Speculative production and anticipative reservation of reactive capacity by a multi-product newsvendor

In this paper the optimal sourcing decisions of a multi-product newsvendor prior to the selling season of the products are studied. To satisfy the uncertain demands, the newsvendor can either utilize speculative production, or anticipatively reserve capacity. During the selling season when demand has become known, the newsvendor can utilize its reserved capacity and reactively satisfy demand uncovered by its speculative production. For the case where capacity for speculative production may be limited, but potential reservation of reactive capacity is unlimited two capacity reservation settings are analyzed and compared. In the first one capacity for each product has to be reserved separately, while in the second setting one joint capacity reservation for all products is permitted which can then be allocated to the different products optimally during the selling season. For the case of separate individual reservations the optimal strategies are analytically derived and structural insights concerning their existence are presented. As the model allowing for joint reservation can not be tackled analytically in general an approximation based on an LP formulation is used. Through a numerical example insights on the value of the increased flexibility induced by joint reservation, the cost-premium acceptable for joint reservation and the relative levels of capacity reservation in the two settings are given.     

Manufacturer’s return policy in a two-stage supply chain with two risk-averse retailers and random demand

This paper studies the manufacturer’s return policy and the retailers’ decisions in a supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and two risk-averse retailers under a single-period setting with price-sensitive random demand. We characterize each retailer’s risk-embedded objective via conditional value-at-risk, and construct manufacturer-Stackelberg games with and without horizontal price competition between the retailers. We explore, through numerical studies, the effects of the retailers’ aversion to risk and other parameters on the manufacturer’s return policy and profit and the retailers’ decisions. We further investigate the effect of distribution asymmetry by comparing the results with normal and lognormal demand.     

A quadratic programming approach to the multi-product newsvendor problem with side constraints

A quadratic programming approach is proposed for solving the newsvendor problem with side constraints. Among its salient features are the facts that it: utilizes familiar packages to solve the problem such as Excel Solver and Lingo, can accommodate lower bounds of product’s demands that are larger than zero, and facilitates the performance of sensitivity analysis tasks.     

The newsvendor problem under multiplicative background risk

This note studies the single-period newsvendor problem when the newsvendor faces a multiplicative neutral independent background risk in an expected utility framework. It is shown that multiplicative risk vulnerability is a sufficient condition to guarantee a decrease in the optimal order. A weaker sufficient condition which has more interpretability is also provided and discussed. This result sheds light on situations where exchange, tax or inflation rates risks, which apply multiplicatively to the final wealth, are at work.     

The newsvendor problem with an in-season price adjustment

Consider a retailer stocking a seasonal item facing a stochastic demand where information about the demand becomes more accurate as the selling season progresses. The retailer places orders before the start of the season and in-season reorders are not possible. This article extends the classical newsvendor model by allowing the retailer to make an in-season price adjustment after conducting a review and using the realized demand to obtain an accurate estimate of the remaining demand. Our results include answers to the following questions. What price should the retailer choose? How much should the retailer have ordered at the start of the season given the option of adjusting prices in-season? This model was motivated by a problem in car rental revenue management and has applications in perishable assets revenue management (PARM), where price adjustments are needed towards the end of the selling season.     

The effect of demand uncertainty in a price-setting newsvendor model

We study the effects of demand uncertainty on optimal decisions and the expected profit of a price-setting newsvendor who faces either additive or multiplicative stochastic demand. Our key findings are as follows. (1) A stochastically larger demand may even lead to a smaller order size and a lower profit when price is endogenous. (2) A stochastically larger demand will lead to a higher selling price in general for the additive demand case but to a lower selling price under certain mild conditions for the multiplicative demand case. Moreover, if the larger demand can be represented by a transformation of the lower one, it will lead to a higher expected profit for both demand cases. However, except for the setting with a zero shortage cost, a larger demand may not necessarily result in a higher expected profit in general. (3) Under mild conditions, a less variable demand will lead to a higher and lower selling price for the additive and multiplicative demand case, respectively, and a higher expected profit for both cases.     

A maximum entropy approach to the newsvendor problem with partial information

In this paper, we consider the newsvendor model under partial information, i.e., where the demand distribution D is partly unknown. We focus on the classical case where the retailer only knows the expectation and variance of D. The standard approach is then to determine the order quantity using conservative rules such as minimax regret or Scarf’s rule. We compute instead the most likely demand distribution in the sense of maximum entropy. We then compare the performance of the maximum entropy approach with minimax regret and Scarf’s rule on large samples of randomly drawn demand distributions. We show that the average performance of the maximum entropy approach is considerably better than either alternative, and more surprisingly, that it is in most cases a better hedge against bad results.     

A risk-averse newsvendor with law invariant coherent measures of risk

For general law invariant coherent measures of risk, we derive an equivalent representation of a risk-averse newsvendor problem as a mean-risk model. We prove that the higher the weight of the risk functional, the smaller the order quantity. Our theoretical results are confirmed by sample-based optimization.     

A minimax distribution-free procedure for a newsvendor problem with free shipping

In this paper, we study the optimal policies of retailers who operate their inventory with a single period model (i.e., newsvendor model) under a free shipping offer where a fixed shipping fee is exempted if an order quantity is greater than or equal to a given minimum quantity. Zhou et al. (2009) have explored this model, and we further investigate their analysis for the optimal ordering policies which they did not sufficiently develop. Based on the investigation, we extend the base model in order to deal with the practically important aspect of inventory management when the exact distribution function of demand is not available. We incorporate the aspect into the base model and present the optimal policies for the extended model with a numerical example. Finally, we conduct extensive numerical experiments to evaluate the performance of the extended model and analyze the impacts of minimum free shipping quantity and the fixed shipping fee on the performance.     

Robust multi-market newsvendor models with interval demand data

We present a robust model for determining the optimal order quantity and market selection for short-life-cycle products in a single period, newsvendor setting. Due to limited information about demand distribution in particular for short-life-cycle products, stochastic modeling approaches may not be suitable. We propose the minimax regret multi-market newsvendor model, where the demands are only known to be bounded within some given interval. In the basic version of the problem, a linear time solution method is developed. For the capacitated case, we establish some structural results to reduce the problem size, and then propose an approximation solution algorithm based on integer programming. Finally, we compare the performance of the proposed minimax regret model against the typical average-case and worst-case models. Our test results demonstrate that the proposed minimax regret model outperformed the average-case and worst-case models in terms of risk-related criteria and mean profit, respectively.     

Using separable programming to solve the multi-product multiple ex-ante constraint newsvendor problem and extensions

This paper provides an approximating programming technique to solve the multi-product newsvendor model in which product demands are independent and stocking quantities are subject to two or more ex-ante linear contraints, such as budget or volume constraints. Previous research has attempted to solve this problem with Lagrange relaxation techniques or by limiting the distribution of demand. However, by taking advantage of the separable nature of the problem, a close approximation of the optimal solution can be found using convex separable programming for any demand distribution in the traditional newsvendor model and extensions. Sensitivity analysis of the linear program provides managerial insight into the effects of parameters of the problem on the optimal solution and future decisions.     

Confidence-based optimisation for the newsvendor problem under binomial,Poisson and exponential demand

We introduce a novel strategy to address the issue of demand estimation in single-item single-period stochastic inventory optimisation problems. Our strategy analytically combines confidence interval analysis and inventory optimisation. We assume that the decision maker is given a set of past demand samples and we employ confidence interval analysis in order to identify a range of candidate order quantities that, with prescribed confidence probability, includes the real optimal order quantity for the underlying stochastic demand process with unknown stationary parameter(s). In addition, for each candidate order quantity that is identified, our approach produces an upper and a lower bound for the associated cost. We apply this approach to three demand distributions in the exponential family: binomial, Poisson, and exponential. For two of these distributions we also discuss the extension to the case of unobserved lost sales. Numerical examples are presented in which we show how our approach complements existing frequentist—e.g. based on maximum likelihood estimators—or Bayesian strategies.     

A multi-item newsvendor problem with preseason production and capacitated reactive production

Given items with short life cycles or seasonal demands, one can potentially improve profits by producing during the selling season, especially when its production capacity is substantial. We develop a two-stage, multi-item model incorporating reactive production that employs a firm’s internal capacity. Production occurs in an uncapacitated preseason stage and a capacitated reactive stage. Demands occur in the reactive stage. Reactive capacities are pre-allocated to each item in the preseason stage and cannot be changed during the reactive stage. Reactive production occurs during the selling season with full knowledge of demands. The objective is expected profit maximization. Unsatisfied demand is lost. The revenue, salvage value, and production and lost sales costs are proportional. Assuming no fixed costs, we present a simple algorithm for computing optimal policies. For a model with fixed costs for allocating preseason stage production and reactive stage capacity to product families, we characterize optimal policies and develop optimal and heuristic algorithms.     

Multi-tier binary solution method for multi-product newsvendor problem with multiple constraints

This paper considers a multi-product newsvendor problem with multiple constraints. Multiple constraints in the problem make it more challenging to solve. Previous research has attempted to solve the problem by considering two-constraint case or/and using approximation techniques or active sets methods. The solution methods in literature for solving multi-constraint problem are limited or cumbersome. In this paper, by analyzing structural properties of the multi-constraint multi-product newsvendor problem, we develop a multi-tier binary solution method for yielding the optimal solution to the problem. The proposed method is applicable to the problem with any continuous demand distribution and more than two constraints, and its computational complexity is polynomial in the number of products. Numerical results are presented for showing the effectiveness of our method.     

Modeling a multi-attribute utility newsvendor with partial backlogging

Traditional newsvendor models usually focus on single profit maximization or cost minimization approaches. However, making a monetary estimate of the consequences of lost sales as a result of shortages is often a difficult task for many practitioners. Besides, there is still a lack of an explicit account of decision-making judgments on the multiple consequences of making decisions with regard to order quantities. In order to deal with this problem, this paper presents a multi-attribute utility model for the newsvendor problem with regard to profit, the impacts of service level on corporate image and on customers’ goodwill, and the impact on the environment arising from the disposal of unsold products. Demand is partially backlogged according to a decreasing exponential function of the waiting time. The fundamental principles and limitations related to the application of the model built are also discussed.     

Multi-product newsboy problem with limited capacity and outsourcing

This paper considers a multi-product newsboy system that produces multiple products for fulfilling independently uncertain demands, which share the same production capacity. To deal with possible shortage of limited capacity, productions can be outsourced. We consider two outsourcing strategies: zero lead time outsourcing, and nonzero lead time outsourcing. The structural properties and solution procedures for the profit-maximization models are developed. Numerical results are provided for obtaining some managerial insights.     

Jointly pricing and ordering for a multi-product multi-constraint newsvendor problem with supplier quantity discounts

We present an extension to the multi-product newsvendor problem by incorporating the retailer’s pricing decision as well as considering supplier quantity discount. The objective is to maximize the expected profit of the retailer through jointly determining the ordering quantities and selling prices for the products, subject to multiple capacity constraints. We formulate the problem as a Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) model and develop a Lagrangian heuristic approach for its solution. Randomly produced instances involving up to 1000 products are used to test the proposed approach. Computational results show that the Lagrangian heuristic approach can present very good solutions to all instances in reasonable time.     

The price-setting newsvendor with nonlinear salvage revenue and shortage cost

We consider the price-setting newsvendor problems with linear additive demand, nonlinear salvage revenue and nonlinear shortage penalty costs. We prove existence–uniqueness of the optimal solution and investigate the equivalence of our model to related models in the literature.     

A multi-product risk-averse newsvendor with exponential utility function

We consider a multi-product newsvendor using an exponential utility function. We first establish a few basic properties for the newsvendor regarding the convexity of the model and monotonicity of the impact of risk aversion on the solution.When the product demands are independent and the ratio of the degree of risk aversion to the number of products is sufficiently small, we obtain closed-form approximations of the optimal order quantities. The approximations are as easy to compute as the risk-neutral solution. We prove that when this ratio approaches zero, the risk-averse solution converges to the corresponding risk-neutral solution. When the product demands are positively (negatively) correlated, we show that risk aversion leads to lower (higher) optimal order quantities than the solution with independent demands.Using a numerical study, we examine convergence rates of the approximations and thoroughly study the interplay of demand correlation and risk aversion. The numerical study confirms our analytical results and further shows that an increased risk aversion does not always lead to lower order quantities, when demands are strongly negatively correlated.     

Managing inventories with one-way substitution: A newsvendor analysis

This paper presents an insightful approach to analyze two-item periodic inventory systems with one-way substitution. The objective is to minimize the expected total cost per period, which consists of expected purchasing costs, expected inventory holding costs, expected shortage costs, and expected adjustment costs. This approach helps derive the optimality conditions in both single-period and infinite horizon settings and yields useful insights into the impact of substitution on the service level, the optimality of a borderline case in which the order-up-to level of the inflexible item is reduced to zero, and the pivotal role of the purchasing cost.