The moments of the forward recurrence times of an alternating renewal process

Expressions for the moments of the forward recurrence times of an alternating renewal process are presented. The alternating phase-type renewal process is considered in detail.     

The correlation of the backward and forward recurrence times in a renewal process

The joint complementary distribution function is used to obtain the covariance function of the backward and forward recurrence times in an ordinary renewal process for both the time dependent and the steady state cases. Hence, a closed form expression for the steady state correlation of the backward and forward recurrence times is obtained and special cases are investigated     

Backward and forward recurrence times,and their interrelationships in Bellman-Harris branching processes

Random variables are constructed for a Bellman-Harris branching process which are the extensions of backward and forward recurrence times from an ordinary renewal process. The sum of the two extended random variables is also constructed, and then the distribution functions for all three random variables are developed. The asymptotic limits for all three time-dependent distributions are also obtained.     

Sojourn time problems in feedback queues

A brief survey of the literature on sojourn time problems in single node feedback queueing systems is presented. The derivation of the distribution and moments of the sojourn time of a typical customer in a Markov renewal queue with state dependent feedback is considered in depth. The techniques used relate to the derivation of a first passage time distribution in a particular Markov renewal process. These results are applied to birth-death queues with state dependent feedback. For such models an alternative approach using the theory of Markov chains in continuous time is also examined.     

Large deviations for renewal processes

We investigate large deviations for the empirical measure of the forward and backward recurrence time processes associated with a classical renewal process with arbitrary waiting-time distribution. The Donsker-Varadhan theory cannot be applied in this case, and indeed it turns out that the large deviations rate functional differs from the one suggested by such a theory. In particular, a non-strictly convex and non-analytic rate functional is obtained.     

Exact Results and Bounds for the Joint Tail and Moments of the Recurrence Times in a Renewal Process

Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability - The best known result about the joint distribution of the backward and forward recurrence times in a renewal process concerns the asymptotic...     

Bernoulli thinning of a Markov renewal process

A Bernoulli thinning of a Markov renewal process is investigated. The properties of the thinned process are considered and are related to the properties of the original process. The parameters, moments and equilibrium of the thinned process are determined in terms of the parameters defining the underlying Markov renewal process. Results are illustrated by examples. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of First-Passage Times for Alternating Brownian Motions

The first-passage-time problem for a Brownian motion with alternating infinitesimal moments through a constant boundary is considered under the assumption that the time intervals between consecutive changes of these moments are described by an alternating renewal process. Bounds to the first-passage-time density and distribution function are obtained, and a simulation procedure to estimate first-passage-time densities is constructed. Examples of applications to problems in environmental sciences and mathematical finance are also provided.AMS 2000 Subject Classification: 60J65, 60G40, 93E30     

LAPLACE TRANSFORM OF THE SURVIVAL PROBABILITY UNDER SPARRE ANDERSEN MODEL

In this paper a class of risk processes in which claims occur as a renewal process is studied. A clear expression for Laplace transform of the survival probability is well given when the claim amount distribution is Erlang distribution or mixed Erlang distribution. The expressions for moments of the time to ruin with the model above are given.     

Renewal Approximations of the Switched Poisson Processes and Their Applications to Queueing Systems

The switched Poisson process (SPP), also known as the doubly stochastic Poisson process, has been widely used in the modelling of point processes whose rates vary subject to some random mechanism. The class of SPP includes a wide range of both renewal and non-renewal processes with squared coefficients of variation being larger than one. In this paper, we survey various approaches to approximate a non-renewal process by a renewal process. We derive the expressions for the first two moments of the inter-renewal time of a renewal process that approximates the SPP. We illustrate the quality of these approximations with numerical results in queueing applications. We believe that our approximations have potential applications in areas such as reliability, inventory control, telecommunications and maintenance.     

On the moments of the time to ruin in dependent Sparre Andersen models with emphasis on Coxian interclaim times

The structural properties of the moments of the time to ruin are studied in dependent Sparre Andersen models. The moments of the time to ruin may be viewed as generalized versions of the Gerber–Shiu function. It is shown that structural properties of the Gerber–Shiu function hold also for the moments of the time to ruin. In particular, the moments continue to satisfy defective renewal equations. These properties are discussed in detail in the model of Willmot and Woo (2012), which has Coxian interclaim times and arbitrary time-dependent claim sizes. Structural quantities needed to determine the moments of the time to ruin are specified under this model. Numerical examples illustrating the methodology are presented.     

Moment Solutions for the State Exiting Counting Processes of a Markov Renewal Process

Important performance measures for many Markov renewal processes are the counts of the exits from each state. We present solutions for the conditional first, second, and covariance moments of the state exiting counting processes for a Markov renewal process, and solutions for the unconditional equilibrium versions of the moments. We demonstrate the relationship between the conditional first moments for the state exiting and the state entering counting processes. For analytical and illustrative purposes, we concentrate on the two state case. Two asymptotic expansions for the moment functions are proposed and evaluated both analytically and empirically. The two approximations are shown to be competitive in terms of absolute relative error, but the second approximation has a simpler analytical form which is useful in analyzing more complex stochastic processes having an underlying MRP structure.     

TheGr X n/G n/∞ system: System size

An important property of most infinite server systems is that customers are independent of each other once they enter the system. Though this non-interacting property (NIP) has been instrumental in facilitating excellent results for infinite server systems in the past, the utility of this property has not been fully exploited or even fully recognized. This paper exploits theNIP by investigating a general infinite server system with batch arrivals following a Markov renewal input process. The batch sizes and service times depend on the customer types which are regulated by the Markov renewal process. By conditional approaches, analytical results are obtained for the generating functions and binomial moments of both the continuous time system size and pre-arrival system size. These results extend the previous results on infinite server queues significantly.     

On the discrete-time compound renewal risk model with dependence

In this paper, we study the discrete-time renewal risk model with dependence between the claim amount random variable and the interclaim time random variable. We consider several dependence structures between the claim amount random variable and the interclaim time random variable. Recursive formulas are derived for the probability mass function and the moments of the total claim amount over a fixed period of time. In the context of ruin theory, explicit expressions for the expected penalty (Gerber-Shiu) function are derived for special cases. We also discuss how the discrete-time compound renewal risk model with dependence can be used to approximate the corresponding continuous time compound renewal risk model with dependence. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate different topics discussed in the paper.     

保费依赖向后重现时间过程风险模型的破产概率上界(英文)

本文研究带利率的风险模型,它的索赔计数过程是一个更新计数过程,保费收入依赖于向后重现时间过程.通过鞅方法和递推技术,得到破产概率的两个指数型上界.最后,还研究了几个具体的例子,并且给出上界的数量比较.     

Analysis of the infinite server queues with semi-Markovian multivariate discounted inputs

We consider a general k-dimensional discounted infinite server queueing process (alternatively, an incurred but not reported claim process) where the multivariate inputs (claims) are given by a k-dimensional finite-state Markov chain and the arrivals follow a renewal process. After deriving a multidimensional integral equation for the moment-generating function jointly to the state of the input at time t given the initial state of the input at time 0, asymptotic results for the first and second (matrix) moments of the process are provided. In particular, when the interarrival or service times are exponentially distributed, transient expressions for the first two moments are obtained. Also, the moment-generating function for the process with deterministic interarrival times is considered to provide more explicit expressions. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of the present model by showing how it allows us to study semi-Markovian modulated infinite server queues where the customers (claims) arrival and service (reporting delay) times depend on the state of the process immediately before and at the switching times.

     

Delayed renewal process with uncertain interarrival times

Delayed renewal process is a special type of renewal process in which the first interarrival time is quite different from the others. This paper first proposes an uncertain delayed renewal process whose interarrival times are regarded as uncertain variables. Then it gives an uncertainty distribution of delayed renewal process and an elementary delayed renewal theorem.     

Departures inGR^{X{n}} /G_n /\infty

Departure processes in infinite server queues with non-Poisson arrivals have not received much attention in the past. In this paper, we try to fill this gap by considering the continuous time departure process in a general infinite server system with a Markov renewal batch arrival process ofM different types of customers. By a conditional approach, analytical results are obtained for the generating functions and binomial moments of the departure process. Special cases are discussed, showing that while Poisson arrival processes generate Poisson departures, departure processes are much more complicated with non-Poisson arrivals.This research has been supported in part by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Grant A5639).     

Generalized inverses and their application to applied probability problems

The main aim of this paper is to examine the applicability of generalized inverses to a wide variety of problems in applied probability where a Markov chain is present either directly or indirectly through some form of imbedding. By characterizing all generalized inverses of I—P, where P is the transition matrix of a finite irreducible discrete time Markov chain, we are able to obtain general procedures for finding stationary distributions, moments of the first passage time distributions, and asymptotic forms for the moments of the occupation-time random variables. It is shown that all known explicit methods for examining these problems can be expressed in this generalized inverse framework. More generally, in the context of a Markov renewal process setting the aforementioned problems are also examined using generalized inverses of I—P. As a special case, Markov chains in continuous time are considered, and we show that the generalized inverse technique can be applied directly to the infinitesimal generator of the process, instead of to I—P, where P is the transition matrix of the discrete time jump Markov chain.     

Renewal-theoretic considerations in evaluation of forecast monitoring schemes

To evaluate the performance of a scheme for monitoring forecasts that are generated by exponential smoothing, forecasters have traditionally used a simulation-based estimator of some characteristic of the associated run-length distribution. The most frequently cited performance measures are the average run length and the probability that the run length does not exceed a user-specified cut-off point. However, there is disagreement about the definition of run length that is appropriate in the context of forecasting. In this paper we use fundamental results from renewal theory to establish the precise relationships between conflicting formulations both of the average run length and of the probability density function for the run length. More generally we derive the asymptotic mean and the asymptotic distribution function of the forward recurrence time for both ordinary and delayed renewal processes whose interoccurrence distributions are arithmetic with a given span. We discuss the practical significance of these results in the context of forecasting. Our findings bear directly on the way in which simulation experiments should be designed and executed to compare alternative forecast monitoring schemes.