Routing and scheduling in a liquefied natural gas shipping problem with inventory and berth constraints

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that has been transformed to liquid form for the purpose of transportation, which is mainly done by specially built LNG vessels travelling from the production site to the consumers. We describe a real-life ship routing and scheduling problem from the LNG business, with both inventory and berth capacity constraints at the liquefaction port. We propose a solution method where the routing and scheduling decisions are decomposed. The routing decisions consist of deciding which vessels should service which cargoes and in what sequence. The scheduling decisions are then to decide when to start servicing the cargoes while satisfying inventory and berth capacity constraints. The proposed solution method has been tested on several problem instances based on the real-life problem. The results show that the proposed solution method is well suited to solve this LNG shipping problem.     

Large neighborhood search for LNG inventory routing

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is steadily becoming a common mode for commercializing natural gas. Due to the capital intensive nature of LNG projects, the optimal design of LNG supply chains is extremely important from a profitability perspective. Motivated by the need for a model that can assist in the design analysis of LNG supply chains, we address an LNG inventory routing problem where optimized ship schedules have to be developed for an LNG project. In this paper, we present an arc-flow formulation based on the MIP model of Song and Furman (Comput. Oper. Res., 2010). We also present a set of construction and improvement heuristics to solve this model efficiently. The heuristics are evaluated based on a set of realistic test instances that are very large relative to the problem instances seen in recent literature related to this problem. Extensive computational results indicate that the proposed methods are computationally efficient in finding optimal or near optimal solutions and are substantially faster than state-of-the-art commercial optimization software.     

An Integrated Market for Electricity and Natural Gas Systems with Stochastic Power Producers

In energy systems with high shares of weather-driven renewable power sources, gas-fired power plants can serve as a back-up technology to ensure security of supply and provide short-term flexibility. Therefore, a tighter coordination between electricity and natural gas networks is foreseen. In this work, we examine different levels of coordination in terms of system integration and time coupling of trading floors. We propose an integrated operational model for electricity and natural gas systems under uncertain power supply by applying two-stage stochastic programming. This formulation co-optimizes day-ahead and real-time dispatch of both energy systems and aims at minimizing the total expected cost. Additionally, two deterministic models, one of an integrated energy system and one that treats the two systems independently, are presented. We utilize a formulation that considers the linepack of the natural gas system, while it results in a tractable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model. Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model in accommodating high shares of renewables and the importance of proper natural gas system modeling in short-term operations to reveal valuable flexibility of the natural gas system. Moreover, we identify the coordination parameters between the two markets and show their impact on the system’s operation and dispatch.     

Application of planning models in the agri-food supply chain: A review

The supply chain of agricultural products has received a great deal of attention lately due to issues related to public health. Something that has become apparent is that in the near future the design and operation of agricultural supply chains will be subject to more stringent regulations and closer monitoring, in particular those for products destined for human consumption (agri-foods). This implies that the traditional supply chain practices may be subject to revision and change. One of the aspects that may be the subject of considerable scrutiny is the planning activities performed along the supply chains of agricultural products. In this paper, we review the main contributions in the field of production and distribution planning for agri-foods based on agricultural crops. We focus particularly on those models that have been successfully implemented. The models are classified according to relevant features, such as the optimization approaches used, the type of crops modeled and the scope of the plans, among many others. Through our analysis of the current state of the research, we diagnose some of the future requirements for modeling the supply chain of agri-foods.     

Contract design and supply chain coordination in the electricity industry

In this article we propose a model of the supply chain in electricity markets with multiple generators and retailers and considering several market structures. We analyze how market design interacts with the different types of contract and market structure to affect the coordination between the different firms and the performance of the supply chain as a whole. We compare the implications on supply chain coordination and on the players’ profitability of two different market structures: a pool based market vs. bilateral contracts, taking into consideration the relationship between futures and spot markets. Furthermore, we analyze the use of contracts for differences and two-part-tariffs as tools for supply chain coordination. We have concluded that there are multiple equilibria in the supply chain contracts and structure and that the two-part tariff is the best contract to reduce double marginalization and increase efficiency in the management of the supply chain.     

Towards an auction-driven gas supply: a simulation-based optimization framework for utilities

A platform for the study of the whole transmission problem (arrival of ships, regasification, transportation and distribution) faced by gas utilities companies is proposed. The main objective of this research is to develop a platform that includes the analysis of the new capacity auctions (and not the traditional commodity auctions) that will govern the supply chain in the near future. A simulation-optimization approach has been used to favour the more realistic abstraction of the system. The discrete-event model includes a genetic algorithm to reach the solution in a satisfactory short time, a requisite in auction markets. Design and optimization studies for the utilities are addressed using the platform, which has been validated with real data for one of the main zones in the Spanish market.     

Quantitative models for sustainable supply chain management: Developments and directions

Sustainability, the consideration of environmental factors and social aspects, in supply chain management (SCM) has become a highly relevant topic for researchers and practitioners. The application of operations research methods and related models, i.e. formal modeling, for closed-loop SCM and reverse logistics has been effectively reviewed in previously published research. This situation is in contrast to the understanding and review of mathematical models that focus on environmental or social factors in forward supply chains (SC), which has seen less investigation. To evaluate developments and directions of this research area, this paper provides a content analysis of 134 carefully identified papers on quantitative, formal models that address sustainability aspects in the forward SC. It was found that a preponderance of the publications and models appeared in a limited set of six journals, and most were analytically based with a focus on multiple criteria decision making. The tools most often used comprise the analytical hierarchy process or its close relative, the analytical network process, as well as life cycle analysis. Conclusions are drawn showing that numerous possibilities and insights can be gained from expanding the types of tools and factors considered in formal modeling efforts.     

Multi-reservoir production optimization

When a large oil or gas field is produced, several reservoirs often share the same processing facility. This facility is typically capable of processing only a limited amount of commodities per unit of time. In order to satisfy these processing limitations, the production needs to be choked, i.e., scaled down by a suitable choke factor. A production strategy is defined as a vector valued function defined for all points of time representing the choke factors applied to reservoirs at any given time. In the present paper we consider the problem of optimizing such production strategies with respect to various types of objective functions. A general framework for handling this problem is developed. A crucial assumption in our approach is that the potential production rate from a reservoir can be expressed as a function of the remaining recoverable volume. The solution to the optimization problem depends on certain key properties, e.g., convexity or concavity, of the objective function and of the potential production rate functions. Using these properties several important special cases can be solved. An admissible production strategy is a strategy where the total processing capacity is fully utilized throughout a plateau phase. This phase lasts until the total potential production rate falls below the processing capacity, and after this all the reservoirs are produced without any choking. Under mild restrictions on the objective function the performance of an admissible strategy is uniquely characterized by the state of the reservoirs at the end of the plateau phase. Thus, finding an optimal admissible production strategy, is essentially equivalent to finding the optimal state at the end of the plateau phase. Given the optimal state a backtracking algorithm can then used to derive an optimal production strategy. We will illustrate this on a specific example.     

A novel Grey Bernoulli model for short-term natural gas consumption forecasting

This paper investigates the natural gas consumption of the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, and Japan by a new Grey Bernoulli model. Analytical formulations of the time response function, restored values, and linear parameters estimation are derived. Further, the nonlinear parameter is determined by the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm based on the linearized form of the model. Three numerical cases are considered to verify the effectiveness of the model. Finally, with observations from 2005 to 2017 claimed by British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, this new model is built to compute the natural gas consumption of the selected countries from 2018 to 2022. The numerical results show that the natural gas consumption will be increasing in the coming years.     

The U.S. Navy explores detailing cost reduction via Data Envelopment Analysis

In this paper we show how a variation of Data Envelopment Analysis, the Generalized Symmetric Weight Assignment Technique, is used to assign sailors to jobs for the U.S. Navy. This method differs from others as the assignment is a multi-objective problem where the importance of each objective, called a metric, is determined by the decision-maker and promoted within the assignment problem. We explore how the method performs as the importance of particular metrics increases. Finally, we show that the proposed method leads to substantial cost savings for the U.S. Navy without degrading the resulting assignments’ performance on other metrics.     

Decentralized operation strategies for an integrated building energy system using a memetic algorithm

The emerging technology in net-zero building and smart grids drives research moving from centralized operation decisions on a single building to decentralized decisions on a group of buildings, termed a building cluster which shares energy resources locally and globally. However, current research has focused on developing an accurate simulation of single building energy usage which limits its application to building clusters as scenarios such as energy sharing and competition cannot be modeled and studied. We hypothesize that the study of energy usage for a group of buildings instead of one single building will result in a cost effective building system which in turn will be resilient to power disruption. To this end, this paper develops a decision model based on a building cluster simulator with each building modeled by energy consumption, storage and generation sub modules. Assuming each building is interested in minimizing its energy cost, a bi-level operation decision framework based on a memetic algorithm is proposed to study the tradeoff in energy usage among the group of buildings. Two additional metrics, measuring the comfort level and the degree of dependencies on the power grid are introduced for the analysis. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed framework is capable of deriving the Pareto solutions for the building cluster in a decentralized manner. The Pareto solutions not only enable multiple dimensional tradeoff analysis, but also provide valuable insight for determining pricing mechanisms and power grid capacity.     

Cost allocation in collaborative forest transportation

Transportation planning is an important part of the supply chain or wood flow chain in forestry. There are often several forest companies operating in the same region and collaboration between two or more companies is rare. However, there is an increasing interest in collaborative planning as the potential savings are large, often in the range 5–15%. There are several issues to agree on before such collaborative planning can be used in practice. A key question is how the total cost or savings should be distributed among the participants. In this paper, we study a large application in southern Sweden with eight forest companies involved in a collaboration. We investigate a number of sharing mechanisms based on economic models including Shapley value, the nucleolus, separable and non-separable costs, shadow prices and volume weights. We also propose a new allocation method, with the aim that the participants relative profits are as equal as possible. We use two planning models, the first is based on direct flows between supply and demand points and the second includes backhauling. We also study how several time periods and geographical distribution of the supply and demand nodes affect the solutions. Better planning within each company can save about 5% and collaboration can increase this about another 9% to a total of 14%. The proposed allocation method is shown to be a practical approach to share the overall cost/savings.     

A Markov model for single-leg air cargo revenue management under a bid-price policy

In this paper, we consider the capacity allocation problem in single-leg air cargo revenue management. We assume that each cargo booking request is endowed with a random weight, volume and profit rate and propose a Markovian model for the booking request/acceptance/rejection process. The decision on whether to accept the booking request or to reserve the capacity for future bookings follows a bid-price control policy. In particular, a cargo will be accepted only when the revenue from accepting it exceeds the opportunity cost, which is calculated based on bid prices. Optimal solutions are derived by maximizing a reward function of a Markov chain. Numerical comparisons between the proposed approach and two existing static single-leg air cargo capacity allocation policies are presented.     

Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems – Applied to a global natural gas market model

This paper presents and implements a Benders Decomposition type of algorithm for large-scale, stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems. The algorithm is applied to various multi-stage natural gas market models accounting for market power exertion by traders. Due to the non-optimization nature of the natural gas market problem, a straightforward implementation of the traditional Benders Decomposition is not possible. The master and subproblems can be derived from the underlying optimization problems and transformed into complementarity problems. However, to complete the master problems optimality cuts are added using the variational inequality-based method developed in Gabriel and Fuller (2010). In this manner, an alternative derivation of Benders Decomposition for Stochastic MCP is presented, thereby making this approach more applicable to a broader audience. The algorithm can successfully solve problems with up to 256 scenarios and more than 600 thousand variables, and problems with over 117 thousand variables with more than two thousand first-stage capacity expansion variables. The algorithm is efficient for solving two-stage problems. The computational time reduction for other stochastic problems is considerable and would be even larger if a parallel implementation of the algorithm were used. The paper concludes with a discussion of infrastructure expansion results, illustrating the impact of hedging on investment timing and optimal capacity sizes.     

Gas storage valuation applying numerically constructed recombining trees

The liberalization of European natural gas markets forces market participants to base their decisions on market prices. For owners and operators of natural gas storage facilities it is therefore necessary to take market prices into account for their decisions. In this framework this paper provides a new approach for the valuation of natural gas storage facilities. Using stochastic dynamic programming on multinomial recombining trees, the optimal storage strategy and value are determined. For this we (i) estimate the deterministic and random impacts on natural gas prices, (ii) simulate gas prices considering the results of the first step, (iii) construct numerically the recombining tree using the simulation results, (iv) determine the optimal storage strategy and value. Besides the determination of the optimal storage value and operation schedule the value quantiles are calculated. Via the quantiles relevant risk measures like value at risk and conditional value at risk are determined.     

Optimal response against bioterror attack on airport terminal

We consider a potential bioterror attack on an airport. After the attack is identified, the government is faced with the problem of how to allocate limited emergency resources (human resources, vaccines, etc.) efficiently. The government is assumed to make a one-time resource allocation decision. The optimal allocation problem is discussed and it is shown how available information on the number of infected passengers can be incorporated into the model. Estimation for parameters of the cost function (number of deaths after the epidemic is over) is provided based on known epidemic models. The models proposed in the paper are demonstrated with a case study using real airport data.     

随机需求下有产能约束的技术创新策略研究

在随机需求和技术变革的环境下,基于有产能约束的单供应商-单零售商的供应链结构,研究供应商分销价格决策和技术创新策略以及零售商订货决策。建立了三阶段Stackelberg博弈模型,通过逆推方法求得了供应商最优分销价格和技术创新策略以及零售商最优订货量,深入探讨了供应商产能、新技术出现概率以及市场需求期望与波动分别对供应商、零售商和供应链整体利润的影响。结果表明当供应商产能不足时进行技术创新会提高供应商和供应链的利润,但零售商因间接承担供应商技术创新的投资成本而利润下降;当供应商产能过剩时进行技术创新则会降低供应商及供应链的利润,而零售商的利润增加。新技术出现概率增加会提高供应链各成员的利润;提高市场需求期望并减小市场波动对供应商及供应链有利,但可能会降低零售商的利润。     

Technology selection and capacity investment under uncertainty

We analyze the problem of technology selection and capacity investment for electricity generation in a competitive environment under uncertainty. Adopting a Nash-Cournot competition model, we consider the marginal cost as the uncertain parameter, although the results can be easily generalized to other sources of uncertainty such as a load curve. In the model, firms make three different decisions: (i) the portfolio of technologies, (ii) each technology’s capacity and (iii) the technology’s production level for every scenario. The decisions related to the portfolio and capacity are ex-ante and the production level is ex-post to the realization of uncertainty. We discuss open and closed-loop models, with the aim to understand the relationship between different technologies’ cost structures and the portfolio of generation technologies adopted by firms in equilibrium. For a competitive setting, to the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first not only to explicitly discuss the relation between costs and generation portfolio but also to allow firms to choose a portfolio of technologies. We show that portfolio diversification arises even with risk-neutral firms and technologies with different cost expectations. We also investigate conditions on the probability and cost under which different equilibria of the game arise.     

Optimal operation of hydrothermal systems with Hydrological Scenario Generation through Bootstrap and Periodic Autoregressive Models

In electrical power systems with strong hydro generation, the use of adequate techniques to generate synthetic hydrological scenarios is extremely important for the evaluation of the ways the system behaves in order to meet the forecast energy demand. This paper proposes a new model to generate natural inflow energy scenarios in the long-term operation planning of large-sized hydrothermal systems. This model is based on the Periodic Autoregressive Model, PAR (p), where the identification of the p orders is based on the significance of the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) estimated via Bootstrap, an intensive computational technique. The scenarios generated through this new technique were applied to the operation planning of the Brazilian Electrical System (BES), using the previously developed methodology of Stochastic Dynamic Programming based on Convex Hull algorithm (SDP-CHull). The results show that identification via Bootstrap is considerably more parsimonious, leading to the identification of lower orders models in most cases which retains the statistical characteristics of the original series. Additionally it presents a closer total mean operation cost when compared to the cost obtained via historic series.