A Poisson limit theorem for a strongly ergodic non-homogeneous Markov chain

A strongly ergodic non-homogeneous Markov chain is considered in the paper. As an analog of the Poisson limit theorem for a homogeneous Markov chain recurring to small cylindrical sets, a Poisson limit theorem is given for the non-homogeneous Markov chain. Meanwhile, some interesting results about approximation independence and probabilities of small cylindrical sets are given.     

Removing logarithms in Poisson approximation to the partial sum process of a Markov chain

He and Xia (1997, Stochastic Processes Appl. 68, pp. 101–111) gave some error bounds for a Wasserstein distance between the distributions of the partial sum process of a Markov chain and a Poisson point process on the positive half-line. However, all these bounds increase logarithmically with the mean of the Poisson point process. In this paper, using the coupling method and a general deep result for estimating the errors of Poisson process approximation in Brown and Xia (2001, Ann. Probab. 29, pp. 1373–1403), we give a new error bound for the above Wasserstein distance. In contrast to the previous results of He and Xia (1997), our new error bound has no logarithm anymore and it is bounded and asymptotically remains constant as the mean increases.     

Compound Poisson Approximation of the Number of Exceedances in Gaussian Sequences

Consider a finite sequence of Gaussian random variables. Count the number of exceedances of some level a, i.e. the number of values exceeding the level. Let this level and the length of the sequence increase simultaneously so that the expected number of exceedances remains fixed. It is well-known that if the long-range dependence is not too strong, the number of exceeding points converges in distribution to a Poisson distribution. However, for sequences with some individual large correlations, the Poisson convergence is slow due to clumping. Using Steins method we show that, at least for m-dependent sequences, the rate of convergence is improved by using compound Poisson as approximating distribution. An explicit bound for the convergence rate is derived for the compound Poisson approximation, and also for a subclass of the compound Poisson distribution, where only clumps of size two are considered. Results from numerical calculations and simulations are also presented.     

Bounding the distance among longest paths in a connected graph

It is easy to see that in a connected graph any $2$ longest paths have a vertex in common. For $k\ge 7$, Skupień in 1966 obtained a connected graph in which some $k$ longest paths have no common vertex, but every $k?1$ longest paths have a common vertex. It is not known whether every $3$ longest paths in a connected graph have a common vertex and similarly for 4, 5, and $6$ longest path. Fujita et al. in 2015 give an upper bound on distance among $3$ longest paths in a connected graph. In this paper we give a similar upper bound on distance between $4$ longest paths and also for $k$ longest paths, in general.     

Approximation for counts of 2-runs in a two state Markov chain

We consider a Markov chain X = {Xi,i = 1,2,...} with the state space {0,1},and define W =∑i=1n XiXi+1,which is the number of 2-runs in X before time n + 1.In this paper,we prove that the negative binomial distribution is an appropriate approximation for LW when VarW is greater than EW.The error estimate obtained herein improves the corresponding result in previous literatures.     

Compound Poisson Approximation for Multiple Runs in a Markov Chain

We consider a sequence X ₁, ..., X _n of r.v.'s generated by a stationary Markov chain with state space A = {0, 1, ..., r}, r 1. We study the overlapping appearances of runs of k _i consecutive i's, for all i = 1, ..., r, in the sequence X ₁,..., X _n. We prove that the number of overlapping appearances of the above multiple runs can be approximated by a Compound Poisson r.v. with compounding distribution a mixture of geometric distributions. As an application of the previous result, we introduce a specific Multiple-failure mode reliability system with Markov dependent components, and provide lower and upper bounds for the reliability of the system.     

On the Number of Appearances of a Word in a Sequence of I.I.D. Trials

Let X ₁,...,X _n be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables taking values in an alphabet =₁,...,_q,q 2, with probabilities P(X _a=_i)=p _i,a=1,...,n,i=1,...,q. We consider a fixed h-letter word W=w₁...w_h which is produced under the above scheme. We define by R(W) the number of appearances of W as Renewal (which is equal with the maximum number of non-overlapping appearances) and by N(W) the number of total appearances of W (overlapping ones) in the sequence X _{a 1} a1n under the i.i.d. hypothesis. We derive a bound on the total variation distance between the distribution (R(W)) of the r.v. R(W) and that of a Poisson with parameter E(R(W)). We use the Stein-Chen method and related results from Barbour et al. (1992), as well as, combinatorial results from Schbath (1995b) concerning the periodic structure of the word W. Analogous results are obtained for the total variation distance between the distribution of the r.v. N(W) and that of an appropriate Compound Poisson r.v. Related limit theorems are obtained and via numerical computations our bounds are presented in tables.     

Absolute Continuity of Measures in the Class of Markov and Semi-Markov Processes of Diffusion Type

The property of absolute continuity of measures in the class of one-dimensional semi-Markov processes of diffusion type is investigated. The measure of such a process can be composed of two measures. The first one is a distribution of a random track, and the second one is a conditional distribution of a time run along the track. The desired density is represented in the form of product of two corresponding densities.     

Hitting time in a finite non-homogeneous Markov chain with applications

This paper deals with the computation of the hitting time for a non-homogeneous discrete time Markov chain (NHDTMC or NHMC). We first give the basic definitions of NHMC, then we analyse the hitting time and its survivor function. We also give the sufficient conditions for the existence of the mean hitting time. Finally, a numerical example and an application of this development in reliability evaluation are given in order to illustrate our results. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining a regression model with a multivariate Markov chain in a forecasting problem

This paper proposes a new concept: the usage of Multivariate Markov Chains (MMC) as covariates. Our approach is based on the observation that we can treat possible categorical (or discrete) regressors, whose values are unknown in the forecast period, as an MMC in order to improve the forecast error of a certain dependent variable. Hence, we take advantage of the information about the past state interactions between the MMC categories to forecast the categorical (or discrete) regressors and improve the forecast of the actual dependent variable.     

About the shortest chain between two vertices in a quasi strongly connected digraph with a potential

A closed form solution is provided for the length, relatively to a potential θ, of a chain between two vertices of a quasi strongly connected digraph.     

Dynamical equations for the quantum product on a symplectic space in affine coordinates

We derive a system of dynamical equations for an associative noncommutative product of functions on a symplectic space. This system is explicitly solved in semiclassical approximation.Translated from Matematicheskie Zametki, vol. 77, no. 1, 2005, pp. 42–52.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by O. N. Grigorev, M. V. Karasev.This revised version was published online in April 2005 with a corrected issue number.     

Covering with blocks in the non-symmetric case

Considering an infinite string of i.i.d. random letters drawn from a finite alphabet we define the cover timeW _n as the number of random letters needed until each pattern of lenghtn appears at least once as a substring. Sharp weak and a.s. limit results onW _n are known in the symmetric case, i.e., when the random letters are uniformly distributed over the alphabet. In this paper we determine the limit distribution ofW _n in the nonsymmetric case asn. Generalizations in terms of point processes are also proved.Dedicated to Endre Csáki on his 60th birthday.     

Coupling for Markov renewal processes and the rate of convergence in ergodic theorems for processes with semi-Markov switchings

Coupling procedures for Markov renewal processes are described. Applications to ergodic theorems for processes with semi-Markov switchings are considered.This paper was partly prepared with the support of NFR Grant F-UP 10257-300.     

On the first birth and the last death in a generation in a multi-type Markov branching process

In a multi-type continuous time Markov branching process the asymptotic distribution of the first birth in and the last death (extinction) of the kth generation can be determined from the asymptotic behavior of the probability generating function of the vector Z(^k)(t), the size of the kth generation at time t, as t tends to zero or as t tends to infinity, respectively. Apart from an appropriate transformation of the time scale, for a large initial population the generations emerge according to an independent sum of compound multi-dimensional Poisson processes and become extinct like a vector of independent reversed Poisson processes. In the first birth case the results also hold for a multi-type Bellman-Harris process if the life span distributions are differentiable at zero.     

Approximating individual risk of infection in a Markov chain epidemic network model with a deterministic system

In the Markov chain model of infectious diseases in a connected network of heterogeneous individuals, the computation of the risk of infection for each individual and the expected size of the infected population over time is an NP-hard problem. We show that the individual risk of infection over time can be approximated by orbits of a nonlinear discrete dynamical system on a phase space of dimension equal to the number of individuals in the network. An upper bound for the eradication rate of the infectious disease in the network is also obtained.     

Extension results in the Hardy space associated with a logmodular algebra

An interpolation result related to the Hardy space H^∞(m) associated with a logmodular algebra A is presented, where m is the representing measure for some γ?M (A). The above result is used to answer a question rasied in [6].