纵向数据边际模型非参数光滑方法的比较

对于纵向数据边际模型的均值函数, 有很多非参数估计方法, 其中回归样条, 光滑样条, 似乎不相关(SUR)核估计等方法在工作协方差阵正确指定时具有最小的渐近方差. 回归样条的渐近偏差与工作协方差阵无关, 而SUR核估计和光滑样条估计的渐近偏差却依赖于工作协方差阵. 本文主要研究了回归样条, 光滑样条和SUR核估计的效率问题. 通过模拟比较发现回归样条估计的表现比较稳定, 在大多数情况下比光滑样条估计和SUR核估计的效率高.     

Mean-of-order <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis> reduced-bias extreme value index estimation under a third-order framework

Reduced-bias versions of a very simple generalization of the ‘classical’ Hill estimator of a positive extreme value index (EVI) are put forward. The Hill estimator can be regarded as the logarithm of the mean-of-order-0 of a certain set of statistics. Instead of such a geometric mean, it is sensible to consider the mean-of-order-p (MOP) of those statistics, with p real. Under a third-order framework, the asymptotic behaviour of the MOP, optimal MOP and associated reduced-bias classes of EVI-estimators is derived. Information on the dominant non-null asymptotic bias is also provided so that we can deal with an asymptotic comparison at optimal levels of some of those classes. Large-scale Monte-Carlo simulation experiments are undertaken to provide finite sample comparisons.     

A Location Invariant Hill-Type Estimator

The Hill's estimator (Hill, 1975) has been largely used in extreme value theory in order to estimate the tail index associated to a distribution function with a positive index. One of the criticisms to its use is the possible associated bias, dependent on the top portion of the original sample used, and also the fact that it is not location invariant. Here, a new Hill-type estimator is studied, which is location invariant. This new estimator is based on the original Hill's estimator, but is made location invariant by a random shift. Its asymptotic distributional behavior is derived, in a semiparametric setup. A comparative simulation study is also presented for several models, following an appropriate adaptive procedure.     

Multivariate moment based extreme value index estimators

Modeling extreme events is of paramount importance in various areas of science—biostatistics, climatology, finance, geology, and telecommunications, to name a few. Most of these application areas involve multivariate data. Estimation of the extreme value index plays a crucial role in modeling rare events. There is an affine invariant multivariate generalization of the well known Hill estimator—the separating Hill estimator. However, the Hill estimator is only suitable for heavy tailed distributions. As in the case of the separating multivariate Hill estimator, we consider estimation of the extreme value index under the assumptions of multivariate ellipticity and independent identically distributed observations. We provide affine invariant multivariate generalizations of the moment estimator and the mixed moment estimator. These estimators are suitable for both light and heavy tailed distributions. Asymptotic properties of the new extreme value index estimators are derived under multivariate elliptical distribution with known location and scatter. The effect of replacing true location and scatter by estimates is examined in a thorough simulation study. We also consider two data examples: one financial application and one meteorological application.     

Estimating and Visualizing Conditional Densities

Abstract

We consider the kernel estimator of conditional density and derive its asymptotic bias, variance, and mean-square error. Optimal bandwidths (with respect to integrated mean-square error) are found and it is shown that the convergence rate of the density estimator is order n ^–2/3. We also note that the conditional mean function obtained from the estimator is equivalent to a kernel smoother. Given the undesirable bias properties of kernel smoothers, we seek a modified conditional density estimator that has mean equivalent to some other nonparametric regression smoother with better bias properties. It is also shown that our modified estimator has smaller mean square error than the standard estimator in some commonly occurring situations. Finally, three graphical methods for visualizing conditional density estimators are discussed and applied to a data set consisting of maximum daily temperatures in Melbourne, Australia.     

Asymptotic Analysis of the Jittering Kernel Density Estimator

Jittering estimators are nonparametric function estimators for mixed data. They extend arbitrary estimators from the continuous setting by adding random noise to discrete variables. We give an in-depth analysis of the jittering kernel density estimator, which reveals several appealing properties. The estimator is strongly consistent, asymptotically normal, and unbiased for discrete variables. It converges at minimax-optimal rates, which are established as a by-product of our analysis. To understand the effect of adding noise, we further study its asymptotic efficiency and finite sample bias in the univariate discrete case. Simulations show that the estimator is competitive on finite samples. The analysis suggests that similar properties can be expected for other jittering estimators.     

Improved estimation of regression parameters in measurement error models

The problem of simultaneous estimation of the regression parameters in a multiple regression model with measurement errors is considered when it is suspected that the regression parameter vector may be the null-vector with some degree of uncertainty. In this regard, we propose two sets of four estimators, namely, (i) the unrestricted estimator, (ii) the preliminary test estimator, (iii) the Stein-type estimator and (iv) the postive-rule Stein-type estimator. In an asymptotic setup, properties of these estimators are studied based on asymptotic distributional bias, MSE matrices, and risks under a quadratic loss function. In addition to the asymptotic dominance of the Stein-type estimators, the paper contains discussion of dominating confidence sets based on the Stein-type estimation. Asymptotic analysis is considered based on a sequence of local alternatives to obtain the desired results.     

Bias correction in extreme value statistics with index around zero

Applying extreme value statistics in meteorology and environmental science requires accurate estimators on extreme value indices that can be around zero. Without having prior knowledge on the sign of the extreme value indices, the probability weighted moment (PWM) estimator is a favorable candidate. As most other estimators on the extreme value index, the PWM estimator bears an asymptotic bias. In this paper, we develop a bias correction procedure for the PWM estimator. Moreover, we provide bias-corrected PWM estimators for high quantiles and, when the extreme value index is negative, the endpoint of a distribution. The choice of k, the number of high order statistics used for estimation, is crucial in applications. The asymptotically unbiased PWM estimators allows the choice of higher level k, which results in a lower asymptotic variance. Moreover, since the bias-corrected PWM estimators can be applied for a wider range of k compared to the original PWM estimator, one gets more flexibility in choosing k for finite sample applications. All advantages become apparent in simulations and an environmental application on estimating “once per 10,000 years” still water level at Hoek van Holland, The Netherlands.     

Ratio of Generalized Hill’s estimator and its asymptotic normality theory

We present a statistical process depending on a continuous time parameter τ whose each margin provides a Generalized Hill’s estimator. In this paper, the asymptotic normality of the finite-dimensional distributions of this family are completely characterized for τ > 1/2 when the underlying distribution function lies on the maximum domain of attraction. The ratio of two different margins of the statistical process characterizes entirely the whole domain of attraction. Its asymptotic normality is also studied. The results permit in general to build a new family of estimators for the extreme value index whose asymptotic properties can be easily derived. For example, we give a new estimate of the Weibull extreme value index and we study its consistency and its asymptotic normality.      

Boundary kernels for adaptive density estimators on regions with irregular boundaries

In some applications of kernel density estimation the data may have a highly non-uniform distribution and be confined to a compact region. Standard fixed bandwidth density estimates can struggle to cope with the spatially variable smoothing requirements, and will be subject to excessive bias at the boundary of the region. While adaptive kernel estimators can address the first of these issues, the study of boundary kernel methods has been restricted to the fixed bandwidth context. We propose a new linear boundary kernel which reduces the asymptotic order of the bias of an adaptive density estimator at the boundary, and is simple to implement even on an irregular boundary. The properties of this adaptive boundary kernel are examined theoretically. In particular, we demonstrate that the asymptotic performance of the density estimator is maintained when the adaptive bandwidth is defined in terms of a pilot estimate rather than the true underlying density. We examine the performance for finite sample sizes numerically through analysis of simulated and real data sets.     

左截断右删失数据分位差估计及其渐近性质

我们研究了左截断右删失数据分位差,基于左截断右删失数据乘积限构造了分位差的经验估计,同时克服经验估计的非光滑性,提出了分位数差的核光滑估计.利用经验过程理论推导出这两个估计的渐近偏差和渐近方差,并且在左截断右删失数据下研究了这两个分位差的大样本性质,获得分位差估计的相合性和渐近正态性.同时给出计算模拟以验证光滑分位差估计的表现,在均方损失的意义下模拟结果表明光滑估计比经验估计具有更好的性质.     

Alternatives to a Semi-Parametric Estimator of Parameters of Rare Events—The Jackknife Methodology*

In this paper, and in a context of regularly varying tails, we propose different alternatives to a well-known estimator of the tail index—the Hill estimator (Hill, 1975). These alternatives have essentially in mind a reduction in bias, preferably without increasing Mean Square Error, by the use of suitable Generalized Jackknife methodologies (Gray and Schucany, 1972). The first estimate obtained through this methodolgy is the one introduced by Peng (1998), under a different context. Other Generalized Jackknife estimators are linear combinations of Hill estimators at different levels. This methodology of affine combinations of Hill estimators at different levels may be easily generalized to other semi-parametric estimators of the tail index, like Pickands' estimator (Pickands, 1975) or the Moment's estimator (Dekkers et al., 1989), and consequently to a general real tail index, seeming to be a promising field of research.     

Multivariate Locally Weighted Polynomial Fitting and Partial Derivative Estimation

Nonparametric regression estimator based on locally weighted least squares fitting has been studied by Fan and Ruppert and Wand. The latter paper also studies, in the univariate case, nonparametric derivative estimators given by a locally weighted polynomial fitting. Compared with traditional kernel estimators, these estimators are often of simpler form and possess some better properties. In this paper, we develop current work on locally weighted regression and generalize locally weighted polynomial fitting to the estimation of partial derivatives in a multivariate regression context. Specifically, for both the regression and partial derivative estimators we prove joint asymptotic normality and derive explicit asymptotic expansions for their conditional bias and conditional convariance matrix (given observations of predictor variables) in each of the two important cases of local linear fit and local quadratic fit.     

Testing for small bias of tail index estimators

We determine the joint asymptotic normality of kernel and weighted least-squares estimators of the upper tail index of a regularly varying distribution when each estimator is a bivariate function of two parameters: the tuning parameter is motivated by possible underlying second-order behavior in regular variation, while no such behavior is assumed, and the fraction parameter determines that upper portion of the sample on which the estimator is based. Under the hypothesis that the scaled asymptotic biases of the estimators vanish uniformly in the parameter points considered, these results imply joint asymptotic normality for deviations of ratios of the estimators from 1, which in turn yield asymptotic chi-square tests for checking the small-bias hypothesis, equivalent to the constructibility of asymptotic confidence intervals. The test procedure suggests adaptive choices of the tuning and fraction parameters: data-driven (t)estimators.     

The Hill estimators under power normalization

By using the link between the affine and the power norming, eight Hill estimators under power normalization for the tail index (the non-zero extreme value index) are suggested. Moreover, more compact and adaptive four Hill estimators under power normalization are derived based on the generalized Pareto distributions under power normalization. Two classes of harmonic t-Hill estimators under power normalization are also suggested. A comprehensive simulation study using the R-package shows that all the suggested estimators under power normalization work well, but in all cases the Hill estimators under power normalization based on Pareto distributions under power normalization are better. The two models under linear and power normalization for extreme value analysis are applied with comparison on a real data set of two pollutants, Sulphur Dioxide and Particulate Matter.     

左截断相依数据下条件分位数的双核局部线性估计

本文在左截断相依数据下,利用局部线性估计的方法,先提出了条件分布函数的双核估计;然后利用该估计导出了条件分位数的双核局部线性估计,并建立了这些估计的渐近正态性结果;最后,通过模拟显示该估计在偏移和边界点调节上要比一般的核估计更好.     

Local Polynomial Regression: Optimal Kernels and Asymptotic Minimax Efficiency

We consider local polynomial fitting for estimating a regression function and its derivatives nonparametrically. This method possesses many nice features, among which automatic adaptation to the boundary and adaptation to various designs. A first contribution of this paper is the derivation of an optimal kernel for local polynomial regression, revealing that there is a universal optimal weighting scheme. Fan (1993, Ann. Statist., 21, 196-216) showed that the univariate local linear regression estimator is the best linear smoother, meaning that it attains the asymptotic linear minimax risk. Moreover, this smoother has high minimax risk. We show that this property also holds for the multivariate local linear regression estimator. In the univariate case we investigate minimax efficiency of local polynomial regression estimators, and find that the asymptotic minimax efficiency for commonly-used orders of fit is 100% among the class of all linear smoothers. Further, we quantify the loss in efficiency when going beyond this class.     

Higher order estimation at Lebesgue points

The symmetric derivative of a probability measure at a Lebesgue point can often be specified by an exact relation involving a regularity index. Knowledge of this index is of practical interest, for example to specify the local behavior of the measure under study and to evaluate bandwidths or number of neighbors to take into account in smoothing techniques. This index also determines local rates of convergence of estimators of particular points of curves and surfaces, like minima and maxima. In this paper, we consider the estimation of the d-dimensional regularity index. We introduce an estimator and derive the basic asymptotic results. Our estimator is inspired by an estimator proposed in Drees and Kaufmann (1998, Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 75, 149–172) in the context of extreme value statistics. Then, we show how (estimates of) the regularity index can be used to solve practical problems in nearest neighbor density estimation, such as removing bias or selecting the number of neighbors. Results of simulations are presented.     

Estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles under random censoring

In this paper, we consider the estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles in the presence of random right censoring. The generalization of the peaks over threshold method is discussed and an adaptation of the moment estimator is proposed. The corresponding extreme quantile estimators are also introduced. We make a start with the analysis of the asymptotic properties of the moment estimator and the corresponding extreme quantile estimator. The finite sample behaviour is illustrated with a small simulation study and through practical examples from survival data analysis.      

Local Asymptotic Normality in Extreme Value Index Estimation

This paper deals with the estimation of the extreme value index in local extreme value models. We establish local asymptotic normality (LAN) under certain extreme value alternatives. It turns out that the central sequence occurring in the LAN expansion of the likelihood process is up to a rescaling procedure the Hill estimator. The central sequence plays a crucial role for the construction of asymptotic optimal statistical procedures. In particular, the Hill estimator is asymptotically minimax.