基于惩罚回归样条的积分近似计算与应用

提出一种利用惩罚回归样条拟合被积函数f(x),从而计算复杂积分∫baf(x)dx的新方法.在仅知f(x)带随机扰动的离散数据点集的情况下,利用基于截断幂形式的样条基函数,通过惩罚样条回归,给出函数的多项式拟合结果,再根据该多项式形式便捷计算出积分.模拟和实际应用结果显示该方法计算简单快捷,并具有较好的准确度.     

删失数据回归误差项的非参数密度估计的一致相合性(英文)

回归误差项是不可观测的. 由于回归误差项的密度函数在实际中有许多应用, 故使用非参数方法对其进行估计就成为回归分析中的一个基本问题. 针对完全观测数据回归模型, 曾有作者对此问题进行了研究. 然而在实际应用中, 经常会有数据被删失的情况发生, 在此情况下, 可以利用删失回归残差, 并使用核估计的方法对回归误差项的密度函数进行估计. 本文研究了该估计的大样本性质, 并证明了估计量的一致相合性.     

基于众数回归的部分函数型线性可加模型的稳健估计

本文讨论部分函数型线性可加模型参数的稳健估计,该模型由经典的可加回归模型和函数型线性模型组合而成.采用B-样条基函数对模型中斜率函数和非参数可加函数进行近似,然后通过最大化众数回归目标函数得到基于众数回归的估计.在一些正则条件下,本文给出估计的收敛速度和渐近分布.最后通过模拟计算和应用实例以表明所提方法的有效性.模拟结果表明,该方法不仅具有稳健性,即不易受污染数据或厚尾分布的影响,而且在信噪比较大时可以与最小二乘方法有相同的表现.     

改进的水平集方法及其在图像分割中的应用

为了稳定水平集函数的演化过程,提出了一种改进的距离规则化水平集方法,新方法与传统的距离规则化方法相比,能更好地维持水平集函数的符号距离函数特性.为了检验新方法的性能,首先将其应用到基于边缘的主动轮廓模型中并用于图像分割,实验结果表明新方法能有效提高分割效率和精度.同时,还将新方法应用到一种改进的基于区域的主动轮廓模型中,实验结果不仅进一步验证了新方法的有效性,还表明新方法能改善初始位置的鲁棒性.     

单调缺失机制下高维纵向线性回归模型的变量选择

在响应变量带有单调缺失的情形下考虑高维纵向线性回归模型的变量选择.主要基于逆概率加权广义估计方程提出了一种自动的变量选择方法,该方法不使用现有的惩罚函数,不涉及惩罚函数非凸最优化的问题,并且可以自动地剔除零回归系数,同时得到非零回归系数的估计.在一定正则条件下,证明了该变量选择方法具有Oracle性质.最后,通过模拟研究验证了所提出方法的有限样本性质.     

基于局部多项式回归的模型校准抽样估计研究

在抽样估计中,当研究变量与辅助变量之间呈非线性关系时,传统的校准估计方法效果较差,基于非参数回归方法的模型校准估计量则可以很好地解决这一问题。首先,建立描述研究变量和辅助变量之间关系的超总体回归模型,使用非参数中的局部多项式方法得出模型参数的拟合值,并结合校准估计得出局部多项式模型校准估计量,同时给出其方差和方差估计量公式,证明了该估计量具有渐近无偏性、一致性和渐近正态性等优良的统计性质。然后,使用仿真模拟的方法证明在研究变量与研究变量之间呈非线性关系时,该估计量有良好的估计效果。最后,对该估计量在我国政府统计中的应用进行简单的介绍。     

复发事件下加性乘积比率回归模型

本文基于复发事件数据,研究了半参数加性乘积比率回归模型的统计问题,利用估计方程的思想,给出了该模型中未知参数和非参数函数的一种估计方法,同时证明了所提出估计的相合性和渐近正态性．     

平稳增广混合回归模型参数估计的一种新方法及其应用

本文提出平稳增广混合回归模型参数估计的一种新方法,该方法采用逐次投影分离参数的方法直接给出模型中自回归部分参数的估计,并由此而获得回归部分参数的估计。该方法克服了以往解此类问题时只能用近似求解方法的缺点。将该方法用到雷达使用有效度预测方程的参数估计中,取得令人满意的效果。     

线性定常系统非齐次两点边值问题的扩展精细积分方法

提出了一种求解非齐次线性两点边值问题的高精度和高稳定的扩展精细积分方法（EPIM）.首先引入了区段量（即区段矩阵和区段向量）来离散非齐次线性微分方程,建立了非齐次两点边值问题基于区段量的求解框架.在该框架下,不同区段的区段量可以并行计算,整体代数方程组的集成不依赖于边界条件.然后引入区段响应矩阵来处理两点边值问题的非齐次项,导出了多项式函数、指数函数、正/余弦函数及其组合函数形式的非齐次项对应的区段响应矩阵的加法定理,结合增量存储技术提出了EPIM.对具有上述函数形式的非齐次项,该方法可以得到计算机上的精确解,一般形式的非齐次项则利用上述函数近似求解.最后通过两个具有刚性特征的数值算例验证了该方法的高精度和高稳定性.     

一种获得各向异性平面梁在任意荷载作用下弹性解的新方法

通过求解函数方程,给出了一种获得各向异性线性平面梁弹性解的新方法,该方法可以考虑任意形式的荷载以及各种端部支撑条件．将该方法与传统的逆解法或者半逆解法比较,其最大的好处在于不需要猜测应力函数的形式而直接获得问题的精确解．算例验证了该方法的正确性,同时也提供了一种求解平面梁承受任意荷载的新思路.     

Approximation and contamination bounds for probabilistic programs

In many applications of manufacturing and service industries, the quality of a process is characterized by the functional relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables. Profile monitoring is for checking the stability of this relationship over time. In some situations, multiple profiles are required in order to model the quality of a product or process effectively. General multivariate linear profile monitoring is particularly useful in practice due to its simplicity and flexibility. However, in such situations, the existing parametric profile monitoring methods suffer from a drawback in that when the profile parameter dimensionality is large, the detection ability of the procedures commonly used T ²-type charting statistics is likely to decline substantially. Moreover, it is also challenging to isolate the type of profile parameter change in such high-dimensional circumstances. These issues actually inherit from those of the conventional multivariate control charts. To resolve these issues, this paper develops a new methodology for monitoring general multivariate linear profiles, including the regression coefficients and profile variation. After examining the connection between the parametric profile monitoring and multivariate statistical process control, we propose to apply a variable-selection-based multivariate control scheme to the transformations of estimated profile parameters. Our proposed control chart is capable of determining the shift direction automatically based on observed profile data. Thus, it offers a balanced protection against various profile shifts. Moreover, the proposed control chart provides an easy but quite effective diagnostic aid. A real-data example from the logistics service shows that it performs quite well in the application.     

联合监测过程位置参数和尺度参数的非参数Shewhart控制图

用于检测生产服务过程的传统控制图多数都假定过程的分布是已知的。这些控制困经常是在正态分布的假设下构建的,然而在服务质量实时监控中数据往往是非正态的。在这种情况下,基于正态分布假设的控制图的结果是不可靠的。为了解决这个问题,通常考虑非参数方法,因为在过程分布未知情况下,非参数控制图比参数图更加稳健有效。本文提出一个新的基于Van der Waerden和Klotz检验的Lepage型非参数Shewhart控制图(称为LPN图)用于同时检测未知连续过程分布的位置参数和尺度参数。文中给出了LPN图在不同参数下的控制限。依据运行长度分布的均值,方差和分位数,分析了LPN图在过程受控和失控时的性能,并与其他一些现有的非参数控制图进行比较。基于蒙特卡洛的模拟结果表明,LPN图对非正态分布具有很好的稳健性,并且在不同的过程分布下对检测位置参数和尺度参数,尤其对检测尺度参数的漂移都具有很好的性能。最后通过监控出租车服务质量说明LPN图在实际中的应用。     

Bayesian Nonparametric Modeling for Multivariate Ordinal Regression

Univariate or multivariate ordinal responses are often assumed to arise from a latent continuous parametric distribution, with covariate effects that enter linearly. We introduce a Bayesian nonparametric modeling approach for univariate and multivariate ordinal regression, which is based on mixture modeling for the joint distribution of latent responses and covariates. The modeling framework enables highly flexible inference for ordinal regression relationships, avoiding assumptions of linearity or additivity in the covariate effects. In standard parametric ordinal regression models, computational challenges arise from identifiability constraints and estimation of parameters requiring nonstandard inferential techniques. A key feature of the nonparametric model is that it achieves inferential flexibility, while avoiding these difficulties. In particular, we establish full support of the nonparametric mixture model under fixed cut-off points that relate through discretization the latent continuous responses with the ordinal responses. The practical utility of the modeling approach is illustrated through application to two datasets from econometrics, an example involving regression relationships for ozone concentration, and a multirater agreement problem. Supplementary materials with technical details on theoretical results and on computation are available online.     

因变量缺失下部分线性变系数变量含误差模型的估计

该文主要考虑部分线性变系数模型在自变量含有测量误差以及因变量存在缺失情形下的估计问题.基于Profile最小二乘技术,针对参数分量和非参数分量提出了多种估计方法.第一种估计方法只利用了完整观测数据,而第二种和第三种估计方法分别利用了插补技术和替代技术.参数分量的所有估计被证明是渐近正态的,非参数分量的所有估计被证明和一般非参数回归函数的估计具有相同的收敛速度.对于因变量的均值,构造了两类估计并证明了它们的渐近正态性.最后,通过数值模拟验证了所提方法.     

Dynamic modelling of die melt temperature profile in polymer extrusion: Effects of process settings,screw geometry and material

Extrusion is one of the major methods for processing polymeric materials and the thermal homogeneity of the process output is a major concern for manufacture of high quality extruded products. Therefore, accurate process thermal monitoring and control are important for product quality control. However, most industrial extruders use single point thermocouples for the temperature monitoring/control although their measurements are highly affected by the barrel metal wall temperature. Currently, no industrially established thermal profile measurement technique is available. Furthermore, it has been shown that the melt temperature changes considerably with the die radial position and hence point/bulk measurements are not sufficient for monitoring and control of the temperature across the melt flow. The majority of process thermal control methods are based on linear models which are not capable of dealing with process nonlinearities. In this work, the die melt temperature profile of a single screw extruder was monitored by a thermocouple mesh technique. The data obtained was used to develop a novel approach of modelling the extruder die melt temperature profile under dynamic conditions (i.e. for predicting the die melt temperature profile in real-time). These newly proposed models were in good agreement with the measured unseen data. They were then used to explore the effects of process settings, material and screw geometry on the die melt temperature profile. The results showed that the process thermal homogeneity was affected in a complex manner by changing the process settings, screw geometry and material.     

Khmaladze transformation of integrated variance processes with applications to goodness-of-fit testing

In the common nonparametric regression model the problem of testing for a specific parametric form of the variance function is considered. Recently Dette and Hetzler [8] proposed a test statistic which is based on an empirical process of pseudo residuals. The process converges weakly to a Gaussian process with a complicated covariance kernel depending on the data generating process. In the present paper we consider a standardized version of this process and propose an application of the Khmaladze transformation to obtain asymptotically distribution-free tests for the corresponding Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises functionals. The finite-sample properties of the proposed tests are investigated by means of a simulation study.      

FIXED-DESIGN SEMIPARAMETRIC REGRESSION FOR LINEAR TIME SERIES

This article studies parametric component and nonparametric component estimators in a semiparametric regression model with linear time series errors; their r-th mean consistency and complete consistency are obtained under suitable conditions. Finally, the author shows that the usual weight functions based on nearest neighbor methods satisfy the designed assumptions imposed.     

Semiparametric Bayesian optimal replacement policies: application to railroad tracks

We present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for developing replacement strategies. In so doing, we consider a semiparametric model to describe the failure characteristics of systems by specifying a nonparametric form for cumulative intensity function and by taking into account effect of covariates by a parametric form. Use of a gamma process prior for the cumulative intensity function complicates the Bayesian analysis when the updating is based on failure count data. We develop a Bayesian analysis of the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and determine replacement strategies. Adoption of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods involves a data augmentation algorithm. We show the implementation of our approach using actual data from railroad tracks. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Digital contracts-driven method for pricing complex derivatives

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method of nonparametric and parametric methods, that is a digital contracts-driven (DCD) method, for pricing various complex options. Differing from general nonparametric data-driven methods, in which usually the observed data are used as training data directly, in the DCD method the European-style digital contracts of the underlying assets are used as basic inputs for a learning network. The digital contracts calculated from the observed data based upon the parametric method are used as hints in the learning process, and then enable the DCD method to have superior pricing accuracy to the common data-driven method in practical applications. Some Monte Carlo simulation experiments are performed and the results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid method not only has the advantages of generality and superior accuracy as the nonparametric method, but also the robust property to financial data with noise as the parametric method.     

Nonparametric Bayesian topic modelling with the hierarchical Pitman–Yor processes

The Dirichlet process and its extension, the Pitman–Yor process, are stochastic processes that take probability distributions as a parameter. These processes can be stacked up to form a hierarchical nonparametric Bayesian model. In this article, we present efficient methods for the use of these processes in this hierarchical context, and apply them to latent variable models for text analytics. In particular, we propose a general framework for designing these Bayesian models, which are called topic models in the computer science community. We then propose a specific nonparametric Bayesian topic model for modelling text from social media. We focus on tweets (posts on Twitter) in this article due to their ease of access. We find that our nonparametric model performs better than existing parametric models in both goodness of fit and real world applications.