Bootstrapping continuous-time autoregressive processes

We develop a bootstrap procedure for Lévy-driven continuous-time autoregressive (CAR) processes observed at discrete regularly-spaced times. It is well known that a regularly sampled stationary Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process [i.e. a CAR(1) process] has a discrete-time autoregressive representation with i.i.d. noise. Based on this representation a simple bootstrap procedure can be found. Since regularly sampled CAR processes of higher order satisfy ARMA equations with uncorrelated (but in general dependent) noise, a more general bootstrap procedure is needed for such processes. We consider statistics depending on observations of the CAR process at the uniformly-spaced times, together with auxiliary observations on a finer grid, which give approximations to the derivatives of the continuous time process. This enables us to approximate the state-vector of the CAR process which is a vector-valued CAR(1) process, and whose sampled version, on the uniformly-spaced grid, is a multivariate AR(1) process with i.i.d. noise. This leads to a valid residual-based bootstrap which allows replication of CAR $(p)$ processes on the underlying discrete time grid. We show that this approach is consistent for empirical autocovariances and autocorrelations.     

First order autoregressive markov processes

This paper is concerned with establishing conditions under which finite (and then countably infinite) stationary Markov chains have first order autoregressive representations.     

Periodically correlated autoregressive Hilbertian processes

We consider periodically correlated autoregressive processes in Hilbert spaces. Our studies on these processes involve existence, covariance structure, estimation of the covariance operators, strong law of large numbers and central limit theorem.     

Asymptotic distinguishing of autoregressive processes

We study the behavior of the probability of errors of the Neumann-Pearson criterion under various null and alternative hypotheses by the results of observations of autoregressive processes.     

Adaptive estimates for autoregressive processes

Let {X _t :t=0, ±1, ±2, ...} be a stationaryrth order autoregressive process whose generating disturbances are independent identically distributed random variables with marginal distribution functionF. Adaptive estimates for the parameters of {X _t } are constructed from the observed portion of a sample path. The asymptotic efficiency of these estimates relative to the least squares estimates is greater than or equal to one for all regularF. The nature of the adaptive estimates encourages stable behavior for moderate sample sizes. A similar approach can be taken to estimation problems in the general linear model. This research was partially supported by National Science Foundation Grant GP-31091X. American Mathematical Society 1970 subject classification. Primary 62N10; Secondary 62G35. Key words and phrases: autoregressive process, adaptive estimates, robust estimates.     

Spatial autoregressive and moving average Hilbertian processes

This paper addresses the introduction and study of structural properties of Hilbert-valued spatial autoregressive processes (SARH(1) processes), and Hilbert-valued spatial moving average processes (SMAH(1) processes), with innovations given by two-parameter (spatial) matingale differences. For inference purposes, the conditions under which the tensorial product of standard autoregressive Hilbertian (ARH(1)) processes (respectively, of standard moving average Hilbertian (MAH(1)) processes) is a standard SARH(1) process (respectively, it is a standard SMAH(1) process) are studied. Examples related to the spatial functional observation of two-parameter Markov and diffusion processes are provided. Some open research lines are described in relation to the formulation of SARMAH processes, as well as General Spatial Linear Processes in Functional Spaces.     

Exit times for multivariate autoregressive processes

We study exit times from a set for a family of multivariate autoregressive processes with normally distributed noise. By using the large deviation principle, and other methods, we show that the asymptotic behavior of the exit time depends only on the set itself and on the covariance matrix of the stationary distribution of the process. The results are extended to exit times from intervals for the univariate autoregressive process of order n$n$, where the exit time is of the same order of magnitude as the exponential of the inverse of the variance of the stationary distribution.     

EWMA control charts for autoregressive processes

Many processes must be monitored by using observations that are correlated. An approach called algorithmic statistical process control can be employed in such situations. This involves fitting an autoregressive/moving average time series model to the data. Forecasts obtained from the model are used for active control, while the forecast errors are monitored by using a control chart. In this paper we consider using an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart for monitoring the residuals from an autoregressive model. We present a computational method for finding the out-of-control average run length (ARL) for such a control chart when the process mean shifts. As an application, we suggest a procedure and provide an example for finding the control limits of an EWMA chart for monitoring residuals from an autoregressive model that will provide an acceptable out-of-control ARL. A computer program for the needed calculations is provided via the World Wide Web.     

Bayesian inferences for several autoregressive processes

Several first-order autoregressive processes are studied using Bayesian analysis principles. These autoregressive processes are the same, except perhaps for the level of the process. A test is developed to detect possible level differences by using the mean value functions of these first-order autoregressive processes. To illustrate the test results, a numerical study is conducted using two time series groups.     

Moderate deviation principle for autoregressive processes

A moderate deviation principle for autoregressive processes is established. As statistical applications we provide the moderate deviation estimates of the least square and the Yule–Walker estimators of the parameter of an autoregressive process. The main assumption on the autoregressive process is the Gaussian integrability condition for the noise, which is weaker than the assumption of Logarithmic Sobolev Inequality in [H. Djellout, A. Guillin, L. Wu, Moderate deviations of empirical periodogram and nonlinear functionals of moving average processes, Ann. I. H. Poincaré-PR 42 (2006) 393–416].     

Large and moderate deviations for infinite-dimensional autoregressive processes

We consider large and moderate deviations for the empirical mean and covariance of hilbertian autoregressive processes. As an application we obtain moderate deviations principles for the eigenvalues and associated projectors of the empirical covariance.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for noncausal autoregressive processes

We discuss a maximum likelihood procedure for estimating parameters in possibly noncausal autoregressive processes driven by i.i.d. non-Gaussian noise. Under appropriate conditions, estimates of the parameters that are solutions to the likelihood equations exist and are asymptotically normal. The estimation procedure is illustrated with a simulation study for AR(2) processes.     

Sequential fixed accuracy estimation for nonstationary autoregressive processes

For an autoregressive process of order p, the paper proposes new sequential estimates for the unknown parameters based on the least squares (LS) method. The sequential estimates use p stopping rules for collecting the data and presumes a special modification the sample Fisher information matrix in the LS estimates. In case of Gaussian disturbances, the proposed estimates have non-asymptotic normal joint distribution for any values of unknown autoregressive parameters. It is shown that in the i.i.d. case with unspecified error distributions, the new estimates have the property of uniform asymptotic normality for unstable autoregressive processes under some general condition on the parameters. Examples of unstable autoregressive models satisfying this condition are considered.

     

Quasi-likelihood inference for self-exciting threshold integer-valued autoregressive processes

This article redefines the self-exciting threshold integer-valued autoregressive (SETINAR(2,1)) processes under a weaker condition that the second moment is finite, and studies the quasi-likelihood inference for the new model. The ergodicity of the new processes is discussed. Quasi-likelihood estimators for the model parameters and the asymptotic properties are obtained. Confidence regions of the parameters based on the quasi-likelihood method are given. A simulation study is conducted for the evaluation of the proposed approach and an application to a real data example is provided.     

Asymptotic properties of autoregressive integrated moving average processes

In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of so-called autoregressive integrated moving average processes. These processes constitute a large class of stochastic difference equations which includes among many other well-known processes the simple one-dimensional random walk. They were dubbed by G.E.P. Box and G.M. Jenkins who found them to provide useful models for studying and controlling the behavior of certain economic variables and various chemical processes. We show that autoregressive integrated moving average processes are asymptotically normally distributed, and that the sample paths of such processes satisfy a law of the iterated logarithm. We also establish a law which determines the time spent by a sample path on one or the other side of the “trend line” of the process.