Multiresolution analysis of fluctuations in non-stationary time series through discrete wavelets

We illustrate the efficacy of a discrete wavelet based approach to characterize fluctuations in non-stationary time series. The present approach complements the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method and is quite accurate for small size data sets. As compared to polynomial fits in the MF-DFA, a single Daubechies wavelet is used here for detrending purposes. The natural, built-in variable window size in wavelet transforms makes this procedure well suited for non-stationary data. We illustrate the working of this method through the analysis of binomial multifractal model. For this model, our results compare well with those calculated analytically and obtained numerically through MF-DFA. To show the efficacy of this approach for finite data sets, we also do the above comparison for Gaussian white noise time series of different sizes. In addition, we analyze time series of three experimental data sets of tokamak plasma and also spin density fluctuations in 2D Ising model.     

Complex network approach for recurrence analysis of time series

We propose a novel approach for analysing time series using complex network theory. We identify the recurrence matrix (calculated from time series) with the adjacency matrix of a complex network and apply measures for the characterisation of complex networks to this recurrence matrix. By using the logistic map, we illustrate the potential of these complex network measures for the detection of dynamical transitions. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to a marine palaeo-climate record and identify the subtle changes to the climate regime.     

Alteration in scaling behavior of short-term heartbeat time series for professional shooting athletes from rest to exercise

Scaling analysis of heartbeat time series has emerged as a useful tool for assessing the autonomic cardiac control under various physiologic and pathologic conditions. We study the heartbeat activity and scaling behavior of heartbeat fluctuations regulated by autonomic nervous system for professional shooting athletes under two states: rest and exercise, by applying the detrended fluctuation analysis method. We focus on alteration in correlation properties of heartbeat intervals for the shooters from rest to exercise, which may have a potential value in monitoring the quality of training and evaluating the sports capacity of the athletes. The result shows that scaling exponents of short-term heart rate variability signals from the shooters get significantly larger during exercise compared with those obtained at rest. It demonstrates that during exercise stronger correlations appear in the heartbeat series of shooting athletes in order to satisfy the specific requirements for high concentration and better control on their heart beats.     

Degree distributions of the visibility graphs mapped from fractional Brownian motions and multifractal random walks

The dynamics of a complex system is usually recorded in the form of time series, which can be studied through its visibility graph from a complex network perspective. We investigate the visibility graphs extracted from fractional Brownian motions and multifractal random walks, and find that the degree distributions exhibit power-law behaviors, in which the power-law exponent α is a linear function of the Hurst index H of the time series. We also find that the degree distribution of the visibility graph is mainly determined by the temporal correlation of the original time series with minor influence from the possible multifractal nature. As an example, we study the visibility graphs constructed from three Chinese stock market indexes and unveil that the degree distributions have power-law tails, where the tail exponents of the visibility graphs and the Hurst indexes of the indexes are close to the α∼H linear relationship.     

Chaotic time series prediction: From one to another

In this Letter, a new local linear prediction model is proposed to predict a chaotic time series of a component x(t) by using the chaotic time series of another component y(t) in the same system with x(t). Our approach is based on the phase space reconstruction coming from the Takens embedding theorem. To illustrate our results, we present an example of Lorenz system and compare with the performance of the original local linear prediction model.     

Emergence of spatio-temporal patterns in forest-fire sequences

Temporal variation of spatial clustering in fire data recorded from 1997 to 2003 in Tuscany region, central Italy, has been investigated using the Voronoï polygon area, the Morishita index and the fractal dimension. Our findings reveal that the spatial clustering of fire events changes with time, showing an enhancement of the clustering degree before the largest events.     

Long term memory in extreme returns of financial time series

It is well known that while daily price returns of financial markets are uncorrelated, their absolute values (‘volatility’) are long-term correlated. Here we provide evidence that certain subsequences of the returns themselves also exhibit long-term memory. These subsequences consist of maxima (or minima) of returns in consecutive time windows of R days. Our analysis shows that for both stocks and currency exchange rates, long-term correlations are significant for R≥4. We argue that this long-term memory which is similar to that observed in volatility clustering sheds further insight on price dynamics that might be used for risk estimation.     

Multifractality in the random parameter model for multivariate time series

The Random Parameter model was proposed to explain the structure of the covariance matrix in problems where most, but not all, of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix can be explained by Random Matrix Theory. In this article, we explore the scaling properties of the model, as observed in the multifractal structure of the simulated time series. We use the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima technique to obtain the multifractal spectrum dependence with the parameters of the model. The model shows a scaling structure compatible with the stylized facts for a reasonable choice of the parameter values.     

Analyses of Optimal Embedding Dimension and Delay for Local Linear Prediction Model

In the reconstructed phase space, a novel local linear prediction model is proposed to predict chaotic time series. The parameters of the proposed model take the values that are different from those of the phase space reconstruction. We propose a criterion based on prediction error to determine the optimal parameters of the proposed model. The simulation results show that the proposed model can effectively make one-step and multistep prediction for chaotic time series, and the one-step and multi-step prediction accuracy of the proposed model is superior to that of the traditional local linear prediction.     

Noise Effects on Temperature Encoding of Neuronal Spike Trains in a Cold Receptor

We examine how noise interacts with encoding mechanisms of neuronal stimulus in a cold receptor. From ISI series and bifurcation diagrams it is shown that there are considerable differences in interval distributions and impulse patterns caused by purely deterministic simulations and noisy simulations. The ISI-distance can be used as an effective and powerful way to measure the noise effects on spike trains of the cold receptor quantitatively. It is also found that spike trains observed in cold receptors can be more strongly affected by noise for low temperatures than for high temperatures in some aspects; meanwhile, the spike train has greater variability with increasing noise intensity.     

Chaotic time series prediction and additive white Gaussian noise

Taken's delay embedding theorem states that a pseudo state-space can be reconstructed from a time series consisting of observations of a chaotic process. However, experimental observations are inevitably corrupted by measurement noise, which can be modelled as Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN). This Letter analyses time series prediction in the presence of AWGN using the triangle inequality and the mean of the Nakagami distribution. It is shown that using more delay coordinates than those used by a typical delay embedding can improve prediction accuracy, when the mean magnitude of the input vector dominates the mean magnitude of AWGN.     

Difference in nature of correlation between NASDAQ and BSE indices

We apply a recently developed wavelet based approach to characterize the correlation and scaling properties of non-stationary financial time series. This approach is local in nature and it makes use of wavelets from the Daubechies family for detrending purpose. The built-in variable windows in wavelet transform makes this procedure well suited for the non-stationary data. We analyze daily price of NASDAQ composite index for a period of 20 years, and BSE sensex index, over a period of 15 years. It is found that the long-range correlation, as well as fractal behavior for both the stock index values differ from each other significantly. Strong non-statistical long-range correlation is observed in BSE index, whose removal revealed a Gaussian random noise character for the corresponding fluctuation. The NASDAQ index, on the other hand, showed a multifractal behavior with long-range statistical correlation.     

Detecting Determinism in Firing Activities of Retinal Ganglion Cells during Response to Complex Stimuli

Complex stimuli are used to probe the response properties of the chicken＇s retinal ganglion cells （GCs）. The correlation dimension method and the nonlinear forecasting method are applied to detect the determinism in the firing activities of the retinal GCs during response to complex stimuli. The inter-spike interval （ISI） series and the first difference of the ISI （DISI） series are analysed. Two conclusions are drawn. Firstly, the first difference operation of the ISI series makes it comparatively easier for determinism detection in the firing activities of retinal GCs. Secondly, the nonlinear forecasting method is more efficient and reliable than the correlation dimension method for determinism detection.     

The 2006-2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction

We present an analysis of oil prices in USD and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up was amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also attempt to unravel the information hidden in the oil supply-demand data reported by two leading agencies, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). We suggest that the found increasing discrepancy between the EIA and IEA figures provides a measure of the estimation errors. Rather than a clear transition to a supply restricted regime, we interpret the discrepancy between the IEA and EIA as a signature of uncertainty, and there is no better fuel than uncertainty to promote speculation! Our post-crash analysis confirms that the oil peak in July 2008 occurred within the expected 80% confidence interval predicted with data available in our pre-crash analysis.     

Correlation measure to detect time series distances, whence economy globalization

An instantaneous time series distance is defined through the equal time correlation coefficient. The idea is applied to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) yearly increments of 21 rich countries between 1950 and 2005 in order to test the process of economic globalisation. Some data discussion is first presented to decide what (EKS, GK, or derived) GDP series should be studied. Distances are then calculated from the correlation coefficient values between pairs of series. The role of time averaging of the distances over finite size windows is discussed. Three network structures are next constructed based on the hierarchy of distances. It is shown that the mean distance between the most developed countries on several networks actually decreases in time, —which we consider as a proof of globalization. An empirical law is found for the evolution after 1990, similar to that found in flux creep. The optimal observation time window size is found ?15 years.     

Long-range correlations in heart rate variability during computer-mouse work under time pressure

The aim of this study was to investigate the influences of time pressure on long-range correlations in heart rate variability (HRV), the effects of relaxation on the cardiovascular regulation system and the advantages of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) over the conventional power spectral analysis in discriminating states of the cardiovascular systems under different levels of time pressure. Volunteer subjects (n=10, male/female=5/5) participated in a computer-mouse task consisting of five sessions, i.e. baseline session (BSS) which was free of time pressure, followed by sessions with 80% (SS80), 100% (SS100), 90% (SS90) and 150% (SS150) of the baseline time. Electrocardiogram (ECG) and task performance were recorded throughout the experiments. Two rest sessions before and after the computer-mouse work, i.e. RS1 and RS2, were also recorded as comparison. HRV series were subsequently analyzed by both conventional power spectral analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The long-term scaling exponent α₂ by DFA was significantly lower in SS80 than that in other sessions. It was also found that short-term release of time pressure had positive influences on the cardiovascular system, i.e. the α₂ in RS2 was significantly higher than that in SS80, SS100 and SS90. No significant differences were found between any two sessions by conventional power spectral analysis. Our results showed that DFA performed better in discriminating the states of cardiovascular autonomic modulation under time pressure than the conventional power spectral analysis.     

Comparison of detrending methods for fluctuation analysis

We examine several recently suggested methods for the detection of long-range correlations in data series based on similar ideas as the well-established Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). In particular, we present a detailed comparison between the regular DFA and two recently suggested methods: the Centered Moving Average (CMA) Method and a Modified Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MDFA). We find that CMA performs the same as DFA in long data with weak trends and is slightly superior to DFA in short data with weak trends. When comparing standard DFA to MDFA we observe that DFA performs slightly better in almost all examples we studied. We also discuss how several types of trends affect different types of DFA. For weak trends in the data, the new methods are comparable with DFA in these respects. However, if the functional form of the trend in data is not a-priori known, DFA remains the method of choice. Only a comparison of DFA results, using different detrending polynomials, yields full recognition of the trends. A comparison with independent methods is recommended for proving long-range correlations.     

Measuring time series regularity using nonlinear similarity-based sample entropy

Sampe Entropy (SampEn), a measure quantifying regularity and complexity, is believed to be an effective analyzing method of diverse settings that include both deterministic chaotic and stochastic processes, particularly operative in the analysis of physiological signals that involve relatively small amount of data. However, the similarity definition of vectors is based on Heaviside function, of which the boundary is discontinuous and hard, may cause some problems in the validity and accuracy of SampEn. Sigmoid function is a smoothed and continuous version of Heaviside function. To overcome the problems SampEn encountered, a modified SampEn (mSampEn) based on nonlinear Sigmoid function was proposed. The performance of mSampEn was tested on the independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) uniform random numbers, the MIX stochastic model, the Rossler map, and the Hennon map. The results showed that mSampEn was superior to SampEn in several aspects, including giving entropy definition in case of small parameters, better relative consistency, robust to noise, and more independence on record length when characterizing time series generated from either deterministic or stochastic system with different regularities.     

Spartan random processes in time series modeling

A Spartan random process (SRP) is used to estimate the correlation structure of time series and to predict (interpolate and extrapolate) the data values. SRPs are motivated from statistical physics, and they can be viewed as Ginzburg-Landau models. The temporal correlations of the SRP are modeled in terms of ‘interactions’ between the field values. Model parameter inference employs the computationally fast modified method of moments, which is based on matching sample energy moments with the respective stochastic constraints. The parameters thus inferred are then compared with those obtained by means of the maximum likelihood method. The performance of the Spartan predictor (SP) is investigated using real time series of the quarterly S&P 500 index. SP prediction errors are compared with those of the Kolmogorov-Wiener predictor. Two predictors, one of which is explicit, are derived and used for extrapolation. The performance of the predictors is similarly evaluated.