Model selection of a switching mechanism for financial time series

The threshold autoregressive model with generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) specification is a popular nonlinear model that captures the well‐known asymmetric phenomena in financial market data. The switching mechanisms of hysteretic autoregressive GARCH models are different from threshold autoregressive model with GARCH as regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. This paper conducts a Bayesian model comparison among competing models by designing an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme. We illustrate the performance of three kinds of criteria by comparing models with fat‐tailed and/or skewed errors: deviance information criteria, Bayesian predictive information, and an asymptotic version of Bayesian predictive information. A simulation study highlights the properties of the three Bayesian criteria and the accuracy as well as their favorable performance as model selection tools. We demonstrate the proposed method in an empirical study of 12 international stock markets, providing evidence to strongly support for both models with skew fat‐tailed innovations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian modeling and forecasting of Value‐at‐Risk via threshold realized volatility

This study proposes a threshold realized generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model that jointly models daily returns and realized volatility, thereby taking into account the bias and asymmetry of realized volatility. We incorporate this threshold realized GARCH model with skew Student‐t innovations as the observation equation, view this model as a sharp transition model, and treat the realized volatility as a proxy for volatility under this nonlinear structure. Through the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the model can jointly estimate the parameters in the return equation, the volatility equation, and the measurement equation. As an illustration, we conduct a simulation study and apply the proposed method to the US and Japan stock markets. Based on quantile forecasting and volatility estimation, we find that the threshold heteroskedastic framework with realized volatility successfully models the asymmetric dynamic structure. We also investigate the predictive ability of volatility by comparing the proposed model with the traditional GARCH model as well as some popular asymmetric GARCH and realized GARCH models. This threshold realized GARCH model with skew Student‐t innovations outperforms the competing risk models in out‐of‐sample volatility and Value‐at‐Risk forecasting.     

A Combinatorial Approach to Piecewise Linear Time Series Analysis

Over recent years, several nonlinear time series models have been proposed in the literature. One model that has found a large number of successful applications is the threshold autoregressive model (TAR). The TAR model is a piecewise linear process whose central idea is to change the parameters of a linear autoregressive model according to the value of an observable variable, called the threshold variable. If this variable is a lagged value of the time series, the model is called a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model. In this article, we propose a heuristic to estimate a more general SETAR model, where the thresholds are multivariate. We formulate the task of finding multivariate thresholds as a combinatorial optimization problem. We develop an algorithm based on a greedy randomized adaptive search procedure (GRASP) to solve the problem. GRASP is an iterative randomized sampling technique that has been shown to quickly produce good quality solutions for a wide variety of optimization problems. The proposed model performs well on both simulated and real data.     

Volatility forecasting using stochastic conditional range model with leverage effect

In this paper, we propose a stochastic conditional range model with leverage effect (henceforth SCRL) for volatility forecasting. A maximum likelihood method based on the particle filters is developed to estimate the parameters of the SCRL model. Simulation results show that the proposed methodology performs well. We apply the proposed model and methodology to four stock market indices, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index of China, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong, the Nikkei 225 Index of Japan, and the S&P 500 Index of US. Empirical results highlight the value of incorporating leverage effect into range modeling and forecasting. In particular, the results show that our SCRL model outperforms the conditional autoregressive range model, the conditional autoregressive range model with leverage effect, and the stochastic conditional range model in both in‐sample fit and out‐of‐sample forecast.     

Spectral collocation methods for nonlinear weakly singular Volterra integro‐differential equations

In this paper, a spectral collocation approximation is proposed for neutral and nonlinear weakly singular Volterra integro‐differential equations (VIDEs) with non‐smooth solutions. We use some suitable variable transformations to change the original equation into a new equation, so that the solution of the resulting equation possesses better regularity, and the the Jacobi orthogonal polynomial theory can be applied conveniently. Under reasonable assumptions on the nonlinearity, we carry out a rigorous error analysis in L^∞ norm and weighted L² norm. To perform the numerical simulations, some test examples (linear and nonlinear) are considered with nonsmooth solutions, and numerical results are presented. Further more, the comparative study of the proposed methods with some existing numerical methods is provided.     

Clustering via finite nonparametric ICA mixture models

We propose a novel extension of nonparametric multivariate finite mixture models by dropping the standard conditional independence assumption and incorporating the independent component analysis (ICA) structure instead. This innovation extends nonparametric mixture model estimation methods to situations in which conditional independence, a necessary assumption for the unique identifiability of the parameters in such models, is clearly violated. We formulate an objective function in terms of penalized smoothed Kullback–Leibler distance and introduce the nonlinear smoothed majorization-minimization independent component analysis algorithm for optimizing this function and estimating the model parameters. Our algorithm does not require any labeled observations a priori; it may be used for fully unsupervised clustering problems in a multivariate setting. We have implemented a practical version of this algorithm, which utilizes the FastICA algorithm, in the R package icamix. We illustrate this new methodology using several applications in unsupervised learning and image processing.

     

Tail dependence of random variables from ARCH and heavy-tailed bilinear models

Discussed in this paper is the dependent structure in the tails of distributions of random variables from some heavy-tailed stationary nonlinear time series. One class of models discussed is the first-order autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) process introduced by Engle (1982). The other class is the simple first-order bilinear models driven by heavy-tailed innovations. We give some explicit formulas for the asymptotic values of conditional probabilities used for measuring the tail dependence between two random variables from these models. Our results have significant meanings in finance.     

The long‐term extreme price risk measure of portfolio in inventory financing: An application to dynamic impawn rate interval

Different from the short‐term risk measure for traditional financial assets (stocks, bonds, etc.), the key to illiquid inventory portfolio traded in the over‐the‐counter markets is to estimate the long‐term extreme price risk with time varying volatility. In this article, a new long‐term extreme price risk (value at risk and conditional value at risk) measure method for inventory portfolio and an application to dynamic impawn rate interval are proposed. To realize this, we first establish AutoRegressive Moving Average‐Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity‐Extreme Value Theory model and multivariatet‐Copula to depict the autocorrelation, fat tails, and volatility clustering of returns of inventories and the nonlinear dependence structure of inventories. Furthermore, we obtain the long‐term extreme price risk with time varying volatility via Monte Carlo simulation instead of square‐root‐of time rule. The results show that, first, benefits from risk diversification is significant; second, long‐term extreme price risk measure of inventory portfolio via Monte Carlo method outperforms the square‐root‐of time rule; the last is that the dynamic rate interval based on the long‐term price risk is superior to the crude rules of thumb in terms of reducing efficiency loss and improving risk coverage. In summary, this article provides a new quantitative framework for managing the risk of portfolio in inventory financing practice for banks constrained by risk limitation. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 20: 17–34, 2015     

High-Dimensional Multivariate Time Series With Additional Structure

High-dimensional multivariate time series are challenging due to the dependent and high-dimensional nature of the data, but in many applications there is additional structure that can be exploited to reduce computing time along with statistical error. We consider high-dimensional vector autoregressive processes with spatial structure, a simple and common form of additional structure. We propose novel high-dimensional methods that take advantage of such structure without making model assumptions about how distance affects dependence. We provide nonasymptotic bounds on the statistical error of parameter estimators in high-dimensional settings and show that the proposed approach reduces the statistical error. An application to air pollution in the USA demonstrates that the estimation approach reduces both computing time and prediction error and gives rise to results that are meaningful from a scientific point of view, in contrast to high-dimensional methods that ignore spatial structure. In practice, these high-dimensional methods can be used to decompose high-dimensional multivariate time series into lower-dimensional multivariate time series that can be studied by other methods in more depth. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

A new class of multivariate counting processes and its characterization

In this paper, we suggest a new class of multivariate counting processes which generalizes and extends the multivariate generalized Polya process recently studied in Cha and Giorgio [On a class of multivariate counting processes, Adv. Appl. Probab. 48 (2016), pp. 443–462]. Initially, we define this multivariate counting process by means of mixing. For further characterization of it, we suggest an alternative definition, which facilitates convenient characterization of the proposed process. We also discuss the dependence structure of the proposed multivariate counting process and other stochastic properties such as the joint distributions of the number of events in an arbitrary interval or disjoint intervals and the conditional joint distribution of the arrival times of different types of events given the number of events. The corresponding marginal processes are also characterized.     

Bayesian tail‐risk forecasting using realized GARCH

A realized generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model is developed within a Bayesian framework for the purpose of forecasting value at risk and conditional value at risk. Student‐t and skewed‐t return distributions are combined with Gaussian and student‐t distributions in the measurement equation to forecast tail risk in eight international equity index markets over a 4‐year period. Three realized measures are considered within this framework. A Bayesian estimator is developed that compares favourably, in simulations, with maximum likelihood, both in estimation and forecasting. The realized GARCH models show a marked improvement compared with ordinary GARCH for both value‐at‐risk and conditional value‐at‐risk forecasting. This improvement is consistent across a variety of data and choice of distributions. Realized GARCH models incorporating a skewed student‐t distribution for returns are favoured overall, with the choice of measurement equation error distribution and realized measure being of lesser importance. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating Functions for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This paper discusses the problem of estimation for two classes of nonlinear models, namely random coefficient autoregressive (RCA) and autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models. For the RCA model, first assuming that the nuisance parameters are known we construct an estimator for parameters of interest based on Godambe's asymptotically optimal estimating function. Then, using the conditional least squares (CLS) estimator given by Tjøstheim (1986, Stochastic Process. Appl., 21, 251–273) and classical moment estimators for the nuisance parameters, we propose an estimated version of this estimator. These results are extended to the case of vector parameter. Next, we turn to discuss the problem of estimating the ARCH model with unknown parameter vector. We construct an estimator for parameters of interest based on Godambe's optimal estimator allowing that a part of the estimator depends on unknown parameters. Then, substituting the CLS estimators for the unknown parameters, the estimated version is proposed. Comparisons between the CLS and estimated optimal estimator of the RCA model and between the CLS and estimated version of the ARCH model are given via simulation studies.     

Sparse Vector Autoregressive Modeling

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of the AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in noisy estimates, unstable predictions, and difficult-to-interpret temporal dependence. To overcome such drawbacks, we propose a two-stage approach for fitting sparse VAR (sVAR) models in which many of the AR coefficients are zero. The first stage selects nonzero AR coefficients based on an estimate of the partial spectral coherence (PSC) together with the use of BIC. The PSC is useful for quantifying the conditional relationship between marginal series in a multivariate process. A refinement second stage is then applied to further reduce the number of parameters. The performance of this two-stage approach is illustrated with simulation and real data examples. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Graphical modelling of multivariate time series

We introduce graphical time series models for the analysis of dynamic relationships among variables in multivariate time series. The modelling approach is based on the notion of strong Granger causality and can be applied to time series with non-linear dependences. The models are derived from ordinary time series models by imposing constraints that are encoded by mixed graphs. In these graphs each component series is represented by a single vertex and directed edges indicate possible Granger-causal relationships between variables while undirected edges are used to map the contemporaneous dependence structure. We introduce various notions of Granger-causal Markov properties and discuss the relationships among them and to other Markov properties that can be applied in this context. Examples for graphical time series models include nonlinear autoregressive models and multivariate ARCH models.     

A semiparametric method for estimating nonlinear autoregressive model with dependent errors

The first-order nonlinear autoregressive model is considered and a semiparametric method is proposed to estimate regression function. In the presented model, dependent errors are defined as first-order autoregressive AR(1). The conditional least squares method is used for parametric estimation and the nonparametric kernel approach is applied to estimate regression adjustment. In this case, some asymptotic behaviors and simulated results for the semiparametric method are presented. Furthermore, the method is applied for the financial data in Iran’s Tejarat-Bank.     

Some closed form robust moment‐based estimators for the MEM(1,1)

In this paper, we extend the closed form moment estimator (ordinary MCFE) for the autoregressive conditional duration model given by Lu et al (2016) and propose some closed form robust moment‐based estimators for the multiplicative error model to deal with the additive and innovational outliers. The robustification of the closed form estimator is done by replacing the sample mean and sample autocorrelation with some robust estimators. These estimators are more robust than the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) often used to estimate this model, and they are easy to implement and do not require the use of any numerical optimization procedure and the choice of initial value. The performance of our proposal in estimating the parameters and forecasting conditional mean μ_t of the MEM(1,1) process is compared with the proposals existing in the literature via Monte Carlo experiments, and the results of these experiments show that our proposal outperforms the ordinary MCFE, QMLE, and least absolute deviation estimator in the presence of outliers in general. Finally, we fit the price durations of IBM stock with the robust closed form estimators and the benchmarks and analyze their performances in estimating model parameters and forecasting the irregularly spaced intraday Value at Risk.     

Hybrid modeling approach for vehicle frame coupled with nonlinear dampers

The vehicle frame system comprises frame structure and nonlinear dampers. In order to investigate the effects of frame flexibility and nonlinear hysteresis, a hybrid modeling approach for vehicle frame coupled with nonlinear dampers will be proposed. Before that, a complex model for nonlinear damper is developed consisting of knowledge-based model and support vector machine (SVM) model. The frame structure is modeled by FEM where the SVM complex model of damper is embedded in. Thus a hybrid model for vehicle frame system is established and successfully validated via a dummy vehicle riding in different conditions. The results show that the hybrid model can capture the nonlinear dynamic characteristics accurately. The hybrid model can also provide a basis for structural design with the existing of FEM model.     

NHPP models for categorized software defects

We develop NHPP models to characterize categorized event data, with application to modelling the discovery process for categorized software defects. Conditioning on the total number of defects, multivariate models are proposed for modelling the defects by type. A latent vector autoregressive structure is used to characterize dependencies among the different types. We show how Bayesian inference can be achieved via MCMC procedures, with a posterior prediction‐based L‐measure used for model selection. The results are illustrated for defects of different types found during the System Test phase of a large operating system software development project. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global synchronization of fractional‐order and integer‐order N component reaction diffusion systems: Application to biochemical models

This study considers the problem of control and synchronization between fractional‐order and integer‐order, N‐components reaction‐diffusion systems with nonidentical coefficients and different nonlinear parts. The control scheme is designed using the Lyapunov direct method. The results are exemplified by two significant biochemical models, namely, the fractional‐order Lengyel‐Epstein model and the Gray‐Scott model. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, numerical simulations are performed in one and two space dimensions using Homotopy Analysis Method (HAM).     

Scenario tree generation approaches using K-means and LP moment matching methods

We consider in this paper the efficient ways to generate multi-stage scenario trees. A general modified K-means clustering method is first presented to generate the scenario tree with a general structure. This method takes the time dependency of the simulated path into account. Based on the traditional and modified K-means analyses, the moment matching of multi-stage scenario trees is described as a linear programming (LP) problem. By simultaneously utilizing simulation, clustering, non-linear time series and moment matching skills, a sequential generation method and another new hybrid approach which can generate the whole multi-stage tree right off are proposed. The advantages of these new methods are: the vector autoregressive and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (VAR-MGARCH) model is adopted to properly reflect the inter-stage dependency and the time-varying volatilities of the data process, the LP-based moment matching technique ensures that the scenario tree generation problem can be solved more efficiently and the tree scale can be further controlled, and in the meanwhile, the statistical properties of the random data process are maintained properly. What is more important, our new LP methods can guarantee at least two branches are derived from each non-leaf node and thus overcome the drawback in relevant papers. We carry out a series of numerical experiments and apply the scenario tree generation methods to a portfolio management problem, which demonstrate the practicality, efficiency and advantages of our new approaches over other models or methods.