Production and replacement policies for a deteriorating manufacturing system under random demand and quality

This work investigates the production planning of an unreliable deteriorating manufacturing system under uncertainties. The effect of the deterioration phenomenon on the machine is mainly observed in its availability and the quality of the parts produced, with the rates of failure and defectives increasing with the age of the machine. The option to replace the machine should be considered to mitigate the effect of deterioration in order to ensure long-term satisfaction of demand. The objective of this paper is to find the production rate and the replacement policy that minimize the total discounted cost, which includes inventory, backlog, production, repair and replacement costs, over an infinite planning horizon. We formulate the stochastic control problem in the framework of a semi-Markov decision process to consider the machine's history. The integration of random demand and quality behaviour led us to propose a new modeling approach by developing optimality conditions in terms of a second-order approximation of Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equations. Numerical methods are used to obtain the optimal control policies. Finally, a numerical example and a sensitivity analysis are presented in order to illustrate and confirm the structure of the optimal solution obtained.     

Serial production systems with random yield and rigid demand: A heuristic

We consider a heuristic for serial production systems with random yields and rigid demand: all usable units exiting a stage move forward. We calculate optimal lots and corresponding expected costs for binomial, interrupted-geometric, and all-or-nothing yields. Our method is that it makes it easy to analyze large systems.     

An economic production quantity model with a positive resetup point under random demand

In this paper, an extended economic production quantity (EPQ) model is investigated, where demand follows a random process. This study is motivated by an industrial case for precision machine assembly in the machinery industry. Both a positive resetup point s and a fixed lot size Q are implemented in this production control policy. To cope with random demand, a resetup point, i.e., the lowest inventory level to start the production, is adapted to minimize stock shortage during the replenishment cycle. The considered cost includes setup cost, inventory carrying cost, and shortage cost, where shortage may occur at the production stage and/or at the end of one replenishment cycle. Under some mild conditions, the expected cost per unit time can be shown to be convex with respect to decision parameters s and Q. Further computational study has demonstrated that the proposed model outperforms the classical EPQ when demand is random. In particular, a positive resetup point contributes to a significant portion of this cost savings when compared with that in the classical lot sizing policy.     

On coordinating an assembly system under random yield and random demand

We consider a decentralized assembly system in which the customer demand and the yield of the suppliers are random. We establish the concavity of expected supply chain profit for arbitrary number of suppliers. We propose two contracts and show that they coordinate the chain under forced compliance. The contracts are mixed type of contracts that include payments from different contract schemes. Particularly, a payment or a penalty to the worst performing supplier seems inevitable. Apart from providing a coordinating contract, we also provide qualitative insights based on a numerical illustration of centralized and decentralized solutions.     

Effective and simple EOQ-like solutions for stochastic demand periodic review systems

In this paper we examine a periodic review system under stochastic demand with variable stockout costs. The optimal values for cycle length and amount of safety stock are difficult to obtain because one of the First Order Conditions does not have a closed form solution. However, by using a Taylor series expansion to approximate part of the cost function, we produce a simple cost function structure which is similar to that of deterministic models.We argue that this simple structure is also beneficial to promote the solution in other problems where coordination of cycles is required. To illustrate, we use the joint replenishment problem for multiple items under stochastic demand and suggest simple and efficient solution procedures.     

Optimal policies for inventory systems with discretionary sales, random yield and lost sales

We determine replenishment and sales decisions jointly for an inventory system with random demand, lost sales and random yield. Demands in consecutive periods are independent random variables and their distributions are known. We incorporate discretionary sales, when inventory may be set aside to satisfy future demand even if some present demand may be lost. Our objective is to minimize the total discounted cost over the problem horizon by choosing an optimal replenishment and discretionary sales policy. We obtain the structure of the optimal replenishment and discretionary sales policy and show that the optimal policy for finite horizon problem converges to that of the infinite horizon problem. Moreover, we compare the optimal policy under random yield with that under certain yield, and show that the optimal order quantity （sales quantity） under random yield is more （less） than that under certain yield.     

Optimal replenishment policies for deteriorating items with stock sensitive demand under two-level trade credit and limited capacity

Recently, Min et al. [18] established an inventory model for deteriorating items under stock-dependent demand and two-level trade credit and obtained the optimal replenishment policy. Their analysis imposed a terminal condition of zero ending-inventory. However, with a stock-dependent demand, it may be desirable to order large quantities, resulting in stock remaining at the end of the cycle, due to the potential profits resulting from the increased demand. As a result, to make the theory more applicable in practice, we extend their model to allow for: (1) an ending-inventory to be nonzero, (2) a maximum inventory ceiling to reflect the facts that too much stock leaves a negative impression on the buyer and the amount of shelf/display space is limited.     

The use of stochastic analytic center for yield maximization of systems with general distributions of component values

This paper presents a new method for maximizing manufacturing yield when the realizations of system components are dependent random variables with general distributions. The method uses a new concept of stochastic analytic center introduced herein to design the unknown parameters of component values. Design specifications define a feasible region which, in the nonlinear case, is linearized using a first-order approximation. The resulting problem becomes a convex optimization problem. Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the actual yield of the optimal designs of a tutorial example.     

Joint management of capacity and inventory in make-to-stock production systems with multi-class demand

We evaluate the benefits of coordinating capacity and inventory decisions in a make-to-stock production environment. We consider a firm that faces multi-class demand and has additional capacity options that are temporary and randomly available. We formulate the model as a Markov decision process (MDP) and prove that a solution to the optimal joint control problem exists. For several special cases we characterize the structure of the optimal policy. For the general case, however, we show that the optimal policy is state-dependent, and in many instances non-monotone and difficult to implement. Therefore, we consider three pragmatic heuristic policies and assess their performance. We show that the majority of the savings originate from the ability to dynamically adjust capacity, and that a simple heuristic that can adjust production capacity (based on workload fluctuation) but uses a static production/rationing policy can result in significant savings.     

Joint determination of optimal safety stocks and production policy for an imperfect production system

In this article, we develop an imperfect economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ) model for an unreliable production system subject to process deterioration, machine breakdown and repair and buffer stock. The basic model is developed under general process shift, machine breakdown and repair time distributions. We suggest a computational algorithm for determination of the optimal safety stock and production run time which minimize the expected cost per unit time in the steady state. For a numerical example, we illustrate the outcome of the proposed model and perform a sensitivity analysis with respect to the model-parameters which have direct influence on the optimal decisions.     

Environmental safety stock: The impacts of regulatory and voluntary control policies on production planning,inventory control,and environmental performance

This paper analyzes the impacts of different pollution control policies on a firm’s decisions of production planning and inventory control. Based on a stochastic model with both demand and environmental uncertainties, we derive the optimal policies of production planning and inventory control under both regulatory and voluntary pollution control approaches, and investigate their operational and environmental effects. We establish that the conventional wisdom which suggests that reduction of environmental waste at the end of a production process also decreases the stock and throughput levels of a production system is not necessarily true. Rather, a regulatory environmental standard that limits the total amount of waste may induce the firm to raise its planned stock level, which would lead to a higher expected amount of environmental wastes before the standard is enforced as well as environmental risks at other stages of the production process. The additional planned stock level, which is termed “environmental safety stock,” can be reversed by using the voluntary control approach that provides the firm with the flexibility to occasionally exceed the environmental standard. We also conduct numerical experiments to analyze the effects of different values of model parameters under different control approaches. The analytical results provide new insights to the impacts of a firm’s production and inventory decisions on the natural environment as well as to the choices of pollution control approaches by decision makers in both the private and public sectors.     

Stabilization of nonlinear networked systems with sensor random packet dropout and time-varying delay

In this paper, a nonlinear stochastic system model is proposed to describe the networked control systems (NCSs) with both random packet dropout and network-induced time-varying delay. Based on this more general nonlinear NCSs model, by choosing appropriate Lyapunov functional and employing new discrete Jensen type inequality, a sufficient condition is derived to establish the quantitative relation of maximum allowable delay upper bound, packet dropout rate and the nonlinear level to the exponential stability of the nonlinear NCSs. Design procedures for output feedback controller are also presented in terms of utilizing cone complementarities linearization algorithm or solving corresponding linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Illustrative examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Stability and optimality of a multi-product production and storage system under demand uncertainty

This work develops a discrete event model for a multi-product multi-stage production and storage (P&S) problem subject to random demand. The intervention problem consists of three types of possible decisions made at the end of one stage, which depend on the observed demand (or lack of) for each item: (i) to proceed further with the production of the same product, (ii) to proceed with the production of another product or (iii) to halt the production. The intervention problem is formulated in terms of dynamic programming (DP) operators and each possible solution induces an homogeneous Markov chain that characterizes the dynamics. However, solving directly the DP problem is not a viable task in situations involving a moderately large number of products with many production stages, and the idea of the paper is to detach from strict optimality with monitored precision, and rely on stability. The notion of stochastic stability brought to bear requires a finite set of positive recurrent states and the paper derives necessary and sufficient conditions for a policy to induce such a set in the studied P&S problem. An approximate value iteration algorithm is proposed, which applies to the broader class of control problems described by homogeneous Markov chains that satisfy a structural condition pointed out in the paper. This procedure iterates in a finite subset of the state space, circumventing the computational burden of standard dynamic programming. To benchmark the approach, the proposed algorithm is applied to a simple two-product P&S system.     

An inventory model for a deteriorating item with displayed stock dependent demand under fuzzy inflation and time discounting over a random planning horizon

An inventory model for a deteriorating item (seasonal product) with linearly displayed stock dependent demand is developed in imprecise environment (involving both fuzzy and random parameters) under inflation and time value of money. It is assumed that time horizon, i.e., period of business is random and follows exponential distribution with a known mean. The resultant effect of inflation and time value of money is assumed as fuzzy in nature. The particular case, when resultant effect of inflation and time value is crisp in nature, is also analyzed. A genetic algorithm (GA) is developed with roulette wheel selection, arithmetic crossover, random mutation. For crisp inflation effect, the total expected profit for the planning horizon is maximized using the above GA to derive optimal inventory decision. On the other hand when inflationary effect is fuzzy then the above expected profit is fuzzy in nature too. Since optimization of fuzzy objective is not well defined, the optimistic/pessimistic return of the expected profit is obtained using possibility/necessity measure of fuzzy event. Fuzzy simulation process is proposed to determine this optimistic/pessimistic return. Finally a fuzzy simulation based GA is developed and is used to maximize the above optimistic/pessimistic return to get optimal decision. The models are illustrated with some numerical examples and some sensitivity analyses have been presented.     

Optimal price and lot size determination for a perishable product under conditions of finite production, partial backordering and lost sale

The paper describes an EOQ model of a perishable product for the case of price dependent demand, partial backordering which depends on the length of the waiting time for the next replenishment, and lost sale. The model is solved analytically to obtain the optimal price and size of the replenishment. In the model, the customers are viewed to be impatient and a fraction of the demand is backlogged. This fraction is a function of the waiting time of the customers. In most of the inventory models developed so far, researchers considered that inventory accumulates at the early stage of the inventory and then shortage occurs. This type of inventory is called IFS (inventory followed by shortage) policy. In the present model we consider that shortage occurs before the starting of inventory. We have proved numerically that instead of taking IFS, if we consider SFI (shortage followed by inventory) policy, we would get better result, i.e., a higher profit. The model is extended to the case of non-perishable product also. The optimal solution of the model is illustrated with the help of a numerical example.     

Sufficient conditions for the existence of global random attractors for stochastic lattice dynamical systems and applications

In this paper, we first present some sufficient conditions for the existence of a global random attractor for general stochastic lattice dynamical systems. These sufficient conditions provide a convenient approach to obtain an upper bound of Kolmogorov ε-entropy for the global random attractor. Then we apply the abstract result to the stochastic lattice sine-Gordon equation.     

Constitution of random intercept and slope model (RISM) as a special case of linear mixed models (LMMs) for repeated measurements data

In this paper, for the aim of modeling variance-covariance structure matrix of the response variables vector in random intercept and slope model (RISM) from linear mixed models (LMMs) for repeated measurements data, 13 different homogeneous and heterogeneous variance-covariance structure models are investigated comparatively in an application from a clinical trial.     

A penalty function-based random search algorithm for optimal control of switched systems with stochastic constraints and its application in automobile test-driving with gear shifts

Practical industrial process is usually a dynamic process including uncertainty. Stochastic constraints can be used for industrial process modeling, when system sate and/or control input constraints cannot be strictly satisfied. Thus, optimal control of switched systems with stochastic constraints can be available to address practical industrial process problems with different modes. In general, obtaining an analytical solution of the optimal control problem is usually very difficult due to the discrete nature of the switching law and the complexity of stochastic constraints. To obtain a numerical solution, this problem is formulated as a constrained nonlinear parameter selection problem (CNPSP) based on a relaxation transformation (RT) technique, an adaptive sample approximation (ASA) method, a smooth approximation (SA) technique, and a control parameterization (CP) method. Following that, a penalty function-based random search (PFRS) algorithm is designed for solving the CNPSP based on a novel search rule-based penalty function (NSRPF) method and a novel random search (NRS) algorithm. The convergence results show that the proposed method is globally convergent. Finally, an optimal control problem in automobile test-driving with gear shifts (ATGS) is further extended to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method by taking into account some stochastic constraints. Numerical results show that compared with other typical methods, the proposed method is less conservative and can obtain a stable and robust performance when considering the small perturbations in initial system state. In addition, to balance the computation amount and the numerical solution accuracy, a tolerance setting method is also provided by the numerical analysis technique.