Double-thresholded estimator of extreme value index

The purpose of this Note is to propose an estimator of the extreme value index constructed by using only the number of points exceeding random thresholds. We prove the weak consistency and the asymptotic normality of this estimator. We deduce from this last result that the rate of convergence of our estimator is in a power of the sample size. To our knowledge, this rate of convergence is not reached by any other estimate of the extreme value index. Through a simulation, we compare our estimator to the moment estimator (Dekkers et al., Ann. Statist. 17 (1989) 1833–1855). To cite this article: L. Gardes, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 337 (2003).     

A two-step estimator of the extreme value index

In this paper, we build a two-step estimator , which satisfies , where is the well-known maximum likelihood estimator of the extreme value index. Since the two-step estimator can be calculated easily as a function of the observations, it is much simpler to use in practice. By properly choosing the first step estimator, such as the Pickands estimator, we can even get a shift and scale invariant estimator with the above property. The author thanks Laurens de Haan for motivating this work and giving helpful comments. The author also thanks two anonymous referees for their useful comments.     

Estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles under random censoring

In this paper, we consider the estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles in the presence of random right censoring. The generalization of the peaks over threshold method is discussed and an adaptation of the moment estimator is proposed. The corresponding extreme quantile estimators are also introduced. We make a start with the analysis of the asymptotic properties of the moment estimator and the corresponding extreme quantile estimator. The finite sample behaviour is illustrated with a small simulation study and through practical examples from survival data analysis.      

Multivariate moment based extreme value index estimators

Modeling extreme events is of paramount importance in various areas of science—biostatistics, climatology, finance, geology, and telecommunications, to name a few. Most of these application areas involve multivariate data. Estimation of the extreme value index plays a crucial role in modeling rare events. There is an affine invariant multivariate generalization of the well known Hill estimator—the separating Hill estimator. However, the Hill estimator is only suitable for heavy tailed distributions. As in the case of the separating multivariate Hill estimator, we consider estimation of the extreme value index under the assumptions of multivariate ellipticity and independent identically distributed observations. We provide affine invariant multivariate generalizations of the moment estimator and the mixed moment estimator. These estimators are suitable for both light and heavy tailed distributions. Asymptotic properties of the new extreme value index estimators are derived under multivariate elliptical distribution with known location and scatter. The effect of replacing true location and scatter by estimates is examined in a thorough simulation study. We also consider two data examples: one financial application and one meteorological application.     

Heavy-traffic extreme value limits for Erlang delay models

We consider the maximum queue length and the maximum number of idle servers in the classical Erlang delay model and the generalization allowing customer abandonment—the M/M/n+M queue. We use strong approximations to show, under regularity conditions, that properly scaled versions of the maximum queue length and maximum number of idle servers over subintervals [0,t] in the delay models converge jointly to independent random variables with the Gumbel extreme value distribution in the quality-and-efficiency-driven (QED) and ED many-server heavy-traffic limiting regimes as n and t increase to infinity together appropriately; we require that t _n →∞ and t _n =o(n ^1/2?ε ) as n→∞ for some ε>0.     

Conditional extreme value models: fallacies and pitfalls

Conditional extreme value models have been introduced by Heffernan and Resnick (Ann. Appl. Probab., 17, 537–571, 2007) to describe the asymptotic behavior of a random vector as one specific component becomes extreme. Obviously, this class of models is related to classical multivariate extreme value theory which describes the behavior of a random vector as its norm (and therefore at least one of its components) becomes extreme. However, it turns out that this relationship is rather subtle and sometimes contrary to intuition. We clarify the differences between the two approaches with the help of several illuminative (counter)examples. Furthermore, we discuss marginal standardization, which is a useful tool in classical multivariate extreme value theory but, as we point out, much less straightforward and sometimes even obscuring in conditional extreme value models. Finally, we indicate how, in some situations, a more comprehensive characterization of the asymptotic behavior can be obtained if the conditions of conditional extreme value models are relaxed so that the limit is no longer unique.     

Vector generalized linear and additive extreme value models

Over recent years parametric and nonparametric regression has slowly been adopted into extreme value data analysis. Its introduction has been characterized by piecemeal additions and embellishments, which has had a negative effect on software development and usage. The purpose of this article is to convey the classes of vector generalized linear and additive models (VGLMs and VGAMs) as offering significant advantages for extreme value data analysis, providing flexible smoothing within a unifying framework. In particular, VGLMs and VGAMs allow all parameters of extreme value distributions to be modelled as linear or smooth functions of covariates. We implement new auxiliary methodology by incorporating a quasi-Newton update for the working weight matrices within an iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) algorithm. A software implementation by the first author, called the vgam package for , is used to illustrate the potential of VGLMs and VGAMs.     

A choice probability characterization of generalized extreme value models

A set of necessary and sufficient conditions is established for the representability of choice probabilities by additive random utility models with generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions of utilities. These conditions yield an operational testing procedure for GEV-representability which does not require explicit construction of the underlying distribution of utilities. In addition, this characterization of GEV models reveals a number of their underlying behavioral features.     

The extent of the maximum likelihood estimator for the extreme value index

In extreme value analysis, staring from Smith (1987) [1], the maximum likelihood procedure is applied in estimating the shape parameter of tails—the extreme value index γ. For its theoretical properties, Zhou (2009) [12] proved that the maximum likelihood estimator eventually exists and is consistent for γ>−1 under the first order condition. The combination of Zhou (2009) [12] and Drees et al (2004) [11] provides the asymptotic normality under the second order condition for γ>−1/2. This paper proves the asymptotic normality for −1<γ≤−1/2 and the non-consistency for γ<−1. These results close the discussion on the theoretical properties of the maximum likelihood estimator.     

Estimating bank default with generalised extreme value regression models

The paper proposes a novel model for the prediction of bank failures, on the basis of both macroeconomic and bank-specific microeconomic factors. As bank failures are rare, in the paper we apply a regression method for binary data based on extreme value theory, which turns out to be more effective than classical logistic regression models, as it better leverages the information in the tail of the default distribution. The application of this model to the occurrence of bank defaults in a highly bank dependent economy (Italy) shows that, while microeconomic factors as well as regulatory capital are significant to explain proper failures, macroeconomic factors are relevant only when failures are defined not only in terms of actual defaults but also in terms of mergers and acquisitions. In terms of predictive accuracy, the model based on extreme value theory outperforms classical logistic regression models.     

A method to calculate the distribution function when the characteristic function is known

A formula for numerical inversion of characteristic functions based on the Poisson formula is presented, and a numerical example is also given.     

Existence and consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for the extreme value index

The paper is about the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator for the extreme value index. Under the second order condition, Drees et al. [H. Drees, A. Ferreira, L. de Haan, On maximum likelihood estimation of the extreme value index, Ann. Appl. Probab. 14 (2004) 1179-1201] proved asymptotic normality for any solution of the likelihood equations (with shape parameter γ>−1/2) that is not too far off the real value. But they did not prove that there is a solution of the equations satisfying the restrictions.In this paper, the existence is proved, even for γ>−1. The proof just uses the domain of attraction condition (first order condition), not the second order condition. It is also proved that the estimator is consistent. When the second order condition is valid, following the current proof, the existence of a solution satisfying the restrictions in the above-cited reference is a direct consequence.     

Bias correction in extreme value statistics with index around zero

Applying extreme value statistics in meteorology and environmental science requires accurate estimators on extreme value indices that can be around zero. Without having prior knowledge on the sign of the extreme value indices, the probability weighted moment (PWM) estimator is a favorable candidate. As most other estimators on the extreme value index, the PWM estimator bears an asymptotic bias. In this paper, we develop a bias correction procedure for the PWM estimator. Moreover, we provide bias-corrected PWM estimators for high quantiles and, when the extreme value index is negative, the endpoint of a distribution. The choice of k, the number of high order statistics used for estimation, is crucial in applications. The asymptotically unbiased PWM estimators allows the choice of higher level k, which results in a lower asymptotic variance. Moreover, since the bias-corrected PWM estimators can be applied for a wider range of k compared to the original PWM estimator, one gets more flexibility in choosing k for finite sample applications. All advantages become apparent in simulations and an environmental application on estimating “once per 10,000 years” still water level at Hoek van Holland, The Netherlands.     

On the Maximum Likelihood estimation of a linear structural relationship when the intercept is known

This paper considers the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation of the five parameters of a linear structural relationship y = α + βx when α is known. The parameters are β, the two variances of observation errors on x and y, the mean and variance of x. When the ML estimates of the parameters cannot be obtained by solving a simple simultaneous system of five equations, they are found by maximizing the likelihood function directly. Some asymptotic properties of the estimates are also obtained.     

Estimation of the extreme value and the extreme points

Summary Letf be a continuous function defined on some domainA andX ₁,X ₂, ... be iid random variables. We estimate the extreme value off onA by studying the limiting distribution of min {f(X ₁), ...,f(X _n )} or max {f(X ₁), ...,f(X _n )} properly normalized. Sufficient conditions for the existence of the limiting distribution as well as a characterization of the limiting distribution relative to the extreme points off will be provided. A discussion of the multidimensional case is also carried out. Partially supported by CNPq-No. 301508/84.     

Reduced‐bias kernel estimators of a positive extreme value index

In this paper, we deal with the semi‐parametric estimation of the extreme value index, an important parameter in extreme value analysis. It is well known that many classic estimators, such as the Hill estimator, reveal a strong bias. This problem motivated the study of two classes of kernel estimators. Those classes generalize the classical Hill estimator and have a tuning parameter that enables us to modify the asymptotic mean squared error and eventually to improve their efficiency. Since the improvement in efficiency is not very expressive, we also study new reduced bias estimators based on the two classes of kernel statistics. Under suitable conditions, we prove their asymptotic normality. Moreover, an asymptotic comparison, at optimal levels, shows that the new classes of reduced bias estimators are more efficient than other reduced bias estimator from the literature. An illustration of the finite sample behaviour of the kernel reduced‐bias estimators is also provided through the analysis of a data set in the field of insurance.     

Comparison of location models of Weibull type samples and extreme value processes

Summary Four different location parameter models are compared within the sufficiency and deficiency concept. The starting is a location model of a Weibull type sample with shape parameter -1<a<1. Here our basic inequality concerns the approximate sufficiency of the k lower extremes. In addition, the lower extremes are approximately equal, in distribution, to where S _m is the sum of m i.i.d. standard exponential random variables and t is the location parameter. The final step leads us to the model of extreme value processes ...     

New estimators of the extreme value index under random right censoring,for heavy-tailed distributions

This paper presents new approaches for the estimation of the extreme value index in the framework of randomly censored samples, based on the ideas of Kaplan-Meier integration and the synthetic data approach of Leurgans (1987). These ideas are developed here in the heavy-tailed case, and lead to modifications of the Hill estimator, for which the consistency is proved under first order conditions. Simulations exhibit good performances of the two approaches, compared to the only existing adaptation of the Hill estimator in this context