基于C~2R模型的广义链式网络DEA模型

传统网络DEA方法是将传统DEA方法评价过程中的"黑箱"打开,考虑输入到输出的中间环节,对生产过程中的各个环节分别评价。传统网络DEA方法获得的是相对于有效决策单元评价的结果,但有时可能要相对于非有效决策单元或者非决策单元进行评价,传统网络DEA方法无法解决该类问题。为此给出相对于非有效决策单元或者非决策单元进行评价的基于C~2R模型的广义链式网络DEA模型,并探讨相关性质.     

自行车阻滞干扰对机动车交通流延误改进模型

通过分析机非混合这一城市交通的主要特征,结合最小车头时距及不同车辆长度,对机非混行路段单个自行车对机动车的干扰分析模型进行改进,提出了一种新的数学模型;并对机动车道上出现自行车群的情况进行了研究,分别采用概率论及流体力学理论方法建立了相应的阻滞干扰模型,对评价路段服务水平、实施城市道路机非分离设计及提升道路交通通行能力等具有较为重要的意义.     

链式网络DEA模型

数据包络分析(DEA)是评价决策单元(DMU)相对有效性的一种工具,现已得到广泛的应用.传统的DEA不考虑系统内部结构,而是将系统作为一个"黑箱"来度量效率.针对多阶段网络结构提出一个新的网络DEA模型—链式网络DEA模型.研究网络决策单元的网络DEA有效性及各个阶段的弱DEA有效性之间的关系,给出了网络DEA有效的充分必要条件.若网络决策单元不是网络DEA有效的,根据模型可以指出系统在哪些阶段是无效的.     

考虑节点综合重要度的物流网络级联失效模型

为提高突发事件级联失效对物流网络破坏程度的评估的可信性,提出一个考虑物流网络边权特征的节点重要度的综合度量方法,并在此基础上构建相应的级联失效模型。数值仿真结果表明：该模型对于物流节点重要度的衡量更为完善,所制定的失效负载分流准则及其对于级联失效破坏性的评估结果更具合理性。通过该模型可更加全面地掌握了解网络结构对于级联失效破坏的抵御能力,为物流应急管理提供理论支持。     

面向可靠性的网络级联失效分析

本文从可靠性角度定义了影响级联失效过程的关键指标,探讨网络不同类型节点在失效传播过程中的作用及其对可靠性的影响。通过节点聚合描述不同节点的失效传递,以及节点失效时的网络拓扑结构变化特征,从而构建网络级联失效模型,然后确定网络的关键失效路径。最后通过案例分析,发现交通网络在经过聚合变化后稳定性更强,流通性也有提高,验证了该模型的有效性。     

关于综合 DEA 模型中的 DEA 有效决策单元集合的几个恒等式

DEA 模型(C~2R 模型,C~2GS~2模型,C~2W 模型和 C~2WH 模型等)是用来评价决策单元之间的相对有效性的.本文将给出关于具有更一般形式的综合 DEA 模型中的 DEA 有效决策单元集合的几个恒等式.这些等式表明在评价相对有效性时,可以将决策单元按照实际情况进行分组,先评价组内决策单元之间的相对有效性,再利用得到的信息进行不同组之间的有效决策单元的效率评价,如此等等.这种分组逐一进行评价的     

具有阶段最终产出的广义链式网络DEA模型

传统网络DEA方法通过打开生产过程中的"黑箱",考虑生产过程的中间环节,对生产过程进行相对效率评价.但是传统网络DEA方法只能相对于决策单元集而不能相对于非决策单元集进行相对效率评价.给出能够相对于任意参考集对决策单元进行相对效率评价的基于C2R模型的具有阶段最终产出的广义链式网络DEA方法,初步讨论相应性质并进行算例演示.     

基于路段消散指数的交通拥堵评价

路网交通拥堵状况评价,是交通流管理、调节和诱导的重要依据.本文基于电警、卡口交通监测数据建立自适应行程置信时间随机性模型,定义了路段消散指数用以描述路段拥堵情况,将卡口过车数据和浮动车数据、互联网数据相融合,根据历史数据,给出道路交通状态划分标准的阈值设置方法和基于浮动车数据描述道路畅通程度的指标,克服了只以浮动车车速定义交通拥堵指数的不足;最后,将运算结果与互联网导航平台数据的拥堵情况进行了比较.比较结果表明,基于路段消散指数的交通拥堵评价是一个有效的方法,可以应用在路网交通拥堵态势预测的研究中.     

竞争风险混合模型的参数估计与检验

本文在独立同分布I型区间删失情形下,研究了竞争风险混合模型中当参数真值是内点时,参数极大似然估计的性质,获得了其强相合性和渐近正态性.在较为宽松的条件下,给出了竞争风险混合模型参数序关系假设检验的检验方法,同时得到了似然比检验统计量及其在零假设下的渐近分布为加权x~2分布,并给出了—个例子并进行了功效比较.     

基于加速失效时间模型模拟生存时间应用于检测生存性状位点

对于考察预指定情形下的统计模型的性能、性质及适应性,模拟研究是非常重要的统计工具.作为生存分析中两个最受欢迎的模型之一,由于加速失效时间模型中的因变量是生存时间的对数,且此模型能够以线性形式回归带有易解释的参数的协变量,从而加速失效模型比COX比例风险模型更便于拟合生存数据.首先提出了关于带有广义F-分布的加速失效模型的模拟研究中生成生存时间的方法,然后给出了描述加速失效时间模型的误差分布和相应的生存时间之间的一般的关系式,并给出了广义F-分布是如何生成生存时间的.最后,为证实所建议模拟技术的性能和有效性,将此方法应用于检测生存性状位点的模型中.     

Network synthesis under survivability constraints

Telecommunication networks are subject to link and equipment failures. Since failures cannot be entirely avoided, networks have to be designed so as to survive failure situations. In this paper, we are interested in designing low cost survivable networks. Given point-to-point traffic demands and a cost/capacity function for each link, we aim at finding the minimum cost capacities satisfying the given demands and survivability requirements. A survivability model that reroutes interrupted traffic using all the available capacities on the network is presented and studied. In the proposed model, capacity and flow assignments for each network operating state are jointly optimized. We prove the -hardness of the optimisation problem defined by dual constraints. Then, we propose a polynomial relaxation along with a fast heuristic to compute a feasible solution of the problem from its relaxed optimal solution. Our solution approaches are tested on a set of problem instances.Received: September 2002, Revised: July 2003, AMS classification: 90C05     

A Model for Evaluation of Transport Policies in Multimodal Networks with Road and Parking Capacity Constraints

This paper presents a model for evaluation of transport policies in multimodal networks with road and parking capacity constraints. The proposed model simultaneously considers choices of travelers on route, parking location and mode between auto and transit. In the proposed model, it is assumed that auto drivers make a simultaneous route and parking location choice in a user equilibrium manner, and the modal split between auto and transit follows a multinomial logit formulation. A mathematical programming model with capacity constraints on road link and parking facilities is proposed that generates optimality conditions equivalent to the requirements for multimodal network equilibrium. An augmented Lagrangian dual algorithm embedded by partial linearization approach is developed to solve the proposed model. Numerical results on two example networks are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results show that the service level of transit, parking charges, road link and parking capacities, and addition of a new parking location may bring significant impacts on travelers’ behavior and network performance. In addition, transport policies may result in paradoxical phenomenon.     

An algorithm for network dimensioning under reliability considerations

In this paper we introduce a new methodology to adjust link capacities in circuit switched networks taking into account the costing policy and reliability considerations. This methodology, which is an extension of previous work on reliability evaluation using routing models, is based on a cyclic decomposition algorithm which alternates between a routing subproblem and a link capacity adjustment subproblem. The proposed procedure, which is shown to converge to a global optimum for the dimensioning/routing problem, has been tested on a 14 undirected arc problem for various levels of link failure probability. The numerical results are extremely satisfactory and they demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method for proper network dimensioning.     

Sensitivity Analysis Based Method for Optimal Road Network Pricing

Road pricing is an important economic measure for optimal management of transportation networks. The optimization objectives can be the total travel time or total cost incurred by all the travelers, or some other environmental objective such as minimum emission of dioxide, an so on. Suppose a certain toll is posed on some link on the network, this will give an impact on flows over the whole network and brings about a new equilibrium state. An equilibrium state is a state of traffic network at which no traveler could decrease the perceived travel cost by unilaterally changing the route. The aim of the toll setting is to achieve such an equilibrium state that a certain objective function is optimized. The problem can be formulated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). A key step for solving such a MPEC problem is the sensitivity analysis of traffic flows with respect to the change of link characteristics such as the toll prices. In this paper a sensitivity analysis based method is proposed for solving optimal road pricing problems.     

基于深度学习LSTM对交通流状态的预测

当今道路交通状态对城市管理和人们出行愈加重要,影响着人类生活的方方面面.以深圳交通为研究对象,由基础车辆数据和道路坐标构建了路网系统,从车辆速度和密度两个方面导出了交通流状态评价指数TSI.利用深度学习长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)对车辆速度和密度两个指标进行预测,并通过对比极限学习机(ELM),时间序列(ARMA)和BP神经网络,进行仿真实验,结果表明相对于传统预测模型,所采用的LSTM网络具有更优的预测精确度和对远期预测的稳定性.最后利用预测结果计算出更能直观反映出道路交通拥堵情况的TSI指数,为人们提供了准确的交通状态预测.     

基于模糊理论的交通安全评价方法的研究

道路交通安全系统的内部结构极为复杂,影响因素众多,各因素都具有模糊性.在综合研究分析国内外道路交通安全评价方法的基础上,对以往发生的道路交通事故资料进行分析,利用模糊评价理论,选取合理评价指标,建立了基于模糊的道路交通安全评价模型,对道路交通的安全性进行合理评价.     

基于失效边数概率分布的K-终端网络重要度计算方法

重要度是现代网络薄弱环节识别的常用工具,其能量化网络不同的边对网络可靠性的影响程度。以往的K-终端网络重要度计算方法需已知网络边的可靠性以及边发生失效相互独立的条件,不能满足现实网络对于网络重要度计算的需求。鉴于此,为了突破这些条件的限制,本文在给定失效边数目的概率分布的背景下,发展K-终端网络重要度的计算方法,并提供一个十二面体网络的算例,验证了该计算方法的有效性和正确性。     

多模式广义失效概率计算的数值模拟法及其工程应用

提出了安全与失效状态含有模糊信息时,广义失效概率计算的数值模拟,及相应的方差估算,并提出了对应的数值积分方法．当状态变量服从正态分布,且其对模糊安全域的隶属函数为正态型时,单个模式的广义失效概率具有精确解．首先利用这种特殊情况检验了所提数值模拟的精度,结果表明对于数值模拟法,随抽样次数的增加,估计值逐渐收敛于真实值．然后利用扩展原理和概率定理,提出两个及两个以上失效模式数广义失效概率的数值模拟计算方法以及相应的数值积分方法．对于工程结构问题,一般在删除次要失效模式之后,主要失效模式的数目不会太多,因此用该数值模拟与数值积分法可以得到精度较高的解．工程算例结果证明了此结论．另外还对所提的两种方法的适用范围做了讨论．     

Turning restriction design in traffic networks with a budget constraint

The restriction (prohibition) of certain turns at intersections is a very common task employed by the managers of urban traffic networks. Surprisingly, this approach has received little attention in the research literature. The turning restriction design problem (TRDP) involves finding a set of turning restrictions at intersections to promote flow in a congested urban traffic network. This article uses a successive linear approximation (SLA) method for identifying approximate solutions to a nonlinear model of the TRDP. It aims to adjust the current turning restriction regime in a given network in order to minimize total user travel cost when route choice is driven by user equilibrium principles. Novel features of the method include the facts that it is based on link capacity-based arc travel costs and there is a budget constraint on the total cost of all turning restriction alterations. It has been tested using standard network examples from the literature. One of the tests utilized a multi-start approach which improved the solutions produced by the SLA method. The method was also employed to identify turning restrictions for an actual medium-sized urban traffic network in Brazil. Computational experience with the proposed method is promising.