Notes on ‘Hit-And-Run enables efficient weight generation for simulation-based multiple criteria decision analysis’

In our previous work published in this journal, we showed how the Hit-And-Run (HAR) procedure enables efficient sampling of criteria weights from a space formed by restricting a simplex with arbitrary linear inequality constraints. In this short communication, we note that the method for generating a basis of the sampling space can be generalized to also handle arbitrary linear equality constraints. This enables the application of HAR to sampling spaces that do not coincide with the simplex, thereby allowing the combined use of imprecise and precise preference statements. In addition, it has come to our attention that one of the methods we proposed for generating a starting point for the Markov chain was flawed. To correct this, we provide an alternative method that is guaranteed to produce a starting point that lies within the interior of the sampling space.     

Robust multi-criteria ranking with additive value models and holistic pair-wise preference statements

We consider a problem of ranking alternatives based on their deterministic performance evaluations on multiple criteria. We apply additive value theory and assume the Decision Maker’s (DM) preferences to be representable with general additive monotone value functions. The DM provides indirect preference information in form of pair-wise comparisons of reference alternatives, and we use this to derive the set of compatible value functions. Then, this set is analyzed to describe (1) the possible and necessary preference relations, (2) probabilities of the possible relations, (3) ranges of ranks the alternatives may obtain, and (4) the distributions of these ranks. Our work combines previous results from Robust Ordinal Regression, Extreme Ranking Analysis and Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis under a unified decision support framework. We show how the four different results complement each other, discuss extensions of the main proposal, and demonstrate practical use of the approach by considering a problem of ranking 20 European countries in terms of 4 criteria reflecting the quality of their universities.     

A new distance measure including the weak preference relation: Application to the multiple criteria aggregation procedure for mixed evaluations

We introduce a new distance measure between two preorders that captures indifference, strict preference, weak preference and incomparability relations. This measure is the first to capture weak preference relations. We illustrate how this distance measure affords decision makers greater modeling power to capture their preferences, or uncertainty and ambiguity around them, by using our proposed distance measure in a multiple criteria aggregation procedure for mixed evaluations.     

Multiple criteria aggregation procedure for mixed evaluations

Most of the existing multiple criteria decision-making methods handle one kind of the information imperfections at the same time. Stochastic methods and fuzzy methods constitute typical examples of these methods. However, several multiple criteria modelizations include simultaneously many kinds of the information imperfections. In this work, we propose a multiple criteria aggregation procedure which accepts mixed evaluations, i.e. evaluations which contain different natures of imperfections. It is based on an adaptation of the stochastic dominance results.     

Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis

his paper provides a review of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for cases where attribute evaluations are uncertain. The main aim is to identify different tools which can be used to represent uncertain evaluations, and to broadly survey the available decision models that can be used to support uncertain decision making. The review includes models using probabilities or probability-like quantities; explicit risk measures such as quantiles and variances; fuzzy numbers, and scenarios. The practical assessment of uncertain outcomes and preferences associated with these outcomes is also discussed.     

Range-based Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis: A combined method of Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to support participatory decision making under uncertainty

Concerns about environmental and social effects have made Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) increasingly popular. Decision making in complex contexts often – possibly always – requires addressing an aggregation of multiple issues to meet social, economic, legal, technical, and environmental objectives. These values at stake may affect different stakeholders through distributional effects characterized by a high and heterogeneous uncertainty that no social actors can completely control or understand. On this basis, we present a new process framework that aims to support participatory decision making under uncertainty: the range-based Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (range-based MAMCA). On the one hand, the process framework explicitly considers stakeholders’ objectives at an output level of aggregation. On the other hand, by means of a Monte Carlo analysis, the method also provides an exploratory scenario approach that enables the capture of the uncertainty, which stems from the complex context evolution. Range-based MAMCA offers a unique participatory process framework that enables us (1) to identify the alternatives pros and cons for each stakeholder group; (2) to provide probabilities about the risk of supporting mistaken, or at least ill-suited, decisions because of the uncertainty regarding to the decision-making context; (3) to take the decision-makers’ limited control of the actual policy effects over the implementation of one or several options into account. The range-based MAMCA framework is illustrated by means of our first case study that aimed to assess French stakeholders’ support for different biofuel options by 2030.     

A simple classifier for multiple criteria ABC analysis

To have an efficient control of a huge amount of inventory items, traditional approach is to classify the inventory into different groups. Different inventory control policies can then applied to different groups. The well-known ABC classification is simple-to-understand and easy-to-use. However, ABC analysis is based on only single measurement such as annual dollar usage. It has been recognized that other criteria are also important in inventory classification.     

Weight determination for consistently ranking alternatives in multiple criteria decision analysis

One of the most difficult tasks in multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is determining the weights of individual criteria so that all alternatives can be compared based on the aggregate performance of all criteria. This problem can be transformed into the compromise programming of seeking alternatives with a shorter distance to the ideal or a longer distance to the anti-ideal despite the rankings based on the two distance measures possibly not being the same. In order to obtain consistent rankings, this paper proposes a measure of relative distance, which involves the calculation of the relative position of an alternative between the anti-ideal and the ideal for ranking. In this case, minimizing the distance to the ideal is equivalent to maximizing the distance to the anti-ideal, so the rankings obtained from the two criteria are the same. An example is used to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method, and the results are compared with those obtained from the TOPSIS method.     

Progressive methods in multiple criteria decision analysis

This is a summary of the author’s Ph.D. thesis, defended on 8 October 2007 at the University of Luxembourg and the Faculté Polytechnique de Mons, under the joint supervision of Raymond Bisdorff and Marc Pirlot. The thesis is written in English and is available from the author upon request. The work is situated in the field of multiple criteria decision analysis. It mostly deals with what we call progressive methods, i.e., iterative procedures presenting partial conclusions to the decision maker that can be refined at further steps of the analysis. Such progressive methods have been studied in the context of multiattribute value theory and outranking methods.      

Inferring robust decision models in multicriteria classification problems: An experimental analysis

Recent research on robust decision aiding has focused on identifying a range of recommendations from preferential information and the selection of representative models compatible with preferential constraints. This study presents an experimental analysis on the relationship between the results of a single decision model (additive value function) and the ones from the full set of compatible models in classification problems. Different optimization formulations for selecting a representative model are tested on artificially generated data sets with varying characteristics.     

A new method for multiple criteria group decision making with incomplete weight information under linguistic environment

A new method is proposed to solve multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM) problems, in which both the criteria values and criteria weights take the form of linguistic information, and the information about linguistic criteria weights is partly known or completely unknown. Firstly, to get reasonable decision result, instead of assigning the same weight to the decision maker (DM) for all criteria, we propose a method to determine the weight of DM with respect to each criterion under linguistic environment by calculating the similarity degree between individual 2-tuple linguistic evaluation value and the mean given by all decision makers (DMs). Secondly, for the situations where the information about the criteria weights is partly known or completely unknown, we establish optimization models to determine the criteria weights by defining 2-tuple linguistic positive ideal solution (TL-PIS), 2-tuple linguistic right negative ideal solution (TL-RNIS) and 2-tuple linguistic left negative ideal solution (TL-LNIS) of the collective 2-tuple linguistic decision matrix. Thirdly, we propose a new method to solve MCGDM problems with partly known or completely unknown linguistic weight information. Finally, an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the calculation process of the proposed method.     

Projection method for multiple criteria group decision making with incomplete weight information in linguistic setting

Multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM) problems have become a very active research field over the last decade. Many practical problems are often characterized by MCGDM. The aim of this paper is to develop a new approach for MCGDM problems with incomplete weight information in linguistic setting based on the projection method. Firstly, to reflect the reality accurately, a method to determine the weights of decision makers in linguistic setting is proposed by calculating the degree of similarity between 2-tuple linguistic decision matrix given by each decision maker and the average 2-tuple linguistic decision matrix. By using the weights of decision makers, all individual 2-tuple linguistic decision matrices are aggregated into a collective one. Then, to determine the weight vector of criteria, we establish a non-linear optimization model based on the basic ideal of the projection method, i.e., the optimal alternative should have the largest projection on the 2-tuple linguistic positive ideal solution (TLPIS). Calculate the 2-tuple linguistic projection of each alternative on the TLPIS and rank all the alternatives according to the 2-tuple linguistic projection value. Finally, an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the calculation process of the proposed method, and the validity is verified by comparing the evaluation results of the proposed method with that of the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method.     

An efficient and simple model for multiple criteria supplier selection problem

Simply looking for vendors offering the lowest prices is not “efficient sourcing” any more. Selection of suppliers is a multiple criteria decision. We propose a weighted linear program for the multi-criteria supplier selection problem. In addition to mathematical formulation, this paper studies a transformation technique which enables our proposed model to be solved without an optimizer. The model for multi-criteria supplier selection problem can be easily implemented with a spreadsheet package. The model can be widely applied to practical situations and does not require the user with any optimization background.     

The assessment of the information quality with the aid of multiple criteria analysis

The virtual business work flow depends on the information quality (IQ) which is essential attribute of information. The IQ depends strongly on organization of the information system (IS) and how the information is processed. In our approach we incorporate the four-aspect representation of IQ: (1) intrinsic, (2) contextual, (3) representational, and (4) accessibility. These four-aspects are divided into several criteria at the next level of hierarchy. The weights, representing the relative importance of criteria, have been assessed by pair-wise comparisons made by group of experts. Based on discussion with experts, six alternative strategies, that could be used for improving the IQ, were designed. For each given criterion, the group of subjects revealed the opinion about the level of achievement of every alternative. The set of scores, assigned to the alternative by different subjects, formed the discrete distribution that is used for a comparison of alternatives with the aid of stochastic dominances. In analogy to the Electre I methodology, the simple algorithm for the aggregate evaluation of analyzed alternatives was proposed. The benefits of proposed approach were demonstrated in a case study of the semiconductor industry. The results of our study suggest, that in case of matured company, the external strategies, that point out to the information exchange and strategic networked alliance with customers and suppliers, are preferred to the internal ones. The latter ones might be of greater importance for the new set up or for a young company.     

Convergence properties and practical estimation of the probability of rank reversal in pairwise comparisons for multi-criteria decision making problems

In this paper, we address the impact of uncertainty introduced when the experts complete pairwise comparison matrices, in the context of multi-criteria decision making. We first discuss how uncertainty can be quantified and modeled and then show how the probability of rank reversal scales with the number of experts. We consider the impact of various aspects which may affect the estimation of probability of rank reversal in the context of pairwise comparisons, such as the uncertainty level, alternative preference scales and different weight estimation methods. We also consider the case where the comparisons are carried out in a fuzzy manner. It is shown that in most circumstances, augmenting the size of the expert group beyond 15 produces a small change in the probability of rank reversal. We next address the issue of how this probability can be estimated in practice, from information gathered simply from the comparison matrices of a single expert group. We propose and validate a scheme which yields an estimate for the probability of rank reversal and test the applicability of this scheme under various conditions. The framework discussed in the paper can allow decision makers to correctly choose the number of experts participating in a pairwise comparison and obtain an estimate of the credibility of the outcome.     

A comparison of multiple criteria analysis techniques for water resource management

Multiple criteria analysis (MCA) is a framework for evaluating decision options against multiple criteria. Numerous techniques for solving an MCA problem are available. This paper applies MCA to six water management decision problems. The MCA methods tested include weighted summation, range of value, PROMTHEE II, Evamix and compromise programming. We show that different MCA methods were in strong agreement with high correlations amongst rankings. In the few cases where strong disagreement between MCA methods did occur it was due to presence of mixed ordinal-cardinal data in the evaluation matrix. The results suggest that whilst selection of the MCA technique is important more emphasis is needed on the initial structuring of the decision problem, which involves choosing criteria and decision options.     

The extended linear assignment method for multiple criteria decision analysis based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets

The theory of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets is useful and beneficial for handling uncertainty and imprecision in multiple criteria decision analysis. In addition, the theory allows for convenient quantification of the equivocal nature of human subjective assessments. In this paper, by extending the traditional linear assignment method, we propose a useful method for solving multiple criteria evaluation problems in the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy context. A ranking procedure consisting of score functions, accuracy functions, membership uncertainty indices, and hesitation uncertainty indices is presented to determine a criterion-wise preference of the alternatives. An extended linear assignment model is then constructed using a modified weighted-rank frequency matrix to determine the priority order of various alternatives. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed method are illustrated with a multiple criteria decision-making problem involving the selection of a bridge construction method. Additionally, a comparative analysis with other methods, including the approach with weighted aggregation operators, the closeness coefficient-based method, and the auxiliary nonlinear programming models, has been conducted for solving the investment company selection problem to validate the effectiveness of the extended linear assignment method.     

The extended QUALIFLEX method for multiple criteria decision analysis based on interval type-2 fuzzy sets and applications to medical decision making

QUALIFLEX, a generalization of Jacquet-Lagreze’s permutation method, is a useful outranking method in decision analysis because of its flexibility with respect to cardinal and ordinal information. This paper develops an extended QUALIFLEX method for handling multiple criteria decision-making problems in the context of interval type-2 fuzzy sets. Interval type-2 fuzzy sets contain membership values that are crisp intervals, which are the most widely used of the higher order fuzzy sets because of their relative simplicity. Using the linguistic rating system converted into interval type-2 trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, the extended QUALIFLEX method investigates all possible permutations of the alternatives with respect to the level of concordance of the complete preference order. Based on a signed distance-based approach, this paper proposes the concordance/discordance index, the weighted concordance/discordance index, and the comprehensive concordance/discordance index as evaluative criteria of the chosen hypothesis for ranking the alternatives. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed methods are illustrated by a medical decision-making problem concerning acute inflammatory demyelinating disease, and a comparative analysis with another outranking approach is conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

Evidential reasoning based preference programming for multiple attribute decision analysis under uncertainty

Multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA) problems having both quantitative and qualitative attributes under uncertainty can be modelled and analysed using the evidential reasoning (ER) approach. Several types of uncertainty such as ignorance and fuzziness can be consistently modelled in the ER framework. In this paper, both interval weight assignments and interval belief degrees are considered, which could be incurred in many decision situations such as group decision making. Based on the existing ER algorithm, several pairs of preference programming models are constructed to support global sensitivity analysis based on the interval values and to generate the upper and lower bounds of the combined belief degrees for distributed assessment and also the expected values for ranking of alternatives. A post-optimisation procedure is developed to identify non-dominated solutions, examine the robustness of the partial ranking orders generated, and provide guidance for the elicitation of additional information for generating more desirable assessment results. A car evaluation problem is examined to show the implementation process of the proposed approach.