一种新的武器总体综合设计方法

对武器装备的作战效能、寿命周期费用、风险和研制周期的模型进行了研究,提出了综合运用这四维指标作为目标函数的武器总体综合设计的思路和数学模型,可以全面而系统地认识武器装备的发展问题,避免设计中由于只注重提高性能而引起的弊端.     

基于模糊综合评判的预警机作战效能评估

根据预警机的功能结构关系,建立了预警机的效能评估指标体系;针对预警机作战效能评估多指标和不确定性的特点,结合模糊综合评判法建立了预警机作战效能评估的多层模糊综合评判模型;通过实例验证了模型的正确性和有效性.     

复杂作战环境的马尔科夫转移表征及武器装备作战效能计算

未来作战将面对极其复杂的作战环境.研究复杂作战环境对作战行为与效果的影响,寻求有效对策,对于取得未来作战的胜利,具有重要的理论和现实意义.论文研究复杂作战环境的马尔科夫转移表征及武器装备作战效能的计算.通过把复杂作战环境随连续时间的变化规律进行"降级"处理,认为在一段随机时间长度内作战环境保持不变,之后随机转移到另一作...     

应用马尔科夫状态转移链的作战航空综合体效能评估

文章阐述了作战航空综合体的相关概念及组成,应用马尔科夫状态转移链建立了作战航空综合体完成典型作战任务时的数学模型,确定了作战效能的评估指标,最后通过具体算例检验了模型的正确性和可行性.     

基于FNP-ADC模型的弹药调度系统保障效能评估

正确评估诸如弹药调度系统此类复杂武器装备的系统效能,可为作战指挥决策提供重要支撑依据,从装备系统结构组成及复杂性出发,合理地表示工作状态及其转移过程,在流水网络计划(flow network planning,FNP)技术框架下应用ADC模型开展效能评估.以FNP时间参数为基础,确定了组成分系统故障一般概率分布下的可用性、可信性和保障能力表示方法,分别表示为影响因素的函数关系,最终建立了FNP-ADC模型.综合进行保障效能评估,可进一步分析因素对效能的影响程度,并给出了案例分析.     

基于遗传算法的装备维修费用优化分配理论及优化方法研究

在美国工业界武器系统咨询委员会提出的郊能公式基础上 ,建立了武器装备效能与维修费用函数关系 ,为武器装备维修费用的优化分配提供了一个标准 .针对多种武器装备维修费用优化 ,建立了一个维修费用分配模型 ,用遗传算法进行了优化 ,并对优化过程进行了详细阐述 .在此基础上开发了装备维修经费优化与管理辅助决策支持系统 .     

基于状态空间的武器装备作战需求模型

以武器装备作战需求为分析对象,构建了数量与战技性能的状态空间和一般作战流程,描述了基于跳跃强度和状态概率的作战需求表达式,解决了作战任务与武器装备之间的映射规则问题。     

基于混沌遗传-支持向量机的空地攻击型无人机作战效能评估

空地攻击型无人机的作战效能评估在未来战场“去功能化”打击中具有重要的意义.在对空地攻击型无人机作战效能实时评估时,影响作战效能的评价指标体系因素相对复杂,建立作战效能评估模型存在非线性特点,因此本文引入了具有较强鲁棒性的支持向量回归机算法进行作战效能评估,在构建空地攻击型无人机评估体系基础上,利用混沌系统-遗传算法对支持向量机惩罚因子等参数进行优化,保证战场实时环境下效能评估的有效性和效率.通过实例分析,混沌遗传-支持向量机模型能够准确地对空地攻击型无人机进行有效的作战效能评估,具有良好的鲁棒性.     

基于概率论的防空武器系统对集群敌机的服务效能研究

论述了防空武器系统服务效能的概念,提出了服务效能的评估指标,做出了符合防空作战一般规律的假设,据此,通过概率论的方法分析了对抗系统的各种状态,论证了系统统计平衡状态的存在,进而建立了数学解析模型,最后得出了对防空武器系统服务效能的定量评估指标.     

武器装备动态配置中的风险决策分析

从武器装备配置决策的风险性出发 ,探讨了在武器装备配置中费用—效益的关系 ,建立了武器装备静态与动态配置过程最佳方案确定的数学模型 .通过方案的评估择优使得我们能够科学的优化资金流向 ,为决策者在实施武器装备配置决策时提供较有力的科学依据 .     

Cost-efficiency analysis of weapon system portfolios

Decisions about the acquisition and maintenance of military equipment serve to build long-term capabilities in preparation of military conflicts. Typically, these decisions involve large investments which need to be supported by adequate cost-efficiency analyses. Yet the cost-efficiency analysis of weapon systems involves several challenges: for example, it is necessary to account for the possible interactions among different weapon systems; the relevance of several impact criteria; and the variety of combat situations in which these systems may be used. In this paper, we develop a portfolio methodology where these challenges are addressed by evaluating the cost-efficiencies of entire portfolios consisting of individual weapon systems. Our methodology accounts for possible interactions among systems by synthesizing impact assessment results that are either generated by combat simulation models or elicited from experts. It also admits incomplete preference information about the relative importance of different impact criteria. This methodology guides decision making by identifying which combinations of weapon systems are efficient with respect to multiple evaluation criteria in different combat situations at different cost levels. It can also be extended to settings where multiple combat situations are addressed simultaneously. The methodology is generic and can therefore be applied also in civilian settings when portfolios of activities (such as mitigation of harmful environmental emissions) may exhibit interactions.     

基于BP神经网络误差函数优化算法的武器装备承制商信用评价模型研究

信用评价是选择武器装备承制商的重要手段.以国标为基础,结合承制商具体情况确定了信用评价指标体系.分析了传统信用评价方法的不足,对经典BP神经网络的误差函数进行优化,优化后的网络模型收敛速度更快,预测精度更高.构建BP神经网络武器装备承制商信用评价模型,仿真实验表明武器装备承制商信用评价可以选用BP神经网络模型.     

多现象静态指数在武器装备承制商信用管理中的应用

武器装备承制商建立信用管理体制不仅能够获取军方信任,也可以达到对自身信用状态预警的目的.在讨论多现象静态总指数和承制商信用评估指数分类的基础上,运用变异系数加权的静态总指数方法计算出武器装备承制商信用评估指数,通过案例分析验证了信用指数评估承制商信用的实际意义,并结合案例做出了具体的客观评价.     

基于灰色系统理论的空军装备维修保障费用预测模型

随着空军武器装备的迅猛发展,维修保障在装备战斗力形成和发挥中的地位与作用越来越重要.运用灰色系统理论,科学确定装备维修保障需求,使维修保障系统建设与武器装备发展需求相协调,维修保障能力与装备作战需要相适应,不断满足现代高技术条件下军事斗争准备对维修保障的需求.     

基于云推理模型的武器装备研制风险评估研究

武器装备研制过程充满了不确定性和风险,因此对武器装备研制风险进行研究对于实现武器装备研制目标具有重要的意义.界定了武器装备研制风险相关概念,介绍了云推理理论,构建了武器装备研制风险的云推理评估模型,实现了定性变量与定量变量相互映射,最后,通过实例对模型进行了验证.     

Supporting acquisition decisions through effective experimental design

Weapon acquisition is a very expensive process, especially in today's cost reduction environment. Techniques must be used to conduct operational testing using a minimum of resources while not sacrificing the adequacy and credibility of the test. A coordinated use of a combat simulation and a design of experiment procedure, the Taguchi method, shows promise as an acquisition strategyThis research focused on the Javelin medium antitank system which just completed operational testing in the Fall of 1993 and was intended to give the Javelin Project Manager's office information regarding the probable outcome of critical design characteristics prior to the test. Using the Taguchi method, many different design parameters were analyzed at several different levels of performance The method reduced the number of trials required to obtain a desired level of statistical significance while still obtaining the necessary data for each parameter. Once the required number of trials were identified, the Janus combat model simulated the operational test trials.Results suggest what weapon parameters are critical to the specific measures of effectiveness of survivability, lethality, and engagement range. In a broader view, this tandem use of an experimental design technique and a combat simulation can provide acquisition managers with insights on critical system parameters prior to actual testing.     

Semi-dynamic modelling of heterogeneous land combat

We propose a semi-dynamic approach to tactical level land combat modelling from the attacker's viewpoint. Our approach decomposes a battle between heterogeneous forces into stages and mini battles. For each mini battle in a stage, we use three models: a mathematical programming model for optimizing force allocations, a Lanchester simulation model for predicting whether or not the stage targets are reached under the allocations, and a model for weapon effectiveness update from one stage to the next. These models interact with each other within the framework of a decision support system to help the user with allocation decisions as well as prediction of force requirements to win the battle.     

地空导弹武器系统效能评估指标体系研究

地空导弹武器系统效能评估是地空导弹武器系统研制和使用过程中的关键环节.效能评估指标体系的建立是保证效能评估科学、合理的重要基础.针对现代地空导弹武器系统的使用特点,在W SE IAC模型的框架下,构建了地空导弹武器系统效能评估指标体系,并给出了指标的分解及确定方法.研究结果可为地空导弹武器系统效能评估提供支持.     

An evolutionary approach for the target allocation problem

We propose an evolutionary approach for target allocation in tactical level land combat. The purpose is to assign friendly military units to enemy units such that the total weapon effectiveness used is minimised while the attrition goals set for the enemy units are satisfied. A repair algorithm is developed to ensure feasibility with respect to the attrition goal constraints. A tightness measure is devised to determine the population size of the genetic algorithm as a function of constraint tightness. Also, a local improvement algorithm is used to further improve the solution quality. Experimental results indicate that the genetic algorithm can find solutions with acceptable quality in reasonable computation time. Although the approach is developed for the target allocation problem, it can be adapted for other assignment problems.     

Upper Bounds of the Pursuer Control Based on a Linear-Quadratic Differential Game

Differential game formulations provide an adequate basis for a guidance law synthesis against highly maneuvering targets. This paper deals with a guidance law based on a linear-quadratic differential game formulation. This guidance law has many attractive properties: it is continuous, linear with respect to the state variables, and its gain coefficients can be precalculated offline. Nevertheless, due to the lack of hard control constraints in the formulation, the magnitude of the control can exceed the admissible level imposed by the nature of the problem. In this paper, the upper bound of the interceptor control is obtained depending on the system parameters and the penalty coefficients of the game performance index. It is shown that the interceptor can guarantee an arbitrarily small miss distance without exceeding the control constraints if it has sufficient maneuverability and if the penalty coefficients are chosen properly. By manipulating the penalty coefficients, it is possible to reduce significantly the maneuverability requirements compared to the case of zero interceptor penalty coefficient.