Bandwidth choice for local polynomial estimation of smooth boundaries

Local polynomial methods hold considerable promise for boundary estimation, where they offer unmatched flexibility and adaptivity. Most rival techniques provide only a single order of approximation; local polynomial approaches allow any order desired. Their more conventional rivals, for example high-order kernel methods in the context of regression, do not have attractive versions in the case of boundary estimation. However, the adoption of local polynomial methods for boundary estimation is inhibited by lack of knowledge about their properties, in particular about the manner in which they are influenced by bandwidth; and by the absence of techniques for empirical bandwidth choice. In the present paper we detail the way in which bandwidth selection determines mean squared error of local polynomial boundary estimators, showing that it is substantially more complex than in regression settings. For example, asymptotic formulae for bias and variance contributions to mean squared error no longer decompose into monotone functions of bandwidth. Nevertheless, once these properties are understood, relatively simple empirical bandwidth selection methods can be developed. We suggest a new approach to both local and global bandwidth choice, and describe its properties.     

Locally adaptive hazard smoothing

Summary We consider nonparametric estimation of hazard functions and their derivatives under random censorship, based on kernel smoothing of the Nelson (1972) estimator. One critically important ingredient for smoothing methods is the choice of an appropriate bandwidth. Since local variance of these estimates depends on the point where the hazard function is estimated and the bandwidth determines the trade-off between local variance and local bias, data-based local bandwidth choice is proposed. A general principle for obtaining asymptotically efficient data-based local bandwiths, is obtained by means of weak convergence of a local bandwidth process to a Gaussian limit process. Several specific asymptotically efficient bandwidth estimators are discussed. We propose in particular an, asymptotically efficient method derived from direct pilot estimators of the hazard function and of the local mean squared error. This bandwidth choice method has practical advantages and is also of interest in the uncensored case as well as for density estimation.Research supported by UC Davis Faculty Research Grant and by Air Force grant AFOSR-89-0386Research supported by Air Force grant AFOSR-89-0386     

Local polynomial maximum likelihood estimation for Pareto-type distributions

We discuss the estimation of the tail index of a heavy-tailed distribution when covariate information is available. The approach followed here is based on the technique of local polynomial maximum likelihood estimation. The generalized Pareto distribution is fitted locally to exceedances over a high specified threshold. The method provides nonparametric estimates of the parameter functions and their derivatives up to the degree of the chosen polynomial. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators will be proven under suitable regularity conditions. This approach is motivated by the fact that in some applications the threshold should be allowed to change with the covariates due to significant effects on scale and location of the conditional distributions. Using the asymptotic results we are able to derive an expression for the asymptotic mean squared error, which can be used to guide the selection of the bandwidth and the threshold. The applicability of the method will be demonstrated with a few practical examples.     

Bayesian estimation of bandwidth in semiparametric kernel estimation of unknown probability mass and regression functions of count data

This work takes advantage of semiparametric modelling which improves significantly in many situations the estimation accuracy of the purely nonparametric approach. Herein for semiparametric estimations of probability mass function (pmf) of count data, and an unknown count regression function (crf), the kernel used is a binomial one and the bandiwdth selection is investigated by developing Bayesian approaches. About the latter, Bayes local and global bandwidth approaches are used to establish data-driven selection procedures in semiparametric framework. From conjugate beta prior distributions of the smoothing parameter and under the squared errors loss function, Bayes estimate for pmf is obtained in closed form. This is not available for the crf which is computed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Simulation studies demonstrate that both proposed methods perform better than the classical cross-validation procedures, in particular the smoothing quality and execution times are optimized. All applications are made on real data sets.     

Targeted smoothing parameter selection for estimating average causal effects

The non-parametric estimation of average causal effects in observational studies often relies on controlling for confounding covariates through smoothing regression methods such as kernel, splines or local polynomial regression. Such regression methods are tuned via smoothing parameters which regulates the amount of degrees of freedom used in the fit. In this paper we propose data-driven methods for selecting smoothing parameters when the targeted parameter is an average causal effect. For this purpose, we propose to estimate the exact expression of the mean squared error of the estimators. Asymptotic approximations indicate that the smoothing parameters minimizing this mean squared error converges to zero faster than the optimal smoothing parameter for the estimation of the regression functions. In a simulation study we show that the proposed data-driven methods for selecting the smoothing parameters yield lower empirical mean squared error than other methods available such as, e.g., cross-validation.     

Hazard function estimation with cause-of-death data missing at random

Hazard function estimation is an important part of survival analysis. Interest often centers on estimating the hazard function associated with a particular cause of death. We propose three nonparametric kernel estimators for the hazard function, all of which are appropriate when death times are subject to random censorship and censoring indicators can be missing at random. Specifically, we present a regression surrogate estimator, an imputation estimator, and an inverse probability weighted estimator. All three estimators are uniformly strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. We derive asymptotic representations of the mean squared error and the mean integrated squared error for these estimators and we discuss a data-driven bandwidth selection method. A simulation study, conducted to assess finite sample behavior, demonstrates that the proposed hazard estimators perform relatively well. We illustrate our methods with an analysis of some vascular disease data.     

Data-Adaptive Estimation of Time-Varying Spectral Densities

This article introduces a data-adaptive nonparametric approach for the estimation of time-varying spectral densities from nonstationary time series. Time-varying spectral densities are commonly estimated by local kernel smoothing. The performance of these nonparametric estimators, however, depends crucially on the smoothing bandwidths that need to be specified in both time and frequency direction. As an alternative and extension to traditional bandwidth selection methods, we propose an iterative algorithm for constructing localized smoothing kernels data-adaptively. The main idea, inspired by the concept of propagation-separation, is to determine for a point in the time-frequency plane the largest local vicinity over which smoothing is justified by the data. By shaping the smoothing kernels nonparametrically, our method not only avoids the problem of bandwidth selection in the strict sense but also becomes more flexible. It not only adapts to changing curvature in smoothly varying spectra but also adjusts for structural breaks in the time-varying spectrum. Supplementary materials, including the R package tvspecAdapt containing an implementation of the routine, are available online.     

Error Process Indexed by Bandwidth Matrices in Multivariate Local Linear Smoothing

We focus on nonparametric multivariate regression function estimation by locally weighted least squares. The asymptotic behavior for a sequence of error processes indexed by bandwidth matrices is derived. We discuss feasible data-driven consistent estimators minimizing asymptotic mean squared error or efficient estimators reducing asymptotic bias at points where opposite sign curvatures of the regression function are present in different directions.     

基于局部多项式展开的多元非参数模型贝叶斯带宽选择

在多元非参数模型中带宽和阶的选择对局部多项式估计量的表现十分重要。本文基于交叉验证准则提出一个自适应贝叶斯带宽选择方法。在给定的误差密度函数下,该方法可推导出对应的似然函数,并构造带宽参数的后验密度函数。随后,通过带宽的后验期望可同时获得阶和带宽的估计。数值模拟的结果表明,该方法不仅比大拇指准则方法精确,且比交叉验证方法耗时更少。与此同时,与Nadaraya-Watson估计相比,所提带宽选择方法对多元非参数模型的适应性要更好。最后,本文通过一组实际数据说明有限样本下所提贝叶斯带宽选择的表现很好。     

Using the bootstrap to estimate mean squared error and select smoothing parameter in nonparametric problems

We describe a bootstrap method for estimating mean squared error and smoothing parameter in nonparametric problems. The method involves using a resample of smaller size than the original sample. There are many applications, which are illustrated using the special cases of nonparametric density estimation, nonparametric regression, and tail parameter estimation.     

Local linear regression for functional predictor and scalar response

The aim of this work is to introduce a new nonparametric regression technique in the context of functional covariate and scalar response. We propose a local linear regression estimator and study its asymptotic behaviour. Its finite-sample performance is compared with a Nadayara-Watson type kernel regression estimator and with the linear regression estimator via a Monte Carlo study and the analysis of two real data sets. In all the scenarios considered, the local linear regression estimator performs better than the kernel one, in the sense that the mean squared prediction error is lower.     

Data-driven local bandwidth selection for additive models with missing data

This paper deals in the nonparametric estimation of additive models in the presence of missing data in the response variable. Specifically in the case of additive models estimated by the Backfitting algorithm with local polynomial smoothers [1]. Three estimators are presented, one based on the available data and two based on a complete sample from imputation techniques. We also develop a data-driven local bandwidth selector based on a Wild Bootstrap approximation of the mean squared error of the estimators. The performance of the estimators and the local bootstrap bandwidth selection method are explored through simulation experiments.     

Bandwidth choice for differentiation

We propose a class of procedures for choosing the bandwidth, or smoothing parameter, for linear nonparametric estimates of the rth derivative of a smooth function observed with error on a discrete set of points. These procedures are based on minimizing a nearly unbiased estimate of the integrated mean square error. Theoretical justification is provided in the special case of a tapered Fourier series estimate.     

Heteroscedasticity checks for regression models

For checking on heteroscedasticity in regression models, a unified approach is proposed to constructing test statistics in parametric and nonparametric regression models. For nonparametric regression, the test is not affected sensitively by the choice of smoothing parameters which are involved in estimation of the nonparametric regression function. The limiting null distribution of the test statistic remains the same in a wide range of the smoothing parameters. When the covariate is one-dimensional, the tests are, under some conditions, asymptotically distribution-free. In the high-dimensional cases, the validity of bootstrap approximations is investigated. It is shown that a variant of the wild bootstrap is consistent while the classical bootstrap is not in the general case, but is applicable if some extra assumption on conditional variance of the squared error is imposed. A simulation study is performed to provide evidence of how the tests work and compare with tests that have appeared in the literature. The approach may readily be extended to handle partial linear, and linear autoregressive models.     

Optimal kernel estimation of spot volatility of stochastic differential equations

A unified framework to optimally select the bandwidth and kernel function of spot volatility kernel estimators is put forward. The proposed models include not only classical Brownian motion driven dynamics but also volatility processes that are driven by long-memory fractional Brownian motions or other Gaussian processes. We characterize the leading order terms of the mean squared error, which in turn enables us to determine an explicit formula for the leading term of the optimal bandwidth. Central limit theorems for the estimation error are also obtained. A feasible plug-in type bandwidth selection procedure is then proposed, for which, as a sub-problem, a new estimator of the volatility of volatility is developed. The optimal selection of the kernel function is also investigated. For Brownian Motion type volatilities, the optimal kernel turns out to be an exponential function, while, for fractional Brownian motion type volatilities, easily implementable numerical results to compute the optimal kernels are devised. Simulation studies further confirm the good performance of the proposed methods.     

Un choix de fenêtre optimal en estimation polynomiale locale de la fonction de répartition conditionnelle

We propose an optimal choice for the bandwidth parameter used in the local polynomial estimation of the conditional distribution function. This choice is approximated by the bandwidth which minimizes the asymptotic weighted mean integrated squared error (MISE). To cite this article: S. Ferrigno, G.R. Ducharme, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 346 (2008).     

Multivariate Hazard Rates under Random Censorship

The data consists of multivariate failure times under right random censorship. By the kernel smoothing technique, convolutions of cumulative multivariate hazard functions suggest estimators of the so-called multivariate hazard functions. We establish strong i.i.d. representations and uniform bounds of the remainder terms on some compact sets of the underlying space. Thus asymptotic normality and uniform consistency on such sets are obtained. The asymptotic mean squared error gives an optimal bandwidth by the plug-in method. Simulations assess the performance of our estimators.     

Partial functional linear quantile regression

This paper studies estimation in partial functional linear quantile regression in which the dependent variable is related to both a vector of finite length and a function-valued random variable as predictor variables. The slope function is estimated by the functional principal component basis. The asymptotic distribution of the estimator of the vector of slope parameters is derived and the global convergence rate of the quantile estimator of unknown slope function is established under suitable norm. It is showed that this rate is optimal in a minimax sense under some smoothness assumptions on the covariance kernel of the covariate and the slope function. The convergence rate of the mean squared prediction error for the proposed estimators is also be established. Finite sample properties of our procedures are studied through Monte Carlo simulations. A real data example about Berkeley growth data is used to illustrate our proposed methodology.     

Plug-in method for nonparametric regression

The problem of bandwidth selection for non-parametric kernel regression is considered. We will follow the Nadaraya–Watson and local linear estimator especially. The circular design is assumed in this work to avoid the difficulties caused by boundary effects. Most of bandwidth selectors are based on the residual sum of squares (RSS). It is often observed in simulation studies that these selectors are biased toward undersmoothing. This leads to consideration of a procedure which stabilizes the RSS by modifying the periodogram of the observations. As a result of this procedure, we obtain an estimation of unknown parameters of average mean square error function (AMSE). This process is known as a plug-in method. Simulation studies suggest that the plug-in method could have preferable properties to the classical one. Supported by the MSMT: LC 06024.     

BANDWIDTH SELECTION IN NONPARAMETRIC SPECTRAL DENSITY ESTIMATION OF THE STATIONARY GAUSSIAN PROCESS

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