Open-Loop Viable Control Under Uncertain Initial State Information

We consider the problem of open-loop viable control of a nonlinear system in Rⁿ in the case of a nonexactly known initial state. We characterize the family of those initial sets for which the problem is solvable. The characterization employs the notion of a contingent field to a given collection of sets introduced in the paper. It also involves an appropriate set-dynamic equation that describes the evolution of the state estimation within a prescribed collection of sets. An extension of the classical concept of viability kernel with respect to this set-dynamic equation is the key tool. We present an approximation scheme for the viability kernel which is numerically realizable in the case of low dimension and simple collections of sets chosen for state estimation (balls, ellipsoids, polyhedrons, etc.). As an application, we consider a viability differential game, where the uncertainty may enter also in the dynamics of the system as an input which is not known in advance. The control is then sought as a nonanticipative strategy depending on the uncertain input.     

Uncertain partial differential equation with application to heat conduction

This paper first presents a tool of uncertain partial differential equation, which is a type of partial differential equations driven by Liu processes. As an application of uncertain partial differential equation, uncertain heat equation whose noise of heat source is described by Liu process is investigated. Moreover, the analytic solution of uncertain heat equation is derived and the inverse uncertainty distribution of solution is explored. This paper also presents a paradox of stochastic heat equation.     

Properties of the Optimal Ellipsoids Approximating the Reachable Sets of Uncertain Systems

The ellipsoidal estimation of reachable sets is an efficient technique for the set-membership modelling of uncertain dynamical systems. In the paper, the optimal outer-ellipsoidal approximation of reachable sets is considered, and attention is paid to the criterion associated with the projection of the approximating ellipsoid onto a given direction. The nonlinear differential equations governing the evolution of ellipsoids are analyzed and simplified. The asymptotic behavior of the ellipsoids near the initial point and at infinity is studied. It is shown that the optimal ellipsoids under consideration touch the corresponding reachable sets at all time instants. A control problem for a system subjected to uncertain perturbations is investigated in the framework of the optimal ellipsoidal estimation of reachable sets.     

Nonparametric estimation of trend for stochastic differential equations driven by mixed fractional Brownian motion

We discuss nonparametric estimation of trend coefficient in models governed by a stochastic differential equation driven by a mixed fractional Brownian motion with small noise.     

An exact minimum variance filter for a class of discrete time systems with random parameter perturbations

An exact, closed-form minimum variance filter is designed for a class of discrete time uncertain systems which allows for both multiplicative and additive noise sources. The multiplicative noise model includes a popular class of models (Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type models) in econometrics. The parameters of the system under consideration which describe the state transition are assumed to be subject to stochastic uncertainties. The problem addressed is the design of a filter that minimizes the trace of the estimation error variance. Sensitivity of the new filter to the size of parameter uncertainty, in terms of the variance of parameter perturbations, is also considered. We refer to the new filter as the ‘perturbed Kalman filter’ (PKF) since it reduces to the traditional (or unperturbed) Kalman filter as the size of stochastic perturbation approaches zero. We also consider a related approximate filtering heuristic for univariate time series and we refer to filter based on this heuristic as approximate perturbed Kalman filter (APKF). We test the performance of our new filters on three simulated numerical examples and compare the results with unperturbed Kalman filter that ignores the uncertainty in the transition equation. Through numerical examples, PKF and APKF are shown to outperform the traditional (or unperturbed) Kalman filter in terms of the size of the estimation error when stochastic uncertainties are present, even when the size of stochastic uncertainty is inaccurately identified.     

Support vector machine classifiers with uncertain knowledge sets via robust optimization

In this article we study support vector machine (SVM) classifiers in the face of uncertain knowledge sets and show how data uncertainty in knowledge sets can be treated in SVM classification by employing robust optimization. We present knowledge-based SVM classifiers with uncertain knowledge sets using convex quadratic optimization duality. We show that the knowledge-based SVM, where prior knowledge is in the form of uncertain linear constraints, results in an uncertain convex optimization problem with a set containment constraint. Using a new extension of Farkas' lemma, we reformulate the robust counterpart of the uncertain convex optimization problem in the case of interval uncertainty as a convex quadratic optimization problem. We then reformulate the resulting convex optimization problems as a simple quadratic optimization problem with non-negativity constraints using the Lagrange duality. We obtain the solution of the converted problem by a fixed point iterative algorithm and establish the convergence of the algorithm. We finally present some preliminary results of our computational experiments of the method.     

Stochastic stability of Burgers equation

The current paper is devoted to stochastic Burgers equation with driving forcing given by white noise type in time and periodic in space. Motivated by the numerical results of Hairer and Voss, we prove that the Burgers equation is stochastic stable in the sense that statistically steady regimes of fluid flows of stochastic Burgers equation converge to that of determinstic Burgers equation as noise tends to zero.     

关于粗糙集和灰色系统之间某些关系的探讨

首先介绍粗糙集与灰色系统两种理论,并对二者进行比较。接着介绍普通粗糙集、P-粗糙集以及灰色集的定义,并就灰色集、模糊集和经典集合三者进行对比分析。我们提出了点灰度和集灰度两种灰度概念用于描述灰色系统的信息不确定性。通过P粗糙集导出相应的灰色集,并研究相关的灰度、粗糙度与边界域的性质和关系。分析表明使用导出的灰色集对系统的信息不确定性的估计与相应的粗糙集是一致的,因此两种理论在描述和处理不确定性信息系统方面的一定的相关性,将两种理论相结合来处理某些不确定性信息系统可能更为有效。     

Maximum likelihood estimation for small noise multiscale diffusions

We study the problem of parameter estimation for stochastic differential equations with small noise and fast oscillating parameters. Depending on how fast the intensity of the noise goes to zero relative to the homogenization parameter, we consider three different regimes. For each regime, we construct the maximum likelihood estimator and we study its consistency and asymptotic normality properties. A simulation study for the first order Langevin equation with a two scale potential is also provided.     

Attractors for stochastic lattice dynamical systems with a multiplicative noise

In this paper, we consider a stochastic lattice differential equation with diffusive nearest neighbor interaction, a dissipative nonlinear reaction term, and multiplicative white noise at each node. We prove the existence of a compact global random attractor which, pulled back, attracts tempered random bounded sets.      

Parameter estimation with model order reduction and global measurements

We present a new method for parameter estimation for elliptic partial differential equations. Parameter estimation requires the evaluation of the partial differential equation for many different parameter sets. Therefore, model order reduction is reasonable. Model order reduction is composed of an offline phase and an online phase. In the offline phase the reduced model is constructed using snapshots. In this paper we use the given measurement as only snapshot. Hence, the computational costs of the offline phase are reduced. (© 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Pullback attractors for modified swift-hohenberg equation on unbounded domains with non-autonomous deterministic and stochastic forcing terms

In this paper, the existence and uniqueness of pullback attractors for the modified Swift-Hohenberg equation defined on $R^{n}$ driven by both deterministic non-autonomous forcing and additive white noise are established. We first define a continuous cocycle for the equation in $L^{2}(R^{n})$, and we prove the existence of pullback absorbing sets and the pullback asymptotic compactness of solutions when the equation with exponential growth of the external force. The long time behaviors are discussed to explain the corresponding physical phenomenon.     

Measure based representation of uncertain information

We discuss the use of monotonic set measures for the representation of uncertain information. We look at some important examples of measure-based uncertainty, specifically probability and possibility and necessity. Others types of uncertainty such as cardinality based and quasi-additive measures are discussed. We consider the problem of determining the representative value of a variable whose uncertain value is formalized using a monotonic set measure. We note the central role that averaging and particularly weighted averaging operations play in obtaining these representative values. We investigate the use of various integrals such as the Choquet and Sugeno for obtaining these required averages. We suggest ways of extending a measure defined on a set to the case of fuzzy sets and the power sets of the original set. We briefly consider the problem of question answering under uncertain knowledge.     

Estimation of level set trees using adaptive partitions

We present methods for the estimation of level sets, a level set tree, and a volume function of a multivariate density function. The methods are such that the computation is feasible and estimation is statistically efficient in moderate dimensional cases (\(d\approx 8\)) and for moderate sample sizes (\(n\approx \) 50,000). We apply kernel estimation together with an adaptive partition of the sample space. We illustrate how level set trees can be applied in cluster analysis and in flow cytometry.     

Nonlinear Dynamical Systems and Adaptive Filters in Biomedicine

In this paper we present the application of a method of adaptive estimation using an algebra–geometric approach, to the study of dynamic processes in the brain. It is assumed that the brain dynamic processes can be described by nonlinear or bilinear lattice models. Our research focuses on the development of an estimation algorithm for a signal process in the lattice models with background additive white noise, and with different assumptions regarding the characteristics of the signal process. We analyze the estimation algorithm and implement it as a stochastic differential equation under the assumption that the Lie algebra, associated with the signal process, can be reduced to a finite dimensional nilpotent algebra. A generalization is given for the case of lattice models, which belong to a class of causal lattices with certain restrictions on input and output signals. The application of adaptive filters for state estimation of the CA3 region of the hippocampus (a common location of the epileptic focus) is discussed. Our areas of application involve two problems: (1) an adaptive estimation of state variables of the hippocampal network, and (2) space identification of the coupled ordinary equation lattice model for the CA3 region.     

Design for estimation of the drift parameter in fractional diffusion systems

We consider a controlled linear differential equation which is partially observed with an additive fractional noise. In this setting, we study the asymptotic (for large observation time) design problem of the input and give an efficient estimator of the unknown signal drift parameter. The optimal estimation input is deduced. The consistency, asymptotic normality and convergence of the moments of the MLE are established.     

Optimal estimation and control of discrete multiplicative systems with unknown second-order statistics

The problem of estimation and control for discrete-time systems with multiplicative noise is examined. Such systems occur naturally in the modeling of stochastic systems with random or unknown coefficients and appear to be robust in contrast to LQG regulators which are sensitive to errors in the coefficients.The statistics of the white sequences of the system are unknown. The problem of stochastic estimation and control of such a system is difficult not only because of the unknown statistics but also because the state is not Gaussian.The approach of this work is to convert the stochastic problem to a deterministic game-theoretic one. We find the estimator and controller so as to minimize a suitable performance measure assuming the worst behavior of nature.A set of necessary and sufficient conditions is developed for the existence of a saddle-point estimator. When both estimation and control are considered, two difficulties appear: the optimality conditions are only necessary and the separation principle collapses. As a result, the saddle-point conditions are only necessary. If the covariances belong to sets with maximal points, then the necessary conditions are satisfied at these points. If, on the other hand, they belong to convex and compact sets and the system has a steady state, then the estimation problem alone has always a saddle-point solution.     

A Note on the Morozov Principle via Lagrange Duality

Considering a general linear ill-posed equation, we explore the duality arising from the requirement that the discrepancy should take a given value based on the estimation of the noise level, as is notably the case when using the Morozov principle. We show that, under reasonable assumptions, the dual function is smooth, and that its maximization points out the appropriate value of Tikhonov’s regularization parameter. The numerical relevance of our approach is established by means of an illustrative example from nonparametric instrumental regression, a standard problem in statistics.     

An Exact Formula for Radius of Robust Feasibility of Uncertain Linear Programs

We present an exact formula for the radius of robust feasibility of uncertain linear programs with a compact and convex uncertainty set. The radius of robust feasibility provides a value for the maximal ‘size’ of an uncertainty set under which robust feasibility of the uncertain linear program can be guaranteed. By considering spectrahedral uncertainty sets, we obtain numerically tractable radius formulas for commonly used uncertainty sets of robust optimization, such as ellipsoids, balls, polytopes and boxes. In these cases, we show that the radius of robust feasibility can be found by solving a linearly constrained convex quadratic program or a minimax linear program. The results are illustrated by calculating the radius of robust feasibility of uncertain linear programs for several different uncertainty sets.     

Guaranteed Nonlinear State Estimator for Cooperative Systems

This paper is about state estimation for continuous-time nonlinear models, in a context where all uncertain variables can be bounded. More precisely, cooperative models are considered, i.e., models that satisfy some constraints on the signs of the entries of the Jacobian of their dynamic equation. In this context, interval observers and a guaranteed recursive state estimation algorithm are combined to enclose the state at any given instant of time in a subpaving. The approach is illustrated on the state estimation of a waste-water treatment process.