Quantitative models for sustainable supply chain management: Developments and directions

Sustainability, the consideration of environmental factors and social aspects, in supply chain management (SCM) has become a highly relevant topic for researchers and practitioners. The application of operations research methods and related models, i.e. formal modeling, for closed-loop SCM and reverse logistics has been effectively reviewed in previously published research. This situation is in contrast to the understanding and review of mathematical models that focus on environmental or social factors in forward supply chains (SC), which has seen less investigation. To evaluate developments and directions of this research area, this paper provides a content analysis of 134 carefully identified papers on quantitative, formal models that address sustainability aspects in the forward SC. It was found that a preponderance of the publications and models appeared in a limited set of six journals, and most were analytically based with a focus on multiple criteria decision making. The tools most often used comprise the analytical hierarchy process or its close relative, the analytical network process, as well as life cycle analysis. Conclusions are drawn showing that numerous possibilities and insights can be gained from expanding the types of tools and factors considered in formal modeling efforts.     

Integrated fleet mix and routing decision for hazmat transportation: A developing country perspective

In developing countries, truck purchase cost is the dominant criteria for fleet acquisition-related decisions. However, we contend that other cost factors such as loss due to the number of en route truck stoppages based on a truck type and recovery cost associated with a route choice decision, should also be considered for deciding the fleet mix and minimizing the overall costs for long-haul shipments. The resulting non-linear model, with integer variables for the number and type of trucks, and the route choices, is solved via genetic algorithm. Using real data from a bulk liquid hazmat transporter, the trade-offs between the cost of travel, loss due to number of truck stoppages, and the long-term recovery cost associated with the risk of exposure due to a hazmat carrier accident are discussed. The numerical experiments show that when factors related to public safety and truck stoppages are taken into account for transportation, the lowest total cost and optimal route choice do not align with the cheapest truck type option; rather, the optimal solution corresponds to another truck type and route with total costs significantly less than the total costs associated with the cheapest truck type. Our model challenges the current truck purchasing strategy adopted in developing countries using the cheapest truck criteria.     

A multicriteria approach to sustainable energy supply for the rural poor

Despite significant progress in energy technology, about two billion people worldwide, particularly the poor in rural areas of developing countries, have no access to electricity. Decision-making concerning the most appropriate energy technology for supplying these areas has been difficult; existing energy decision-support tools have been useful but are mostly incomplete. Trade-offs, as well as impacts that can be positive or negative, may emerge as a result of implementing modern forms of energy. These can affect both community’s livelihoods as well as the confidence of decision-makers in relation to alternative technologies. The paper discusses a newly designed multicriteria approach and its novel robustness analysis for selecting energy generation systems for the improvement of livelihoods in rural areas. The proposed methodology builds upon a sustainable rural livelihoods framework to address multiple interactions and calculate trade-offs aimed at boosting decision-makers’ confidence in the selected technologies. The methodology is tested via a case study in Colombia.     

A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on “cry wolf syndrome” in the case of a landslide

This study proposes a model that clarifies how disaster warning issuance conditions affect “cry wolf” syndrome. The disaster assumed in this study is landslide caused by heavy rainfall. Local authorities that issue disaster warnings are thought to tend to avoid the situation where casualty occurs without the issuance to residents of a disaster warning. As a result, the issuance conditions may be relaxed. Under this circumstance, however, the residents are thought to tend to ignore disaster warnings, since such warnings are inaccurate. Thus may emerge the “cry wolf” syndrome. In this study, a simulation model that expresses the behaviors of the local authority and the residents has been developed. For the purpose of demonstrating the model, numerical experiments were then carried out. In the numerical experiments, the effects of optimal issuance conditions for disaster warnings on the cost incurred by the resident were evaluated by using assumed parameters for the model.     

Linking stakeholder visions with resource allocation scenarios and multi-criteria assessment

Stakeholders and decision makers often develop visions of the ideal-type future as a response to complex societal problems and design their actions accordingly. However, these actors sometimes have a limited understanding as to whether their visions are feasible, what action is required and what the potential consequences are. This paper presents a methodology for linking visions with quantitative resource allocation scenarios which show different options in implementing the visions. The consequences are then appraised by multi-criteria assessment in order to find optimal and acceptable ways of implementation. As a result, stakeholders and decision makers learn about their visions and may even rethink them before decision making. The methodology thus couples visionary ideas with analytical information, providing a novel approach using quantitative techniques in a soft framework. The methodology is illustrated via a real-world case study concerning the future energy system in a small Swiss community.     

An exact branch-and-price algorithm for scheduling rescue units during disaster response

In disaster operations management, a challenging task for rescue organizations occurs when they have to assign and schedule their rescue units to emerging incidents under time pressure in order to reduce the overall resulting harm. Of particular importance in practical scenarios is the need to consider collaboration of rescue units. This task has hardly been addressed in the literature. We contribute to both modeling and solving this problem by (1) conceptualizing the situation as a type of scheduling problem, (2) modeling it as a binary linear minimization problem, (3) suggesting a branch-and-price algorithm, which can serve as both an exact and heuristic solution procedure, and (4) conducting computational experiments – including a sensitivity analysis of the effects of exogenous model parameters on execution times and objective value improvements over a heuristic suggested in the literature – for different practical disaster scenarios. The results of our computational experiments show that most problem instances of practically feasible size can be solved to optimality within ten minutes. Furthermore, even when our algorithm is terminated once the first feasible solution has been found, this solution is in almost all cases competitive to the optimal solution and substantially better than the solution obtained by the best known algorithm from the literature. This performance of our branch-and-price algorithm enables rescue organizations to apply our procedure in practice, even when the time for decision making is limited to a few minutes. By addressing a very general type of scheduling problem, our approach applies to various scheduling situations.     

Donation management for menu planning at soup kitchens

The food industry is confronted with a pressure to reduce waste and to make agreements on donating surplus food to charitable organizations. Charitable organizations such as food banks and soup kitchens can use these donations in preparing food parcels or meals for their clients. For soup kitchens, donation management is strongly influencing menu planning, and conversely, menu planning considerations have a strong impact on donation management decisions. To make the best use of (mostly highly perishable) food donations, we develop an MILP model for integrated donation management and menu planning that proposes a menu plan and suggests which (part of the) donations to accept. The combination of menu planning and donation management is essential for soup kitchens, but has not been studied before.The model is used to assess the impact of contracts on a strategic or tactical level, and captures operational decision making due to the integration of donation management and menu planning. To deal with meal variety considerations and to resemble planning practices, the developed model is solved in a rolling horizon. The results show that (i) the use of donations reduces overall costs for the soup kitchen; (ii) despite the short shelf life of donations, most donations can be used efficiently; and (iii) meal variety can be easily ensured and food donations increase this variety. In addition to the benefits for soup kitchens, the approach has implications for waste reduction in food supply chains, by structural/contractual donations of surplus food by retailers.     

Soft OR in China: A critical report

As China’s reform steps into the ‘deep water zone’ where value complexity becomes paramount, general-purpose decision-making aids such as Operational Research (OR) are increasingly confronted with the challenge of dealing with interest conflicts. However, due to historical events and institutional circumstances, OR in China to date is largely constrained by a technocratic approach which is not fit for purpose. Encouragingly, recent OR innovations inside China signify a conscious move to embrace value plurality and tackle social conflicts. OR is not merely a neutral tool for solving technical problems, but a world-building discourse that shapes society. The future of OR, particularly Soft OR, in China will be determined by whether OR workers are willing and capable to act as institutional entrepreneurs promoting scientific and democratic decision-making that deepens the reform toward an open, just and prosperous society. The implications go beyond the OR community and China’s borders.     

Complexity management in practice: A Viable System Model intervention in an Irish eco-community

While soft OR tools offer specific solutions to manage complexity in organisations, little is known concerning soft OR tools to deal with self-organisation in communities. This paper describes an action research project where the authors facilitated a process of self-organisation in a developing Irish eco-community whose members operate in a non-hierarchical, and cooperative fashion. We used the Viable System Model as a hermeneutical enabler of the community learning process concerning their self-organisation: by embedding VSM distinctions, they redesigned their primary tasks and developed meta-systemic management tools to deal with the complexity they were facing. Observations of the dynamics of the self-organising process over a period of 3 years show the community designed their roles and tasks more effectively, improved the connectivity of roles, and in general, their viability and sustainability. We reflect on the distinctiveness of the methods used, and their contributions to research in soft OR in community projects.     

Public facility location using dispersion,population, and equity criteria

From a practical perspective, the paper demonstrates that the appropriate use of dispersion, population, and equity criteria can lead to fairly good solutions with respect to the p-median objective. The only stipulation is that the decision maker verifies (through simple constraint checks) that the chosen locations meet the dispersion, population, and equity criteria. An empirical investigation is conducted to obtain appropriate values for these parameters. From a location science perspective, a new location model that accounts for equity and efficiency simultaneously is studied and analyzed. Specifically, the p-maxian problem with side constraints on dispersion, population, and equity is developed, its NP-completeness established, and valid inequalities and bounds derived. Computational tests show encouraging results.     

Stochastic models for strategic resource allocation in nonprofit foreclosed housing acquisitions

Increased rates of mortgage foreclosures in the U.S. have had devastating social and economic impacts during and after the 2008 financial crisis. As part of the response to this problem, nonprofit organizations such as community development corporations (CDCs) have been trying to mitigate the negative impacts of mortgage foreclosures by acquiring and redeveloping foreclosed properties. We consider the strategic resource allocation decisions for these organizations which involve budget allocations to different neighborhoods under cost and return uncertainty. Based on interactions with a CDC, we develop stochastic integer programming based frameworks for this decision problem, and assess the practical value of the models by using real-world data. Both policy-related and computational analyses are performed, and several insights such as the trade-offs between different objectives, and the efficiency of different solution approaches are presented.     

Actor analysis methods and their use for public policy analysts

Public policy analysts use methods rooted in OR and systems analysis to support policy makers in their judgement. In doing so, most policy analysts recognize the value of a certain understanding of the role of actors in policy making processes. Different methods are available to aid such understanding and, although they all focus on actors, there are important differences between them. Insight into the range of available methods and their characteristics will thus help policy analysts to learn more about the potential and limitations involved in analyzing multi-actor processes. This article provides such an overview, based on the main requirements these methods should meet. This overview is used to discuss some of the implications for policy analysts who are interested in analyzing multi-actor processes, focusing specifically on trade-offs between analytic quality and practical usability.     

When in a drug epidemic should the policy objective switch from use reduction to harm reduction?

A heated debate in drug policy concerns the relative merits of “harm reduction” (e.g., reducing drug-related HIV/AIDS transmission) vs. “use reduction” (controlling drug use per se). This paper models whether shifting emphasis between these goals over the course of a drug epidemic might reduce social costs relative to pursuing one or the other exclusively. Results suggest different answers for different drugs and/or countries. In particular, harm reduction may have always been effective for Australia’s injection drug use problem, but for US cocaine it may not have been in the past even if it could be so today. In certain circumstances harm reduction may “tip” an epidemic toward a high- rather than low-use equilibrium. The location in state space of regions where this occurs can be sensitive to parameter changes, suggesting caution may be in order when advocating harm reduction, unless there is confidence the epidemic has been modeled and parameterized accurately.     

Estimating the population utility function: A parametric Bayesian approach

In this paper we consider the health utility index mark II for quantifying and describing a population’s health related quality of life over health states composed of multiple attributes. This measure can be used for various purposes such as evaluating the severity of the effect of a disease or comparing different treatment methods. We present a Bayesian framework for population utility estimation and health policy evaluation by introducing a probabilistic interpretation of the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) used in health economics. In doing so, our approach combines ideas from the MAUT and Bayesian statistics and provides an alternative method of modeling preferences and utility estimation.     

Optimizing the marriage market: An application of the linear assignment model

Research shows that the success of marriages and other intimate partnerships depends on objective attributes such as differences in age, cultural background, and educational level. This article proposes a mathematical approach to optimizing marriage by allocating spouses in such a way as to reduce the likelihood of divorce or separation. To produce our optimization model, we use the assumption of a central “agency” that would coordinate the matching of couples. Based on a representative and longitudinal sample of 1074 cohabiting and married couples living in Switzerland, we estimate various objective functions corresponding to age, education, ethnicity, and prior divorce concerning every possible combination of men and women. Our results show that the current state of marriages or partnerships is well below the social optimum. We reallocate approximately 68% of individuals (7 out of 10) to a new couple that we posit has a higher likelihood of survival. From this selection of new partners, we obtain our final “optimal” solutions, with a 21% reduction in the objective function.     

A Markov model for single-leg air cargo revenue management under a bid-price policy

In this paper, we consider the capacity allocation problem in single-leg air cargo revenue management. We assume that each cargo booking request is endowed with a random weight, volume and profit rate and propose a Markovian model for the booking request/acceptance/rejection process. The decision on whether to accept the booking request or to reserve the capacity for future bookings follows a bid-price control policy. In particular, a cargo will be accepted only when the revenue from accepting it exceeds the opportunity cost, which is calculated based on bid prices. Optimal solutions are derived by maximizing a reward function of a Markov chain. Numerical comparisons between the proposed approach and two existing static single-leg air cargo capacity allocation policies are presented.     

An empirical method for assessing the research relevance gap

There has been much debate on the relevance to firms of the academic research produced by business schools. However, what has not received as much attention is how the relevance of the research to businesses should be measured in a systematic and empirical way. We develop a systematic method to test for the relevance of academic research to businesses. Our method models as a vector autoregressive process the interests of the academic and practitioner communities in some new topic, as expressed by the number of articles published in the academic and the practitioner literature on that topic per calendar quarter, and then studies Granger causality between the academic and practitioner interest processes. This method can be used by academics to empirically demonstrate the impact of their intellectual contributions on practitioners and thence on the business world. We employ our approach to two relatively new and important topics, Real Options and Economic Value Added.     

Wildfire fuel management: Network-based models and optimization of prescribed burning

Wildfires are a common phenomenon on most continents. They have occurred for an estimated 60 million years and are part of a regular climatic cycle. Nevertheless, wildfires represent a real and continuing problem that can have a major impact on people, wildlife and the environment. The intensity and severity of wildfires can be reduced through fuel management activities. The most common and effective fuel management activity is prescribed burning. We propose a multi-period optimization framework based on mixed integer programming (MIP) techniques to determine the optimal spatial allocation of prescribed burning activities over a finite planning horizon. In contrast to the existing fuel management optimization literature, we model fuel accumulation with Olson’s equation. To capture potential fire spread along with irregular landscape connectivity considerations, we use a graph-theoretical approach that allows us to exploit graph connectivity measures (e.g., the number of connected components) as optimization objectives. The resulting mathematical programs can be tackled by general purpose MIP solvers, while for handling larger instances we propose a simple heuristic. Our computational experiments with test instances constructed based on real-life data reveal interesting insights and demonstrate the advantages and limitations of the proposed approaches.     

Technology adoption with limited foresight and uncertain technological learning

Most previous optimization models on technology adoption assume perfect foresight over the long term. In reality, decision-makers do not have perfect foresight, and the endogenous driving force of technology adoption is uncertain. With a stylized optimization model, this paper explores the adoption of a new technology, its associated cost dynamics, and technological bifurcations with limited foresight and uncertain technological learning. The study shows that when modeling with limited foresight and technological learning, (1) the longer the length of the decision period, the earlier the adoption of a new technology, and the value of a foresight can be amplified with a high learning rate. However, when the decision period is beyond a certain length, further extending its length has little influence on adopting the new technology; (2) with limited foresight, decisions aiming at minimizing the total cost of each decision period will commonly result in a non-optimal solution from the perspective of the entire decision horizon; and (3) the range of technological bifurcation is much larger than that with perfect foresight, but uncertainty in technological learning tends to reduce the range by removing the early adoption paths of a new technology.