On generalized shock models for deteriorating systems

Standard assumptions in shock models are that failures of items are related either to the cumulative effect of shocks (cumulative models) or that they are caused by shocks that exceed a certain critical level (extreme shocks models). In this paper, we present useful generalizations of this setting to the case when an item is deteriorating itself, for example, when the boundary for the fatal shock magnitude is decreasing with time. Three stochastic failure models describing different impacts of shocks on items are considered. The cumulative effect of shocks is modeled in a way similar to the proportional hazards model. Explicit formulas for the corresponding survival functions are derived and several simple examples are considered. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preventive maintenance for homogeneous and heterogeneous systems

We consider optimal preventive maintenance for homogeneous and heterogeneous systems with major (critical) and minor (noncritical) failures. A major failure results in a replacement of a failed system, whereas minor failures can be minimally instantaneously repaired. Distinct from the homogeneous case, where the process of minimal repairs is the Poisson process, the process of minimal repairs in the heterogeneous case is the mixed Poisson process that does not possess the memoryless property. This enables considering the number of minimal repairs as the decision parameter for the corresponding optimal preventive maintenance policy. The proposed approach is theoretically justified, and the detailed illustrative numerical examples are presented.     

A bivariate mixed policy for a simple repairable system based on preventive repair and failure repair

In this paper, a simple repairable system (i.e. a one-component repairable system with one repairman) with preventive repair and failure repair is studied. Assume that the preventive repair is adopted before the system fails, when the system reliability drops to an undetermined constant R  , the work will be interrupted and the preventive repair is executed at once. And assume that the preventive repair of the system is “as good as new” while the failure repair of the system is not, and the deterioration of the system is stochastic. Under these assumptions, by using geometric process, we present a bivariate mixed policy (R,N)$(R\text{,}N)$, respectively based on a scale of the system reliability and the failure-number of the system. Our aim is to determine an optimal mixed policy (R,N)^∗$(R\text{,}N{)}^{\ast }$ such that the long-run average cost per unit time (i.e. the average cost rate) is minimized. The explicit expression of the average cost rate is derived, and the corresponding optimal mixed policy can be determined analytically or numerically. Finally, a numerical example is given where the working time of the system yields a Weibull distribution. Some comparisons with a certain existing policy are also discussed by numerical methods.     

A class of two-sex branching processes with reproduction phase in a random environment

We model the demographic dynamics of populations with sexual reproduction where the reproduction phase occurs in a non-predictable environment and we assume the immigration/out-migration of mating units in the population. We introduce a general class of two-sex branching processes where, in each generation, the number of mating units which take part in the reproduction phase is randomly determined and the offspring probability distribution changes over time in a random environment. We provide several probabilistic results about the limit behaviour of populations whose dynamics is modelled by such a class of stochastic processes. In particular, we provide sufficient conditions for the almost sure extinction of the population or for its survival with a positive probability. As illustration, we include some simulated examples.     

Random walks in a strongly sparse random environment

The integer points (sites) of the real line are marked by the positions of a standard random walk with positive integer jumps. We say that the set of marked sites is weakly, moderately or strongly sparse depending on whether the jumps of the random walk are supported by a bounded set, have finite or infinite mean, respectively. Focussing on the case of strong sparsity and assuming additionally that the distribution tail of the jumps is regularly varying at infinity we consider a nearest neighbor random walk on the set of integers having jumps $\pm 1$ with probability $1∕2$ at every nonmarked site, whereas a random drift is imposed at every marked site. We prove new distributional limit theorems for the so defined random walk in a strongly sparse random environment, thereby complementing results obtained recently in Buraczewski et al. (2019) for the case of moderate sparsity and in Matzavinos et al. (2016) for the case of weak sparsity. While the random walk in a strongly sparse random environment exhibits either the diffusive scaling inherent to a simple symmetric random walk or a wide range of subdiffusive scalings, the corresponding limit distributions are non-stable.     

Stochastic modeling of quality of systems operating in a heterogeneous environment

We consider systems that are subject to an external mixed Poisson shock process. Each shock can result in a failure of a system with a given probability and is survived with the complementary probability. Each shock additionally decreases the quality function that describes the performance of a system, thus forming the corresponding stochastic process. Expectations (unconditional and conditional on survival) and relevant variability characteristics for the stochastic quality function are derived. Some monotonicity properties of the conditional quality function are investigated and the future values of this function are derived.     

一类随机环境下随机游动的常返性

就一类平稳环境θ下随机流动{Xn}n∈z 建立相应的Markov-双链{ηn}n∈z ={(xn,Tnθ)}n∈z ,并给出在该平稳环境θ下{xn}n∈z 为常返链的条件.     

Weighted moments for a supercritical branching process in a varying or random environment

Let W be the limit of the normalized population size of a supercritical branching process in a varying or random environment. By an elementary method, we find sufficient conditions under which W has finite weighted moments of the form EWpl(W), where p > 1, l 0 is a concave or slowly varying function.     

Limit theorems for random transformations and processes in random environments

I derive general relativized central limit theorems and laws of iterated logarithm for random transformations both via certain mixing assumptions and via the martingale differences approach. The results are applied to Markov chains in random environments, random subshifts of finite type, and random expanding in average transformations where I show that the conditions of the general theorems are satisfied and so the corresponding (fiberwise) central limit theorems and laws of iterated logarithm hold true in these cases. I consider also a continuous time version of such limit theorems for random suspensions which are continuous time random dynamical systems.

     

A martingale approach to directed polymers in a random environment

The diffusive behavior for a system of directed polymers in a random environment was first rigorously discussed by Imbrie and Spencer, and then by Bolthausen. By means of some basic properties of martingales we extend some results due to Imbrie and Spencer concerning the asymptotic behaviour of the mean square displacement. We also obtain a Wiener process behaviour with probability one for this system. Bolthausen already used some martingale limit theorems to prove a central limit theorem for this system.Partly supported by AvH Foundation.     

Scaling limit theorem for transient random walk in random environment

We construct a sequence of transient random walks in random environments and prove that by proper scaling, it converges to a diffusion process with drifted Brownian potential. To this end, we prove a counterpart of convergence for transient random walk in non-random environment, which is interesting itself.     

随机环境中带移民的上临界分枝过程的Berry-Esseen界

考虑独立同分布的随机环境中带移民的上临界分枝过程(Zn).应用(Zn)与随机环境中不带移民分枝过程的联系,以及与相应随机游动的联系,在一些适当的矩条件下,本文证明关于log Zn的中心极限定理的Berry-Esseen界.     

Large deviations for hitting times of a random walk in random environment on a strip

We consider a random walk in random environment on a strip, which is transient to the right. The random environment is stationary and ergodic. By the constructed enlarged random environment which was first introduced by Goldsheid （2008）, we obtain the large deviations conditioned on the environment （in the quenched case） for the hitting times of the random walk.     

Central limit theorems for a branching random walk with a random environment in time

We consider a branching random walk with a random environment in time, in which the offspring distribution of a particle of generation n and the distribution of the displacements of its children depend on an environment indexed by the time n. The environment is supposed to be independent and identically distributed. For A ?, let Z_n(A) be the number of particles of generation n located in A. We show central limit theorems for the counting measure Z_n(·) with appropriate normalization.     

A minimal repair replacement model with two types of failure and a safety constraint

Consider a system subject to two types of failures. If the failure is of type 1, the system is minimally repaired, and a cost C₁ is incurred. If the failure is of type 2, the system is minimally repaired with probability p and replaced with probability 1−p  . The associated costs are _C2,_m$C_{2\text{,}m}$ and _C2,_r$C_{2\text{,}r}$, respectively. Failures of type 2 are safety critical and to control the risk, management has specified a requirement that the probability of at least one such failure occurring in the interval [0, A] should not exceed a fixed probability limit ω. The problem is to determine an optimal planned replacement time T, minimizing the expected discounted costs under the safety constraint. A cost C_r is incurred whenever a planned replacement is performed. Conditions are established for when the safety constraint affects the optimal replacement time and causes increased costs.     

A bivariate optimal replacement policy for a system subject to a generalized failure and repair process

Traditionally, in the studies of the optimal maintenance policies for repairable systems, the nonhomogeneous Poisson process model, which corresponds to the minimal repair process, has been intensively applied. However, in many practical situations, the repair type is not necessarily minimal. In this article, a new repair process based on a new counting process model (so‐called the generalized Polya process) is introduced. Then, the issue of the optimal replacement problem is discussed. A bivariate preventive replacement policy is developed and the properties of the optimal policy are studied. Illustrative examples are also presented. In addition, a comparison with a conventional replacement policy is performed.     

The construction of markov processes in random environments and the equivalence theorems

In sec.1, we introduce several basic concepts such as random transition function, p-m process and Markov process in random environment and give some examples to construct a random transition function from a non-homogeneous density function. In sec. 2, we construct the Markov process in random enviromment and skew product Markov process by p -m process and investigate the properties of Markov process in random environment and the original process and environment process and skew product process. In sec. 3, we give several equivalence theorems on Markov process in random environment.     

An extended stochastic failure model for a system subject to random shocks

In this article, a stochastic failure model for a system subject to a random shock process is studied. It is assumed that a fatal shock results in an immediate system failure, whereas a non-fatal shock may increase the susceptibility of the system to failure. The lifetime distribution of the system and its failure rate function are derived, and the effect of environmental factors on the failure process of the system is also investigated. Lifetimes of systems operated under different environmental conditions are stochastically compared.