带有长期趋势的近似周期时间序列的刻度变换估计

近似周期时间序列具有近似的周期趋势,即近似周期性.所谓近似周期性是指它看起来有周期性,但是每个周期的长度不是常数,比如太阳黑子数序列.近似周期时间序列在社会经济现象建模中有着广泛的应用前景.对于近似周期时间序列,关键在于刻画它的近似周期趋势,因为一旦近似周期趋势被刻画出来它就可以作为一个普通的时间序列来处理.然而,关于近似周期趋势刻画的研究却很少. 本文首先建立一些必要的理论,特别地,提出了带长度压缩的保形变换概念,并且得到了带长度压缩的线性保形变换的充分必要,然后基于此理论作者提出了一种估计尺度变换的方法,该方法可以很好地估计出近似周期趋势.最后,对一个仿真实例进行了分析.结果表明,本文所提出的方法强力有效.     

以库存成本为中心的航空备件决策分析

在分析库存成本的基础上,根据等周期补货原则,确定了在一定时间跨度内的缺货时间点、补货时间点及每次的补充量;根据补货周期内部缺货的时间长度与周期长度界定了库存服务水平;最后通过算例对备件决策中的各要素与库存成本的关系进行了分析.     

q元m序列非周期自相关函数的估计与M序列的分段线性化

序列的非周期自相关函数的估计,具有良好非周期自相关性的序列的构造,以及非线性M序列的相关性等方面已有的成果较少.著名的Barker序列当长度大于13时是否存在的问题尚未完全解决,L序列的非周期自相关函数的估计仅在长度较短时有一些数值计算结果,文献曾估计了一类二元序列非周期自相关函数的上界.最近,章照止巧妙地应用组合数学方法估计了状态两两不同的二元序列中一元的个数(在这基础     

近似周期时间序列分析（英文）

本文首先给出了近似周期时间序列概念,即:具有周期特征但是周期长度变化的时间序列.比如,太阳黑子序列具有11年左右的周期,但是其周期并不是11,而是在11左右变化,这就是一个近似周期序列.然后给出了提取近似周期趋势方法,并且提出了广义差分算子,这里提出的广义差分算子不仅可以消除时间序列的长期趋势和周期性,而且还可以消除近似周期性.最后,以太阳黑子序列为例说明了广义差分算子的应用.     

环F_p+vF_p上一类常循环码的周期分布

文章研究了有限环R=F_p+vF_p上一类任意长度的θ-常循环码的周期分布,其中v~2=v和θ=λ+v u.利用环R上θ-常循环码的结构的分解,将该环上这类常循环码的周期转化成两个对应的常循环码的周期的乘积.     

环Z_(p~m)上一类常循环码的周期分布

设λ是环Z_(p~m)的单位群中阶为l的元素,且l与p互素,本文研究了Z_(p~m)上长度为n的λ-常循环码的周期分布,其中gcd p(,n)=1.通过对环Z_(p~m)上长度为n的λ-常循环码结构的直和分解,给出其周期分布的计算公式.     

线性递归序列模q

设{uk}k≥0为一个线性递归序列.序列{uk(mod q)}k≥0是周期的,很多人都对其周期有过研究.本文应用二次数域中理想的理论,较完全地刻画了二次线性递归序列模q的周期长度,所获结果加强并推广了Engstrom及Wall的结论.     

实二次无理数连分数展开式周期的长度

<正> §1.引言与结果 对无平方因子正整数D>1,命为简单连分数展开式周期的长度,J.H.E.Cohn证明了~~     

基于滤波技术的首都旅游贸易发展趋势与周期研究

运用HP滤波技术,实证拟合了首都旅游贸易的发展趋势和周期.在对时间序列分离出趋势和周期之后,采用多项式拟合给出了趋势值的经验回归表达式,在此基础上,分析了剔除趋势后的贸易周期特征.研究表明,改革开放的前10年,首都旅游贸易的出口周期性表现并不明显;之后至今的20年,则呈现显著周期特征,周期长度大约5-7年,但这种周期变化也不具有稳定性.对比我国经济发展历程,首都旅游贸易出口周期与宏观经济增长周期高度一致,显示出其对宏观经济发展具有高度敏感性,因此必须重视宏观经济减速给首都旅游贸易带来的衰退影响.另外,重大事件对首都旅游贸易的影响也不容忽视.     

基于季节性RBF神经网络的月度市场需求预测研究

本文提出一种季节性神经网络预测模型,对具有季节性变化的产品月度市场需求进行预测.在Matlab语言环境下,用傅立叶周期分析法得到时间序列的周期长度;借鉴嵌入理论,提出了确定季节性神经网络输入维数的策略;利用计算机程序搜索,确定最优参数;通过合理插值,重构样本集.仿真实验表明,该模型的预测精度明显高于其他几个常用的季节预测模型.     

修正的Newman-Watts小世界及其上随机游走的混合时

在一个常规构建的图中加"长边(shortcuts)"会得到一个小世界模型,这是经典的构造小世界模型的方法.最近,吴宪远在文[Internet Mathematics,DOI:10.1080/15427951,2015.101208]中指出,在加"长边"过程中加的所有边,只有与图的直径成正比才会对小世界模型的构造起决定性作用.我们依据此文的加边机制,对体积为n~d的d(d≥1)维格点图,只添加起决定性作用的长边,得到的小世界模型修正了原始的Newman-Watts小世界模型,并证明该模型的直径和混合时是log n阶的.     

平面上含鞍结点与中心型鞍点的余维3环的三参数开折

本文应用有限光滑正规形理论研究了含有一个重数为2的鞍结点与一个中心型双曲鞍点（双曲比率为1）的余维3的平面环（Polycycle）的一般三参数开折与环性,证明了这类环至多分支出三条极限环,并且在一般性条件下环性为3,给出了分支图和相应的相图．作为应用,证明了文［4］提出的图（I192）环性为1的猜想．     

The Hopf cyclicity of Lienard systems

We study the Hopf cyclicity for general systems on the plane and establish an algebraic method to compute the Hopf cyclicity for a general Lienard system.     

Opinion dynamics with the contrarian deterministic effect and human mobility on lattice

Opinion dynamics under the influence of the contrarian deterministic effect and human mobility on the two‐dimensional lattice is studied. In the model, the opinion is a binary variable and some shortcuts are added with the adding probability P_s. At each time step, each agent with shortcuts is chosen as the mobile one with the mobility probability P_m and moves to one of his immobile neighbors along shortcuts randomly. Then, the immobile agents update their opinions based on the majority rule with p_f, which is the Fermi function of the interaction noise T due to the contrarian deterministic effect. We find that some appropriate interaction noise T enhances the formation of community around T_c. And human mobility enhances the formation of community when , where T_c is equal to the average degree and independent of the network size N and the mobility probability P_m through the theoretical and numerical analysis. Furthermore, we also find that the system with larger degree and the self‐feedback of agent have stronger robustness in the opinion formation with the contrarian deterministic effect. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 20: 43–49, 2015     

Cyclicity of planar polycycles and ensembles with codimension 3 degeneration through a saddle-node and two hyperbolic saddles

The cyclicity of four classes of codimension 3 plnnar polycycles and ensembles containing a saddle-node and two hyperbdic saddles is dealt with. The exnct cyclicity or cyclicity bound of them is obtained by finitely-smooth normal form theory.     

Cyclicity of graphs

The cyclicity of a graph is the largest integer n for which the graph is contractible to the cycle on n vertices. By analyzing the cycle space of a graph, we establish upper and lower bounds on cyclicity. These bounds facilitate the computation of cyclicity for several classes of graphs, including chordal graphs, complete n-partite graphs, n-cubes, products of trees and cycles, and planar graphs. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. J Graph Theory 32: 160–170, 1999     

Small worlds

Small world models are networks consisting of many local links and fewer long range ‘shortcuts’. In this paper, we consider some particular instances, and rigorously investigate the distribution of their inter‐point network distances. Our results are framed in terms of approximations, whose accuracy increases with the size of the network. We also give some insight into how the reduction in typical inter‐point distances occasioned by the presence of shortcuts is related to the dimension of the underlying space. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Random Struct. Alg., 19, 54–74, 2001     

Cyclicity of homoclinic loops and degenerate cubic Hamiltonians

New conditions for a planar homoclinic loop to have cyclicity two under multiple parameter perturbations have been obtained. As an application it is proved that a homoclinic loop of a nongeneric cubic Hamiltonian has cyclicity two under arbitrary quadratic perturbations.     

Use of cyclicity for solving some matrix problems

We look for methods and conditions to make use of cyclicity in some matrix problems, not only for parallel computation but also to reduce the problem size and accelerate convergence. It has been shown that some form of reducibility, not necessarily cyclicity, is enough for such purposes.