Impact of optimal control on the treatment of HIV/AIDS and screening of unaware infectives

In this paper, we study the impact of optimal control on the treatment of HIV/AIDS and screening of unaware infectives on the transmission dynamics of the disease in a homogeneous population with constant immigration of susceptibles incorporating use of condom, screening of unaware infectives and treatment of the infected. Initially we consider constant controls and thereafter treat control measures as time dependent control parameters. In the constant controls case, we calculate the basic reproduction number and investigate the existence and stability of equilibria. The model is found to exhibit transcritical bifurcation. For the time dependent controls, we formulate the appropriate optimal control problem and investigate the necessary conditions for the disease control in order to determine the role of unaware infectives in the spread of HIV/AIDS. We observed that unawareness by infectives has a great cost impact on the community. We further investigate the impact of combinations of the strategies in the control of HIV/AIDS. Carrying out cost-effectiveness analysis, we found that the most cost-effective strategy is the combination of all the control strategies.     

Optimal control and sensitivity analysis of SIV→HIV dynamics with effects of infected immigrants in sub‐Saharan Africa

Regional migration has become an underlying factor in the spread of HIV transmission. In addition, immigrants with HIV status has contributed with high‐risk of sexually transmitted infection to its “destination” communities and promotes dissemination of HIV. Efforts to address HIV/AIDS among conflict‐affected populations should be properly addressed to eliminate potential role of the spread of the disease and risk of exposure to HIV. Motivated from this situation, HIV‐infected immigrants factor to HIV/SIV transmission link will be investigated in this research and examine its potential effect using optimal control method. Nonlinear deterministic mathematical model is used which is a multiple host model comprising of humans and chimpanzees. Some basic properties of the model such as invariant region and positivity of the solutions will be examined. The local stability of the disease‐free equilibrium was examined by computing the basic reproduction number, and it was found to be locally asymptotically stable when ?₀<1 and unstable otherwise. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the parameters that help most in the spread of the virus. Pontryagin's maximum principle is used to obtain the optimality conditions for controlling the disease spread. Numerical simulation was conducted to obtain the analytical results. The results shows that combination of public health awareness, treatment, and culling help in controlling the HIV disease spread.     

Bifurcation analysis of a multidelayed HIV model in presence of immune response and understanding of in‐host viral dynamics

In this paper, we proposed a multidelayed in‐host HIV model to represent the interaction between human immunodeficiency virus and immune response. One delay was considered to incorporate the time required by the virus for various intracellular events to make a host cell productively infective, and the second delay was introduced to take into account the time required for adaptive immune system to respond against infection. We extensively analyzed this multidelayed model analytically and numerically. We show that delay may have both destabilizing and stabilizing effects even when the system contains a single immune response delay. It happens when there exists two sequences of critical values of this delay. If the system starts with stable state in absence of delay, then the smallest value of these critical delays causes instability and the next higher value causes stability. The system may also show stability switching for different values of the virus replication factor. These results demonstrate the possible reasons of intrapatients and interpatients variability of CD4⁺ T cells and virus counts in HIV‐infected patients.     

Impacts of TV and radio advertisements on the dynamics of an infectious disease: A modeling study

TV and radio advertisements are widely acknowledged as important interventions in raising issues of public health care and play promising role to control the infection through propagating awareness among the individuals. In this paper, a nonlinear susceptible‐infected‐susceptible (SIS) model is proposed and analyzed to see the impacts of TV and radio advertisements on the spread of influenza epidemic. In the model formulation, it is assumed that the susceptible individuals contract infection through the direct contact with infected individuals. The information regarding the protection against the disease is propagated via TV and radio advertisements, and their growth rates are assumed to be proportional to the fraction of infected individuals. However, the growth rate of TV advertisements decreases with the increase in number of aware individuals. The information broadcasted through TV and radio advertisements induces behavioral changes among the susceptible individuals, and they form an isolated aware class. The epidemiological feasible equilibria, their stability properties, and direction of bifurcation are discussed. The expression for modified basic reproduction number is obtained. The model analysis shows that the dissemination rate of awareness among susceptible individuals due to TV and radio advertisements and baseline number of TV and radio advertisements have potential to reduce the epidemic peak and, thus, control the spread of infection. Further, the analytical findings are well supported through numerical simulation.     

A gray model for increasing sequences with nonhomogeneous index trends based on fractional‐order accumulation

By comparing the class ratio deviation and restoring error of first‐order accumulation with that of fractional‐order accumulation, a gray model for monotonically increasing sequences can obtain optimal simulation accuracy via selecting a proper cumulative order. In this study, a gray model for increasing sequences with nonhomogeneous index trends based on fractional‐order accumulation is proposed. To reduce the modeling error caused by the background value and to improve the prediction accuracy of the model, an optimized model using the 3/8 Simpson formula is constructed. Finally, the 2 proposed models are used to predict the total energy consumption in China and the monthly sales of new products in an enterprise. Compared with the GM(1,1) model based on fractional‐order accumulation, the proposed model exhibits better simulation and prediction accuracy.     

Chaos control and synchronization of fractional order delay‐varying computer virus propagation model

In the present article, the authors have studied the dynamical behavior of delay‐varying computer virus propagation (CVP) model with fractional order derivative, and it is found that the chaotic attractor exists in the considered fractional order system. In order to eliminate the chaotic behavior of fractional order delay‐varying CVP model, feedback controlmethod is used. This article also dealswith the synchronization between controlled and chaotic delay‐varying CVPmodel via active controlmethod. The fractional derivative is described in the Caputo sense. Numerical simulation results are carried out by means of Adams‐Boshforth‐Moultonmethod with the help ofMATLAB, and the results are successfully depicted through graphs .Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling the spread of Rubella disease using the concept of with local derivative with fractional parameter

Our aim in this work was to examine the model underpinning the spread of the Rubella virus using the novel derivative called beta‐derivative. The study of the equilibrium points together with the analysis of the disease free equilibrium points was presented. Due to the complexity of the modified equation, we introduced a new operator based on the Sumudu transform. The properties of this operator were proposed and proved in detail. We made used of this operator together with the idea of perturbation method to derive a special solution of the extended model. The stability of the method for solving this model was presented. The uniqueness of the special solution was presented, and numerical simulations were done. The graphical representations show that the model depends on both parameters and the fractional order. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 442–451, 2016     

Analytical and approximate solutions of fractional‐order susceptible‐infected‐recovered epidemic model of childhood disease

In this work, we make use of the conformable fractional differential transform method (CFDTM) in order to compute an approximate solution of the fractional‐order susceptible‐infected‐recovered (SIR) epidemic model of childhood disease. The method provides the solution in the form of a rapidly convergent series. Two explanatory and illustrative examples are given to represent the efficacy of the obtained results.     

Synchronization of fractional‐order chaotic systems with disturbances via novel fractional‐integer integral sliding mode control and application to neuron models

In this paper, a novel fractional‐integer integral type sliding mode technique for control and generalized function projective synchronization of different fractional‐order chaotic systems with different dimensions in the presence of disturbances is presented. When the upper bounds of the disturbances are known, a sliding mode control rule is proposed to insure the existence of the sliding motion in finite time. Furthermore, an adaptive sliding mode control is designed when the upper bounds of the disturbances are unknown. The stability analysis of sliding mode surface is given using the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, the results performed for synchronization of three‐dimensional fractional‐order chaotic Hindmarsh‐Rose (HR) neuron model and two‐dimensional fractional‐order chaotic FitzHugh‐Nagumo (FHN) neuron model.     

A nonlinear HIV/AIDS model with contact tracing

A nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the effect of contact tracing on reducing the spread of HIV/AIDS in a homogeneous population with constant immigration of susceptibles. In modeling the dynamics, the population is divided into four subclasses of HIV negatives but susceptibles, HIV positives or infectives that do not know they are infected, HIV positives that know they are infected and that of AIDS patients. Susceptibles are assumed to become infected via sexual contacts with (both types of) infectives and all infectives move with constant rates to develop AIDS. The model is analyzed using the stability theory of differential equations and numerical simulation. The model analysis shows that contact tracing may be of immense help in reducing the spread of AIDS epidemic in a population. It is also found that the endemicity of infection is reduced when infectives after becoming aware of their infection do not take part in sexual interaction.     

Global properties of a class of HIV infection models with Beddington–DeAngelis functional response

In this paper, the global properties of a class of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) models with Beddington–DeAngelis functional response are investigated. Lyapunov functions are constructed to establish the global asymptotic stability of the uninfected and infected steady states of three HIV infection models. The first model considers the interaction process of the HIV and the CD4 ⁺ T cells and takes into account the latently and actively infected cells. The second model describes two co‐circulation populations of target cells, representing CD4 ⁺ T cells and macrophages. The third model is a two‐target‐cell model taking into account the latently and actively infected cells. We have proven that if the basic reproduction number R₀ is less than unity, then the uninfected steady state is globally asymptotically stable, and if R₀ > 1, then the infected steady state is globally asymptotically stable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Existence of solution for a fractional‐order Lotka‐Volterra reaction‐diffusion model with Mittag‐Leffler kernel

In the literature, many researchers have studied Lotka‐Volterra (L‐V) models for different types of studies. In order to continue the study, we consider a fractional‐order L‐V model involving three different species in the Atangana‐Baleanu‐Caputo (ABC) sense of fractional derivative. This new model has potentials for a large number of research‐oriented studies. The first point that arises is whether the new model has a solution or not. Therefore, to answer this question, we consider the existence and uniqueness (EU) of the solutions and then Hyers‐Ulam (HU) stability for the proposed L‐V model.     

A fractional order HIV-TB coinfection model with nonsingular Mittag-Leffler Law

The biological models for the study of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and its advanced stage acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) have been widely studied in last two decades. HIV virus can be transmitted by different means including blood, semen, preseminal fluid, rectal fluid, breast milk, and many more. Therefore, initiating HIV treatment with the TB treatment development has some advantages including less HIV-related losses and an inferior risk of HIV spread also having difficulties including incidence of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) because of a large pill encumbrance. It has been analyzed that patients with HIV have more weaker immune system and are susceptible to infections, for example, tuberculosis (TB). Keeping the importance of the HIV models, we are interested to consider an analysis of HIV-TB coinfected model in the Atangana-Baleanu fractional differential form. The model is studied for the existence, uniqueness of solution, Hyers-Ulam (HU) stability and numerical simulations with assumption of specific parameters.     

Dynamical behaviors of a discrete HIV‐1 virus model with bilinear infective rate

We establish a discrete virus dynamic model by discretizing a continuous HIV‐1 virus model with bilinear infective rate using ‘hybrid’ Euler method. We discuss not only the existence and global stability of the uninfected equilibrium but also the existence and local stability of the infected equilibrium. We prove that there exists a crucial value similar to that of the continuous HIV‐1 virus dynamics, which is called the basic reproductive ratio of the virus. If the basic reproductive ratio of the virus is less than one, the uninfected equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If the basic reproductive ratio of the virus is larger than one, the infected equilibrium exists and is locally stable. Moreover, we consider the permanence for such a system by constructing a Lyapunov function v_n. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Projective synchronization between different fractional‐order hyperchaotic systems with uncertain parameters using proposed modified adaptive projective synchronization technique

In the present article, the authors have proposed a modified projective adaptive synchronization technique for fractional‐order chaotic systems. The adaptive projective synchronization controller and identification parameters law are developed on the basis of Lyapunov direct stability theory. The proposed method is successfully applied for the projective synchronization between fractional‐order hyperchaotic Lü system as drive system and fractional‐order hyperchaotic Lorenz chaotic system as response system. A comparison between the effects on synchronization time due to the presence of fractional‐order time derivatives for modified projective synchronization method and proposed modified adaptive projective synchronization technique is the key feature of the present article. Numerical simulation results, which are carried out using Adams–Boshforth–Moulton method show that the proposed technique is effective, convenient and also faster for projective synchronization of fractional‐order nonlinear dynamical systems. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probability of a major infection in a stochastic within-host model with multiple stages

Establishment or spread of a viral infection within healthy individuals depends on exposure to a viral source, either through virus particles or through cells that have been infected. We assume that a potential infection has reached the site of the healthy target cells and we apply stochastic within-host models and multitype branching processes to investigate whether a major infection becomes established. The model includes multiple latent and actively infected stages. It is shown that the probability of a major infection is generally more likely after the virus has entered the target cell and the cell is actively infected. In some cases, the probability of a major infection is less likely if the burst size of actively infected cells is small.     

A probabilistic model to describe the spread of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus by intravenous drug use

In contrast to the majority of mathematical investigations into the dynamics of the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which have been concerned with sexual transmission, this investigation deals with its spread by intravenus drug use (IVDU). An ‘addict based’ approach is presented in which the proportion of the susceptible population to be infected is determined by Monte Carlo means. This is in contrast to a 1989 ‘shooting gallery’ approach by Kaplan.     

A nonlinear AIDS epidemic model with screening and time delay

A nonlinear mathematical model to study the effect of time delay in the recruitment of infected persons on the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS is proposed and analyzed. In modeling the dynamics, the population is divided into four subclasses: the susceptibles, the HIV positives or infectives that do not know they are infected, the HIV positives that know they are infected and the AIDS patients. Susceptibles are assumed to become infected via sexual contacts with (both types of) infectives. The model is analyzed using stability theory of delay differential equations. Both the disease-free and the endemic equilibria are found and their stability is investigated. It is shown that the introduction of time delay in the model has a destabilizing effect on the system and periodic solutions can arise by Hopf bifurcation. Numerical simulations are also carried out to investigate the influence of key parameters on the spread of the disease, to support the analytical conclusion and to illustrate possible behavioral scenario of the model.     

Effects of awareness program for controlling mosaic disease in Jatropha curcas plantations

The shrinkage of fossil fuel resources motivates many countries to search alternative energy sources. Jatropha curcas is a small drought‐resistant shrub from whose seeds a high grade fuel biodiesel can be produced. It is cultivated in many tropical countries including India. However, the plant is affected by the mosaic virus (Begomovirus) through infected white‐flies (Bemisia tabaci) which causes mosaic disease. Disease control is an important factor to obtain healthy crop but in agricultural practice, farming awareness is equally important. Here, we propose a mathematical model for media campaigns for raising awareness among people to protect this plant in small plots and control disease. In order to archive high crop yield, we consider the awareness campaign to be arranged in impulsive way to make people aware from infected white‐flies to protect Jatropha plants from mosaic virus. The study reveals that the spread of mosaic disease can be contained or even eradicated by the awareness campaigns. To attain an effective eradication, awareness campaign should be implemented at sufficiently short time intervals. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.