THE ＇HYBRID＇ TECHNIQUE FOR RISK ANALYSIS OF SOME DISEASES

Based on the data obtained from a survey recently made in Shanghai, this paper presents the hybrid technique for risk analysis and evaluation of some diseases. After determination of main risk factors of these diseases by analysis of variance, the authors introduce a new concept ‘Illness Fuzzy Set‘ and use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the risk of suffering from a disease for residents. Optimal technique is used to determinethe weights wi in fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and a new method ‘Improved Information Distribution‘ is also introduced for the treatment of small sample problem. It is shown that the results obtained by using the hybrid technique are better than by using single fuzzy technique or single statistical method.     

多层次模糊综合评判法在宗地估价中的应用

宗地估价中存在着大量的不确定性和模糊性 ,本文以九江市为例应用多层次模糊综合评判法对宗地价格进行评估 ,着重探讨了应用的步骤和数学模型 ,提出它是一种新的土地估价应用方法。     

THE JOINT DISTRIBUTIONS OF SOME ACTUARIAL DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE JUMP-DIFFUSION RISK PROCESS

In this article, the joint distributions of several actuarial diagnostics which are important to insurers’ running for the jump-diffusion risk process are examined. They include the ruin time, the time of the surplus process leaving zero ultimately (simply, the ultimately leaving-time), the surplus immediately prior to ruin, the supreme profits before ruin, the supreme profits and deficit until it leaves zero ultimately and so on. The explicit expressions for their distributions are obtained mainly by the various properties of L′evy process, such as the homogeneous strong Markov property and the spatial homogeneity property etc, moveover, the many properties for Brownian motion.     

复杂系统可靠性分析中的若干统计问题与进展

概述作者近十年来在复杂系统可靠性分析方法研究方面所做的部分研究工作,其中包括:复杂系统可靠性综合评估方法研究;复杂系统贮存可靠性综合评估方法研究;复杂系统可靠性综合验证方法研究;复杂数据类型下的数据填充算法等内容     

文物腐蚀程度分级规范的理论模型

一方面,需要全面了解馆藏文物腐蚀现状,科学分析和评估造成馆藏文物腐蚀损失的原因,为馆藏文物长期保护提供科学依据和对策;另一方面,文物的腐蚀又是具有多样性、复杂性及不间断性的,每一腐蚀程度之间的界限并非十分清晰,而是连续模糊的,这为全面了解馆藏文物腐蚀现状带来了很大困难.因此,建立科学的模型对文物遭受腐蚀侵害的真实情况做出准确的描述迫在眉睫,利用模糊综合评判及其逆问题给出了科学严谨的具体模型.     

关于弱拟凸集与广义凸集逼近的几点注记

本文证明了赋范线性空间中闭弱拟凸集必为凸集,并指出郭元明的”弱拟凸集的一些性质及其应用”、“广义凸集的联合逼近特性”两文中的主要结论实质上是已知的结果.     

导弹最大射程Bayes估计的分析和改进

本文用验前数据的质量因子及估计的相对均方误差分析了导弹最大射程的一类Ｂａｙｅｓ估计的性能，对不同的质量因子，给出了最佳验前数据量的一种近似公式。针对这类Ｂａｙｅｓ估计的冒进问题，本文对它们进行了改进并得到了一类新的估计。最后，通过ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ法比较了这些估计的相对均方误差，验证了新估计的优良性。     

SOME POSTERIOR DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE LAPLACE MEAN

Two posterior distributions for the mean of the Laplace distribution are obtained by deriving the distributions of the product XY and the ratio X/Y when X and Y are Student＇s t and Laplace random variables distributed independently of each other. Tabulations of the associated percentage points are given along with computer programs for generating them.     

定时截尾数据缺失场合下Weibull分布的Bayes分析

本文研究了定时截尾数据缺失场合下的两个参数与可靠度的Bayes估计.利用数值计算的方法,获得了两个参数与可靠度的Bayes估计的近似结果.大量的Monte-Carlo数值模拟试验表明了所给方法是可行的.     

A STRONG ERGODIC THEOREM FOR SOME NONLINEAR MATRIX MODELS FOR THE DYNAMICS OF STRUCTURED POPULATIONS

A general class of matrix difference equation models for the dynamics of discrete class structured populations in discrete time which possess a certain general type of nonlinearity introduced by Leslie for age-structured populations is considered. Arbitrary structuring is allowed in that transitions between any two classes are permitted. It is shown that normalized class distributions for such nonlinear models globally approach a “stable class distribution” and thus possess a strong ergodic property exactly like that of the classical linear theory of demography. However, unlike in the linear theory according to which the total population size grows or dies exponentially, the dynamics of total population size in these nonlinear models are shown to be governed by a nonlinear, nonautonomous scalar difference equation. This difference equation is asymptotically autonomous, and theorems which relate the dynamics of total population size to those of this limiting equation are proved. Examples in which the results are applied to some nonlinear age-structure models found in the literature are given.     

风险决策中信息的效用分析

由于效用观念不同，同样的信息，对不同的决策者，其价值不同。所以，在风险决策中，必须考虑信息的效用。本文首先讨论了效用曲线的确定问题。在此基础上，从效用角度探讨了信息价值的定量评价问题及在决策中的作用，并给出了效用期望值决策方法     

索赔服从Phase-type分布的风险模型破产概率

本文研究了索赔服从Phase-type分布的风险模型在第n次索赔时破产的概率问题.利用Phasetype分布的性质及索赔时刻的盈余与净收入之间的关系,得到盈余密度函数的Laplace变换递推关系,进而得出风险过程在第n次索赔时的破产概率,最后举例说明之.     

THE OPERATIONAL VIEWPOINT AND SOME OF ITS CONSEQUENCES: A SHORT REVIEW

This paper presents first results on fuzzy set theory (with the emphasis on probability theoretical aspects) from an operational viewpoint, a new approach that claims to be a way out of some of the difficulties and to present a consistent framework for the set-theoretical aspects of fuzzy set theory (e.g.the complementation paradoxes vanish, and fuzzy sets become a topos under this interpretation). As a preliminary conclusion of this approach we conjecture that the concept of fuzzy set has two essentially different semantical dimensions, which have not sufficiently been separated in the traditional theory, they may be considered either as an evaluation over a universe (i.e. as a connotation) or as a collection of evaluated object (i.e.as a denotation).     

球对称分布一些子类的特征函数

本文用统一的方法给出了对称Kotz型分布,多元PearsonⅡ分布和椭球logistic对称分布.我们的结果是Iyenger and Tong的结果的推广,另外我们得到了PearsonⅡ型的特征函数的另一种形式.同时,我们讨论了相关的问题.     

一点到一仿射集合投影的加权扰动分析

1引言设AEC“”,M和N分别为m和,;阶Hermite正定阵,则存在唯一的矩阵X6C”””满足AXA一A,XAX一X,（MAX）”一MAX,（NXA）”一NXA,（．1）其中B”为B的共轭转置阵．称满足（互．l）的X为A的加权M－P逆,记作X二A和．特别,当M—I。,N—I。时,A;一A”为矩阵的M－P逆．文献［3—5,11,13］讨论了一点到一仿射集合投影的挑动和加权扰动理论．文献［7,9,18」研究了极小N一范数、M一最小二乘解的扰动分析．本文推广了以上文献的主要结果．考虑如下问题「1,2〕：给定AE〔叩“”,bEC一和广EO,找一个向量X”E…     

修匀法的案例分析

在人寿保险中，预定死亡率是压定纯保费率的一个重要因素之一．本文通过一个具体的实例，介绍预定死亡率的修匀方法．     

SOME TOPOLOGICAL PROPERTIES OF ENDOMORPHISMS OF THE UNIT CIRCLE

In this paper, we give a simple proof for some topological properties of endomorphisms on the unit circle.     

水环境质量评价的模糊聚类法

将模糊聚类最大矩阵元原理与基于数据迭代为基础的水质模糊评价理论模型相结合，形成模糊聚类迭代方法．并用该方法对甘肃金昌市地下水质进行了分类评价，得到了今人满意的结果．     

SOME ESTIMATIONS FOR DETERMINANT OF THE HADAMARD PRODUCT OF H-MATRICES

In this paper,some new results on the estimations of bounds for determinant ofHadamard Product of two H-matrices are given.Several recent results are improved andgeneralized.     

离散纵标方法诸格式的误差分析

In this paper some common used numerical schemes for solving discrete ordinate equations are considered and the error estimates are studied for the combined spatial and angular approximations.The conclusions show that the error order of scalar flux in all of these schemes can not be second order even if the source term f is smooth enouth.In addition,when we introduce a kind of graded grids,the simple step character scheme has same accuracy as “high order“ ones.