplines must be used by a multi disciplinary team to analyze the situation and to find sustainable options. This process can be accomplished by following the Compram Methodology of DeTombe. The Compram Methodology provides a framework for policy making which includes many methods and tools. The Compram Methodology is specialized to handle complex interdisciplinary world-wide problems and to offer a step-by-step approach of analyzing the problem, finding and implementing sustainable interventions and evaluating the effects. The Compram Methodology offers a bird’s-eye view on the complexity of the problem and gives directions to policy makers to build their decisions on using a multi-disciplinary, multi-actor approach. In this article the credit crisis is discussed in relation with the Compram Methodology. Aspects of the credit crisis are described with an emphasis on the role of the actors. Based on the Compram Methodology directions can be provided for handling the credit crisis and avoiding future similar problems.     

Optimal two-phase vaccine allocation to geographically different regions under uncertainty

In this article, we consider a decision process in which vaccination is performed in two phases to contain the outbreak of an infectious disease in a set of geographic regions. In the first phase, a limited number of vaccine doses are allocated to each region; in the second phase, additional doses may be allocated to regions in which the epidemic has not been contained. We develop a simulation model to capture the epidemic dynamics in each region for different vaccination levels. We formulate the vaccine allocation problem as a two-stage stochastic linear program (2-SLP) and use the special problem structure to reduce it to a linear program with a similar size to that of the first stage problem. We also present a Newsvendor model formulation of the problem which provides a closed form solution for the optimal allocation. We construct test cases motivated by vaccine planning for seasonal influenza in the state of North Carolina. Using the 2-SLP formulation, we estimate the value of the stochastic solution and the expected value of perfect information. We also propose and test an easy to implement heuristic for vaccine allocation. We show that our proposed two-phase vaccination policy potentially results in a lower attack rate and a considerable saving in vaccine production and administration cost.     

A dynamic logistics model for medical resources allocation in an epidemic control with demand forecast updating

This paper presents a dynamic logistics model for medical resources allocation that can be used to control an epidemic diffusion. It couples a forecasting mechanism, constructed for the demand of a medicine in the course of such epidemic diffusion, and a logistics planning system to satisfy the forecasted demand and minimize the total cost. The forecasting mechanism is a time discretized version of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model that is widely employed in predicting the trajectory of an epidemic diffusion. The logistics planning system is formulated as a mixed 0–1 integer programming problem characterizing the decision making at various levels of hospitals, distribution centers, pharmaceutical plants, and the transportation in between them. The model is built as a closed-loop cycle, comprising forecast phase, planning phase, execution phase, and adjustment phase. The parameters of the forecast mechanism are adjusted in reflection of the real data collected in the execution phase by solving a quadratic programming problem. A numerical example is presented to verify efficiency of the model.     

Planning federal public investment in Mexico using multiobjective decision making

The scope of this article is showing how multicriteria decision making can be anefficient tool to manage public investment planning in complex situations. Forthis aim, we will analyse the problem in all its aspects: building the modelfrom data using econometrical tools, solving the resulting highly complex modelusing modern efficient techniques (multiobjective meta-heuristics) and helpingthe decision maker to introduce his preferences in order to achieve the mostpreferred solution. This holistic approach let us provide an efficient solutionto a complex public investment planning situation, improving the current stateof the country relating not only economical aspects, but also social and humandevelopment aspects. The real situation studied is focused on Mexico, where, inrecent decades, has undergone remarkable improvements in terms of economicgrowth, which has not been matched by significant improvements in several otherbasic aspects of human development, nor by reductions in regional inequalities.This suggests the need to establish policies aimed at improving these aspectsand reducing inequalities. Federal public investment is an important tool inregional policy to promote and improve these aspects; so we introduce amultiobjective programming problem for planning federal public investment inMexico. This model will focus on improving national levels in four maindimensions of human development (economic growth, education, health andhousing), and on reducing regional inequalities for those dimensions.     

基于景气指数的我国工业经济周期性波动特征及本轮波动特点研究

通过多方面收集与我国工业部门经济运行相关的月度经济指标,利用时差相关分析等方法从中筛选出我国工业经济运行的先行、一致和滞后指标,并利用国际上先进的合成指数方法构建了我国工业部门的景气指数,根据其波动态势具体分析了我国工业经济的周期性波动特征,并结合主要经济指标的变动对我国工业部门的本轮景气波动特点进行了具体分析。结果表明2000年以来我国工业经济共经历了三次完整地景气循环,现正处于第四次循环的下降期。其中第一轮循环属于典型的长扩张型周期,并且呈现明显的非对称性周期特征,第二轮循环属于典型的震荡型周期,且收缩幅度和扩张幅度明显缩小,受金融危机影响第三轮景气循环的谷底较深,但随后我国工业景气呈现强劲上升态势,目前工业景气指数处于下降期.     

Building a photovoltaic marketing model based on feed-in tariffs and system installed cost

The purpose of this research is to establish an analytic model that combines energy policy and the photovoltaic (PV) industry from the governmental perspective. We suggest that government decision-makers set a policy goal for the cumulated installed total quantity of grid-connected PV systems for a certain planning horizon. The objective of their mathematical programming is to minimize the system total average cost of feed-in tariffs (FITs) policy support and the learning investment per kilowatt (kW) PV system installed. In order to attain this goal, they must determine the appropriate FIT unit price and constant change rate that will stimulate residents of developing countries to install the PV systems rapidly. We also expect to achieve a learning effect through the accumulating experience in grid-connected PV systems that will reduce the system installed cost per kW each year. Our analysis reveals that the unit PV installed cost decreases with time and that the cost reduction is quite rapid when the change rate is large. To a certain extent, levering the magnitude of the change rate could affect the growth of the PV product life cycle. If governments in developing countries need to install a large quantity of PV systems at an early stage to reverse global warming or overcome the effects of climate change, then they must choose a higher change rate with a relatively larger initial FIT unit price to a FIT scheme.