Particle filtering in the Dempster–Shafer theory

This paper derives a particle filter algorithm within the Dempster–Shafer framework. Particle filtering is a well-established Bayesian Monte Carlo technique for estimating the current state of a hidden Markov process using a fixed number of samples. When dealing with incomplete information or qualitative assessments of uncertainty, however, Dempster–Shafer models with their explicit representation of ignorance often turn out to be more appropriate than Bayesian models.The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the Dempster–Shafer formalism is applied to the problem of maintaining a belief distribution over the state space of a hidden Markov process by deriving the corresponding recursive update equations, which turn out to be a strict generalization of Bayesian filtering. Second, it is shown how the solution of these equations can be efficiently approximated via particle filtering based on importance sampling, which makes the Dempster–Shafer approach tractable even for large state spaces. The performance of the resulting algorithm is compared to exact evidential as well as Bayesian inference.     

随机系统的状态与参数估计

本文根据Ｋａｌｍａｎ滤波与时间序列分析的理论，对非线性随机系统，导出了状与参数同时进行估计的递推算法，确定了它们的统计性质。为减少估计误差，用两层估计方法改进了估计精度。这个结果在ＳＩＳＯ系统中得到了证实。     

A new approach to filtering and adaptive control

A simple distribution-free method is proposed for directly estimating and updating a criterion function without recourse to prior state space specification, updated state probabilities, and Bayes' rule. Optimality properties and efficiency advantages of the method are illustrated in terms of a two-armed bandit problem. The relationship between direct criterion function estimation and Kalman-Bucy filtering is clarified.     

State estimation for partially observed jump processes

In this paper partially observed jump processes are considered and optimal filtering equations are given for the conditional expectation of a functional on the past of the process.Rudemo [6] derived filtering equations for a partially observed jump Markov process. Snyder [3] gives equations for the conditional characteristic function of a jump process. Segall et al. [2] discuss filtering for processes with counting observations. Their work carries over to processes with counting observations the martingale methods that Fujisaki et al. [1] had used to derive nonlinear filtering equations for processes governed by Ito equations. Many further references to filtering for processes with discrete state measurements are given in the references cited.The objective of this paper is to show that by making use of the concept of a representation of a functional the idea of Rudemo's proof of [6, pp. 595–599] can be carried over to jump processes. The author feels that this is a very interesting proof because of its simplicity. It involves only calculations with conditional expectations and the rule for differentiation of a quotient.     

Particle Filters with Nudging in Multiscale Chaotic Systems: With Application to the Lorenz ’96 Atmospheric Model

This paper presents reduced-order nonlinear filtering schemes based on a theoretical framework that combines stochastic dimensional reduction and nonlinear filtering. Here, dimensional reduction is achieved for estimating the slow-scale process in a multiscale environment by constructing a filter using stochastic averaging results. The nonlinear filter is approximated numerically using the ensemble Kalman filter and particle filter. The particle filter is further adapted to the complexities of inherently chaotic signals. In particle filters, an ensemble of particles is used to represent the distribution of the state of the hidden signal. The ensemble is updated using observation data to obtain the best representation of the conditional density of the true state variables given observations. Particle methods suffer from the “curse of dimensionality,” an issue of particle degeneracy within a sample, which increases exponentially with system dimension. Hence, particle filtering in high dimensions can benefit from some form of dimensional reduction. A control is superimposed on particle dynamics to drive particles to locations most representative of observations, in other words, to construct a better prior density. The control is determined by solving a classical stochastic optimization problem and implemented in the particle filter using importance sampling techniques.

     

Estimation and control for linear,partially observable systems with non-gaussian initial distribution

The nonlinear filtering problem of estimating the state of a linear stochastic system from noisy observations is solved for a broad class of probability distributions of the initial state. It is shown that the conditional density of the present state, given the past observations, is a mixture of Gaussian distributions, and is parametrically determined by two sets of sufficient statistics which satisfy stochastic DEs; this result leads to a generalization of the Kalman–Bucy filter to a structure with a conditional mean vector, and additional sufficient statistics that obey nonlinear equations, and determine a generalized (random) Kalman gain. The theory is used to solve explicitly a control problem with quadratic running and terminal costs, and bounded controls.     

H∞ estimation for fuzzy membership function optimization

Given a fuzzy logic system, how can we determine the membership functions that will result in the best performance? If we constrain the membership functions to a specific shape (e.g., triangles or trapezoids) then each membership function can be parameterized by a few variables and the membership optimization problem can be reduced to a parameter optimization problem. The parameter optimization problem can then be formulated as a nonlinear filtering problem. In this paper we solve the nonlinear filtering problem using H_∞ state estimation theory. However, the membership functions that result from this approach are not (in general) sum normal. That is, the membership function values do not add up to one at each point in the domain. We therefore modify the H_∞ filter with the addition of state constraints so that the resulting membership functions are sum normal. Sum normality may be desirable not only for its intuitive appeal but also for computational reasons in the real time implementation of fuzzy logic systems. The methods proposed in this paper are illustrated on a fuzzy automotive cruise controller and compared to Kalman filtering based optimization.     

Nonlinear Filtering for Diffusions in Random Environments

Suppose that the signal X to be estimated is a diffusion process in a random medium W and the signal is correlated with the observation noise. We study the historical filtering problem concerned with estimating the signal path up until the current time based upon the back observations. Using Dirichlet form theory, we introduce a filtering model for general rough signal X ^W and establish a multiple Wiener integrals representation for the unnormalized pathspace filtering process. Then, we construct a precise nonlinear filtering model for the process X itself and give the corresponding Wiener chaos decomposition.     

State theory of linear hereditary differential systems

In this paper we present a state theory for a class of linear functional differential equations of the retarded type considered by Delfour and Mitter (J. Differential Equations, 18 1975, 18–28) with initial functions in the product space M^p = X × L^p(?b, 0; X). Roughly speaking, the state at time t is a piece of trajectory defined over an interval [t ? b, t] for a fixed b > 0. From a study of the properties of the state in M^p an operational differential equation, the so-called state equation, is derived in order to describe its evolution. An adjoint state equation is also introduced for the adjoint state and the connection between solutions of the hereditary adjoint system and those of the adjoint state equation is established. All this provides the appropriate framework for the solution and the numerical approximation of the associated linear-quadratic optimal control and filtering problems.     

Nonparametric multi-step prediction in nonlinear state space dynamic systems

Filtering and smoothing of stochastic state space dynamic systems have benefited from several generations of estimation approaches since the seminal works of Kalman in the sixties. A set of global analytical or numerical methods are now available, such as the well-known sequential Monte Carlo particle methods which offer some theoretical convergence results for both types of problems. However except in the case of linear Gaussian systems, objectives of the third kind i.e. prediction objectives, which aim at estimating k time steps ahead the anticipated probability density function of the system state variables, conditional on past and present system output observations, still raise theoretical and practical difficulties. The aim of this paper is to propose a nonparametric particle multi-step prediction method able to consistently estimate such anticipated conditional pdf of the state variables as well as their expectations.     

Markovian decision approach in housing policy

This article includes an empirical study of the housing market using the statistical method of Markov Process. The first phase of the study is devoted to measuring the filtering process in a selected neighborhood by estimating probabilities of transition from one income group to another, over the period 1949–1969 using four-year intervals. The estimated transition probabilities are then used to forecast occupancy structure for different periods and the suitability of applying the Markov Process for long term policy analysis in housing is examined. The final phase of the study includes an examination of steady state occupancy structure by various income categories of household. The study indicates a fruitful application of the Markov Process in long term housing policy analysis.     

Adaptive coupled synchronization among multi-Lorenz systems family

In this paper, the adaptive synchronization method of coupled system is proposed for multi-Lorenz systems family. This method can avoid estimating the value of coupling coefficient. Strict theoretical proofs are given. And we derived a sufficient condition of synchronization for a general unidirectional coupling ring network with N identical Lorenz systems. The network is coupled through the first state variable of each equation. In fact, the whole unidirectional coupling network will synchronize by adding only one adaptive feedback gain equation. Numerical simulations show the effectiveness of the methods.     

Optimal sensitivity based on IPOPT

We introduce a flexible, open source implementation that provides the optimal sensitivity of solutions of nonlinear programming (NLP) problems, and is adapted to a fast solver based on a barrier NLP method. The program, called sIPOPT evaluates the sensitivity of the Karush?CKuhn?CTucker (KKT) system with respect to perturbation parameters. It is paired with the open-source IPOPT NLP solver and reuses matrix factorizations from the solver, so that sensitivities to parameters are determined with minimal computational cost. Aside from estimating sensitivities for parametric NLPs, the program provides approximate NLP solutions for nonlinear model predictive control and state estimation. These are enabled by pre-factored KKT matrices and a fix-relax strategy based on Schur complements. In addition, reduced Hessians are obtained at minimal cost and these are particularly effective to approximate covariance matrices in parameter and state estimation problems. The sIPOPT program is demonstrated on four case studies to illustrate all of these features.     

Some consequences of estimating parameters for the M/M/1 queue

An important interface between stochastic models and actual systems comes in estimating values for model parameters using “real world” data. This interface between models and systems is studied for one of the most elementary stochastic systems, the M/M/1 queue. Estimating arrival rates and service rates results in a notable discrepancy between the state distribution for the model (estimated parameters) and the state distribution for the actual system (known parameters). Also, the expected number of customers in the model is infinite regardless of the (unknown) value of the actual traffic intensity. The truth of this assertion is obvious if one allows estimated traffic intensities to equal or exceed one. However, it is shown that the mean for the model is infinite even if the estimated traffic intensity is restricted to be strictly less than one.     

Fast and Flexible ADMM Algorithms for Trend Filtering

This article presents a fast and robust algorithm for trend filtering, a recently developed nonparametric regression tool. It has been shown that, for estimating functions whose derivatives are of bounded variation, trend filtering achieves the minimax optimal error rate, while other popular methods like smoothing splines and kernels do not. Standing in the way of a more widespread practical adoption, however, is a lack of scalable and numerically stable algorithms for fitting trend filtering estimates. This article presents a highly efficient, specialized alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) routine for trend filtering. Our algorithm is competitive with the specialized interior point methods that are currently in use, and yet is far more numerically robust. Furthermore, the proposed ADMM implementation is very simple, and, importantly, it is flexible enough to extend to many interesting related problems, such as sparse trend filtering and isotonic trend filtering. Software for our method is freely available, in both the C and R languages.     

On designing H∞ fault estimator for switched nonlinear systems of neutral type

This paper deals with the problem of fault estimation for a class of switched nonlinear systems of neutral type. The nonlinearities are assumed to satisfy global Lipschitz conditions and appear in both the state and measured output equations. By employing a switched observer-based fault estimator, the problem is formulated as an H_∞ filtering problem. Sufficient delay-dependent existence conditions of the H_∞ fault estimator (H_∞-FE) are given in terms of certain matrix inequalities based on the average dwell time approach. In addition, by using cone complementarity algorithm, the solutions to the observer gain matrices are obtained by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

A Variational Finite Element Model for Large-Eddy Simulations of Turbulent Flows

The authors introduce a new Large Eddy Simulation model in a channel,based on the projection on finite element spaces as filtering operation in its variational form,for a given triangulation{Th}h>0.The eddy viscosity is expressed in terms of the friction velocity in the boundary layer due to the wall,and is of a standard sub grid-model form outside the boundary layer.The mixing length scale is locally equal to the grid size.The computational domain is the channel without the linear sub-layer of the boundary layer.The no-slip boundary condition(or BC for short)is replaced by a Navier(BC)at the computational wall.Considering the steady state case,the authors show that the variational finite element model they have introduced,has a solution(vh,ph)h>0that converges to a solution of the steady state Navier-Stokes equation with Navier BC.     

Application of nonlinear filtering to credit risk

Merton’s model views equity as a call option on the asset of the firm. Thus the asset is partially observed through the equity. Then using nonlinear filtering an explicit expression for likelihood ratio for underlying parameters in terms of the nonlinear filter is obtained. As the evolution of the filter itself depends on the parameters in question, this does not permit direct maximum likelihood estimation, but does pave the way for the ‘Expectation-Maximization’ method for estimating parameters.     

Optimal estimation of Eulerian velocity field given Lagrangian observations

The problem of estimating an Eulerian velocity field given particle trajectories is formulated as an optimal filtering problem. Under the idealistic assumption that the Eulerian velocity field is delta-correlated in time (Kraichnan model) the exact solution of the non-linear filtering problem is found. In a more realistic Markov model with finite correlation time an approximate solution is suggested and examined by Monte Carlo means.