Bidding in sequential electricity markets: The Nordic case

For electricity market participants trading in sequential markets with differences in price levels and risk exposure, it is relevant to analyze the potential of coordinated bidding. We consider a Nordic power producer who engages in the day-ahead spot market and the hour-ahead balancing market. In both markets, clearing prices and dispatched volumes are unknown at the time of bidding. However, in the balancing market, the market participant faces an additional risk of not being dispatched. Taking into account the sequential clearing of these markets and the gradual realization of market prices, we formulate the bidding problem as a multi-stage stochastic program. We investigate whether higher risk exposure may cause hesitation to bid into the balancing market. Furthermore, we quantify the gain from coordinated bidding, and by deriving bounds on this gain, assess the performance of alternative bidding strategies used in practice.     

Stochastic programming based capacity planning for semiconductor wafer fab with uncertain demand and capacity

Capacity planning is a challenging problem in semiconductor manufacturing industry due to high uncertainties both in market and manufacturing systems, short product life cycle, and expensive capital invest. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a scenario-based stochastic programming model which considers demand and capacity uncertainties via scenarios, where the overall equipment efficiency is employed to describe the uncertain capacity for the first time. Based on the decentralized structure of tool procurement, production, stockout, and inventory decision-making processes, recourse approximation strategies are presented with varying degree of information share. The computational experiments show that the resulting tool set is robust enough to cope with the changes in capacity with the expected profits being maximized for different scenarios, and the scheme can generate pretty good solutions in reasonable computational time.     

An Integrated Market for Electricity and Natural Gas Systems with Stochastic Power Producers

In energy systems with high shares of weather-driven renewable power sources, gas-fired power plants can serve as a back-up technology to ensure security of supply and provide short-term flexibility. Therefore, a tighter coordination between electricity and natural gas networks is foreseen. In this work, we examine different levels of coordination in terms of system integration and time coupling of trading floors. We propose an integrated operational model for electricity and natural gas systems under uncertain power supply by applying two-stage stochastic programming. This formulation co-optimizes day-ahead and real-time dispatch of both energy systems and aims at minimizing the total expected cost. Additionally, two deterministic models, one of an integrated energy system and one that treats the two systems independently, are presented. We utilize a formulation that considers the linepack of the natural gas system, while it results in a tractable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model. Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model in accommodating high shares of renewables and the importance of proper natural gas system modeling in short-term operations to reveal valuable flexibility of the natural gas system. Moreover, we identify the coordination parameters between the two markets and show their impact on the system’s operation and dispatch.     

Stochastic equilibrium programming for dynamic oligopolistic markets

This paper deals with the concept of stochastic equilibrium programming (SEP), which has recently been proposed for the modeling of imperfect competition on uncertain dynamic markets. We show that the equilibria computed via SEP correspond to an information structure, called S-adapted open-loop, which is not common in the dynamic game literature. We compare the single-player case with the many-player case using a simple two-stage dynamical system. An illustration of the use of the approach for the modeling of imperfect dynamic markets is also provided.This research was supported by FCAR, Québec, Canada, by CRSNG, Canada, by DG XII, European Commission, and by SPPS, Belgium.     

Electricity market clearing with improved scheduling of stochastic production

In this paper, we consider an electricity market that consists of a day-ahead and a balancing settlement, and includes a number of stochastic producers. We first introduce two reference procedures for scheduling and pricing energy in the day-ahead market: on the one hand, a conventional network-constrained auction purely based on the least-cost merit order, where stochastic generation enters with its expected production and a low marginal cost; on the other, a counterfactual auction that also accounts for the projected balancing costs using stochastic programming. Although the stochastic clearing procedure attains higher market efficiency in expectation than the conventional day-ahead auction, it suffers from fundamental drawbacks with a view to its practical implementation. In particular, it requires flexible producers (those that make up for the lack or surplus of stochastic generation) to accept losses in some scenarios. Using a bilevel programming framework, we then show that the conventional auction, if combined with a suitable day-ahead dispatch of stochastic producers (generally different from their expected production), can substantially increase market efficiency and emulate the advantageous features of the stochastic optimization ideal, while avoiding its major pitfalls.     

A stochastic programming approach to cash management in banking

The treasurer of a bank is responsible for the cash management of several banking activities. In this work, we focus on two of them: cash management in automatic teller machines (ATMs), and in the compensation of credit card transactions. In both cases a decision must be taken according to a future customers demand, which is uncertain. From historical data we can obtain a discrete probability distribution of this demand, which allows the application of stochastic programming techniques. We present stochastic programming models for each problem. Two short-term and one mid-term models are presented for ATMs. The short-term model with fixed costs results in an integer problem which is solved by a fast (i.e. linear running time) algorithm. The short-term model with fixed and staircase costs is solved through its MILP equivalent deterministic formulation. The mid-term model with fixed and staircase costs gives rise to a multi-stage stochastic problem, which is also solved by its MILP deterministic equivalent. The model for compensation of credit card transactions results in a closed form solution. The optimal solutions of those models are the best decisions to be taken by the bank, and provide the basis for a decision support system.     

Weekly self-scheduling,forward contracting,and pool involvement for an electricity producer. An adaptive robust optimization approach

This paper addresses the optimization under uncertainty of the self-scheduling, forward contracting, and pool involvement of an electricity producer operating a mixed power generation station, which combines thermal, hydro and wind sources, and uses a two stage adaptive robust optimization approach. In this problem the wind power production and the electricity pool price are considered to be uncertain, and are described by uncertainty convex sets. To solve this problem, two variants of a constraint generation algorithm are proposed, and their application and characteristics discussed. Both algorithms are used to solve two case studies based on two producers, each operating equivalent generation units, differing only in the thermal units’ characteristics. Their market strategies are investigated for three different scenarios, corresponding to as many instances of electricity price forecasts. The effect of the producers’ approach, whether conservative or more risk prone, is also investigated by solving each instance for multiple values of the so-called budget parameter. It was possible to conclude that this parameter influences markedly the producers’ strategy, in terms of scheduling, profit, forward contracting, and pool involvement. These findings are presented and analyzed in detail, and an attempted rationale is proposed to explain the less intuitive outcomes. Regarding the computational results, these show that for some instances, the two variants of the algorithms have a similar performance, while for a particular subset of them one variant has a clear superiority.     

Stochastic semidefinite programming: a new paradigm for stochastic optimization

Semidefinite programs are a class of optimization problems that have been studied extensively during the past 15 years. Semidefinite programs are naturally related to linear programs, and both are defined using deterministic data. Stochastic programs were introduced in the 1950s as a paradigm for dealing with uncertainty in data defining linear programs. In this paper, we introduce stochastic semidefinite programs as a paradigm for dealing with uncertainty in data defining semidefinite programs.The work of this author was supported in part by the U.S. Army Research Office under Grant DAAD 19-00-1-0465. The material in this paper is part of the doctoral dissertation of this author in preparation at Washington State University.     

Day-ahead market bidding for a Nordic hydropower producer: taking the Elbas market into account

In many power markets around the world the energy generation decisions result from two-sided auctions in which producing and consuming agents submit their price-quantity bids. The determination of optimal bids in power markets is a complicated task that has to be undertaken every day. In the present work, we propose an optimization model for a price-taker hydropower producer in Nord Pool that takes into account the uncertainty in market prices and both production and physical trading aspects. The day-ahead bidding takes place a day before the actual operation and energy delivery. After this round of bidding, but before actual operation, some adjustments in the dispatched power (accepted bids) have to be done, due to uncertainty in prices, inflow and load. Such adjustments can be done in the Elbas market, which allows for trading physical electricity up to one hour before the operation hour. This paper uses stochastic programming to determine the optimal bidding strategy and the impact of the possibility to participate in the Elbas. ARMAX and GARCH techniques are used to generate realistic market price scenarios taking into account both day-ahead price and Elbas price uncertainty. The results show that considering Elbas when bidding in the day-ahead market does not significantly impact neither the profit nor the recommended bids of a typical hydro producer.     

Stochastic models for strategic resource allocation in nonprofit foreclosed housing acquisitions

Increased rates of mortgage foreclosures in the U.S. have had devastating social and economic impacts during and after the 2008 financial crisis. As part of the response to this problem, nonprofit organizations such as community development corporations (CDCs) have been trying to mitigate the negative impacts of mortgage foreclosures by acquiring and redeveloping foreclosed properties. We consider the strategic resource allocation decisions for these organizations which involve budget allocations to different neighborhoods under cost and return uncertainty. Based on interactions with a CDC, we develop stochastic integer programming based frameworks for this decision problem, and assess the practical value of the models by using real-world data. Both policy-related and computational analyses are performed, and several insights such as the trade-offs between different objectives, and the efficiency of different solution approaches are presented.     

A dynamic stochastic programming model for international portfolio management

We develop a multi-stage stochastic programming model for international portfolio management in a dynamic setting. We model uncertainty in asset prices and exchange rates in terms of scenario trees that reflect the empirical distributions implied by market data. The model takes a holistic view of the problem. It considers portfolio rebalancing decisions over multiple periods in accordance with the contingencies of the scenario tree. The solution jointly determines capital allocations to international markets, the selection of assets within each market, and appropriate currency hedging levels. We investigate the performance of alternative hedging strategies through extensive numerical tests with real market data. We show that appropriate selection of currency forward contracts materially reduces risk in international portfolios. We further find that multi-stage models consistently outperform single-stage models. Our results demonstrate that the stochastic programming framework provides a flexible and effective decision support tool for international portfolio management.     

Applying stochastic goal programming: A case study on water use planning

A decision support model to help public water agencies allocate surface water among farmers and authorize the use of groundwater for irrigation (especially in Mediterranean dry regions) is developed. This is a stochastic goal programming approach with two goals, the first concerning farm management while the other concerns environmental impact. Targets for both goals are established by the agency. This model yields three reduction factors to decide the different reductions in available surface water, standard groundwater and complementary groundwater that the agency should grant/authorize for irrigation, this depending on if it is a dry or wet year. In drought periods, the model recommends using more groundwater (in percentage) than in wet periods. A case study using year-to-year statistical information on available water over the period 1941–2005 is developed through numerical tables. A step-by-step computational process is presented in detail.     

Stochastic models for bidding strategies on oligopoly electricity market

In this paper we consider the forward/futures contracts and Asian-type call options for power delivery as important components of the bidding strategies of the players’ profits on the electricity market. We show how these derivatives can affect their profit. We use linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium (SFE) and Cournot models to develop firms’ optimal bidding strategies by including forward/futures contracts and Asian-type options. We extend the methodology proposed by Niu et al. (IEEE Trans Power Syst 20(4):1859–1867, 2005), where only forward contracts for power delivery were considered in the SFE model.     

A stochastic programming model for scheduling call centers with global Service Level Agreements

We consider the issue of call center scheduling in an environment where arrivals rates are highly variable, aggregate volumes are uncertain, and the call center is subject to a global service level constraint. This paper is motivated by work with a provider of outsourced technical support services where call volumes exhibit significant variability and uncertainty. The outsourcing contract specifies a Service Level Agreement that must be satisfied over an extended period of a week or month. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer stochastic program. Our model has two distinctive features. Firstly, we combine the server sizing and staff scheduling steps into a single optimization program. Secondly, we explicitly recognize the uncertainty in period-by-period arrival rates. We show that the stochastic formulation, in general, calculates a higher cost optimal schedule than a model which ignores variability, but that the expected cost of this schedule is lower. We conduct extensive experimentation to compare the solutions of the stochastic program with the deterministic programs, based on mean valued arrivals. We find that, in general, the stochastic model provides a significant reduction in the expected cost of operation. The stochastic model also allows the manager to make informed risk management decisions by evaluating the probability that the Service Level Agreement will be achieved.     

Connectivity-and-hop-constrained design of electricity distribution networks

This paper addresses the problem of designing the configuration of an interconnected electricity distribution network, so as to maximize the minimum power margin over the feeders. In addition to the limitation of feeder power capacity, the distance (as hop count) between any customer and its allocated feeder is also limited for preventing power losses and voltage drops. Feasibility conditions are studied and a complexity analysis is performed before introducing a heuristic algorithm and two integer linear programming formulations for addressing the problem. A cutting-plane algorithm relying on the generation of two classes of cuts for enforcing connectivity and distance requirements respectively is proposed for solving the second integer linear programming formulation. All the approaches are then compared on a set of 190 instances before discussing their performances.     

A multi-objective multi-period stochastic programming model for public debt management

While raising debt on behalf of the government, public debt managers need to consider several possibly conflicting objectives and have to find an appropriate combination for government debt taking into account the uncertainty with regard to the future state of the economy. In this paper, we explicitly consider the underlying uncertainties with a complex multi-period stochastic programming model that captures the trade-offs between the objectives. The model is designed to aid the decision makers in formulating the debt issuance strategy. We apply an interactive procedure that guides the issuer to identify good strategies and demonstrate this approach for the public debt management problem of Turkey.     

Multistage stochastic portfolio optimisation in deregulated electricity markets using linear decision rules

The deregulation of electricity markets increases the financial risk faced by retailers who procure electric energy on the spot market to meet their customers’ electricity demand. To hedge against this exposure, retailers often hold a portfolio of electricity derivative contracts. In this paper, we propose a multistage stochastic mean-variance optimisation model for the management of such a portfolio. To reduce computational complexity, we apply two approximations: we aggregate the decision stages and solve the resulting problem in linear decision rules (LDR). The LDR approach consists of restricting the set of recourse decisions to those affine in the history of the random parameters. When applied to mean-variance optimisation models, it leads to convex quadratic programs. Since their size grows typically only polynomially with the number of periods, they can be efficiently solved. Our numerical experiments illustrate the value of adaptivity inherent in the LDR method and its potential for enabling scalability to problems with many periods.     

Stochastic programming for nurse assignment

We present a brief overview of four phases of nurse planning. For the last phase, which assigns nurses to patients, a stochastic integer programming model is developed. A Benders’ decomposition approach is proposed to solve this problem, and a greedy algorithm is employed to solve the recourse subproblem. To improve the efficiency of the algorithm, we introduce sets of valid inequalities to strengthen a relaxed master problem. Computational results are provided based upon data from Baylor Regional Medical Center in Grapevine, Texas. Finally, areas of future research are discussed.     

Stochastic utility-efficient programming of organic dairy farms

Opportunities to make sequential decisions and adjust activities as a season progresses and more information becomes available characterise the farm management process. In this paper, we present a discrete stochastic two-stage utility-efficient programming model of organic dairy farms, which includes risk aversion in the decision maker’s objective function as well as both embedded risk (stochastic programming with recourse) and non-embedded risk (stochastic programming without recourse). Historical farm accountancy data and subjective judgements were combined to assess the nature of the uncertainty that affects the possible consequences of the decisions. The programming model was used within a stochastic dominance framework to examine optimal strategies in organic dairy systems in Norway.     

Payment mechanisms for electricity markets with uncertain supply

This paper provides a framework for deriving payment mechanisms for intermittent, flexible and inflexible electricity generators who are dispatched according to the optimal solution of a stochastic program that minimizes the expected cost of generation plus deviation. The first stage corresponds to a pre-commitment decision, and the second stage corresponds to real-time generation that adapts to different realizations of a random variable. By taking the Lagrangian and decoupling in different ways we study two payment mechanisms with different properties.