Jackknife variance estimators of the location estimator in the one-way random-effects model

In a one-way random-effects model, we frequently estimate the variance components by the analysis-of-variance method and then, assuming the estimated values are true values of the variance components, we estimate the population mean. The conventional variance estimator for the estimate of the mean has a bias. This bias can become severe in contaminated data. We can reduce the bias by using the delta method. However, it still suffers from a large bias. We develop a jackknife variance estimator which is robust with respect to data contamination.This research was supported by the Korea Science and Engineering Foundation.     

Pure adaptive search in global optimization

Pure adaptive seach iteratively constructs a sequence of interior points uniformly distributed within the corresponding sequence of nested improving regions of the feasible space. That is, at any iteration, the next point in the sequence is uniformly distributed over the region of feasible space containing all points that are strictly superior in value to the previous points in the sequence. The complexity of this algorithm is measured by the expected number of iterations required to achieve a given accuracy of solution. We show that for global mathematical programs satisfying the Lipschitz condition, its complexity increases at mostlinearly in the dimension of the problem.This work was supported in part by NATO grant 0119/89.     

Sampling for Conditional Inference on Contingency Tables

We propose new sequential importance sampling methods for sampling contingency tables with given margins. The proposal for each method is based on asymptotic approximations to the number of tables with fixed margins. These methods generate tables that are very close to the uniform distribution. The tables, along with their importance weights, can be used to approximate the null distribution of test statistics and calculate the total number of tables. We apply the methods to a number of examples and demonstrate an improvement over other methods in a variety of real problems. Supplementary materials are available online.     

Thermodynamical approach to the traveling salesman problem: An efficient simulation algorithm

We present a Monte Carlo algorithm to find approximate solutions of the traveling salesman problem. The algorithm generates randomly the permutations of the stations of the traveling salesman trip, with probability depending on the length of the corresponding route. Reasoning by analogy with statistical thermodynamics, we use the probability given by the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution. Surprisingly enough, using this simple algorithm, one can get very close to the optimal solution of the problem or even find the true optimum. We demonstrate this on several examples.We conjecture that the analogy with thermodynamics can offer a new insight into optimization problems and can suggest efficient algorithms for solving them.The author acknowledges stimulating discussions with J. Piút concerning the main ideas of the present paper. The author is also indebted to P. Brunovský, J. erný, M. Hamala, . Peko, . Znám, and R. Zajac for useful comments.     

Improving Hit-and-Run for global optimization

Improving Hit-and-Run is a random search algorithm for global optimization that at each iteration generates a candidate point for improvement that is uniformly distributed along a randomly chosen direction within the feasible region. The candidate point is accepted as the next iterate if it offers an improvement over the current iterate. We show that for positive definite quadratic programs, the expected number of function evaluations needed to arbitrarily well approximate the optimal solution is at most O(n^5/2) wheren is the dimension of the problem. Improving Hit-and-Run when applied to global optimization problems can therefore be expected to converge polynomially fast as it approaches the global optimum.Paper presented at the II. IIASA-Workshop on Global Optimization, December 9–14, 1990, Sopron (Hungary).     

The Spectrum of the Independent Metropolis–Hastings Algorithm

In this paper we perform a spectral analysis for the kernel operator associated with the transition kernel for the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm that uses a fixed, location independent proposal distribution. Our main result is to establish the spectrum of the kernel operator T in the continuous case, thereby generalizing the results obtained by Liu in (Statist. Comput. 6, 113–119 1996) for the finite case.     

Approximations of Bayes decision problems: the epigraphical approach

Solving Bayesian decision problems usually requires approximation procedures, all leading to study the convergence of the approximating infima. This aspect is analysed in the context of epigraphical convergence of integral functionals, as minimal context for convergence of infima. The results, applied to the Monte Carlo importance sampling, give a necessary and sufficient condition for convergence of the approximations of Bayes decision problems and sufficient conditions for a large class of Bayesian statistical decision problems.     

Concave-Convex Adaptive Rejection Sampling

We describe a method for generating independent samples from univariate density functions using adaptive rejection sampling without the log-concavity requirement. The method makes use of the fact that many functions can be expressed as a sum of concave and convex functions. Using a concave-convex decomposition, we bound the log-density by separately bounding the concave and convex parts using piecewise linear functions. The upper bound can then be used as the proposal distribution in rejection sampling. We demonstrate the applicability of the concave-convex approach on a number of standard distributions and describe an application to the efficient construction of sequential Monte Carlo proposal distributions for inference over genealogical trees. Computer code for the proposed algorithms is available online.     

Estimating Mixture of Dirichlet Process Models

Abstract

Current Gibbs sampling schemes in mixture of Dirichlet process (MDP) models are restricted to using “conjugate” base measures that allow analytic evaluation of the transition probabilities when resampling configurations, or alternatively need to rely on approximate numeric evaluations of some transition probabilities. Implementation of Gibbs sampling in more general MDP models is an open and important problem because most applications call for the use of nonconjugate base measures. In this article we propose a conceptual framework for computational strategies. This framework provides a perspective on current methods, facilitates comparisons between them, and leads to several new methods that expand the scope of MDP models to nonconjugate situations. We discuss one in detail. The basic strategy is based on expanding the parameter vector, and is applicable for MDP models with arbitrary base measure and likelihood. Strategies are also presented for the important class of normal-normal MDP models and for problems with fixed or few hyperparameters. The proposed algorithms are easily implemented and illustrated with an application.     

Cut sharing for multistage stochastic linear programs with interstage dependency

Multistage stochastic programs with interstage independent random parameters have recourse functions that do not depend on the state of the system. Decomposition-based algorithms can exploit this structure by sharing cuts (outer-linearizations of the recourse function) among different scenario subproblems at the same stage. The ability to share cuts is necessary in practical implementations of algorithms that incorporate Monte Carlo sampling within the decomposition scheme. In this paper, we provide methodology for sharing cuts in decomposition algorithms for stochastic programs that satisfy certain interstage dependency models. These techniques enable sampling-based algorithms to handle a richer class of multistage problems, and may also be used to accelerate the convergence of exact decomposition algorithms. Research leading to this work was partially supported by the Department of Energy Contract DE-FG03-92ER25116-A002; the Office of Naval Research Contract N00014-89-J-1659; the National Science Foundation Grants ECS-8906260, DMS-8913089; and the Electric Power Research Institute Contract RP 8010-09, CSA-4O05335. This author's work was supported in part by the National Research Council under a Research Associateship at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California.     

Bayesian Inference in the Noncentral Student-t Model

This article takes up Bayesian inference in linear models with disturbances from a noncentral Student-t distribution. The distribution is useful when both long tails and asymmetry are features of the data. The distribution can be expressed as a location-scale mixture of normals with inverse weights distributed according to a chi-square distribution. The computations are performed using Gibbs sampling with data augmentation. An empirical application to Standard and Poor's stock returns indicates that posterior odds strongly favor a noncentral Student-t specification over its symmetric counterpart.     

多级运载火箭动态级间分离的Monte Carlo仿真

提出了研究多级运载火箭级间冷、热分离的计算公式．利用Monte Carlo仿真,考虑箭体分离时,采用远离正常设计值的参数去评估分离失败的风险．分析了各种扰动,如动态不平衡,剩余推力,分离机构引起的分离扰动,以及冷、热分离未对准的影响,得到分离箭体不会发生碰撞的条件．结果表明,当前设计满足分离要求．     

多元Copula-GARCH模型及其在金融风险分析上的应用

针对传统风险分析模型的不足,结合Copula技术和GARCH模型,提出了多元Copula-GARCH模型。指出该模型不仅可以捕捉金融市场间的非线性相关性,还可以得到更灵活的多元分布进而用于资产投资组合VaR分析。在详细探讨了基于Copula技术的资产投资组合的MonteCarlo仿真技术的基础上,运用具有不同边缘分布的多元Copula-GARCH模型,对上海股市进行了研究,结果证实了所提模型和方法的可行性和有效性。     

Automated Factor Slice Sampling

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms offer a very general approach for sampling from arbitrary distributions. However, designing and tuning MCMC algorithms for each new distribution can be challenging and time consuming. It is particularly difficult to create an efficient sampler when there is strong dependence among the variables in a multivariate distribution. We describe a two-pronged approach for constructing efficient, automated MCMC algorithms: (1) we propose the “factor slice sampler,” a generalization of the univariate slice sampler where we treat the selection of a coordinate basis (factors) as an additional tuning parameter, and (2) we develop an approach for automatically selecting tuning parameters to construct an efficient factor slice sampler. In addition to automating the factor slice sampler, our tuning approach also applies to the standard univariate slice samplers. We demonstrate the efficiency and general applicability of our automated MCMC algorithm with a number of illustrative examples. This article has online supplementary materials.     

Bayesian analysis of M/Er/1 and M/H_k/1 queues

This paper describes Bayesian inference and prediction for some M/G/1 queueing models. Cases when the service distribution is Erlang, hyperexponential and hyperexponential with a random number of components are considered. Monte Carlo and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used for estimation of quantities of interest assuming the queue is in equilibrium. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Multilevel sequential Monte Carlo: Mean square error bounds under verifiable conditions

In this article, we consider the multilevel sequential Monte Carlo (MLSMC) method of Beskos et al. (Stoch. Proc. Appl. [to appear]). This is a technique designed to approximate expectations w.r.t. probability laws associated to a discretization. For instance, in the context of inverse problems, where one discretizes the solution of a partial differential equation. The MLSMC approach is especially useful when independent, coupled sampling is not possible. Beskos et al. show that for MLSMC the computational effort to achieve a given error, can be less than independent sampling. In this article we significantly weaken the assumptions of Beskos et al., extending the proofs to non-compact state-spaces. The assumptions are based upon multiplicative drift conditions as in Kontoyiannis and Meyn (Electron. J. Probab. 10 [2005]: 61–123). The assumptions are verified for an example.