Robust parameter estimation with a small bias against heavy contamination

In this paper we consider robust parameter estimation based on a certain cross entropy and divergence. The robust estimate is defined as the minimizer of the empirically estimated cross entropy. It is shown that the robust estimate can be regarded as a kind of projection from the viewpoint of a Pythagorean relation based on the divergence. This property implies that the bias caused by outliers can become sufficiently small even in the case of heavy contamination. It is seen that the asymptotic variance of the robust estimator is naturally overweighted in proportion to the ratio of contamination. One may surmise that another form of cross entropy can present the same behavior as that discussed above. It can be proved under some conditions that no cross entropy can present the same behavior except for the cross entropy considered here and its monotone transformation.     

Dissolution point and isolation robustness: Robustness criteria for general cluster analysis methods

Two robustness criteria are presented that are applicable to general clustering methods. Robustness and stability in cluster analysis are not only data dependent, but even cluster dependent. Robustness is in the present paper defined as a property of not only the clustering method, but also of every individual cluster in a data set. The main principles are: (a) dissimilarity measurement of an original cluster with the most similar cluster in the induced clustering obtained by adding data points, (b) the dissolution point, which is an adaptation of the breakdown point concept to single clusters, (c) isolation robustness: given a clustering method, is it possible to join, by addition of g points, arbitrarily well separated clusters?Results are derived for k-means, k-medoids (k estimated by average silhouette width), trimmed k-means, mixture models (with and without noise component, with and without estimation of the number of clusters by BIC), single and complete linkage.     

Robust tests based on dual divergence estimators and saddlepoint approximations

This paper is devoted to robust hypothesis testing based on saddlepoint approximations in the framework of general parametric models. As is known, two main problems can arise when using classical tests. First, the models are approximations of reality and slight deviations from them can lead to unreliable results when using classical tests based on these models. Then, even if a model is correctly chosen, the classical tests are based on first order asymptotic theory. This can lead to inaccurate p-values when the sample size is moderate or small. To overcome these problems, robust tests based on dual divergence estimators and saddlepoint approximations, with good performances in small samples, are proposed.     

A contribution to multivariate L-moments: L-comoment matrices

Multivariate statistical analysis relies heavily on moment assumptions of second order and higher. With increasing interest in heavy-tailed distributions, however, it is desirable to describe dispersion, skewness, and kurtosis under merely first order moment assumptions. Here, the univariate L-moments of Hosking [L-moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 52 (1990) 105-124] are extended to “L-comoments” analogous to covariance. For certain models, the second order case yields correlational analysis coherent with classical correlation but also meaningful under just first moment assumptions. We develop properties and estimators for L-comoments, illustrate for several multivariate models, examine behavior of sample multivariate L-moments with heavy-tailed data, and discuss applications to financial risk analysis and regional frequency analysis.     

Influence functions and efficiencies of the canonical correlation and vector estimates based on scatter and shape matrices

In this paper, the influence functions and limiting distributions of the canonical correlations and coefficients based on affine equivariant scatter matrices are developed for elliptically symmetric distributions. General formulas for limiting variances and covariances of the canonical correlations and canonical vectors based on scatter matrices are obtained. Also the use of the so-called shape matrices in canonical analysis is investigated. The scatter and shape matrices based on the affine equivariant Sign Covariance Matrix as well as the Tyler's shape matrix serve as examples. Their finite sample and limiting efficiencies are compared to those of the Minimum Covariance Determinant estimators and S-estimator through theoretical and simulation studies. The theory is illustrated by an example.     

Modifying estimators of ordered positive parameters under the Stein loss

This paper treats the problem of estimating positive parameters restricted to a polyhedral convex cone which includes typical order restrictions, such as simple order, tree order and umbrella order restrictions. In this paper, two methods are used to show the improvement of order-preserving estimators over crude non-order-preserving estimators without any assumption on underlying distributions. One is to use Fenchel’s duality theorem, and then the superiority of the isotonic regression estimator is established under the general restriction to polyhedral convex cones. The use of the Abel identity is the other method, and we can derive a class of improved estimators which includes order-statistics-based estimators in the typical order restrictions. When the underlying distributions are scale families, the unbiased estimators and their order-restricted estimators are shown to be minimax. The minimaxity of the restrictedly generalized Bayes estimator against the prior over the restricted space is also demonstrated in the two dimensional case. Finally, some examples and multivariate extensions are given.     

Bias correction of cross-validation criterion based on Kullback-Leibler information under a general condition

This paper deals with the bias correction of the cross-validation (CV) criterion to estimate the predictive Kullback-Leibler information. A bias-corrected CV criterion is proposed by replacing the ordinary maximum likelihood estimator with the maximizer of the adjusted log-likelihood function. The adjustment is just slight and simple, but the improvement of the bias is remarkable. The bias of the ordinary CV criterion is O(n^-1), but that of the bias-corrected CV criterion is O(n^-2). We verify that our criterion has smaller bias than the AIC, TIC, EIC and the ordinary CV criterion by numerical experiments.     

Estimation of means of multivariate normal populations with order restriction

Multivariate isotonic regression theory plays a key role in the field of statistical inference under order restriction for vector valued parameters. Two cases of estimating multivariate normal means under order restricted set are considered. One case is that covariance matrices are known, the other one is that covariance matrices are unknown but are restricted by partial order. This paper shows that when covariance matrices are known, the estimator given by this paper always dominates unrestricted maximum likelihood estimator uniformly, and when covariance matrices are unknown, the plug-in estimator dominates unrestricted maximum likelihood estimator under the order restricted set of covariance matrices. The isotonic regression estimators in this paper are the generalizations of plug-in estimators in unitary case.     

Order restricted inference for sequential k-out-of-n systems

Sequential order statistics have been introduced to model sequential k-out-of-n systems which, as an extension of k-out-of-n systems, allow the failure of some components of the system to influence the remaining ones. Based on an independent sample of vectors of sequential order statistics, the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters of a sequential k-out-of-n system are derived under order restrictions. Special attention is paid to the simultaneous maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters and the distribution parameters for a flexible location-scale family. Furthermore, order restricted hypothesis tests are considered for making the decision whether the usual k-out-of-n model or the general sequential k-out-of-n model is appropriate for a given data.     

Inference under functional proportional and common principal component models

In many situations, when dealing with several populations with different covariance operators, equality of the operators is assumed. Usually, if this assumption does not hold, one estimates the covariance operator of each group separately, which leads to a large number of parameters. As in the multivariate setting, this is not satisfactory since the covariance operators may exhibit some common structure. In this paper, we discuss the extension to the functional setting of the common principal component model that has been widely studied when dealing with multivariate observations. Moreover, we also consider a proportional model in which the covariance operators are assumed to be equal up to a multiplicative constant. For both models, we present estimators of the unknown parameters and we obtain their asymptotic distribution. A test for equality against proportionality is also considered.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of Wishart mean matrices under Löwner order restrictions

For Wishart density functions, there remains a long-time question unsolved. That is whether there exists the closed-form MLEs of mean matrices over the partially Löwner ordering sets. In this note, we provide an affirmative answer by demonstrating a unified procedure on exactly how the closed-form MLEs are obtained for the simple ordering case. Under the Kullback-Leibler loss function, a property of obtained MLEs is further studied. Some applications of the obtained closed-form MLEs, including the comparison between our ML estimates and Calvin and Dykstra's [Maximum likelihood estimation of a set of covariance matrices under Löwner order restrictions with applications to balanced multivariate variance components models, Ann. Statist. 19 (1991) 850-869.] which obtained by iterative algorithm, are also made.     

Estimation of normal covariance matrices parametrized by irreducible symmetric cones under Stein's loss

In this paper the problem of estimating a covariance matrix parametrized by an irreducible symmetric cone in a decision-theoretic set-up is considered. By making use of some results developed in a theory of finite-dimensional Euclidean simple Jordan algebras, Bartlett's decomposition and an unbiased risk estimate formula for a general family of Wishart distributions on the irreducible symmetric cone are derived; these results lead to an extension of Stein's general technique for derivation of minimax estimators for a real normal covariance matrix. Specification of the results to the multivariate normal models with covariances which are parametrized by complex, quaternion, and Lorentz types gives minimax estimators for each model.     

Random change on a Lie group and mean glaucomatous projective shape change detection from stereo pair images

In this article we develop a nonparametric methodology for estimating the mean change for matched samples on a Lie group. We then notice that for k≥5, a manifold of projective shapes of k-ads in 3D has the structure of a 3k−15 dimensional Lie group that is equivariantly embedded in a Euclidean space, therefore testing for mean change amounts to a one sample test for extrinsic means on this Lie group. The Lie group technique leads to a large sample and a nonparametric bootstrap test for one population extrinsic mean on a projective shape space, as recently developed by Patrangenaru, Liu and Sughatadasa. On the other hand, in the absence of occlusions, the 3D projective shape of a spatial k-ad can be recovered from a stereo pair of images, thus allowing one to test for mean glaucomatous 3D projective shape change detection from standard stereo pair eye images.     

Testing the equality of several covariance matrices with fewer observations than the dimension

For normally distributed data from the k populations with m×m covariance matrices Σ₁,…,Σ_k, we test the hypothesis H:Σ₁=?=Σ_k vs the alternative A≠H when the number of observations N_i, i=1,…,k from each population are less than or equal to the dimension m, N_i≤m, i=1,…,k. Two tests are proposed and compared with two other tests proposed in the literature. These tests, however, do not require that N_i≤m, and thus can be used in all situations, including when the likelihood ratio test is available. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are given, and the power compared by simulations with other test statistics proposed in the literature. The proposed tests perform well and better in several cases than the other two tests available in the literature.     

On Stein’s lemma, dependent covariates and functional monotonicity in multi-dimensional modeling

Tracking the correct directions of monotonicity in multi-dimensional modeling plays an important role in interpreting functional associations. In the presence of multiple predictors, we provide empirical evidence that the observed monotone directions via parametric, nonparametric or semiparametric fit of commonly used multi-dimensional models may entirely violate the actual directions of monotonicity. This breakdown is caused primarily by the dependence structure of covariates, with negligible influence from the bias of function estimation. To examine the linkage between the dependent covariates and monotone directions, we first generalize Stein’s Lemma for random variables which are mutually independent Gaussian to two important cases: dependent Gaussian, and independent non-Gaussian. We show that in both two cases, there is an explicit one-to-one correspondence between the monotone directions of a multi-dimensional function and the signs of a deterministic surrogate vector. Moreover, we demonstrate that the second case can be extended to accommodate a class of dependent covariates. This generalization further enables us to develop a de-correlation transform for arbitrarily dependent covariates. The transformed covariates preserve modeling interpretability with little loss in modeling efficiency. The simplicity and effectiveness of the proposed method are illustrated via simulation studies and real data application.     

Principal points of a multivariate mixture distribution

A set of n-principal points of a distribution is defined as a set of n points that optimally represent the distribution in terms of mean squared distance. It provides an optimal n-point-approximation of the distribution. However, it is in general difficult to find a set of principal points of a multivariate distribution. Tarpey et al. [T. Tarpey, L. Li, B. Flury, Principal points and self-consistent points of elliptical distributions, Ann. Statist. 23 (1995) 103-112] established a theorem which states that any set of n-principal points of an elliptically symmetric distribution is in the linear subspace spanned by some principal eigenvectors of the covariance matrix. This theorem, called a “principal subspace theorem”, is a strong tool for the calculation of principal points. In practice, we often come across distributions consisting of several subgroups. Hence it is of interest to know whether the principal subspace theorem remains valid even under such complex distributions. In this paper, we define a multivariate location mixture model. A theorem is established that clarifies a linear subspace in which n-principal points exist.     

The one- and multi-sample problem for functional data with application to projective shape analysis

In this paper tests are derived for testing neighborhood hypotheses for the one- and multi-sample problem for functional data. Our methodology is used to generalize testing in projective shape analysis, which has traditionally involving data consisting of finite number of points, to the functional case. The one-sample test is applied to the problem of scene identification, in the context of the projective shape of a planar curve.     

Asymptotic normality of test statistics under alternative hypotheses

The aim of this paper is to present a framework for asymptotic analysis of likelihood ratio and minimum discrepancy test statistics. First order asymptotics are presented in a general framework under minimal regularity conditions and for not necessarily nested models. In particular, these asymptotics give sufficient and in a sense necessary conditions for asymptotic normality of test statistics under alternative hypotheses. Second order asymptotics, and their implications for bias corrections, are also discussed in a somewhat informal manner. As an example, asymptotics of test statistics in the analysis of covariance structures are discussed in detail.     

A robust and efficient adaptive reweighted estimator of multivariate location and scatter

This article proposes a reweighted estimator of multivariate location and scatter, with weights adaptively computed from the data. Its breakdown point and asymptotic behavior under elliptical distributions are established. This adaptive estimator is able to attain simultaneously the maximum possible breakdown point for affine equivariant estimators and full asymptotic efficiency at the multivariate normal distribution. For the special case of hard-rejection weights and the MCD as initial estimator, it is shown to be more efficient than its non-adaptive counterpart for a broad range of heavy-tailed elliptical distributions. A Monte Carlo study shows that the adaptive estimator is as robust as its non-adaptive relative for several types of bias-inducing contaminations, while it is remarkably more efficient under normality for sample sizes as small as 200.