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Selecting most rigorous quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) approaches is of great importance in the development of robust and predictive models of chemical toxicity. To address this issue in a systematic way, we have formed an international virtual collaboratory consisting of six independent groups with shared interests in computational chemical toxicology. We have compiled an aqueous toxicity data set containing 983 unique compounds tested in the same laboratory over a decade against Tetrahymena pyriformis. A modeling set including 644 compounds was selected randomly from the original set and distributed to all groups that used their own QSAR tools for model development. The remaining 339 compounds in the original set (external set I) as well as 110 additional compounds (external set II) published recently by the same laboratory (after this computational study was already in progress) were used as two independent validation sets to assess the external predictive power of individual models. In total, our virtual collaboratory has developed 15 different types of QSAR models of aquatic toxicity for the training set. The internal prediction accuracy for the modeling set ranged from 0.76 to 0.93 as measured by the leave-one-out cross-validation correlation coefficient ( Q abs2). The prediction accuracy for the external validation sets I and II ranged from 0.71 to 0.85 (linear regression coefficient R absI2) and from 0.38 to 0.83 (linear regression coefficient R absII2), respectively. The use of an applicability domain threshold implemented in most models generally improved the external prediction accuracy but at the same time led to a decrease in chemical space coverage. Finally, several consensus models were developed by averaging the predicted aquatic toxicity for every compound using all 15 models, with or without taking into account their respective applicability domains. We find that consensus models afford higher prediction accuracy for the external validation data sets with the highest space coverage as compared to individual constituent models. Our studies prove the power of a collaborative and consensual approach to QSAR model development. The best validated models of aquatic toxicity developed by our collaboratory (both individual and consensus) can be used as reliable computational predictors of aquatic toxicity and are available from any of the participating laboratories.  相似文献   

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Abstract

The linear and non-linear relationships of acute toxicity (as determined on five aquatic non-vertebrates and humans) to molecular structure have been investigated on 38 structurally-diverse chemicals. The compounds selected are the organic chemicals from the 50 priority chemicals prescribed by the Multicentre Evaluation of In Vitro Cytotoxicity (MEIC) programme. The models used for the evaluations are the best combination of physico-chemical properties that could be obtained so far for each organism, using the partial least squares projection to latent structures (PLS) regression method and backpropagated neural networks (BPN). Non-linear models, whether derived from PLS regression or backpropagated neural networks, appear to be better than linear models for describing the relationship between acute toxicity and molecular structure. BPN models, in turn, outperform non-linear models obtained from PLS regression. The predictive power of BPN models for the crustacean test species are better than the model for humans (based on human lethal concentration). The physico-chemical properties found to be important to predict both human acute toxicity and the toxicity to aquatic non-vertebrates are the n?octanol water partition coefficient (Pow) and heat of formation (HF). Aside from the two former properties, the contribution of parameters that reflect size and electronic properties of the molecule to the model is also high, but the type of physico-chemical properties differs from one model to another. In all of the best BPN models, some of the principal component analysis (PCA) scores of the 13C-NMR spectrum, with electron withdrawing/accepting capacity (LUMO, HOMO and IP) are molecular size/volume (VDW or MS1) parameters are relevant. The chemical deviating from the QSAR models include non-pesticides as well as some of the pesticides tested. The latter type of chemical fits in a number of the QSAR models. Outliers for one species may be different from those of other test organisms.  相似文献   

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Relationship between topochemical indices and anti-HIV-1 (HTLV-III) inhibitory activity of 1-alkoxy-5-alkyl-6-(arylthio)uracils has been studied. Superadjacency, an adjacency-cum-distance-based, topochemical index and Wiener’s, a distance-based, topochemical index were calculated for a set of 36 1-alkoxy-5-alkyl-6-(arylthio)uracils. Resulting data were analyzed and suitable models were developed after identification of the active ranges. Subsequently, a biological activity was assigned to each of the compounds using these models and compared with the reported anti-HIV-1 activity. High accuracy of prediction was observed using these models. Statistical analysis revealed significance of the proposed models as well as a lack of correlation between the topochemical indices employed for the chosen data set.  相似文献   

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