Confidence bands in nonparametric regression with length biased data

In this paper we deduce a confidence bands construction for the nonparametric estimation of a regression curve from length biased data, where a result from Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973,The Annals of Statistics,1, 1071–1095) is adapted to this new situation. The construction also involves the estimation of the variance of the local linear estimator of the regression, where we use a finite sample modification in order to improve the performance of these confidence bands in the case of finite samples.     

基于函数型非参数方法的气温数据预测分析

基于函数型非参数核回归估计的方法分析安徽省1955年至2010年月度平均气温数据,建立函数型非参数回归模型,并对2010年气温数据进行实证研究.同时,与经典的非参数回归模型的预测结果相比,本文方法的预测均方误差明显优于经典的非参数回归方法,体现出函数型非参数模型的优越性.     

Asymptotic theory of nonparametric regression estimates with censored data

For regression analysis, some useful information may have been lost when the responses are right censored. To estimate nonparametric functions, several estimates based on censored data have been proposed and their consistency and convergence rates have been studied in literature, but the optimal rates of global convergence have not been obtained yet. Because of the possible information loss, one may think that it is impossible for an estimate based on censored data to achieve the optimal rates of global convergence for nonparametric regression, which were established by Stone based on complete data. This paper constructs a regression spline estimate of a general nonparametric regression function based on right_censored response data, and proves, under some regularity conditions, that this estimate achieves the optimal rates of global convergence for nonparametric regression. Since the parameters for the nonparametric regression estimate have to be chosen based on a data driven criterion, we also obtain the asymptotic optimality of AIC, AICC, GCV, Cp and FPE criteria in the process of selecting the parameters.     

基于删失数据的一般回归模型的参数估计

本文考虑基于删失数据的一般回归模型回归系数的方向估计,结合非参数回归和最小一乘方法构造了模型方向的估计,在较为一般的条件下证明了估计量的相合性．     

A generalized linear model with smoothing effects for claims reserving

In this paper, we continue the development of the ideas introduced in England and Verrall (2001) by suggesting the use of a reparameterized version of the generalized linear model (GLM) which is frequently used in stochastic claims reserving. This model enables us to smooth the origin, development and calendar year parameters in a similar way as is often done in practice, but still keep the GLM structure. Specifically, we use this model structure in order to obtain reserve estimates and to systemize the model selection procedure that arises in the smoothing process. Moreover, we provide a bootstrap procedure to achieve a full predictive distribution.     

变窗宽局部线性回归中的M估计

In this paper, by using the Brouwer fixed point theorem, we consider the existence and uniqueness of the solution for local linear regression with variable window breadth.     

Nonparametric estimation of compound distributions with applications in insurance

A nonparametric estimator of the distribution functionG of a random sum of independent identically distributed random variables, with distribution functionF, is proposed in the case where the distribution of the number of summands is known and a random sample fromF is available. This estimator is found by evaluating the functional that mapsF ontoG at the empirical distribution function based on the random sample. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimator in a suitable function space are established using appropriate continuity and differentiability results for the functional. Bootstrap confidence bands are also obtained. Applications to the aggregate claims distribution function and to the probability of ruin in the Poisson risk model are presented.     

非参数固定效应Panel Data模型的统计推断

本文主要讨论了非参数固定效应Panel data模型的估计与检验问题,首先我们利用Profile最小二乘方法得到了固定效应与非参数部分的估计;接着基于比较原假设与备择假设下模型拟合的残差平方和的思想针对固定效应的检验问题构造了检验统计量,并给出了计算检验p-值的F分布逼近法。     

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在φ混合的随机误差下,本文研究了固定设计及响应变量有缺失的非参数回归模型中回归函数的经验似然置信区间的构造.首先采用非参数回归填补法对缺失的数据进行填补,其次利用补足后得到的\"完全样本\"构造了非参数回归函数的经验似然比统计量,并证明了经验似然比统计量的极限分布为卡方分布,利用此结果可以构造非参数回归函数的经验似然置信区间.     

Testing strict monotonicity in nonparametric regression

A new test for strict monotonicity of the regression function is proposed which is based on a composition of an estimate of the inverse of the regression function with a common regression estimate. This composition is equal to the identity if and only if the “true” regression function is strictly monotone, and a test based on an L ²-distance is investigated. The asymptotic normality of the corresponding test statistic is established under the null hypothesis of strict monotonicity.      

Addendum to ‘The multi-year non-life insurance risk in the additive reserving model’ [Insurance Math. Econom. 52(3) (2013) 590–598]: Quantification of multi-year non-life insurance risk in chain ladder reserving models

This is the first study to derive closed-form analytical expressions for multi-year non-life insurance risk in the chain ladder model. Extending on previous research on the additive reserving model, we define multi-year risk via prediction errors of multi-year claims development results including both observed and future accident years. A resampling argument and a first-order Taylor approximation address the quantification of estimation errors and multiplicative dependencies in the chain ladder framework, respectively. From our generalized multi-year approach, we deduce estimators for reserve and premium risks in multi-year view and their implicit correlation. We reproduce well-known results from literature for the special cases of one-year and ultimo view. Further, we comment on how to obtain estimators for generalized versions of the chain ladder method. A case study demonstrates the applicability of our analytical formulae.