A stochastic approach to the flood control problem

We propose a stochastic model in conjunction with reliability analysis concepts to improve estimates for the protection volume that should be allocated in a reservoir to control a flood wave. In this approach, the inflow that reaches the reservoir during a flood is considered to be a load, and the reservoir capacity to control this flood is considered to be the resistance that the reservoir offers against the propagation of the flood. Here, the load and the resistance are modeled as a diffusion stochastic process, and the protection volume is determined via Itô's formula. In this scenario, an explicit formula for the failure risk is derived. The parameter inference is carried out by a Bayesian approach for a time discrete version of the load, and the estimates are obtained by using Monte Carlo Markov Chain Algorithms (MCMC). The maximum likelihood estimators are used in the comparison. The record utilized comprises nine years of daily inflow rates during flood periods that come to the Chavantes hydroelectric power plant (CHPP) in Southeast Brazil. The protection volumes estimated through the proposed model are compared to the volumes obtained by other existing methods.     

A model for dynamic chance constraints in hydro power reservoir management

In this paper, a model for (joint) dynamic chance constraints is proposed and applied to an optimization problem in water reservoir management. The model relies on discretization of the decision variables but keeps the probability distribution continuous. Our approach relies on calculating probabilities of rectangles which is particularly useful in the presence of independent random variables but works equally well in the case of correlated variables. Numerical results are provided for two and three stages.     

Reservoir flood control operation based on chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm

Reservoir flood control operation is a complex engineering optimization problem with a large number of constraints. In order to solve this problem, a chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO) algorithm based on the improved logistic map is presented, which uses the discharge flow process as the decision variables combined with the death penalty function. According to the principle of maximum eliminating flood peak, a novel flood control operation model has been established with the goal of minimum standard deviation of the discharge flow process. At the same time, a piecewise linear interpolation function (PLIF) is applied to deal with the constraints for solving objective function. The performance of the proposed model and method is evaluated on two typical floods of Three Gorges reservoir. In comparison with existing models and other algorithms, the proposed model and algorithm can generate better solutions with the minimal flood peak discharge and the maximal peak-clipping rate for reservoir flood control operation.     

Risk estimate of rice damaged due to flood

Flood is one of the main disasters which cause rice damage in many countries. In this paper we investigate the risk of rice damaged due to flood by analyzing its statistical property and deterministic behavior from the thirty-six years of data in Taiwan. First, we calculate the Jarque–Bera coefficient, skewness, and kurtosis to see that the rice damage is not a normal distribution. Next, we use the correlation dimension (CD) and statistical correlation dimension (SCD) to see that both of the time series of flood and associated damages show the chaotic behavior. Finally, we also use the Hurst rescaled range analysis to confirm the properties. The results we found are useful in the risk estimate of rice damaged due to flood.     

胜利断块油藏细分注水技术界限研究

老油田进入特高含水期后,剩余油分布更加零散,各种地质因素也因长期注水开发而发生了一定的改变.此时稳油控水难度进一步加大,为了进一步挖掘剩余油,控制含水上升速度、减缓产量递减,必须对注水井采取进一步的细分调整.基于水湿油藏注水井注水层段吸水效果,从注入水受力分析入手,运用达西定律推导出了水驱油藏水驱油全过程中的单位体积注入水沿竖直、地层两个方向运移的渗流速度公式,明晰了水驱油藏注水层段不同开发阶段砂岩吸水机理.研究结果表明,水驱油藏细分注水效果与岩石绝对渗透率、水相相对渗透率、注入水黏度、水动力压力梯度、注水井启动压力梯度、含水饱和度、地层倾角、油水密度差等参数有关.结合胜利油田断块油藏地质特征及细分注水工艺要求,制定了一套适合胜利油田不同断块区的细分注水技术政策界限:层段内渗透率变异系数小于0.3,砂岩条带宽度极比小于2.5,且东辛油区断块油藏层段内砂岩厚度小于6m,小层数小于4个;现河油区断块油藏层段内砂岩厚度小于5m,小层数小于5个;临盘油区断块油藏层段内砂岩厚度小于6m,小层数小于6个.矿场试验证实,该细分注水技术政策界限是合理、实用的,其为胜利断块油藏注上水、注够水、注好水,实现多层断块油藏的高效开发提供了技术保障,对类似油藏细分注水技术界限研究具有一定的借鉴意义.     

随机微分方程数值解在泄洪风险分析中的应用

根据泄洪过程中库水位过程的随机微分方程,利用数值解方法,模拟了随机干扰下的库水位及其波动状况.采用相应公式计算了洪水漫越坝顶事件的概率以及库水位过程在不同时刻的样本均值.并通过比较在同样强度的随机干扰下库水位的高低状况,确定出各种泄洪方案的优劣,从而对防洪工作具有重要的指导意义.     

Three-person multi-objective conflict decision in reservoir flood control

Reservoir flood control decisions are often compromised by various parties with conflicting benefits. In this paper, a three-person multi-objective conflict decision model is presented for reservoir flood control. In order to obtain the group decision, the ideal bargaining solution is first sought by two stages satisfying programming and then the decision alternative is chosen using the fuzzy pattern recognition. The advantages of this model are simple and more adaptable to the real problem. The model is demonstrated by application to Fengman Reservoir in China.     

Optimal scheduling of reservoir releases during flood: Deterministic optimization problem,part 1, procedure

In this paper, we are concerned with the optimal scheduling of water releases from retention reservoirs during flood, with the objective of minimizing flood damages at the important damage centers downstream of the reservoirs. Unlike in most other papers devoted to this subject, the flood routing equations are nonlinear. The performance index of the problem leads to a minimax optimal control problem. For this problem, the necessary optimality conditions are provided and a version of the feasible directions method is proposed.The research reported here has been supported by the Central Basic Research Program CPBP-03.09, Metody Analizy i Uytkowania Zasobow Wodnych, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland. This support is kindly acknowledged.     

应用模糊综合评判方法识别低效循环井

在油田注水开发过程中,由于储层平面非均质性、流体非均质性及开发条件的影响,在平面上会出现注入水突进的情况.注水井中的注入水向不同方向驱油,推进往往是不均匀的,一般总有一个方向突进最快,且经过长期水洗之后,这个方向有可能发展成"水道",形成注入水的低效循环.建立了应用模糊综合评判方法识别低效循环井的数学模型,通过实例分析表明,运用综合评判方法识别低效循环井是一种客观有效的方法,该评价方法计算方便,易于操作和推广.     

Capacity Planning Model for a Multipurpose Water Reservoir with Target-Priority Operation

We consider the capacity determination problem of a hydro reservoir. The reservoir is to be used primarily for hydropower generation; however, commitments on release targets for irrigation as well as mitigation of downstream flood hazards are also secondary objectives. This paper is concerned with studying the complex interaction among various system reliabilities (power, flood, irrigation, etc.) and to provide decision makers a planning tool for further investigation. The main tool is an optimization model that recognizes the randomness in streamflow. The model incorporates a special target-priority policy according to given system reliabilities. Optimized values are then used in a simulation model to investigate the system behavior. Detailed computational results are provided.     

A Common Regularization for Three Reservoir Optimal Control Problems

Four optimal control problems of reservoir release are investigated. The first problem is to minimize the peak release in order to prevent flood and to reduce the flood height. The second problem is to maximize the lowest release in order to ensure irrigation, water supply, shipping and environment downstream. The third problem is to minimize the flooding duration in order to reduce damage to goods, possessions, plants, levees, etc. It is shown that these three problems may possess infinitely many different optimal solutions, but they all have a common optimal solution, which is the unique optimal solution of the fourth problem. Since this unique optimal solution depends continuously on the input data, the fourth problem is well-posed and it can be considered as a common regularization of the three ill-posed problems.     

洪灾综合风险分析方法讨论(Ⅱ)——基于集对分析理论

对洪灾系统作综合风险研究,已是防洪减灾理论发展的一大趋势.在洪灾风险的同异反综合分析方法(概念模型)的基础上,以不确定性系数i对风险的影响为切入点,并进行适当的扩展与变换,将同异反综合分析方法进一步深入,建立了洪灾综合风险分析的模拟模型框架,初步得到了洪灾综合风险分析的可行途径.     

火驱效果分析与综合评价

对火驱效果的认识与评价是火驱油藏管理的重要环节,评价过程需要火驱机理和监测数据相结合,但目前缺少对火驱项目效果客观认识的方法.针对这一问题,把火驱看做原油氧化和气驱增产的综合效果,利用油藏监测数据结合火驱机理对火驱效果进行深入分析,进而建立涉及动态增产指标和动态监测指标的综合评价模型,采用层次分析法确定各指标权重,应用模糊综合评价方法对火驱效果进行全面的评价.结果表明,火驱模糊综合评价结论客观地反映火驱的效果,避免了单因素评价的片面性,使火驱效果评价系统化,定量化.     

An extended compromise ratio model with an application to reservoir flood control operation under an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment

This paper presents a novel multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) model based on the compromise ratio method under an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF) environment. The compromise ratio method under uncertainty is introduced by a group of experts based on the concept that the chosen alternative should be as close as possible to the IVIF-positive-ideal point and as far away from the IVIF-negative-ideal point as possible concurrently. First, an IVIF-weighted geometric averaging (IVIFWGA) operator is employed to aggregate all individual IVIF-decision matrices provided by a group of experts into a collective IVIF-decision matrix. Two new basic IVIF-operations are introduced to handle the evaluation process. Then, an extended collective index in an IVIF environment is proposed to discriminate among alternatives for the evaluation process in terms of subjective and objective information. Finally, to demonstrate the suitability and applicability of the proposed IVIF-MAGDM model, an application example of reservoir flood control operation is given from the recent literature.     

A dynamic multi-objective optimization model with interactivity and uncertainty for real-time reservoir flood control operation

Despite the successes of both multi-objective optimization and uncertainty handling techniques in reservoir flood control operation, no work has been done yet on developing and investigating dynamic multi-objective optimization models for this problem. In this work, a dynamic multi-objective optimization model with interactivity and uncertainty was developed for the real-time reservoir flood control operation. Accordingly, a dynamic multi-objective optimization algorithmic framework with two newly designed change reaction strategies was proposed for solving the proposed dynamic model. Following the proposed algorithmic framework, any evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm can be converted into a dynamic optimizer. After investigating the difficulty variation of the proposed dynamic model, the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed algorithmic framework have been validated based on experiential studies on two typical floods of Ankang reservoir.     

应用模糊综合评判方法识别水驱优势渗流通道井和层

在油田注水开发过程中,由于储层平面非均质性、流体非均质性及开发条件的影响,在平面上会出现注入水突进的情况.注水井中的注入水向不同方向驱油,推进往往是不均匀的,一般总有一个方向突进最快,且经过长期水洗之后,这个方向有可能发展成大孔道,形成水驱优势渗流通道.建立应用模糊综合评判方法识别水驱优势渗流通道井和层的数学模型,应用水驱优势渗流通道分析判定软件,对河南双河油田ⅦⅣ油组主力油层(Ⅷ1、Ⅳ1、4、5)274口井进行了实例计算,识别出水驱优势渗流通道油水井共97口,其中水井43口,油井54口,识别出14个水驱优势渗流层位.通过油藏工程和数值模拟方法进行了验证,表明运用综合评判方法识别水驱优势渗流通道井和层是一种客观有效的方法,评价方法计算方便,易于操作和推广.     

Approximating the irregularly shaped Pareto front of multi-objective reservoir flood control operation problem

Decomposition based multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA/D) has been proved to be effective on multi-objective optimization problems. However, it fails to achieve satisfactory coverage and uniformity on problems with irregularly shaped Pareto fronts, like the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) problem. To enhance the performance of MOEA/D on the real-world RFCO problem, a Pareto front relevant (PFR) decomposition method is developed in this paper. Different front the decomposition method in the original MOEA/D which is based on a unique reference point (i.e. the estimated ideal point), the PFR decomposition method uses a set of reference points which are uniformly sampled from the fitting model of the obtained Pareto front. As a result, the PFR decomposition method can provide more flexible adaptation to the Pareto front shapes of the target problems. Experimental studies on benchmark problems and typical RFCO problems at Ankang reservoir have illustrated that the proposed PFR decomposition method significantly improves the adaptivity of MOEA/D to the complex Pareto front shape of the RFCO problem and performs better both in terms of coverage and uniformity.     

洪灾综合风险分析方法讨论(Ⅰ)——基于集对分析理论

随着社会经济的发展及人们对洪水灾害认识的深入,洪灾风险的研究从单一风险转向综合风险,将是防洪减灾理论发展的必然趋势.根据洪灾风险的特性,引入信息的整体性原理,并应用集对分析理论对洪灾风险系统进行确定不确定分析,首次提出了洪灾系统风险的同异反分析方法.该方法将干旱、洪涝及其风险信息综合体现在洪水灾害系统的联系度中,从而为进一步开展详尽的综合风险分析奠定了理论基础.     

A novel far-boundary condition for the finite element analysis of infinite reservoir

The present paper deals with the finite element analysis of the reservoir of infinite extent using a novel far-boundary condition. The equations of motion are expressed in terms of the pressure only assuming water as inviscid and incompressible. The truncation boundary condition is developed numerically from the classical wave equation. Comparative studies show that the proposed far-boundary condition is numerically efficient and accurate over the existing ones, available in the literature. The effect of the geometry of the reservoir bed and the adjacent structure on the development hydrodynamic pressure has been studied. The results show that the geometry of the reservoir bed and as well as the adjacent structure has considerable effect on the development of hydrodynamic pressure at the dam–reservoir interface.     

Modelación del funcionamiento hidráulico de los dispositivos de aireación de desagües de fondo de presas mediante el método de partículas y elementos finitos

Dam bottom are key elements to control the water surface elevation below the spillway crest level. As a consequence, they are essential in reservoir management, and play a vital role in dam safety.The convenience of installing an aeration system in dam bottom outlets is well known nowadays. Otherwise, damages due to cavitation and vibration are frequently serious, as could be observed in several dams built in the beginning of the 20th century.The intrinsic features of the phenomenon make it hard to analyze either in situ or in full scaled experimental facilities. As a consequence, most of the previous studies have been carried out in small-scale physical models. The results of these works have been used to develop empirical formulas which provide an estimation of the maximum air demand of the aeration system.The progress in the development of numerical methods allows addressing this problem using numerical modeling. The Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM) had been previously applied and validated for the analysis of the performance of other hydraulic structures. In this work, it has been used to simulate air-water interaction in free-flowing gated conduits. The objective is to avoid the scale effects of physical modeling and to study in detail the key parameters. The results clarify the behaviour of the involved fluids (air and water) and provide information about the influence of the main variables that affect their circulation.