The impact of patch forwarding on the prevalence of computer virus: A theoretical assessment approach

Virus patches can be disseminated rapidly through computer networks and take effect as soon as they have been installed, which significantly enhances their virus-containing capability. This paper aims to theoretically assess the impact of patch forwarding on the prevalence of computer virus. For that purpose, a new malware epidemic model, which takes into full account the influence of patch forwarding, is proposed. The dynamics of the model is revealed. Specifically, besides the permanent susceptible equilibrium, this model may admit an infected or a patched or a mixed equilibrium. Criteria for the global stability of the four equilibria are given, respectively, accompanied with numerical examples. The obtained results show that the spectral radii of the patch-forwarding network and the virus-spreading network both have a marked impact on the prevalence of computer virus. The influence of some key factors on the prevalence of virus is also revealed. Based on these findings, some strategies of containing electronic virus are recommended.     

一类具有非线性发生率和治疗函数的传染病模型研究

传染病动力学系统的数学建模中,合理的使用非线性发生率往往更能使模型与实际相吻合.并且在实际的疾病防治过程中,由于受到空间人力物力资源的影响一般存在最大治疗容量的限制.结合这两种情况建立了一类含非线性发生率和最大治疗容量限制的传染病模型.通过分析这个模型,得到无病平衡点和正平衡点的存在性、稳定性.进一步取发生率和治疗系统达到最大容量时的感染者人数作为分支参数,得到了Hopf分支和Bogdanov-Takens分支的存在条件,并进行了数值模拟.     

GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF SIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH A SIMPLE VACCINATION AND MULTIPLE ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIA

An SIS epidemic model with a simple vaccination is investigated in this article. The efficiency of vaccine, the disease-related death rate and population dynamics are also considered in this model. The authors find two threshold R0 and Rc (Rc may not exist). There is a unique endemic equilibrium for R0 > 1 or Rc = R0; there are two endemic equilibria for Rc < R0 < 1; and there is no endemic equilibrium for R0 < Rc < 1. When Rc exists, there is a backward bifurcation from the disease-free equilibrium for R0 = 1. They analyze the stability of equilibria and obtain the globally dynamic behaviors of the model. The results acquired in this article show that an accurate estimation of the efficiency of vaccine is necessary to prevent and controll the spread of disease.     

一类具有非线性传染力的阶段结构SI模型

讨论了一类具有非线性传染力的阶段结构 SI传染病模型 ,确定了各类平衡点存在的阈值条件 ,得到了各类平衡点局部稳定和全局稳定的条件 .     

Study on a HIV/AIDS model with application to Yunnan province,China

This paper presents an epidemic model aiming at the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Yunnan, China. The total population in the model is restricted within high risk population. By the epidemic characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Yunnan province, the population is divided into two groups: injecting drug users (IDUs) and people engaged in commercial sex (PECS) which includes female sex workers (FSWs), and clients of female sex workers (C). For a better understanding of HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics, we do some necessary mathematical analysis. The conditions and thresholds for the existence of four equilibria are established. We compute the reproduction number for each group independently, and show that when both the reproduction numbers are less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable. The local stabilities for other equilibria including two boundary equilibria and one positive equilibrium are figured out. When we omit the infectivity of AIDS patients, global stability of these equilibria are obtained. For the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit as much as possible prevalence data publicly available for Yunnan. Increasing strength of the control measure on high risk population is necessary to reduce the HIV/AIDS in Yunnan.     

Dynamics of an HIV‐1 virus model with both virus‐to‐cell and cell‐to‐cell transmissions,general incidence rate,intracellular delay,and CTL immune responses

Direct cell‐to‐cell transmission of HIV‐1 is a more efficient means of virus infection than virus‐to‐cell transmission. In this paper, we incorporate both these transmissions into an HIV‐1 virus model with nonlinear general incidence rate, intracellular delay, and cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) immune responses. This model admits three types of equilibria: infection‐free equilibrium, CTL‐inactivated equilibrium, and CTL‐activated equilibrium. By using Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle invariance principle, it is verified that global threshold dynamics of the model can be explicitly described by the basic reproduction numbers.     

两种群相互竞争的高维SEIR传染病模型全局渐近稳定性

研究了一类两种群相互竞争的非线性高维SEIR传染病数学模型动力学性质,综合利用Lasalle不变集原理,Lyapunov函数,Routh-Hurwitz判据和Krasnoselskii等多种方法,得到了边界平衡点的全局渐近稳定和正平衡点局部渐近稳定的阈值条件.     

一类非线性染病年龄结构模型渐近性态

研究一类具有非线性染病年龄结构SIS流行病传播数学模型动力学性态,得到疾病绝灭和持续生存的阈值--基本再生数.当基本再生数小于或等于1时,仅存在无病平衡点,且在其小于1的情况下,无病平衡点全局渐近稳定,疾病将逐渐消除;当基本再生数大于1时,存在不稳定的无病平衡点和唯一的局部渐近稳定的地方病平衡点,疾病将持续存在.     

Global analysis of a vector-host epidemic model with nonlinear incidences

In this paper, an epidemic model with nonlinear incidences is proposed to describe the dynamics of diseases spread by vectors (mosquitoes), such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue and so on. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The stability of the system is analyzed for the disease-free and endemic equilibria. The stability of the system can be controlled by the threshold number R₀. It is shown that if R₀ is less than one, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R₀ is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Our results imply that the threshold condition of the system provides important guidelines for accessing control of the vector diseases, and the spread of vector epidemic in an efficient way can be prevented. The contribution of the nonlinear saturating incidence to the basic reproduction number and the level of the endemic equilibrium are also analyzed, respectively.     

一类带有种群迁移的SIS传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设同一地区内易感者和染病者具有相同的迁移率系数,建立了一类两地区间种群迁移的SIS传染病模型,得到了地方病平衡点存在的阈值条件,并借助比较定理和极限系统理论证明了无病平衡点和疾病不导致死亡时地方病平衡点的全局稳定性,最后讨论了种群迁移对传染病传播的影响.     

Classical predator–prey system with infection of prey population—a mathematical model

The present paper deals with the problem of a classical predator–prey system with infection of prey population. A classical predator–prey system is split into three groups, namely susceptible prey, infected prey and predator. The relative removal rate of the susceptible prey due to infection is worked out. We observe the dynamical behaviour of this system around each of the equilibria and point out the exchange of stability. It is shown that local asymptotic stability of the system around the positive interior equilibrium ensures its global asymptotic stability. We prove that there is always a Hopf bifurcation for increasing transmission rate. To substantiate the analytical findings, numerical experiments have been carried out for hypothetical set of parameter values. Our analysis shows that there is a threshold level of infection below which all the three species will persist and above which the disease will be epidemic. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of a delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with saturation incidence

In this paper, a delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with saturation incidence is proposed and analyzed. The equilibria and their stability are investigated. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. It is found that if the threshold R ₀<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if the threshold R ₀>1, the system is permanent and the endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable under certain conditions.     

Impacts of TV and radio advertisements on the dynamics of an infectious disease: A modeling study

TV and radio advertisements are widely acknowledged as important interventions in raising issues of public health care and play promising role to control the infection through propagating awareness among the individuals. In this paper, a nonlinear susceptible‐infected‐susceptible (SIS) model is proposed and analyzed to see the impacts of TV and radio advertisements on the spread of influenza epidemic. In the model formulation, it is assumed that the susceptible individuals contract infection through the direct contact with infected individuals. The information regarding the protection against the disease is propagated via TV and radio advertisements, and their growth rates are assumed to be proportional to the fraction of infected individuals. However, the growth rate of TV advertisements decreases with the increase in number of aware individuals. The information broadcasted through TV and radio advertisements induces behavioral changes among the susceptible individuals, and they form an isolated aware class. The epidemiological feasible equilibria, their stability properties, and direction of bifurcation are discussed. The expression for modified basic reproduction number is obtained. The model analysis shows that the dissemination rate of awareness among susceptible individuals due to TV and radio advertisements and baseline number of TV and radio advertisements have potential to reduce the epidemic peak and, thus, control the spread of infection. Further, the analytical findings are well supported through numerical simulation.     

一类S_nIR流行病模型的全局稳定性

根据易感类个体对病毒的易感性不同把传统的易感类S分成n个子类Sk(k=1,2,…,n),建立了SnIR流行病的数学模型,通过对平凡平衡点局部稳定性的分析得到了基本再生数的数学表达式,利用Liapunnov稳定性理论研究了平衡点的稳定性,得到了平凡平衡点全局稳定性及非平凡平衡点全局稳定性的阈值条件.     

Dynamics of an intra-host model of malaria with a constant drug efficiency

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of an intra-host model of malaria with logistic red blood growth, treatment and immune response. We provide a theoretical study of the model. We derive the basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_f$ which determines the extinction and the persistence of malaria within the body of a host. We compute equilibria and study their stability. More precisely, we show that there exists a threshold parameter $\zeta$ such that if $\mathcal R_f\leq\zeta\leq1$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. However, if $\mathcal R_f>1$, there exist two malaria infection equilibria which are locally asymptotically stable: one malaria infection equilibrium without immune response and one malaria infection equilibrium with immune response. The sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed in order to determine the impact of related parameters on outbreak severity. The theory is supported by numerical simulations. We also derive a spatio-temporal model, using Diffusion-Reaction equations to model parasites dispersal. Finally, we provide numerical simulations for parasites spreading, and test different treatment scenarios.     

Modeling diseases with latency and nonlinear incidence rates: global dynamics of a multi‐group model

In this paper, we perform global stability analysis of a multi‐group SEIR epidemic model in which we can consider the heterogeneity of host population and the effects of latency and nonlinear incidence rates. For a simpler version that assumes an identical natural death rate for all groups, and with a gamma distribution for the latency, the basic reproduction number is defined by the theory of the next generation operator and proved to be a sharp threshold determining whether or not disease spread. Under certain assumptions, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R₀≤1 and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable if R₀>1. The proofs of global stability of equilibria exploit a matrix‐theoretic method using Perron eigenvetor, a graph‐theoretic method based on Kirchhoff's matrix tree theorem and Lyapunov functionals. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of an age‐structured host‐vector model for malaria transmission

In this paper, we propose a host‐vector model for malaria transmission by incorporating infection age in the infected host population and nonlinear incidence for transmission from infectious vectors to susceptible hosts. One novelty of the model is that the recovered hosts only have temporary immunity and another is that successfully recovered infected hosts may become susceptible immediately. Firstly, the existence and local stability of equilibria is studied. Secondly, rigorous mathematical analyses on technical materials and necessary arguments, including asymptotic smoothness and uniform persistence of the system, are given. Thirdly, by applying the fluctuation lemma and the approach of Lyapunov functionals, the threshold dynamics of the model for a special case were established. Roughly speaking, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one and otherwise the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when no reinfection occurs. It is shown that the infection age and nonlinear incidence not only impact on the basic reproduction number but also could affect the values of the endemic steady state. Numerical simulations were performed to support the theoretical results.     

Spreading dynamics of a SIQRS epidemic model on scale-free networks

In order to investigate the influence of heterogeneity of the underlying networks and quarantine strategy on epidemic spreading, a SIQRS epidemic model on the scale-free networks is presented. Using the mean field theory the spreading dynamics of the virus is analyzed. The spreading critical threshold and equilibria are derived. Theoretical results indicate that the critical threshold value is significantly dependent on the topology of the underlying networks and quarantine rate. The existence of equilibria is determined by threshold value. The stability of disease-free equilibrium and the permanence of the disease are proved. Numerical simulations confirmed the analytical results.     

A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF A VACCINATION MODEL OF HIV/AIDS WITH STAGED PROGRESSION AND AMELIORATION

An epidemic vaccination model with multiple stages of infection is presented and analyzed. The model allows infected individuals to move from advanced stages of infection back to less advanced stages of infection. A threshold parameter which determines the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium is found. The existence and stability of endemic equilibrium for 2-dimensional phase space are analyzed. At the same time, we put forward an optimal vaccine efficacy.     

Stability analysis for differential infectivity epidemic models

We present several differential infectivity (DI) epidemic models under different assumptions. As the number of contacts is assumed to be constant or a linear function of the total population size, either standard or bilinear incidence of infection is resulted. We establish global stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium for DI models of SIR (susceptible/infected/removed) type with bilinear incidence and standard incidence but no disease-induced death, respectively. We also obtain global stability of the two equilibria for a DI SIS (susceptible/infected/susceptible) model with population-density-dependent birth and death functions. For completeness, we extend the stability of the infection-free equilibrium for the standard DI SIR model previously proposed.