Expert Systems for University Admissions

This paper describes the construction of an expert system to help the admissions tutor for a university degree in business and management which receives some 2000 applications for entry each year, using the SAGE shell. What originally began as a ‘demonstrator project’ is shown to be of practical value, in terms of both producing a usable expert system and clarifying and questioning the selection criteria used by the admissions tutor. A particular conclusion emerging from this work which may be relevant to many expert systems applications is that ethical and practical considerations dictated that some questions involving judgement could not be delegated by the admissions tutor to the clerical staff. It thus became necessary to develop two versions of the expert system, one a full ‘admissions-tutor system’, the other a more limited version for day-to-day use.     

Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

Using an Expert System to Monitor an Automatic Stock Control System

The theory of the control of stock is well understood, and a large number of firms use automatic stock control and ordering techniques as a major part of their inventory control systems. However, the effectiveness of such automatic stock control systems depends on the correct selection of system parameters for each item in the inventory and on the accurate reporting of information. It is not unusual for errors to be made in both the selection of parameters and the entry of data, and regular failures of either can cause severe problems in stock control. It is generally difficult for a human stock controller to discover errors quickly because of the large number of items that is usually found in a company inventory. This paper describes the use of an expert system to examine stock records and diagnose anomalies in the data provided or parameters applied to individual items in a stock control system. The expert system ‘reasons’ from symptoms such as reports from the forecasting system or high stock levels, to defects in the stock model used or data-collection processes, and from there to possible remedial action. Results are presented for runs of the expert system on a simulated stock control system.     

Experiences with Using Expert Systems in O.R.

Increased awareness of expert systems technology, and the availability of relevant software, has tempted many O.R. groups to investigate the expert systems approach. This paper considers the strategies open to O.R. groups interested in employing expert systems, reviews some of the relevant software, and discusses what those O.R. groups who have already investigated the use of expert systems methods are actually doing.Some of the authors' experience of developing expert systems is discussed. The development of an expert system that helps bankers analyse company accounts is presented. The use of expert system methods as vehicles for decision analysis, and the possibilities for producing systems that act as O.R. consultants are also discussed.     

Validating an Expert Support System for Tender Enquiry Evaluation: A Case Study

An expert system was developed as a support tool for a large electro-mechanical engineering company. The system was developed to assist in tender enquiry evaluation and the bid versus no bid decision. It was developed using repertory grid techniques based on the expertise of two senior managers. The importance of the system's validation is stressed and an appropriate formal validation framework developed. The results from the validation study suggest that the system provides an appropriate model of the organization's consensual business perspective regarding the bid versus no bid decision. Furthermore, the study drew attention to some dissenting views amongst the organization's senior management which the management believed to be helpful in clarifying their understanding of the issues affecting the bid versus no bid decision.     

Teaching communication in an MBA operations research/management science course

This paper discusses the inclusion of a writing requirement within a first-year Operations Research/Management Science (OR) course of a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) curriculum. The inclusion of a writing requirement addresses the importance of communication in OR. It is the authors’ supposition that many of the recent criticisms of OR teaching have their roots in poor OR communication. Although OR faculty members can well argue relative values, we have failed to adequately prepare our students to communicate relevant insights from OR studies. The integration of a writing requirement, consisting of short executive summary-style reports and a major term project, within an MBA OR course can do much in promoting further OR study and OR work. This paper describes our experience in instituting a writing requirement within a first-year MBA course in OR.     

A Probabilistic Expert System for Automatic Musical Accompaniment

This article presents methodology that allows a computer to play the role of musical accompanist in a nonimprovised musical composition for soloist and accompaniment. The modeling of the accompaniment incorporates a number of distinct knowledge sources including timing information extracted in real-time from the soloist's acoustic signal, an understanding of the soloist's interpretation learned from rehearsals, and prior knowledge that guides the accompaniment toward musically plausible renditions. The solo and accompaniment parts are represented collectively as a large number of Gaussian random variables with a specified conditional independence structure—a Bayesian belief network. Within this framework a principled and computationally feasible method for generating real-time accompaniment is presented that incorporates the relevant knowledge sources. The EM algorithm is used to adapt the accompaniment to the soloist's interpretation through a series of rehearsals. A demonstration is provided from J.S. Bach's Cantata 12.     

Experiences with Developing Management Sciences/Operational Research in Nigeria

An on-going cooperative linkage scheme between the University of Nigeria, Nsukka and Trinity College Dublin is described. The broad objective of the scheme is to develop M.S./O.R. at Nsukka. The scheme focuses on a research study of methods of processing, storing and marketing yams and cassava at farm and village level in Nigeria.     

Median Stable Matching for College Admissions

We give a simple and concise proof that so-called generalized median stable matchings are well-defined for college admissions problems. Furthermore, we discuss the fairness properties of median stable matchings and conclude with two illustrative examples of college admissions markets, the lattices of stable matchings, and the corresponding generalized median stable matchings.     

信度理论的扩张与一个审定损害的专家系统

通过使用集合的基本概率定义出上限、下限概率,形成信度;通过隶属函数定义模糊集合的包含度、相交度,使信度理论在模糊集合得以扩张,得到了利用不确定性及模糊性的一个合理的推理方法。在此基础上,采AND/OR/COMB树推理开发了一个审定损害的专家系统。     

Multiple-Attribute-Based Expert Support System for Customer/Order Evaluation

Sales and marketing people routinely evaluate and rank their customers to develop a marketing strategy and plan of action for utilizing available sales resources. Performing this evaluation informally makes it difficult to take into account all the significant customer attributes in a consistent and objective manner. In this paper an approach based on multiple attributes is developed to assist in evaluating customer performance. This approach is coded primarily in an expert system shell, which is run on a personal computer. The expert system shell was chosen over other software by the marketing people because they preferred its user-friendly capabilities. This system is being used by the Tin Mill Products Marketing office of Bethlehem Steel and is being considered for use by other product-line marketing offices within Bethlehem.     

Decision Support Systems for University Undergraduate Admissions

Undergraduate admissions to British universities are computerized through a central clearing house, UCCA. A by-product of this arrangement is that information on each applicant is easily available in computer-readable form. The paper describes a system used to administer undergraduate applications, forecast enrolment and do market analysis which was implemented in the Faculty of Social Sciences of Southampton University.     

Development of an Expert System: Translating Higher-Level Decisions into Lower-Level Aircraft Flights

This note describes two phases in the development of an expert system that translates European-wide directives into individual flight orders. This expert system was built for a military computer simulation, but parts of the logic can apply — and many of the illustrations in the text have been tailored — to creating and organizing commercial flights. The first phase of the development — a proof of principle expert system — emulated the logical deductions of an air traffic control supervisor or a flight planner. The second phase of development led to a working prototype decision support system that employed more mathematical comparisons of aircraft attributes than logical deductions.     

A flexible approach to ranking with an application to MBA Programs

We develop a model for flexibly ranking multi-dimensional alternatives/units into preference classes via Mixed Integer Programming. We consider a linear aggregation model, but allow the criterion weights to vary within pre-specified ranges. This allows the individual alternatives/units to play to their strengths. We illustrate the use of the model by considering the Financial Times Global MBA Program rankings and discuss the implications. We argue that in many applications neither the data nor the weights or the aggregation model itself is precise enough to warrant a complete ranking, providing an argument for sorting or what we call flexible ranking.     

Some Experiences in Planning a Distribution System

This paper describes the background against which the Operational Research Group in a large retail organisation became involved in (physical) ‘distribution’.The various stages of involvement are described and some examples of requests for assistance are discussed. The final section of the paper attempts to draw from the experiences some conclusions on how Operational Research should be conducted.     

An Expert System Framework for Economic Evaluation of Machining Operation Planning

Recognising the importance of combining manufacturing and management systems for machining operation planning, this paper presents a new methodology for the evaluation of economic aspects in an operation plan. To ensure that the quality of machined parts satisfies the required specifications, the manufacturing system acts as an alternative generator that provides meaningful and practical plans. Through cost analysis, the variable, fixed, and total costs associated with the machining operation are quantitatively determined. The management system, which functions as an evaluation mechanism, then selects the optimal plan based on the defined goal. The proposed methodology has been applied in the framework design of an expert system. The program establishes a sequence of machining operation planning and searches for the optimal plan. This optimal plan integrates considerations from both managers and production engineers, and balances their needs for efficient machining of a quality product.     

The Case for Open Admissions: A Status Report

Accountability figures prominently in the higher education policy discourse these days. Critics of higher education (for instance, members of the Spellings Commission) argue that colleges and universities need to be more “transparent” to justify support by taxpayers, payers of tuition, and other funders. To better inform prospective students and other stakeholders, we are being asked to go public about our programs, educational processes, and results.     

智能的统计软件──统计专家系统

计算统计是数理统计的一个重要分支，而统计专家系统是计算统计中一极热门的话题。本文简介了统计专家系统的概念及发展过程，并根据本人所作的工作介绍了统计专家系统的基本结构和构造过程等。最后对未来的统计专家系统提出了一点设想。