霍尔特-温特模型在货运量季节性预测中的应用

为了提高货运量季节性预测的精度,应用了一种线性季节预测模型,霍尔特-温特模型。通过傅立叶周期分析确定季节影响和周期长度,利用迭代法寻找模型最优参数。将预测结果与其他三个常用季节预测模型:分组回归模型、可变季节预测模型和季节周期回归模型进行比较,结果表明霍尔特-温特模型预测精度最高。     

冠状动脉狭窄情况下的非牛顿血液流动和大分子传质

针对冠状动脉狭窄的情况,采用数值模拟方法求解了牛顿流体与非牛顿流体(幂次律流体和Casson流体)的定常与脉动的流场。在此基础上,求解了LDL(低密度脂肪蛋白)和Albumin(血清白蛋白)的浓度场。根据计算结果,详细讨论了壁面剪应力、非牛顿流效应、分子大小等因素对大分子传质的影响;并对牛顿流体与非牛顿流体、定常流动与脉动流动的大分子浓度场进行了比较,这些结果对于了解动脉硬化成因与流动特性和大分子传质的联系提供了较为丰富的信息。     

航线联盟下航空货运网络枢纽点选址问题研究

本文研究航空联盟下航空货运网络的枢纽点选址问题(HLP),基于枢纽点的数量及位置随机与容量的限制。首先引入航线联盟选择概率函数,确定不同航段上的航线自营运输或外包运输的概率;其次根据选址中心法则,以网络总成本最小化为目标,建立枢纽点选址模型;再次采用改进的免疫混沌遗传算法求解模型;最后,以顺丰航空公司案例进行实例分析。结果表明:1)本文改进的算法较免疫混沌遗传算法并与免疫遗传算法及CPLEX结果对比,发现本文设计的算法有较强的收敛性和计算速度,且计算结果与CPLEX求解器求解结果相差不大;2)枢纽点数量不确定时,枢纽点的位置多集中在东部城市;3)航空公司选择联盟环境可以大大降低运营成本,航空公司为提高自身利润,应考虑加入联盟,从而降低自身成本。     

随机模拟在锁具互开问题研究中的应用

崔文泉，李娟．随机模拟在锁具互开问题研究中的应用．数理统计与管理，１９９８，１７（３），１１～１５．本文针对１９９４年全国大学生数学模型竞赛Ｂ题中锁具随机装箱引起顾客抱怨的程度分析，提出一种计算机随机模拟的算法，算法实现简单、便于推广     

Methods of Analysis of Discrete - Continuous Systems Vibrations and Their Application to Railway Transport Problems

In the paper some aspects of the interaction between the current collector and the overhead equipment have been presented. A model of the system that consists of a discrete subsystem modelling the pantograph and a continuous subsystem modelling the contact wire has been introduced. The dynamic interaction between the discrete oscillator of two degrees of freedom and a continuous string has been studied. At the contact point of the pantograph and the wire a varying component of force appears. It is the source of waves that propagate along the contact wire. There are also two standing sources of wave generation, i.e. varying forces at the points of catenary supports. General results have been illustrated by numerical examples in which the effect of wave propagation is confirmed. (© 2009 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Quantum Transport in Degenerate Systems

Transport in nonequilibrium degenerate quantum systems is investigated. The transfer rate depends on the parameters of the system. In this paper we investigate the dependence of the flow (transfer rate) on the angle between “bright” vectors (which define the interaction of the system with the environment). We show that in some approximation for the system under investigation the flow is proportional to the cosine squared of the angle between the “bright” vectors. Earlier the author has shown that in this degenerate quantum system excitation of nondecaying quantum “dark” states is possible; moreover, the effectiveness of this process is proportional to the sine squared of the angle between the “bright” vectors (this phenomenon was discussed as a possible model of excitation of quantum coherence in quantum photosynthesis). Thus quantum transport and excitation of dark states are competing processes; “dark” states can be considered as a result of leakage of quantum states in a quantum thermodynamic machine which performs the quantum transport.     

中心城市货运市场建设项目的系统评价研究

本文通过对公路货运市场的生产和经营状况、所处的经营环境以及货运市场中的运力和货运需求进行了分析 ,提出了货运市场建设项目的评价指标体系 ,并且利用系统评价模型进行评价 ,得出了满意的结果     

Systems Analysis and the Computer

The words ‘systems analysis’ are used in at least two senses in the literature. Whilst the general nature of the topic is well understood in the O.R. community, the nature of the term as used by computer scientists is less familiar. In this paper, the nature of systems analysis as it relates to computer-based systems is examined from the point of view that the computer system is an automaton embedded in a human system, and some facets of this are explored. It is concluded that O.R. analysts and computer analysts have things to learn from each other and that this ought to be reflected in their education. The important role played by change in the design of systems is also highlighted, and it is concluded that, whilst the application of techniques developed in the ‘artificial intelligence’ field have considerable relevance to constructing automata able to adapt to change in the environment, study of the human factors affecting the overall systems within which the automata are embedded has an even more important role.     

Real-Time Simulation of Elastic Multibody Systems with Application in Vehicle Dynamics

Real-time simulation models are widely used for vehicle development, usually built up as rigid multibody systems. However, since lightweight structures are commonly used, body deformation is no longer negligible and rigid multibody simulations may be inaccurate. This work presents a real-time capable full vehicle model with a flexible car body, derived from a finite element model, whose performance has been improved by model order reduction. (© 2015 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

中国货运量与GDP及运输结构动态关系研究

中国货运量与GDP及运输结构的关系对于中国物流的可持续发展极为重要.选取1955-2011年中国货运量、GDP及公路货运量所占货运量比重的时间序列数据,运用VAR,模型研究中国货运量与GDP及运输结构的动态关系.结果表明:从长期来看,货运量、GDP及运输结构三者存在长期均衡关系;Granger因果关系表明:货运量和运输结构是影响GDP的原因;脉冲函数表明:运输结构对货运量的影响是负向的,而GDP对货运量的影响是正向的.