Group sequential comparison of two binomial proportions under ranked set sampling design

Ranked set sampling (RSS) is a technique for incorporating auxiliary (concomitant) information into estimation and testing procedures right at the design stage. In this paper, we propose group sequential testing procedures for comparing two treatments with binary outcomes under an RSS scheme with perfect ranking. We compare the power, the average sample sizes and type I errors of the proposed tests to those of the group sequential tests based on simple random sampling schemes. We illustrate the usefulness of the methodology by using data from a clinical trial on leukemia.     

Well-posedness of Bayesian inverse problems in quasi-Banach spaces with stable priors

The Bayesian perspective on inverse problems has attracted much mathematical attention in recent years. Particular attention has been paid to Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) in which the parameter to be inferred lies in an infinite-dimensional space, a typical example being a scalar or tensor field coupled to some observed data via an ODE or PDE. This article gives an introduction to the framework of well-posed BIPs in infinite-dimensional parameter spaces, as advocated by Stuart (Acta Numer. 19:451–559, 2010) and others. This framework has the advantage of ensuring uniformly well-posed inference problems independently of the finite-dimensional discretisation used for numerical solution. Recently, this framework has been extended to the case of a heavy-tailed prior measure in the family of stable distributions, such as an infinite-dimensional Cauchy distribution, for which polynomial moments are infinite or undefined. It is shown that analogues of the Karhunen–Loève expansion for square-integrable random variables can be used to sample such measures on quasi-Banach spaces. Furthermore, under weaker regularity assumptions than those used to date, the Bayesian posterior measure is shown to depend Lipschitz continuously in the Hellinger and total variation metrics upon perturbations of the misfit function and observed data. (© 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

An innovative Bayesian sequential censored sampling inspection method and application to test design

This paper proposes an innovative Bayesian sequential censored sampling inspection method to improve the inspection level and reduce the sample size in acceptance test plans for continuous lots. A mathematical model of Bayesian sequential censored sampling is built, where a new inspection parameter is created and two types of risk are modified. As the core of Bayesian risk formulas, a new structure method of the prior distribution is presented by combining the empirical distribution with the uncertainty of the estimation. To improve the fitting accuracy of parameter estimation, an adaptive genetic algorithm is applied and compared with different parameter estimation methods. In the prior distribution, a prior estimator is introduced to design a sampling plan for continuous lots. Then, three types of producer's and consumer's risks are derived and compared. The simulation results indicate that the modified Bayesian sampling method performs well, with the lowest risks and the smallest sample size. Finally, a new sequential censored sampling plan for continuous lots is designed for the accuracy acceptance test of an aircraft. The test results show that compared with the traditional single sampling plan, the sample size is reduced by 66.7%, saving a vast amount of test costs.     

二项分布参数多层Bayes和E Bayes估计的性质

讨论无失效数据下二项分布参数E Bayes估计和多层Bayes估计的性质,证明二项参数的多层Bayes估计和E Bayes估计渐近相等,且E Bayes估计值小于多层Bayes估计值.     

Bayesian priors based on a parameter transformation using the distribution function

One of the tasks of the Bayesian consulting statistician is to elicit prior information from his client who may be unfamiliar with parametric statistical models. In some cases it may be more illuminating to base a prior distribution for parameter on the transformed version F(/), where F is the data distribution function and v is a designated reference value, rather than on directly. This approach is outlined and explored in various directions to assess its implications. Some applications are given, including general linear regression and transformed linear models.     

On Bayesian group sequential sampling procedures

A general group sequential statistical decision model is investigated. Using a Bayesian approach and Bayesian dynamic programming, we examine structural properties of the cost functions and of optimal sampling procedures. In particular, we consider variable-sample-size-sequential probability ratio tests and show that the so-called onion-skins conjecture is false.     

Bayesian prediction based on a class of shrinkage priors for location-scale models

A class of shrinkage priors for multivariate location-scale models is introduced. We consider Bayesian predictive densities for location-scale models and evaluate performance of them using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. We show that Bayesian predictive densities based on priors in the introduced class asymptotically dominate the best invariant predictive density.     

Bayesian variable selection with sparse and correlation priors for high-dimensional data analysis

The main challenge in working with gene expression microarrays is that the sample size is small compared to the large number of variables (genes). In many studies, the main focus is on finding a small subset of the genes, which are the most important ones for differentiating between different types of cancer, for simpler and cheaper diagnostic arrays. In this paper, a sparse Bayesian variable selection method in probit model is proposed for gene selection and classification. We assign a sparse prior for regression parameters and perform variable selection by indexing the covariates of the model with a binary vector. The correlation prior for the binary vector assigned in this paper is able to distinguish models with the same size. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated with one simulated data and two well known real data sets, and the results show that our method is comparable with other existing methods in variable selection and classification.     

Multisource Bayesian sequential binary hypothesis testing problem

We consider the problem of testing two simple hypotheses about unknown local characteristics of several independent Brownian motions and compound Poisson processes. All of the processes may be observed simultaneously as long as desired before a final choice between hypotheses is made. The objective is to find a decision rule that identifies the correct hypothesis and strikes the optimal balance between the expected costs of sampling and choosing the wrong hypothesis. Previous work on Bayesian sequential hypothesis testing in continuous time provides a solution when the characteristics of these processes are tested separately. However, the decision of an observer can improve greatly if multiple information sources are available both in the form of continuously changing signals (Brownian motions) and marked count data (compound Poisson processes). In this paper, we combine and extend those previous efforts by considering the problem in its multisource setting. We identify a Bayes optimal rule by solving an optimal stopping problem for the likelihood-ratio process. Here, the likelihood-ratio process is a jump-diffusion, and the solution of the optimal stopping problem admits a two-sided stopping region. Therefore, instead of using the variational arguments (and smooth-fit principles) directly, we solve the problem by patching the solutions of a sequence of optimal stopping problems for the pure diffusion part of the likelihood-ratio process. We also provide a numerical algorithm and illustrate it on several examples.     

Shrinkage priors for Bayesian estimation of the mean matrix in an elliptically contoured distribution

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the mean matrix in an elliptically contoured distribution with unknown scale matrix. The Laplace and inverse Laplace transforms of the density allow us not only to evaluate the risk function with respect to a quadratic loss but also to simplify expressions of Bayes estimators. Consequently, it is shown that generalized Bayes estimators against shrinkage priors dominate the unbiased estimator.     

Bayesian predictive densities based on superharmonic priors for the 2-dimensional Wishart model

Bayesian predictive densities for the 2-dimensional Wishart model are investigated. The performance of predictive densities is evaluated by using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. It is proved that a Bayesian predictive density based on a prior exactly dominates that based on the Jeffreys prior if the prior density satisfies some geometric conditions. An orthogonally invariant prior is introduced and it is shown that the Bayesian predictive density based on the prior is minimax and dominates that based on the right invariant prior with respect to the triangular group.     

A class of proper priors for Bayesian simultaneous prediction of independent Poisson observables

Simultaneous prediction and parameter inference for the independent Poisson observables model are considered. A class of proper prior distributions for Poisson means is introduced. Bayesian predictive densities and estimators based on priors in the introduced class dominate the Bayesian predictive density and estimator based on the Jeffreys prior under Kullback-Leibler loss.     

Action-timing problem with sequential Bayesian belief revision process

We consider the problem of deciding the best action time when observations are made sequentially. Specifically we address a special type of optimal stopping problem where observations are made from state-contingent distributions and there exists uncertainty on the state. In this paper, the decision-maker's belief on state is revised sequentially based on the previous observations. By using the independence property of the observations from a given distribution, the sequential Bayesian belief revision process is represented as a simple recursive form. The methodology developed in this paper provides a new theoretical framework for addressing the uncertainty on state in the action-timing problem context. By conducting a simulation analysis, we demonstrate the value of applying Bayesian strategy which uses sequential belief revision process. In addition, we evaluate the value of perfect information to gain more insight on the effects of using Bayesian strategy in the problem.     

Bayesian sequential reliability for Weibull and related distributions

Assume that the probability density function for the lifetime of a newly designed product has the form: [H(t)/Q()] exp{–H(t)/Q()}. The Exponential(), Rayleigh, WeibullW(, ) and Pareto pdf's are special cases.Q() will be assumed to have an inverse Gamma prior. Assume thatm independent products are to be tested with replacement. A Bayesian Sequential Reliability Demonstration Testing plan is used to eigher accept the product and start formal production, or reject the product for reengineering. The test criterion is the intersection of two goals, a minimal goal to begin production and a mature product goal. The exact values of various risks and the distribution of total number of failures are evaluated. Based on a result about a Poisson process, the expected stopping time for the exponential failure time is also found. Included in these risks and expected stopping times are frequentist versions, thereof, so that the results also provide frequentist answers for a class of interesting stopping rules.This research was supported by NSF grants DMS-8703620 and DMS-8923071, and forms part of the Ph.D. Thesis of the first author, the development of which was supported in part by a David Ross grant at Purdue University. The authors thank the editors and a referee for insightful comments and suggestions.     

Bayesian inspection model with the negative binomial prior in the presence of inspection errors

One of the basic assumptions in Bayesian inspection models is that we have some prior knowledge about the number of defects in a certain product or software system. The prior knowledge can be often described as a probability distribution (e.g., Poisson distribution). In the paper, we propose three conditions that should be put forth as desirable properties for a prior probability distribution of the number of defects in the product. We review various prior probability distributions and test if they meet those conditions. The negative binomial distribution is found to be the only one that satisfies all the desirable conditions. With the negative binomial prior, we analyze the effects of various parameters on the Bayesian estimate of the number of undetected errors still remaining in the product.     

Objective Bayesian testing on the common mean of several normal distributions under divergence-based priors

This paper considers the problem of testing on the common mean of several normal distributions. We propose a solution based on a Bayesian model selection procedure in which no subjective input is considered. We construct the proper priors for testing hypotheses about the common mean based on measures of divergence between competing models. This method is called the divergence-based priors (Bayarri and García-Donato in J R Stat Soc B 70:981–1003, 2008). The behavior of the Bayes factors based DB priors is compared with the fractional Bayes factor in a simulation study and compared with the existing tests in two real examples.     

Asymptotically optimal Bayesian sequential change detection and identification rules

We study the joint problem of sequential change detection and multiple hypothesis testing. Suppose that the common distribution of a sequence of i.i.d. random variables changes suddenly at some unobservable time to one of finitely many distinct alternatives, and one needs to both detect and identify the change at the earliest possible time. We propose computationally efficient sequential decision rules that are asymptotically either Bayes-optimal or optimal in a Bayesian fixed-error-probability formulation, as the unit detection delay cost or the misdiagnosis and false alarm probabilities go to zero, respectively. Numerical examples are provided to verify the asymptotic optimality and the speed of convergence.     

A dynamic binomial expansion technique for credit risk measurement: a Bayesian filtering approach

Credit risk measurement and management are important and current issues in the modern finance world from both the theoretical and practical perspectives. There are two major schools of thought for credit risk analysis, namely the structural models based on the asset value model originally proposed by Merton and the intensity‐based reduced form models. One of the popular credit risk models used in practice is the Binomial Expansion Technique (BET) introduced by Moody's. However, its one‐period static nature and the independence assumption for credit entities' defaults are two shortcomings for the use of BET in practical situations. Davis and Lo provided elegant ways to ease the two shortcomings of BET with their default infection and dynamic continuous‐time intensity‐based approaches. This paper first proposes a discrete‐time dynamic extension to the BET in order to incorporate the time‐dependent and time‐varying behaviour of default probabilities for measuring the risk of a credit risky portfolio. In reality, the ‘true’ default probabilities are unobservable to credit analysts and traders. Here, the uncertainties of ‘true’ default probabilities are incorporated in the context of a dynamic Bayesian paradigm. Numerical studies of the proposed model are provided.     

On the maximum total sample size of a group sequential test about bivariate binomial proportions

For testing “univariate” binomial proportions, it has been proven that, under mild conditions, there exist group sequential designs which satisfy the pre-specified Type I error and power of the single-stage design while the sample size is bounded above by that of the single-stage design (Kepner and Chang, 2003). In this article, we extend this result and prove the existence of such group sequential designs for various decision rules in the space of bivariate binomial variables. We also demonstrate how to obtain the actual group sequential designs for detecting changes in bivariate binomial variables.