Bartlett's formulae—Closed forms and recurrent equations

We show that the entries of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the sample autocovariances and autocorrelations of a stationary process can be expressed in terms of the square of its spectral density. This leads to closed form expressions and fast computational algorithms.This research has been partly supported by contract No. MM 440/94 with the Bulgarian Ministry of Science and Education and by the Division of Quality Technology and Statistics, Luleå University, Sweden.     

Comparison of ‘Tail Method’ Exact Confidence Limits for the Difference of Binomial Probabilities

Suppose that Y ₁ and Y ₂ are independent and have Binomial(n ₁,p ₁) and Binomial (n ₂,p ₂) distributions respectively. Also suppose that θ=p ₁−p ₂ is the parameter of interest. We consider the problem of finding an exact confidence limit (either upper or lower) for θ. The solution to this problem is very important for statistical practice in the health and life sciences. The ‘tail method’ provides a solution to this problem. This method finds the exact confidence limit by exact inversion of a hypothesis test based on a specified test statistic. Buehler (J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 52, 482–493, 1957) described, for the first time, a finite-sample optimality property of this confidence limit. Consequently, this confidence limit is sometimes called a Buehler confidence limit. An early tail method confidence limit for θ was described by Santner and Snell (J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 75, 386–394, 1980) who used the maximum likelihood estimator of θ as the test statistic. This confidence limit is known to be very inefficient (see e.g. Cytel Software, StatXact, version 6, vol. 2, 2004). The efficiency of the confidence limit resulting from the tail method depends greatly on the test statistic on which it is based. We use the results of Kabaila (Stat. Probab. Lett. 52, 145–154, 2001) and Kabaila and Lloyd (Aust. New Zealand J. Stat. 46, 463–469, 2004, J. Stat. Plan. Inference 136, 3145–3155, 2006) to provide a detailed explanation for the dependence of this efficiency on the test statistic. We consider test statistics that are estimators, Z-statistics and approximate upper confidence limits. This explanation is used to find the situations in which the tail method exact confidence limits based on test statistics that are estimators or Z-statistics are least efficient.     

Goodness of fit of an assigned set of scores for the analysis of association in a contingency table

The problem of association between two attributes in ap×q contingency table can be looked upon as the problem of relationship between two vector variablesx andy. If there is only one true non-zero canonical correlation betweenx andy, the association between the two attributes is of rank 1 and in this case, one set of scores is adequate to describe the association completely; these scores are nothing but the coefficients in the canonical variates corresponding to the true non-zero canonical correlation. Given a set of hypothetical scoresα ₁,α₁,⋯,α_p for the rows, one is interested in testing their goodness of fit. Tests for this are suggested in this paper. For obtaining these tests, a preliminary result about direction and collinearity factors in discriminant analysis, whenS irrelevant variables are eliminated, is needed. This is derived in part one of this paper. This research was sponsored by the Office of Naval Research, Contract No. N00014-68-A-0515, Project No. NR042-260. Reproduction in whole or in part is permitted for any purpose of the United States Government.     

Null distribution of the sum of squared z-transforms in testing complete independence

Brien et al. (1984, Biometrika, 71, 545–554; 1988, Biometrika, 75, 469–476) have proposed, illustrated and discussed advantages of using Fisher's z-transforms for analyzing correlation structures of multinormal data. Chen and Mudholkar (1988, Austral. J. Statist., 31, 105–110) have studied the sum of squared z-transforms of sample correlations as a test statistic for complete independence. In this paper Brown's (1987, Ann. Probab., 15, 416–422) graph-theoretic characterization of the dependence structure of sample correlations is used to evaluate moments of the test statistic. These moments are then used to approximate its null distribution accurately over a broad range of parameters, including the case where the population dimension exceeds the sample size.     

On the Almost Sure Central Limit Theorem for a Class of Z d -Actions

As an extension of earlier papers on stationary sequences, a concept of weak dependence for strictly stationary random fields is introduced in terms of so-called homoclinic transformations. Under assumptions made within the framework of this concept a form of the almost sure central limit theorem (ASCLT) is established for random fields arising from a class of algebraic Z ^d -actions on compact abelian groups. As an auxillary result, the central limit theorem is proved via Ch. Stein's method. The next stage of the proof includes some estimates which are specific for ASCLT. Both steps are based on making use of homoclinic transformations.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">I</Emphasis>-projection onto isotonic cones and its applications to maximum likelihood estimation for log-linear models

A frequently occurring problem is to find a probability vector,p∈D, which minimizes theI-divergence between it and a given probability vector π. This is referred to as theI-projection of π ontoD. Darroch and Ratcliff (1972,Ann. Math. Statist.,43, 1470–1480) gave an algorithm whenD is defined by some linear equalities and in this paper, for simplicity of exposition, we propose an iterative procedure whenD is defined by some linear inequalities. We also discuss the relationship betweenI-projection and the maximum likelihood estimation for multinomial distribution. All of the results can be applied to isotonic cone.     

Orbits of euclidean frames under discrete linear groups

We obtain certain sufficient conditions for the orbit of a (euclidean)p-frame over a vector spaceV,p<dimV, under the action of a discrete subgroup of GL(V), to be dense in the corresponding orbit of a Lie subgroup of GL(V). Using the result we classify thep-frames whose orbits under SL (n,Z) are dense in the space ofp-frames and deduce, in turn, a classification of dense orbits of certain horospherical flows. A similar result is obtained for Sp (2n,Z) forp≦n.     

The Central Limit Theorem on SO0(p, q)/SO(p)×SO(q)

We obtain a central limit theorem for the space SO ₀(p, q)/SO(p)×SO(q). To achieve this, we derive a Taylor expansion of the spherical function on the group SO ₀(p, q).     

On sample path properties of semistable processes

This paper contains three main results: In the first result a correspondence principle between semistable measures on L_p, 1 ≤ p < ∞, and Banach space valued semistable processes is established. In the second result it is shown that the paths of a Banach space valued semistable process belong to L_p with probability zero or one, and necessary and sufficient conditions for the two alternatives to hold are given. In the third result necessary and sufficient conditions are given for almost sure path absolute continuity for certain Banach space valued semistable processes.     

Mixing normal approximations of vectors of sums and maximum sums

Summary The conditioned central limit theorem for the vector of maximum partial sums based on independent identically distributed random vectors is investigated and the rate of convergence is discussed. The conditioning is that of Rényi (1958,Acta Math. Acad. Sci. Hungar.,9, 215–228). Analogous results for the vector of partial sums are obtained. University of Petroleum and Minerals     

Characters of Quantum Groups of Type A n

A presentation for an arbitrary group extension is well known. A generalization of the work by Conway et al. (Group Tensor1972, 25, 405–418) on central extensions has been given by Baik et al. (J. Group Theor.). As an application of this we discuss necessary and sufficient conditions for the presentation of the central extension to be p-Cockcroft, where p is a prime or 0. Finally, we present some examples of this result.     

Statistically Efficient Thinning of a Markov Chain Sampler

It is common to subsample Markov chain output to reduce the storage burden. Geyer shows that discarding k ? 1 out of every k observations will not improve statistical efficiency, as quantified through variance in a given computational budget. That observation is often taken to mean that thinning Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) output cannot improve statistical efficiency. Here, we suppose that it costs one unit of time to advance a Markov chain and then θ > 0 units of time to compute a sampled quantity of interest. For a thinned process, that cost θ is incurred less often, so it can be advanced through more stages. Here, we provide examples to show that thinning will improve statistical efficiency if θ is large and the sample autocorrelations decay slowly enough. If the lag ? ? 1 autocorrelations of a scalar measurement satisfy ρ_? > ρ_{? + 1} > 0, then there is always a θ < ∞ at which thinning becomes more efficient for averages of that scalar. Many sample autocorrelation functions resemble first order AR(1) processes with ρ_? = ρ^|?| for some ? 1 < ρ < 1. For an AR(1) process, it is possible to compute the most efficient subsampling frequency k. The optimal k grows rapidly as ρ increases toward 1. The resulting efficiency gain depends primarily on θ, not ρ. Taking k = 1 (no thinning) is optimal when ρ ? 0. For ρ > 0, it is optimal if and only if θ ? (1 ? ρ)²/(2ρ). This efficiency gain never exceeds 1 + θ. This article also gives efficiency bounds for autocorrelations bounded between those of two AR(1) processes. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Reversible coagulation–fragmentation processes and random combinatorial structures: Asymptotics for the number of groups

The equilibrium distribution of a reversible coagulation‐fragmentation process (CFP) and the joint distribution of components of a random combinatorial structure (RCS) are given by the same probability measure on the set of partitions. We establish a central limit theorem for the number of groups (= components) in the case a(k) = qk^p?1, k ≥ 1, q, p > 0, where a(k), k ≥ 1, is the parameter function that induces the invariant measure. The result obtained is compared with the ones for logarithmic RCS's and for RCS's, corresponding to the case p < 0. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Random Struct. Alg. 2004     

Heavy Tails in Multi-Server Queue

In this paper, the asymptotic behaviour of the distribution tail of the stationary waiting time W in the GI/GI/2 FCFS queue is studied. Under subexponential-type assumptions on the service time distribution, bounds and sharp asymptotics are given for the probability P{W > x}. We also get asymptotics for the distribution tail of a stationary two-dimensional workload vector and of a stationary queue length. These asymptotics depend heavily on the traffic load. AMS subject classification: 60K25     

Heavy-traffic analysis for the GI/G/1 queue with heavy-tailed distributions

We consider a GI/G/1 queue in which the service time distribution and/or the interarrival time distribution has a heavy tail, i.e., a tail behaviour like t ^−ν with 1 < ν ⩽ 2 , so that the mean is finite but the variance is infinite. We prove a heavy-traffic limit theorem for the distribution of the stationary actual waiting time W. If the tail of the service time distribution is heavier than that of the interarrival time distribution, and the traffic load a → 1, then W, multiplied by an appropriate ‘coefficient of contraction’ that is a function of a, converges in distribution to the Kovalenko distribution. If the tail of the interarrival time distribution is heavier than that of the service time distribution, and the traffic load a → 1, then W, multiplied by another appropriate ‘coefficient of contraction’ that is a function of a, converges in distribution to the negative exponential distribution. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Asymptotic properties of the MLE for the autoregressive process coefficients under stationary Gaussian noise

In this paper we study the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of the vector parameter of an autoregressive process of order p with regular stationary Gaussian noise. We prove the large sample asymptotic properties of the MLE under very mild conditions. We do simulations for fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), autoregressive noise (AR(1)) and moving average noise (MA(1)).     

Estimation of conditional laws given an extreme component

Let (X,Y) be a bivariate random vector. The estimation of a probability of the form P(Y ≤ y |X > t) is challenging when t is large, and a fruitful approach consists in studying, if it exists, the limiting conditional distribution of the random vector (X,Y), suitably normalized, given that X is large. There already exists a wide literature on bivariate models for which this limiting distribution exists. In this paper, a statistical analysis of this problem is done. Estimators of the limiting distribution (which is assumed to exist) and the normalizing functions are provided, as well as an estimator of the conditional quantile function when the conditioning event is extreme. Consistency of the estimators is proved and a functional central limit theorem for the estimator of the limiting distribution is obtained. The small sample behavior of the estimator of the conditional quantile function is illustrated through simulations. Some real data are analysed.     

A Berry-Esseen theorem for the kernel quantile estimator with application to studying the deficiency of quantile estimators

A Berry-Esseen bound is established for the kernel quantile estimator under various conditions. The results improve an earlier result of Falk (1985,Ann. Statist.,13, 428–433) and rely on the local smoothness of the quantile function. This new Berry-Esseen bound is applied to studying the deficiency of the sample quantile estimator with respect to the kernel quantile estimator. A new result is obtained which is an extension of that in Falk (1985).     

Factorization and Stochastic Decomposition Properties in Bulk Queues with Generalized Vacations

This paper considers a class of stationary batch-arrival, bulk-service queues with generalized vacations. The system consists of a single server and a waiting room of infinite capacity. Arrivals of customers follow a batch Markovian arrival process. The server is unavailable for occasional intervals of time called vacations, and when it is available, customers are served in groups of fixed size B. For this class of queues, we show that the vector probability generating function of the stationary queue length distribution is factored into two terms, one of which is the vector probability generating function of the conditional queue length distribution given that the server is on vacation. The special case of batch Poisson arrivals is carefully examined, and a new stochastic decomposition formula is derived for the stationary queue length distribution.AMS subject classification: 60K25, 90B22, 60K37     

On the convergence of general regularization and smoothing schemes for mathematical programs with complementarity constraints

We extend the convergence analysis of a smoothing method [M. Fukushima and J.-S. Pang (2000). Convergence of a smoothing continuation method for mathematical programs with complementarity constraints. In: M. Théra and R. Tichatschke (Eds.), Ill-posed Variational Problems and Regularization Techniques, pp. 99–110. Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg.] to a general class of smoothing functions and show that a weak second-order necessary optimality condition holds at the limit point of a sequence of stationary points found by the smoothing method. We also show that convergence and stability results in [S. Scholtes (2001). Convergence properties of a regularization scheme for mathematical programs with complementarity constraints. SIAM J. Optim., 11, 918–936.] hold for a relaxation problem suggested by Scholtes [S. Scholtes (2003). Private communications.] using a class of smoothing functions. In addition, the relationship between two technical, yet critical, concepts in [M. Fukushima and J.-S. Pang (2000). Convergence of a smoothing continuation method for mathematical programs with complementarity constraints. In: M. Théra and R. Tichatschke (Eds.), Ill-posed Variational Problems and Regularization Techniques, pp. 99–110. Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg; S. Scholtes (2001). Convergence properties of a regularization scheme for mathematical programs with complementarity constraints. SIAM J. Optim., 11, 918–936.] for the convergence analysis of the smoothing and regularization methods is discussed and a counter-example is provided to show that the stability result in [S. Scholtes (2001). Convergence properties of a regularization scheme for mathematical programs with complementarity constraints. SIAM J. Optim., 11, 918–936.] cannot be extended to a weaker regularization.