Optimizing Ports through Computer Simulation Sensitivity Analysis of Pertinent Parameters

This study is concerned with the analysis of the importance of a number of parameters influencing the economic optimum size of a sea port. The combined influence of quay length-as distinct from number of berths-and the total capacity of the cargo handling equipment, expressed as the number of cranes, is studied. The reliability of optimization results is discussed based on their sensitivity to variations in the distributions of ship sizes and crane capacities.     

考虑不完美检测的两阶段点检与备件订购策略联合优化

针对设备维修与备件管理相互影响与制约的问题, 在基于延迟时间理论的基础上, 提出了两阶段点检与备件订购策略联合优化。点检是不完美的, 当点检识别设备的缺陷状态时, 进行预防更新; 设备故障时, 进行故障更新。结合设备更新时备件的状态, 采用更新报酬理论建立了以第一阶段点检时间、第二阶段点检周期和备件订购时间为决策变量, 以最小化单位时间期望成本为目标的模型。最后, 通过人工蜂群算法对模型求解, 并在数值分析中将两阶段点检策略与定期点检策略进行比较, 结果表明:两阶段点检策略始终优于定期点检策略, 验证了所建模型的有效性。     

Combined Sea and Land Transportation

An important problem today in the field of transportation is the standardization of the cargo, e.g. by using containers, and the design of the handling and transportation equipment for the specific cargo to be transported.The paper presents a method for determining the transportation system with emphasis on sea transport. Thus the cargo is to be transported by sea from the factory to customers spread over a large region, e.g. Europe. The problem is to select the ports of call, the quantities to be delivered at the ports, as well as the size and type of vessel.This problem resembles the warehouse location problem (the location of ports) but requires in addition the determination of ship size, type of ship and whether one or more ports should be called at on each journey with a single ship. A discussion is also presented as to the possibility of considering randomness in the system with respect to customer demand and weather conditions.The method used resembles that suggested by Baumol and Wolfe for the ware-house location problem. A concave function of the quantities delivered at each port is derived and this is then shown to converge to a local optimum.An example is solved to illustrate the method.     

自保护相依多部件系统的预防维修建模及策略优化

自保护技术作为自愈技术的一种,能够使系统在环境或工况条件变化的干扰下以较高可靠性运行。本文构建了一个新的具有相依主要部件和辅助部件的系统可靠性模型,其中主要部件的退化速率与工作中的辅助部件的数量有关。此外,基于定期检测和预防维修策略,本文利用半再生过程技术求解了系统的长期运行平均成本,并以长期运行平均成本最小化为目标给出了系统的最优预防维修策略。最后,以镗刀系统为例,利用所提方法给出了预防更换阈值和检测周期的最优值,以期望为实际维修行为决策提供理论参考。     

一种基于随机森林的备件预测模型研究

对舰船零部件发生故障问题进行故障诊断,并对故障诊断结果进行分析,建立舰船零部件备件需求模型,给出零部件之间的发生故障概率的关系与备件需求特征;将随机森林回归原理应用到了舰船零部件的备件需求预测领域,构建了基于随机森林的预测模型,以及预测结果准确率的评价。用诊断结果数据对算法进行验证,结果表明,将随机森林算法运用到舰船的备件预测领域可以为舰船装备在一次海上任务期内备件配置问题提供参考价值。     

不确定箱量下内河集装箱班轮航线动态配载决策

内河集装箱班轮运输中海关抽检可导致外贸箱箱量不断发生变化,班轮航线配载需要动态决策。基于滚动调度策略,将当前港口的配载决策按随机事件划分为多个阶段,以最小化班轮堆栈占用数量和相邻阶段间配载计划偏差为目标,构建单港口单阶段的配载决策模型,进而滚动实现班轮航线动态配载决策。基于大邻域搜索思想设计一种包含整数规划、破坏器与修复器的精确启发式算法,实现港口多阶段滚动配载。基于真实场景的算例研究表明,在优化堆栈占用数量方面,模型与算法之间差异不大,但在考虑相邻阶段间配载计划偏差时,算法的求解结果要优于模型。因此,模型与算法可用来辅助实现不确定箱量下内河集装箱班轮航线动态配载决策,且算法表现更优,可实现配载计划对不确定箱量的鲁棒吸收。     

An efficient memetic algorithm for the graph partitioning problem

We consider the component testing problem of a device that is designed to perform a mission consisting of a random sequence of phases with random durations. Testing is done at the component level to attain desired levels of mission reliability at minimum cost. The components fail exponentially where the failure rate depends on the phase of the mission. The reliability structure of the device involves a series connection of nonidentical components with different failure characteristics. The optimal component testing problem is formulated as a semi-infinite linear program. We present an algorithmic procedure to compute optimal test times based on the column generation technique, and illustrate it with numerical examples.     

Shortest path in the presence of obstacles: An application to ocean shipping

This paper presents the problem of determining the estimated time of arrival (ETA) at the destination port for a ship located at sea. This problem is formulated as a shortest path problem with obstacles, where the obstacles are modelled by polygons representing the coastlines. An efficient solution algorithm is proposed to solve the problem. Instead of generating a complete visibility graph and solving the problem as an ordinary shortest path problem, the algorithm constructs arcs to the ship node during the solution process only when needed. This greatly enhances the algorithmic performance. Computational results based on test problems from an actual dry-bulk shipping operation are provided. The proposed algorithm is implemented in a decision support system for the planning of ship operations and it has successfully been applied on several real life problems.     

面向任务保障的多组件系统效益优化策略

为了保障系统在执行任务期间高可靠、高效益的运行,从系统效益的角度出发,构建了系统可靠性模型,采用边际效应思想构建了效益重要度,提出了一种面向任务保障的多组件系统效益优化策略。当系统可靠度下降到设定阈值时,计算系统各组件的效益重要度,选择效益重要度最大的组件进行备件分配,如此进行迭代,直到完成任务保障,形成最优的备件分配序列。通过该策略实现了以运行效益最优为目标,以系统可靠度和任务保障时长为约束的备件分配序列。最后,通过数值仿真验证了该策略的可行性。     

基于历史故障数据的租赁设备预防维护策略优化

针对租赁设备的特殊性,提出了一种周期预防维护策略模型。该策略综合考虑设备的当前维护周期、预防维护、小修以及惩罚机制等因素对维护成本的影响,从设备的当前维护周期出发,构造出故障率分布的平滑函数,以设备的历史故障数据信息为依据,使用最大似然估计解析方法对设备的故障率分布函数参数进行有效估计,建立以租赁企业维护成本最小化为目标的周期预防维护策略模型。最后是算例分析,研究表明,该策略符合租赁设备维护的实际情况,可为租赁企业提供有效的维护解决方案。     

Optimal policies for a delay time model with postponed replacement

We develop a delay time model (DTM) to determine the optimal maintenance policy under a novel assumption: postponed replacement. Delay time is defined as the time lapse from the occurrence of a defect up until failure. Inspections can be performed to monitor the system state at non-negligible cost. Most works in the literature assume that instantaneous replacement is enforced as soon as a defect is detected at an inspection. In contrast, we relax this assumption and allow replacement to be postponed for an additional time period. The key motivation is to achieve better utilization of the system’s useful life, and reduce replacement costs by providing a sufficient time window to prepare maintenance resources. We model the preventive replacement cost as a non-increasing function of the postponement interval. We then derive the optimal policy under the modified assumption for a system with exponentially distributed defect arrival time, both for a deterministic delay time and for a more general random delay time. For the settings with a deterministic delay time, we also establish an upper bound on the cost savings that can be attained. A numerical case study is presented to benchmark the benefits of our modified assumption against conventional instantaneous replacement discussed in the literature.     

A Condition Based Maintenance Model with Exponential Failures and Fixed Inspection Intervals

This paper discusses a condition based maintenance model with exponential failures, and fixed inspection intervals. A condition of the equipment, such as vibration, is monitored at equidistant time intervals. If the variable indicating the condition is above a threshold an instantaneous maintenance action is performed and the monitored condition takes on its initial value. The equipment can fail only once within an inspection interval. The probability of failure is exponential and the failure rate is dependent on the condition. The cost to be minimized is the long-run average cost of maintenance actions and failures. We study the optimal solution to this problem obtained via dynamic programming and compare it to an approximate steady state solution based on renewal theory.     

Cost effective scheduling of imperfect inspections in systems with hidden failures and rescue possibility

Motivated by real-world critical applications such as aircraft, medical devices, and military systems, this paper models non-repairable systems subject to a delay-time failure process involving hidden and fatal failures in two stages during their missions. A hidden failure cannot cause the system to stop functioning while a fatal failure causes the entire system loss. The system undergoes scheduled inspections for detecting the hidden failure. In the case of a positive inspection result, the system main mission is aborted and a rescue operation is started to mitigate the risk of the entire system loss. The inspections are imperfect and may produce false positive and negative failures. We propose probabilistic models for evaluating performance metrics of the system considered, including mission success probability, system survival probability, expected number of inspections during the mission, and total expected losses. Based on the evaluation models, we formulate and solve an optimization problem of finding the optimal inspection schedule on a fixed mission time horizon to minimize the total expected loss. Examples are provided to demonstrate the proposed methodology and effects of key system parameters on system performance and optimization solutions.     

Optimal Continuous Policies for Repair and Replacement

This paper investigates the problem of finding optimal replacement policies for equipment subject to failures with randomly distributed repair costs, the degree of reliability of the equipment being considered as a state of a Markov process. Algorithms have been devised to find optimal combined policies both for preventive replacement and for replacement in case of failure by using repair-limit strategies.First a simple procedure to obtain an optimal discrete policy is described. Then an algorithm is formulated in order to calculate an optimal continuous policy: it is shown how the optimal repair limit is the solution to an ordinary differential equation, and how the value of the repair limit determines the optimal preventive replacement policy.     

Alternative algorithms for the optimization of a simulation model of a multimodal container terminal

Multimodal container terminals (MMCTs) are very complex and consequently require synchronization and balancing of container transfers at each node. The problem being investigated is the minimization of ship delays at the port by considering handling and travelling time of containers from the time the ship arrives at port until all the containers from that ship leave the port. When dealing with export containers, the problem would be that of the handling and travelling time of the containers from when they first arrive at the port until the ship carrying the containers departs from the port. Owing to the dynamic nature of the environment, a large number of timely decisions have been reviewed in accordance with the changing conditions of the MMCTs. The model has been run and tested with a small-size problem using CPLEX. A more realistic model is extremely difficult to solve and is in fact proven to be computationally intractable (NP-hard). Metaheuristics have been developed to deal with the intractability so that near-optimal solutions could be obtained in reasonable time.     

A model of imperfect preventive maintenance with dependent failure modes

Consider a system subject to two modes of failures: maintainable and non-maintainable. A failure rate function is related to each failure mode. Whenever the system fails, a minimal repair is performed. Preventive maintenances are performed at integer multiples of a fixed period. The system is replaced when a fixed number of preventive maintenances have been completed. The preventive maintenance is imperfect because it reduces the failure rate of the maintainable failures but does not affect the failure rate of the non-maintainable failures. The two failure modes are dependent in the following way: after each preventive maintenance, the failure rate of the maintainable failures depends on the total of non-maintainable failures since the installation of the system. The problem is to determine an optimal length between successive preventive maintenances and the optimal number of preventive maintenances before the system replacement that minimize the expected cost rate. Optimal preventive maintenance schedules are obtained for non-decreasing failure rates and numerical examples for power law models are given.     

Delay-Time Model of Reliability of Equipment Subject to Inspection Monitoring

A model is developed for the reliability of a single component, subject to one type of inspectable defect, which will subsequently lead to a failure. Inspections are assumed perfect. The model utilizes the notion of delay time to establish the reliability consequences of inspecting on different inspection periods. The argument is readily extended to the case of a component with multiple and independent defects. Numerical examples are provided.     

带有多重休假及预防维修的冲击模型二维更换策略

研究了修理工带有多重休假且定期检测的累积冲击模型.为了延长系统的运行时间,在检测时考虑了预防维修.将事后维修和预防维修结合起来运用于可修系统,且假定预防维修能够"修复如新",而事后维修为"修复非新".以系统的检测周期和故障次数为二维决策变量,选取系统经长期运行单位时间内期望费用为目标函数.并通过数值分析,求出了最优策略.     

Component testing of repairable systems in multistage missions

We consider the component testing problem of a device that is designed to perform a mission consisting of a sequence of stages. Once a stage is over, the device is overhauled to replace all failed components before the next stage starts to improve mission reliability. The components fail exponentially where the failure rate depends on the stage of the mission. The reliability structure of the device involves a series connection of redundant subsystems. The optimal component testing problem is formulated as a semi-infinite linear programme. We present an algorithmic procedure to compute optimal test times based on the column generation technique, and illustrate it with numerical results.     

利用贝叶斯网络提高港口国检查效率

提高港口国监控(PSC)的检查效率,本文研究了船舶固有属性(船舶年龄、船旗、船级社、船舶尺度)、港口国检查缺陷项与船舶事故间的影响关系。本文所使用的数据主要来自于英国劳氏船级社(LR)、国际海事组织(IMO)和东京谅解备忘录(Tokyo MOU)三个数据库,共5478条干散货船数据。利用贝叶斯网络(BN)构建模型,并分别采用Bayesian Network (BN)和Greedy thick thinning(GTT)算法构建网络模型。同时利用K-折交叉验证、对数似然函数(LL)、赤池信息量准则(AIC)和贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)对模型进行评估。结果表明船舶的固有属性和关键检查缺陷项对船舶事故均有较高的直接影响,而大多数的港口国监控检查缺陷之间具有相互影响,并且通过关键检查缺陷项对船舶事故产生间接影响。因此可以利用关键检查缺陷项优化港口国检验制度,提高检验效率。