Contagion dynamics on adaptive multiplex networks with awareness-dependent rewiring

Over the last few years, the interplay between contagion dynamics of social influences (e.g., human awareness, risk perception, and information dissemination) and biological infections has been extensively investigated within the framework of multiplex networks. The vast majority of existing multiplex network spreading models typically resort to heterogeneous mean-field approximation and microscopic Markov chain approaches. Such approaches usually manifest richer dynamical properties on multiplex networks than those on simplex networks; however, they fall short of a subtle analysis of the variations in connections between nodes of the network and fail to account for the adaptive behavioral changes among individuals in response to epidemic outbreaks. To transcend these limitations, in this paper we develop a highly integrated effective degree approach to modeling epidemic and awareness spreading processes on multiplex networks coupled with awareness-dependent adaptive rewiring. This approach keeps track of the number of nearest neighbors in each state of an individual; consequently, it allows for the integration of changes in local contacts into the multiplex network model. We derive a formula for the threshold condition of contagion outbreak. Also, we provide a lower bound for the threshold parameter to indicate the effect of adaptive rewiring. The threshold analysis is confirmed by extensive simulations. Our results show that awareness-dependent link rewiring plays an important role in enhancing the transmission threshold as well as lowering the epidemic prevalence. Moreover, it is revealed that intensified awareness diffusion in conjunction with enhanced link rewiring makes a greater contribution to disease prevention and control. In addition, the critical phenomenon is observed in the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the awareness diffusion rate, supporting the metacritical point previously reported in literature. This work may shed light on understanding of the interplay between epidemic dynamics and social contagion on adaptive networks.     

Modelling of discrete-time SIS models with awareness interactions on degree-uncorrelated networks

Many epidemic models ignored the impact of awareness on epidemics in a population, though it is not the case from the real viewpoints. In this paper, a discrete-time SIS model with awareness interactions on degree-uncorrelated networks is considered. We study three kinds of awareness, including local awareness and global awareness which are originated from the epidemic-dependent information, and individual awareness which is epidemic-independent and determined by the individual information. We demonstrate analytically that awareness of the epidemic-dependent information cannot change the epidemic threshold regardless of the global or local spreading information. In contrast, epidemic-independent awareness to individual information increases the epidemic threshold in finite scale-free networks, but cannot halt the absence of epidemic threshold in an infinite scale-free network. By numerical simulations, we find that local awareness has a stronger impact on epidemic prevalence than global awareness. Our findings explore the effects of various types of awareness on epidemic spreading and address their roles in the epidemic control.     

Threshold model of cascades in empirical temporal networks

Threshold models try to explain the consequences of social influence like the spread of fads and opinions. Along with models of epidemics, they constitute a major theoretical framework of social spreading processes. In threshold models on static networks, an individual changes her state if a certain fraction of her neighbors has done the same. When there are strong correlations in the temporal aspects of contact patterns, it is useful to represent the system as a temporal network. In such a system, not only contacts but also the time of the contacts are represented explicitly. In many cases, bursty temporal patterns slow down disease spreading. However, as we will see, this is not a universal truth for threshold models. In this work we propose an extension of Watts’s classic threshold model to temporal networks. We do this by assuming that an agent is influenced by contacts which lie a certain time into the past. I.e., the individuals are affected by contacts within a time window. In addition to thresholds in the fraction of contacts, we also investigate the number of contacts within the time window as a basis for influence. To elucidate the model’s behavior, we run the model on real and randomized empirical contact datasets.     

Theory of rumour spreading in complex social networks

We introduce a general stochastic model for the spread of rumours, and derive mean-field equations that describe the dynamics of the model on complex social networks (in particular, those mediated by the Internet). We use analytical and numerical solutions of these equations to examine the threshold behaviour and dynamics of the model on several models of such networks: random graphs, uncorrelated scale-free networks and scale-free networks with assortative degree correlations. We show that in both homogeneous networks and random graphs the model exhibits a critical threshold in the rumour spreading rate below which a rumour cannot propagate in the system. In the case of scale-free networks, on the other hand, this threshold becomes vanishingly small in the limit of infinite system size. We find that the initial rate at which a rumour spreads is much higher in scale-free networks than in random graphs, and that the rate at which the spreading proceeds on scale-free networks is further increased when assortative degree correlations are introduced. The impact of degree correlations on the final fraction of nodes that ever hears a rumour, however, depends on the interplay between network topology and the rumour spreading rate. Our results show that scale-free social networks are prone to the spreading of rumours, just as they are to the spreading of infections. They are relevant to the spreading dynamics of chain emails, viral advertising and large-scale information dissemination algorithms on the Internet.     

A Class of Rumor Spreading Models with Population Dynamics

Based on the characteristics of rumor spreading in online social networks, this paper proposes a new rumor spreading model. This is an improved SIS rumor spreading model in online social networks that combines the transmission dynamics and population dynamics with consideration of the impact of both of the changing number of online social network users and different levels of user activity. We numerically simulate the rumor spreading process. The results of numerical simulation show that the improved SIS model can successfully characterize the rumor spreading behavior in online social networks. We also give the effective strategies of curbing the rumor spreading in online social networks.     

Online social networks—Paradise of computer viruses

Online social network services have attracted more and more users in recent years. So the security of social networks becomes a critical problem. In this paper, we propose a virus propagation model based on the application network of Facebook, which is the most popular among these social network service providers. We also study the virus propagation with an email virus model and compare the behaviors of a virus spreading on Facebook with the original email network. It is found that Facebook provides the same chance for a virus spreading while it gives a platform for application developers. And a virus will spread faster in the Facebook network if users of Facebook spend more time on it.     

Integrated systemic inflammatory response syndrome epidemic model in scale-free networks

Based on the scale-free network, an integrated systemic inflammatory response syndrome model with artificial immunity, a feedback mechanism, crowd density and the moving activities of an individual can be built. The effects of these factors on the spreading process are investigated through the model. The research results show that the artificial immunity can reduce the stable infection ratio and enhance the spreading threshold of the system. The feedback mechanism can only reduce the stable infection ratio of system, but cannot affect the spreading threshold of the system. The bigger the crowd density is, the higher the infection ratio of the system is and the smaller the spreading threshold is. In addition, the simulations show that the individual movement can enhance the stable infection ratio of the system only under the condition that the spreading rate is high, however, individual movement will reduce the stable infection ratio of the system.     

Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic and awareness diffusion on multiplex networks

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has been widely spread around the world,and the control and behavior dynamics are still one of the important research directions in the world.Based on the characteristics of COVID-19’s spread,a coupled disease-awareness model on multiplex networks is proposed in this paper to study and simulate the interaction between the spreading behavior of COVID-19 and related information.In the layer of epidemic spreading,the nodes can be divided into five categories,where the topology of the network represents the physical contact relationship of the population.The topological structure of the upper network shows the information interaction among the nodes,which can be divided into aware and unaware states.Awareness will make people play a positive role in preventing the epidemic diffusion,influencing the spread of the disease.Based on the above model,we have established the state transition equation,through the microscopic Markov chain approach(MMCA),and proposed the propagation threshold calculation method under the epidemic model.Furthermore,MMCA iteration and the Monte Carlo method are simulated on the static network and dynamic network,respectively.The current results will be beneficial to the study of COVID-19,and propose a more rational and effective model for future research on epidemics.     

基于移动社交网络的谣言传播动力学研究

本文在CSR传播模型的基础上提出基于移动社交网络的CSR的谣言传播模型. 改进了CSR模型的传播规则和传播动力学方程, 使得更符合移动SNS上用户的使用习惯. 在CSR模型中的接受概率数学模型基础上, 考虑个人接受阈值对接受概率的影响, 更符合人类接受谣言的心理学特点. 本文对该传播模型进行了理论分析. 并在仿真实验中, 利用多agent仿真平台对新模型和CSR模型以及SIR模型 在匀质网络和异质网络中的传播效果进行了对比研究, 从实验的结果来看, 新的谣言传播模型在匀质网络中传播范围更广, 传播速度更快. 新模型具有初值敏感性的特点. 关键词： 复杂网络 移动社交网络 谣言传播     

Rumor spreading model considering forgetting and remembering mechanisms in inhomogeneous networks

The SIHR rumor spreading model with consideration of the forgetting and remembering mechanisms was studied in homogeneous networks. We further investigate the properties of the SIHR model in inhomogeneous networks. The SIHR model is refined and mean-field equations are derived to describe the dynamics of the rumor spreading model in inhomogeneous networks. Steady-state analysis is carried out, which shows no spreading threshold existing. Numerical simulations are conducted in a BA scale-free network. The simulation results show that the network topology exerts significant influences on the rumor spreading: In comparison with the ER network, the rumor spreads faster and the final size of the rumor is smaller in BA scale-free network; the forgetting and remembering mechanisms greatly impact the final size of the rumor. Finally, through the numerical simulation, we examine the effects that the spreading rate and the stifling rate have on the the influence of the rumor. In addition, the no threshold result is verified.     

一种基于元胞自动机的自适应网络病毒传播模型

自适应网络是节点动力学和网络动力学相互作用和反馈的演化网络. 基于元胞自动机建立自适应网络中易感-感染-易感(susceptible-infected-susceptible)的病毒传播模型,研究节点为了规避病毒传播所采取的多种网络重连规则对病毒传播及网络统计特征的影响. 结果表明:自适应网络中的重连规则可以有效减缓病毒传播速度,降低病毒传播规模;随机重连规则使得网络统计特征趋于随机网络;基于元胞自动机建立的传播模型清晰地表达了病毒在传播过程中的双稳态现象. 关键词： 自适应网络 传播动力学 网络动力学 元胞自动机     

Scaling of the propagation of epidemics in a system of mobile agents

For a two-dimensional system of agents modeled by molecular dynamics, we simulate epidemics spreading, which was recently studied on complex networks. Our resulting network model is time-evolving. We study the transitions to spreading as function of density, temperature and infection time. In addition, we analyze the epidemic threshold associated to a power-law distribution of infection times.     

复杂网络上的意见动力学对谣言传播的影响

通过在SIR(susceptible-infected-recovered)模型中引入抑制者对谣言的辟谣机制研究了在线社交网络上的意见动力学对谣言传播的影响.在这一模型中,节点可以与自身的邻居组成1个群,传播者可以通过该群传播信息,抑制者也可以在此群中对信息发表意见进行辟谣.辟谣机制在降低未知者对于谣言的接受概率的同时也可以促使传播者向抑制者转变.本文采用ER(Erd?s-Rényi)随机网络、无标度网络以及真实的社交网络研究了抑制者的沉默概率对于谣言传播范围的影响.首先发现,谣言传播的过程以传播者的峰值为界可以分为两个阶段,即谣言自由传播的前期以及抑制者和传播者互相制衡的后期;其次,谣言的传播会随着抑制者的沉默概率的增大而突然暴发.在谣言暴发阈值之下,沉默概率的增大不会导致谣言传播范围显著增大,这是由于未知者在感知到谣言并转变为传播者后又迅速转变为抑制者;而当沉默概率达到谣言暴发阈值时,抑制者将不能控制传播者对谣言的传播从而导致抑制者的降低和谣言的暴发;最后,无标度上的谣言自由传播的前期阶段比随机网络持续的时间更短,从而使无标度上的谣言更难以暴发.本文的模型综合考虑了意见动力学和谣言传播的相互作用,更加真实地模拟了真实世界社交网络中的谣言传播过程.为谣言传播的控制和干预提供了一些有用的思路和见解.     

Modelling the spread of sexually transmitted diseases on scale-free networks

In this paper a new model for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) is presented. The dynamic behaviors of the model on a heterogenous scale-free (SF) network are considered, where the absence of a threshold on the SF network is demonstrated, and the stability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained. Three immunization strategies, uniform immunization, proportional immunization and targeted immunization, are applied in this model. Analytical and simulated results are given to show that the proportional immunization strategy in the model is effective on SF networks.     

多关系网络上的流行病传播动力学研究

多关系网络已经吸引了许多人的注意, 目前的研究主要涉及其拓扑结构及其演化的分析、 不同类型关系的挖掘、重叠社区的检测、级联失效动力学等. 然而,多关系网络上流行病传播的研究还相对较少. 由此提出一种双关系网络模型(工作-朋友关系网), 研究多关系对于流行病传播动力学行为的影响. 在全接触模式下, 多关系的存在会显著降低网络中的爆发阈值, 使得疾病更容易流行而难以控制. 对比ER (Erdös-Rènyi), WS (Watts-Strogatz), BA (Barabási-Albert)三种网络, 由于结构异质性的差异, WS网络受到的影响最大, ER网络次之, BA网络最小. 有趣的是, 其爆发阈值的相对变化大小与网络结构无关. 在单点接触模式下, 增加强关系的权重将显著提升爆发阈值, 降低感染密度; 随着强关系的比例变化将出现最优值现象: 极大的爆发阈值和极小的感染密度. 随着强关系的边权增加, 达到最优值的边比例将减少. 更为有趣的是, 三个网络中优值出现的位置几乎一致, 独立于网络结构. 这一研究不但有助于理解多关系网络上的病毒传播过程, 也为多关系网络研究提供了一个新的视角. 关键词： 多关系网络 流行病传播 接触模式 爆发阈值     

The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks

We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.     

Disease spreading in structured scale-free networks

We study the spreading of a disease on top of structured scale-free networks recently introduced. By means of numerical simulations we analyze the SIS and the SIR models. Our results show that when the connectivity fluctuations of the network are unbounded whether the epidemic threshold exists strongly depends on the initial density of infected individuals and the type of epidemiological model considered. Analytical arguments are provided in order to account for the observed behavior. We conclude that the peculiar topological features of this network and the absence of small-world properties determine the dynamics of epidemic spreading. Received 16 October 2002 Published online 4 February 2003 RID="a" ID="a"e-mail: yamir@ictp.trieste.it     

Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks

The Internet has a very complex connectivity recently modeled by the class of scale-free networks. This feature, which appears to be very efficient for a communications network, favors at the same time the spreading of computer viruses. We analyze real data from computer virus infections and find the average lifetime and persistence of viral strains on the Internet. We define a dynamical model for the spreading of infections on scale-free networks, finding the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This new epidemiological framework rationalizes data of computer viruses and could help in the understanding of other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.