基于突变评价法的研究型大学知识创新综合评价

如何评价研究型大学知识创新是建设创新型国家过程中一个亟待解决的现实问题。本文首先在分析各种评价方法、研究型大学知识创新系统的构成及其特点的基础上，介绍了突变评价法的基本思想和步骤，随后利用突变评价法，建立了研究型大学知识创新综合评价指标体系，并对北京地区的12所大学进行综合评价，得出合理的评价结果，证明突变评价法是一种可行的综合评价方法。     

需求导向的双激励临界点型综合评价方法

为了从综合评价的角度解决管理中的激励问题，本文提出一种需求导向的双激励临界点型评价方法，其最大的特色在于评价需求者和被评价对象的需求是方法构建的重要导向，并采用对被评价对象的不同指标分别激励的做法。在考虑被评价对象的需求时，通过判断各指标对被评价对象排序的影响情况，确定被评价对象各指标的优劣类型进而确定对应指标的激励方式和激励量。在考虑评价需求者的需求时，首先通过设置各指标的双激励临界点确定被评价对象各指标的激励方式，然后计算各指标的激励系数，进而确定各被评价对象的激励量。最后通过一个算例对方法的应用进行了说明。     

企业经济效益综合评价方法探讨

企业经济效益综合评价方法探讨吴锡林，王树筠（南开大学分校）（天津大学分校）经济效益评价是经济管理的重要内容之一，工业企业的生产经营活动是一个互相制约、彼此关联的有机整体。因此，企业经济效益的评价一般地表现为多指标的综合评价问题。它是从需要出发，以多个...     

基于模糊因素的载人航天器乘员舱内人-机界面工效学评价研究

载人航天器乘员舱内人－机界面的工效学评价是决定能否进行载人空间飞行的重要依据之一，由于人－机界面本身的复杂性，使得对其评价有一定的难度。本文在模糊理论的基础上，首先对舱内人－机界面工效学评价各参数进行随机模糊分析，据此建立工效学模糊综合评价模型，最后进行了实例研究。结果表明，对于同一个评价对象，应用该方法更能接近实际。     

《数学教育评价》读后

《数学教育评价》读后丁尔最近广西教育出版社寄来魏超群著《数学教育评价》一书．读后获益良多．数学教育评价在我国十余年的实验研究，取得了一些成果，但是尚未形成系统的理论．本书在建立数学教育评价系统理论上走了可喜的一步，已经给我们提供了一个数学教育评价系...     

对数学高考评价研究性学习能力的几点思考

随着数学课程改革的不断深入，数学学习的评价改革也在不断发展．数学课程改革要求改善学生的学习方式，大力倡导研究性学习。相应地数学学习评价，特别是数学高考作为数学学习评价的重要方式之一，必然要对学生的研究性学习能力进行评价．如何在数学高考中评价学生的研究性学习能力？这是当前数学学习评价中需要解决的一个新问题。近年来，上海数学高考对评价学生研究性学习能力进行了研究和实践，取得了一些初步的体会，下面谈谈我们对这个问题的一些思考。     

大气环境质量评价的灰色模型

大气环境是一个包含未知信息的灰色系统，根据其灰色性．运用灰色系统理论可以克服目前一些环境质量评价方法（综合指数法、概率统计法、模糊综合评判法）的局限性，使评价结果更为科学和客观。     

交通运输质量综合评价方法的研究

交通运输业是一个服务特征非常明显的企业，它的生产过程和产品具有一定的特殊性，本根据运输市场规律和生产实际建立了24个指标，以此为基础对运输计划子质量、生产子质量和产品子质量三个子质量进行了定量评价，再以三个子值为基础对运输质量进行了定量综合评价，算例分析表明，该评价方法具有一定的实用价值。     

线性无量纲化方法在群体评价中的扩展及选取

无量纲化处理是开展综合评价的基础，目前线性无量纲化方法很少考虑群体评价的情况。本文针对常用的6种线性无量纲化方法直接应用到群体评价中不能保证各评价者评价信息横向大小顺序的问题，首先对问题进行界定，并对6种线性无量纲化方法进行了扩展；其次进一步分析了扩展后的线性无量纲化方法的性质，并针对群体评价问题引入“横向单调性”和“变量单一性”两个性质，为线性无量纲化方法的设计研究提供重要的参考；再次以无量纲化后的数据最大程度的保留原始信息为原则，针对不同的赋权方法，给出线性无量纲化方法选择的建议；最后，用一个算例检验了方法的有效性。     

产品定级中挑选专家的数学模型

在工农业产品评定级别中，专家组的水平是至关重要的。文中给出一个挑选专家组成员的数学模型，可以检验专家对参评产品的决策水平，为评价所评结论的可信度提供参考依据。     

Optimization Models for Forest Road Upgrade Planning

Road blocking due to thawing or heavy rains annually contribute to a considerable loss in Swedish forestry. Companies are forced to build up large stocks of raw material (saw and pulp logs) in order to secure a continuous supply when access to the road network is uncertain. Storage outdoors leads to quality deterioration and monetary losses. Other related costs due to road blocking are road damage and longer haulage distances. One approach to reduce the losses due to road blocks is to upgrade the road network to a standard that guarantees accessibility. We consider the road upgrade problem from the perspective of Swedish forest companies with a planning horizon of about one decade. The objective is to minimize the combined upgrade and transportation costs. We present two mixed integer programming models, which are uncapacitated fixed charge network flow problems including multiple assortments, several time periods and a set of road classes. One model is based on arc flows and one on route flows. For a typical planning instance, the models become large and we propose how to improve solution performance through model strengthening. The models are tested in a case study for a major Swedish forest company.      

Forestry management under uncertainty

The forest harvest and road construction planning problem consists fundamentally of managing land designated for timber production and divided into harvest cells. For each time period the planner must decide which cells to cut and what access roads to build in order to maximize expected net profit. We have previously developed deterministic mixed integer linear programming models for this problem. The main contribution of the present work is the introduction of a multistage Stochastic Integer Programming model. This enables the planner to make more robust decisions based on a range of timber price scenarios over time, maximizing the expected value instead of merely analyzing a single average scenario. We use a specialization of the Branch-and-Fix Coordination algorithmic approach. Different price and associated probability scenarios are considered, allowing us to compare expected profits when uncertainties are taken into account and when only average prices are used. The stochastic approach as formulated in this work generates solutions that were always feasible and better than the average solution, while the latter in many scenarios proved to be infeasible.     

基于模糊理论的交通安全评价方法的研究

道路交通安全系统的内部结构极为复杂,影响因素众多,各因素都具有模糊性.在综合研究分析国内外道路交通安全评价方法的基础上,对以往发生的道路交通事故资料进行分析,利用模糊评价理论,选取合理评价指标,建立了基于模糊的道路交通安全评价模型,对道路交通的安全性进行合理评价.     

大数据背景下基于5S的城市交通拥堵评价模型研究

近几年来,城市交通拥堵问题日益突出,极大制约了城市发展。在大数据背景下,为了准确掌握交通实时拥堵状况,改善城市交通,便利市民出行,本文深入挖掘城市交通拥堵的影响因素,构建了基于交通5S要素的城市拥堵理论模型,运用径向基函数神经网络方法工具,以上海静安寺、上海站、陆家嘴周围三大拥堵路段的交通数据集为例,验证了该模型的有效性。实验结果表明,由该模型获得的城市交通拥堵预测值与上海实际交通路况具有较好的拟合效果,表明交通5S模型与方法能够准确有效地评价城市交通拥堵。     

城市道路交通信号实时优化控制

通过分析实际道路交通状况,在合理假设的基础上,建立了孤立十字、丁字交叉路口、三个交叉路口线状区域以及六个交叉路口网络状区域的交通信号实时配时数学模型,利用Matlab产生满足泊松分布的车流量实时序列,按照优化目标进行了算法的设计和编程,得到了相应的数值结果,并对优化结果进行了讨论.     

A tabu search approach for solving a difficult forest harvesting machine location problem

This paper deals with two main problems in forest harvesting. The first is that of selecting the locations for the machinery to haul logs from the points where they are felled to the roadside. The second consists in designing the access road network connecting the existing road network with the points where machinery is installed. Their combination induces a very important and difficult problem to solve in forest harvesting. It can be formulated as a combination of two difficult optimization problems: a plant location problem and a fixed charge network flow problem. In this paper, we propose a solution approach based on tabu search. The proposed heuristic includes several enhancements of the basic tabu search framework. The main difficulty lies in evaluating neighboring solutions, which involves decisions related to location of machinery and to road network arcs. Hence, the neighborhood is more complex than in typical applications of metaheuristics. Minimum spanning tree algorithms and Steiner tree heuristics are used to deal with this problem. Numerical results indicate that the heuristic approach is very attractive and leads to better solutions than those provided by state-of-the-art integer programming codes in limited computation times, with solution times significantly smaller. The numerical results do not vary too much when typical parameters such as the tabu tenure are modified, except for the dimension of neighborhood.     

Stochastic optimization models in forest planning: a progressive hedging solution approach

Annals of Operations Research - We consider the important problem of medium term forest planning with an integrated approach considering both harvesting and road construction decisions in the...     

基于权的最小平方法的山区道路交通安全度模糊综合评价

针对山区道路交通特点,综合考虑影响山区道路交通安全度的人、车、路、环境等主要因素,运用层析分析法构建道路交通安全度评价指标体系,基于权的最小平方法建立模糊综合评价模型,并利用加权平均原则对其进行综合评价.以云南省罗富路"者桑"段为例,结果表明该模型可以有效的反映道路的安全状况,且权的最小平方法可以实现道路交通安全度主要影响因素权重系数的精确分配,合理反映各评价指标的重要性,为提高道路的交通安全性奠定基础.     

Transport Planning in a Multi-resource Context: The Morecambe Bay Barrage†

The paper describes work done by the Mathematical Advisory Unit of the Ministry of Transport to derive the net transport value of a Barrage across Morecambe Bay, as a contribution to the assessment of non-water benefits made by an Economic Study Group under the aegis of the Department of Economic Affairs' North West Regional Office. The basic method was to establish a traffic model which could represent traffic movements on the road network of north Lancashire, Westmorland and west Cumberland, to use this model to predict the traffic consequences of a road-bearing Barrage (and a number of other projects in combination), and to estimate the economic benefits accruing from these different alternative networks.Problems which arose in establishing the net value of the Barrage included the strong interdependence of the benefits to the Barrage on the possible existence of other projects such as the Arnside Link and the Duddon estuary crossing (and vice versa), the budget constraint for road building in the Ministry of Transport, which has the effect of raising the criteria for road projects above those normally required for other public sector investments, and the timing of other projects on the worthwhileness of the Barrage. The effect of tolls was studied also.Under certain assumptions about other planning decisions, the gross transport benefits of the Barrage were estimated to be £24·5m, in present-value terms calculated at 8 per cent to 1981. An investment of £6·6m was required, in link and approach roads, to yield this benefit. The net present value at 1981 is thus about £18m. In view of the Ministry of Transport's budget constraint, a figure which more appropriately represents the value of the Barrage as a road-bearing structure, given other road projects on which money might be spent, is £24·5m £ 2·5 less £6·6m, which is £3·2m.     

OPTIMAL FOREST STAND MANAGEMENT WHEN BENEFITS ARE DERIVED FROM CARBON

The management of second-growth and old-growth forest stands has important implications for the global carbon cycle. This paper considers the optimal forest rotation when flows of CO₂ to carbon have positive value. If benefits are derived only from carbon, then typically it will never be optimal to harvest any forest stands. This result is a formalization and extension of Harmon et al. [1990]. Private forest owners will often maximize net returns to timber, ignoring benefits from carbon sequestration. Thus, the privately and socially optimal rotations will not generally coincide. We show that the socially optimal rotation is always greater than the privately optimal rotation and less than or equal to the rotation when only carbon is valued.