Portfolio optimization with early announced discrete dividends

In this article we include discrete dividends in the stock price model and solve the corresponding generalized portfolio optimization problem. For this, we develop a new discrete dividend model that allows for the possibility of early announcement and ensures that the drop of the stock price at the ex-dividend date equals the dividend. The resulting portfolio problem can be solved explicitly for both the wealth and the trading strategy. We find that the resulting optimal portfolio process differs from the Merton strategy.     

Pricing of general European options on discrete dividend-paying assets with jump-diffusion dynamics

Stocks regularly pay dividends at discrete intervals of time while statistical evidence indicates the existence of small “jumps” in the stock price dynamics. In this paper, we find closed-form solutions for the valuation of European options when the underlying asset is modeled by a jump-diffusion process and pays discrete or continuous dividends. The formula is very general and can be used with any specification on the distribution of the jump. Moreover, the formula is written in terms of the Black–Scholes formula with no jumps or dividends and thus indicates the effect of the jumps and the effect of the inclusion of discrete (or continuous) dividends on the price of the option.     

Radner equilibrium in incomplete Lévy models

We construct continuous-time equilibrium models based on a finite number of exponential utility investors. The investors’ income rates as well as the stock’s dividend rate are governed by discontinuous Lévy processes. Our main result provides the equilibrium (i.e., bond and stock price dynamics) in closed-form. As an application, we show that the equilibrium Sharpe ratio can be increased and the equilibrium interest rate can be decreased (simultaneously) when the investors’ income streams cannot be traded.     

Stochastic impulse control with regime switching for the optimal dividend policy when there are business cycles,taxes and fixed costs

We consider the problem of finding the optimal dividend policy for a company whose cash reserve follows a Brownian motion with drift and volatility modulated by an observable finite-state continuous-time Markov chain. The Markov chain represents the regime of the economy. We allow fixed costs and taxes associated with the dividend payments. This optimization problem generates a stochastic impulse control problem with regime switching. We solve this problem and obtain the first analytical solutions for the optimal dividend policy when there are simultaneously fixed costs, taxes and business cycles. Our results show that the optimal dividend policy depends strongly on the regime of the economy, on fixed costs and on taxes.     

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A Markov observation model with dividend is defined and the interpretation of the practical significance is given. We try to use an irreducible and homogeneous discrete-time Markov chain to modulate the inter-observation times and embed a dividend strategy. In the Markov observation model with dividend, a system of liner equations for the expected discounted value of dividends until ruin time is derived. Moreover, an explicit expression is obtained and proved. Finally, some interesting properties are illustrated by numerical analysis and by comparing with the complete compound binomial model with dividend.     

证券组合的Markov链模型

本文将证券价格时间序列分解成趋势变动序列和 Markov链 ,建立了证券组合的 Markov链模型 ,应用 Markov链理论对此模型进行了分析 ,给出了充分大的一个时间内的收益率 ,风险和切点组合的计算公式     

A numerical algorithm for pricing electricity derivatives for jump-diffusion processes based on continuous time lattices

We present a numerical algorithm for pricing derivatives on electricity prices. The algorithm is based on approximating the generator of the underlying price process on a lattice of prices, resulting in an approximation of the stochastic process by a continuous time Markov chain. We numerically study the rate of convergence of the algorithm for the case of the Merton jump-diffusion model and apply the algorithm to calculate prices and sensitivities of both European and Bermudan electricity derivatives when the underlying price follows a stochastic process which exhibits both fast mean-reversion and jumps of large magnitude.     

投资者心态对股票价格走势的作用机理研究

假设股价变化遵循马尔科夫转移过程,考察具有不同心态的投资者的市场行为,给出投资者心态与股价变化之间相互作用的模型,得到了股价走势的两个基本模式,并用此模型解释股价走势中的动量效应和反转效应.     

Regularity of the American Put option in the Black–Scholes model with general discrete dividends

We analyze the regularity of the value function and of the optimal exercise boundary of the American Put option when the underlying asset pays a discrete dividend at known times during the lifetime of the option. The ex-dividend asset price process is assumed to follow the Black–Scholes dynamics and the dividend amount is a deterministic function of the ex-dividend asset price just before the dividend date. This function is assumed to be non-negative, non-decreasing and with growth rate not greater than 1. We prove that the exercise boundary is continuous and that the smooth contact property holds for the value function at any time but the dividend dates. We thus extend and generalize the results obtained in Jourdain and Vellekoop (2011) [10] when the dividend function is also positive and concave. Lastly, we give conditions on the dividend function ensuring that the exercise boundary is locally monotonic in a neighborhood of the corresponding dividend date.     

股票价格的马氏链预测模型

本文探讨了马尔科夫链的预测技术,利用马氏链预测方法分析了申华控股(600653)价格的变动情况,对其价格进行短期预测和长期涨跌趋势、运动周期的预测,研究结果与实际情况比较一致。     

Regularity of Harmonic Functions for Some Markov Chains with Unbounded Range

We consider a class of continuous time Markov chains on ? ^d . These chains are the discrete space analogue of Markov processes with jumps. Under some conditions, as we show, harmonic functions associated with these Markov chains are Hölder continuous.     

具有连续红利的幂型欧式期权定价

在等价鞅测度框架下,讨论了在期权到期时刻具有连续红利支付的幂型股票欧式期权的定价公式.这里我们假设市场无风险利率,股票预期收益率,股价波动率以及股票红利率都是时间的确定性函数.     

Risk Minimizing Option Pricing in a Regime Switching Market

Abstract

We study option pricing in a regime switching market where the risk free interest rate, growth rate and the volatility of a stock depends on a finite state Markov chain. Using a minimal martingale measure we show that the risk minimizing option price satisfies a system of Black–Scholes partial differential equations with weak coupling.     

Determining the fill rate for a periodic review inventory policy with capacitated replenishments,lost sales and zero lead time

In this paper we consider a periodic review order-up-to inventory system with capacitated replenishments, lost sales and zero lead time. We consider discrete demand. It is shown that the initial stock levels of the different review periods form a Markov chain and we determine the transition matrix. Furthermore we study for what probability mass functions of the review period demand the Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution. Finally, we present a method to determine the fill rate.     

随机支付红利的跳-扩散模型的期权定价

假设股票随机支付红利,且红利的大小与支付红利时刻及股票价格有关,并假设股票价格过程服从跳—扩散模型(其中跳跃过程为Poisson过程)的条件下,建立了股票价格行为模型,应用保险精算法给出了欧式看涨和看跌期权的定价公式,推广了Merton关于期权定价的结果。     

用等效用原理对马氏链市场的UL生存合约定价

利用效用无差异原理,根据动态规划原则,最大化财富的期望指数效用,在马氏链驱动的市场下,导出HJB方程,给出unit-linked(UL)生存合约在简单Poisson市场下的保费方程,并给出它的数值模拟．这个结果推广了Brown运动驱动的市场下的保费方程,使得UL生存合约在联接到纯跳的市场时,可以用效用无差异原理定价．     

混合分数布朗运动环境下欧式期权定价

假设股票价格变化过程服从混合分数布朗运动,建立了混合分数布朗环境下支付连续红利的欧式股票期权的定价模型.利用混合分数布朗运动的It-公式,将支付连续红利的欧式股票期权的定价问题转化为一个偏微分方程,通过偏微分方程求解获得了混合分数布朗运动环境下支付连续红利的欧式股票看涨期权的定价公式.     

含交易费用的投资组合问题的新模型及其求解途径

本文提出了证券投资组合的一个新模型.该模型综合考虑了证券的收益率、证券分红和证券价格的关系,并将证券分红和证券价格作为系统的随机参数处理,建立了证券投资组合的随机规划模型.利用机会约束规划方法,我们研究了将所建立的随机规划模型转化为普通光滑优化问题求解的方法,得到了该类问题求解的有效途径.     

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In this paper, we propose a regime-switching Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) stochastic mortality model with jumps, in whichthe economic and environment conditions are described by a homogenous, finite-state Markov chain. Using the idea of change of measure, we derive an exponential affine form of the fourier transform of a dampened option-type longevity derivative price.     

A risk model with paying dividends and random environment

We consider a discrete time risk model where dividends are paid to insureds and the claim size has a discrete phase-type distribution, but the claim sizes vary according to an underlying Markov process called an environment process. In addition, the probability of paying the next dividend is affected by the current state of the underlying Markov process. We provide explicit expressions for the ruin probability and the deficit distribution at ruin by extracting a QBD (quasi-birth-and-death) structure in the model and then analyzing the QBD process. Numerical examples are also given.