基于随机波动率模型的上证50ETF期权定价研究

传统上,期权定价主要基于Black-Scholes (B-S)模型。但B-S模型不能描述时变波动率以及解释"波动率微笑"现象,导致期权定价存在较大的误差。随机波动率模型克服了B-S模型的这些缺陷,能够合理地刻画波动率动态性和波动率微笑。基于此,本文考虑随机波动率模型下的期权定价问题,并针对我国上证50ETF期权进行实证分析。为了解决定价模型的参数估计问题,采用上证50ETF及其期权价格数据,建立两步法对定价模型的参数进行估计。该估计方法保证了定价模型在客观与风险中性测度下的一致性。采用2016年1月到2017年10月的上证50ETF期权价格数据为研究样本,对随机波动率模型进行了实证检验。结果表明,无论是在样本内还是样本外,随机波动率模型相比传统的常数波动率B-S模型都能够获得明显更为精确和稳定的定价结果,B-S模型的定价误差总体偏大且呈现较高波动,凸显了随机波动率对于期权定价的重要性。另外,随机波动率模型对于短期实值期权的定价相比对于其它期权的定价要更精确。     

基于外汇汇率的期权定价及其实证分析

在外汇汇率服从连续扩散过程模型下,研究了外汇汇率的几何平均亚式期权和附有汇率范围的示性函数的新型幂期权定价问题。在实证分析中,通过美元/人民币汇率的真实数据来计算以上所研究期权的价格,并和Black-Scholes模型下的期权定价进行比较,同时对相关期权的隐含波动率进行了分析。     

投资者情绪对上证50ETF隐含分布偏度影响的实证研究

从期权价格中提取信息的传统做法是借助于隐含波动率,然而,通过与标的资产的历史数据对比发现,隐含波动率并不能比历史波动率提供更多的市场预期信息。考虑隐含波动率是利用Black-Scholes模型所导出,意味着模型设定风险也可能会影响到结论的客观性与准确性。为了克服传统方法的不足,本文尝试从一种无模型的视角,利用矩方法展开相关研究。该方法不依赖于任何模型和假设,避免了对定价核以及中性概率分布的讨论,直接由期权价格得到股票收益的隐含分布,利用状态价格来确定市场预期收益与风险厌恶。在分布曲线足够光滑(可导)的条件下,通过对行权价格求导得到标的资产未来收益的隐含风险中性概率密度,并测算出隐含分布的高阶矩特征。     

多尺度亚式期权定价模型的奇摄动解

讨论了一类多尺度亚式期权定价随机波动率模型问题,其中随机波动率采用了具有快慢变换的随机波动率模型.通过Feynman-Kac公式,得到了风险资产期权价格所满足的相应的Black-Scholes方程,运用奇摄动渐近展开方法,得到了期权定价方程的渐近解,并得到其一致有效估计.     

基于GARCH模型考虑股本稀释作用的权证定价

考虑到认购权证对股本有稀释作用,把对认购权证定价转化为一个看涨期权的定价,运用GARCH模型得出看涨期权标的资产波动率的近似经验分布,根据期权定价的Black-Scholes公式,得出认购权证价格的近似分布.     

不确定环境下的欧式期权定价

正1引言Black-Scholes~([1])(B-S)期权定价模型是金融市场上为人所熟知的研究期权价格的经典模型.然而,实证研究表明B-S模型暴露出一些与市场实际信息相违背的现象,其中有两点引起市场的广泛关注.第一点是基础资产,如股票的价格与B-S假设的正态分布相比表现的是偏峰厚尾的特性;其次是波动率曲线是敲定价格的凸曲线,即波动率微笑.为了在B-S模型中引入偏峰厚尾特性,一些模型和理论,如分数布朗运动及一些广义双曲模型~([2,3])描述基础资产的价格.另一方面,为了解释波动率微笑,一些自回归异方差(ARCH)~([4])、常弹性模型(CEV)~([5])等期权定价理论被相继提出.Merton~([6])为了同时考虑基础资产的偏     

期权隐含投资者情绪与股市波动率

研究表明,期权价格中蕴含着市场前瞻性的信息,其有助于预测未来股市波动率.特别地,从期权价格中提取的隐含投资者情绪相比从股市提取的投资者情绪包含更多的信息(前瞻信息),对股市波动性分析具有重要的参考价值.鉴于此,文章采用上证50ETF期权价格数据,利用GJR-GARCH-FHS模型估计经验定价核,通过将其分解为新古典成分和行为成分(情绪),从中提取出期权隐含投资者情绪.进一步,构建波动率指标和预测回归模型,实证分析期权隐含投资者情绪与股市波动率的关系以及期权隐含投资者情绪对股市波动率的预测作用.实证结果表明:期权隐含投资者情绪在一定程度上对股市波动率具有预测作用;当期和滞后一期的期权隐含投资者情绪都对股市波动率产生一定的正向影响,且当期影响更大;历史的股市波动率对当期股市波动率也存在显著的正向影响;当期和滞后一期的期权隐含投资者情绪对股市波动率都具有较强的预测能力,并能显著提高对股市波动率的预测精度.     

基于GARCH-GH模型的上证50ETF期权定价研究

上证50ETF期权是中国推出的首支股票期权.为描述上证50ETF收益率偏态、尖峰、时变波动率等特征,结合GARCH模型和广义双曲(Generalized Hyperbolic,GH)分布两方面的优势,建立GARCH-GH模型为上证50ETF期权定价.在等价鞅测度下,利用蒙特卡罗方法估计上证50ETF欧式认购期权价格.实证表明,相比较Black-Scholes模型和GARCH-Gaussian模型,GARCH-GH模型得到的结果更接近于上证50ETF期权的实际价格,其定价误差最小.     

基于平均证券价格的衍生品期权定价公式

为了更好的平滑证券价格在市场中波动的不确定性,本文建立了基于平均证券价格的证券价格模型,并在此基础上计算出了欧式看涨期权价格公式。对比传统的Black-Scholes定价公式,新模型能够更好的适应市场的波动,对期权定价方法的拓展具有重要的作用。     

分数布朗运动驱动的幂型期权定价模型研究

股价运动分形特征的发现,说明布朗运动作为期权定价模型的初始假定存在缺陷.本文假定标的资产价格服从几何分数布朗运动,利用分数风险中性测度下的拟鞅(quasi-martingale)定价方法重新求解分数Black-Scholes模型,进而对幂型期权进行定价.结果表明,幂型期权结果包含了Black-Scholes公式和平方期权结果,且相比标准期权价格,分数期权价格要同时取决于到期日和Hurst参数H.     

快速均值回归随机波动率模型参数估计及应用

基于快速均值回归随机波动率模型, 研究双限期权的定价问题, 同时推导了考虑均值回归随机波动率的双限期权的定价公式。 根据金融市场中SPDR S&P 500 ETF期权的隐含波动率数据和标的资产的历史收益数据, 对快速均值回归随机波动率模型中的两个重要参数进行估计。 利用估计得到的参数以及定价公式, 对双限期权价格做了数值模拟。 数值模拟结果发现, 考虑了随机波动率之后双限期权的价格在标的资产价格偏高的时候会小于基于常数波动率模型的期权价格。     

A delayed stochastic volatility correction to the constant elasticity of variance model

The Black-Scholes model does not account non-Markovian property and volatility smile or skew although asset price might depend on the past movement of the asset price and real market data can find a non-flat structure of the implied volatility surface. So, in this paper, we formulate an underlying asset model by adding a delayed structure to the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model that is one of renowned alternative models resolving the geometric issue. However, it is still one factor volatility model which usually does not capture full dynamics of the volatility showing discrepancy between its predicted price and market price for certain range of options. Based on this observation we combine a stochastic volatility factor with the delayed CEV structure and develop a delayed hybrid model of stochastic and local volatilities. Using both a martingale approach and a singular perturbation method, we demonstrate the delayed CEV correction effects on the European vanilla option price under this hybrid volatility model as a direct extension of our previous work [12].     

An inverse problem of determining the implied volatility in option pricing

In the Black-Scholes world there is the important quantity of volatility which cannot be observed directly but has a major impact on the option value. In practice, traders usually work with what is known as implied volatility which is implied by option prices observed in the market. In this paper, we use an optimal control framework to discuss an inverse problem of determining the implied volatility when the average option premium, namely the average value of option premium corresponding with a fixed strike price and all possible maturities from the current time to a chosen future time, is known. The issue is converted into a terminal control problem by Green function method. The existence and uniqueness of the minimum of the control functional are addressed by the optimal control method, and the necessary condition which must be satisfied by the minimum is also given. The results obtained in the paper may be useful for those who engage in risk management or volatility trading.     

A GARCH option pricing model with α-stable innovations

We develop an option pricing model which is based on a GARCH asset return process with α-stable innovations with truncated tails. The approach utilizes a canonic martingale measure as pricing measure which provides the possibility of a model calibration to market prices. The GARCH-stable option pricing model allows the explanation of some well-known anomalies in empirical data as volatility clustering and heavy tailedness of the return distribution. Finally, the results of Monte Carlo simulations concerning the option price and the implied volatility with respect to different strike and maturity levels are presented.     

New approach and analysis of the generalized constant elasticity of variance model

Generally, it is well known that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model fails to capture the empirical results verifying that the implied volatility of equity options displays smile and skew curves at the same time. In this study, to overcome the limitation of the CEV model, we introduce a new model, which is a generalization of the CEV model, and show that it can capture the smile and skew effects of implied volatility. Using an asymptotic analysis for two small parameters that determine the volatility shape, we obtain approximated solutions for option prices in the extended model. In addition, we demonstrate the stability of the solution for the expansion of the option price. Furthermore, we show the convergence rate of the solutions in Monte-Carlo simulation and compare our model with the CEV, Heston, and other extended stochastic volatility models to verify its flexibility and efficiency compared with these other models when fitting option data from the S&P 500 index.     

Numerical solution of European call option with dividends and variable volatility

In this paper, the effect of strike price, interest rate, dividends and maturities on European call option with dividends is discussed. The volatility for the data of ONGC Ltd. listed in National Stock Exchange, India, during 03-01-2000 to 30-03-2009 is forecasted by GJR-GARCH method. The option price and Greeks are determined by solving modified Black-Scholes partial differential equation by adjusting forecasted volatility at each grid point of finite difference method. It is observed that call option premium decreases as strike price and dividend increases but it increases as rate of interest and time of maturities increases. Hence call option is more profitable for a long maturity, high interest rate and low dividend.     

The pricing of derivatives on assets with quadratic volatility

The basic model of financial economics is the Samuelson model of geometric Brownian motion because of the celebrated Black-Scholes formula for pricing the call option. The asset's volatility is a linear function of the asset value and the model guarantees positive asset prices. In this paper, it is shown that the pricing partial differential equation can be solved for level-dependent volatility which is a quadratic polynomial. If zero is attainable, both absorption and negative asset values are possible. Explicit formulae are derived for the call option: a generalization of the Black-Scholes formula for an asset whose volatiliy is affine, the formula for the Bachelier model with constant volatility, and new formulae in the case of quadratic volatility. The implied Black-Scholes volatilities of the Bachelier and the affine model are frowns, the quadratic specifications imply smiles.     

基于涨跌幅限制的双边截断正态分布期权定价模型

标准Black Scholes期权定价公式假设股票价格服从对数正态分布,没有考虑股票价格涨跌幅的限制带来的影响.放松该假设条件,假设股票价格服从双边截断对数正态分布,考虑中国股票市场的涨跌幅限制,得到一个新的B-S期权定价公式来表达股价行为.双边截断正态分布假设下收益率的波动率要要比正态分布下的波动率小,所以新B-S公式计算出的期权价格就会比标准B-S公式计算出的价格低.