Optimal advertising strategies with age-structured goodwill

The problem of a firm willing to optimally promote and sell a single product on the market is here undertaken. The awareness of such product is modeled by means of a Nerlove–Arrow goodwill as a state variable, differentiated jointly by means of time and of age of the segments in which the consumers are clustered. The problem falls into the class of infinite horizon optimal control problems of PDEs with age structure that have been studied in various papers either in cases when explicit solutions can be found or using Maximum Principle techniques. Here, assuming an infinite time horizon, we use some dynamic programming techniques in infinite dimension to characterize both the optimal advertising effort and the optimal goodwill path in the long run. An interesting feature of the optimal advertising effort is an anticipation effect with respect to the segments considered in the target market, due to time evolution of the segmentation. We analyze this effect in two different scenarios: in the first, the decision-maker can choose the advertising flow directed to different age segments at different times, while in the second she/he can only decide the activation level of an advertising medium with a given age-spectrum.     

Advertising and production of a seasonal good for a heterogeneous market

We bring some concepts from market segmentation, which is a fundamental topic of marketing theory and practice, into the statement of an advertising and production problem for a seasonal product with Nerlove–Arrow’s linear goodwill dynamics. We consider two kinds of situations. In the first one, the advertising process can reach selectively each segment. In the second one, one advertising medium is available which has a known effectiveness spectrum for a non-trivial set of segments. In both cases we solve, using the Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle conditions, the optimal control problems in which goodwill productivity of advertising is concave and good production cost is convex. Two special cases are discussed in detail.     

Advertising a new product in a segmented market

We bring some market segmentation concepts into the statement of the “new product introduction” problem with Nerlove-Arrow’s linear goodwill dynamics. In fact, only a few papers on dynamic quantitative advertising models deal with market segmentation, although this is a fundamental topic of marketing theory and practice. In this way we obtain some new deterministic optimal control problems solutions and show how such marketing concepts as “targeting” and “segmenting” may find a mathematical representation. We consider two kinds of situations. In the first one, we assume that the advertising process can reach selectively each target group. In the second one, we assume that one advertising channel is available and that it has an effectiveness segment-spectrum, which is distributed over a non-trivial set of segments. We obtain the explicit optimal solutions of the relevant problems.     

Using several advertising media in a homogeneous market

We propose a variety of models to represent the joint effect of several advertising media on the demand for a product in a homogeneous market, and discuss the associated profit maximization problems. An advertising productivity function represents the combination of several media and, together with demand and advertising cost functions, determines the features of the associated profit problem. We distinguish between additive and nonadditive advertising productivity functions, then between smooth and nonsmooth ones. The demand function may either be linear or not. We observe how different models may exhibit either synergy or interference effects. In some cases we obtain explicit optimal solutions.     

Optimal advertising pulsation policies: a dynamic programming approach

This study formulates and solves an advertising pulsation problem for a monopolistic firm using dynamic programming (DP). The firm aims at maximising profit through an optimal allocation of the advertising budget in terms of rectangular pulses over a finite planning horizon. Aggregate sales response to the advertising effort is assumed to be governed by a modified version of the Vidale–Wolfe model in continuous time proposed by Little. Using a numerical example in which a planning horizon of one year is divided into one, two through ten equal time periods, computing routines are developed to solve 150 DP problems. Computational results show among other findings that the performance yielded by the DP policy dominates the uniform advertising policy (constant spending) for a concave advertising response function and the advertising pulsing policy (turning advertising on and off) for a linear or convex response function.     

Advertising for a new product introduction: A stochastic approach

We formulate a stochastic extension of the Nerlove and Arrow’s advertising model in order to analyze the problem of a new product introduction. The main idea is to introduce some uncertainty aspects in connection both with the advertising action and the goodwill decay, in order to represent the random consequences of the advertising messages and of the word-of-mouth publicity, respectively. The model is stated in terms of the stochastic optimal control theory and a general study is attempted using the stochastic Maximum Principle. Closed form solutions are obtained under linear quadratic assumptions for the cost and the reward functions. Such optimal policies suggest that the decision-maker considers both the above mentioned phenomena as opportunities to increase her/his final reward. After stating some general features of the optimal solutions, we analyze in detail three extreme cases, namely the deterministic model and the stochastic models with either the word-of-mouth effect only, or the lure/repulsion effect only. The optimal policies provide us with some insight on the general effects of the advertising action. Supported by MIUR and University of Padua.     

On Controlled Linear Diffusions with Delay in a Model of Optimal Advertising under Uncertainty with Memory Effects

We consider a class of dynamic advertising problems under uncertainty in the presence of carryover and distributed forgetting effects, generalizing the classical model of Nerlove and Arrow (Economica 29:129–142, 1962). In particular, we allow the dynamics of the product goodwill to depend on its past values, as well as previous advertising levels. Building on previous work (Gozzi and Marinelli in Lect. Notes Pure Appl. Math., vol. 245, pp. 133–148, 2006), the optimal advertising model is formulated as an infinite-dimensional stochastic control problem. We obtain (partial) regularity as well as approximation results for the corresponding value function. Under specific structural assumptions, we study the effects of delays on the value function and optimal strategy. In the absence of carryover effects, since the value function and the optimal advertising policy can be characterized in terms of the solution of the associated HJB equation, we obtain sharper characterizations of the optimal policy.     

A communication mix for an event planning: a linear quadratic approach

The communication mix is a relevant decision issue for an organization that plans the advertising campaign for a fixed future event. It is assumed that the objectives of the organization are to minimize the cost of the advertising campaign and to drive the final demand as close as possible to a target value. Two different advertising channels are available: the first affects deterministically the consumers’ demand, whereas the second presents some stochastic aspects which are out of decision-maker’s control. Some recent mathematical developments on the stochastic linear quadratic control problem allow to formulate and solve some interesting instances of the problem. A comparative analysis of the efficiency of deterministic and stochastic controls is done and the optimal feedback policies are discussed. The trade-off between efficiency and risk of an advertising channel is essential to understand the features of the optimal solutions.This study was supported by MIUR and University of Padua.     

Optimal control of information epidemics modeled as Maki Thompson rumors

We model the spread of information in a homogeneously mixed population using the Maki Thompson rumor model. We formulate an optimal control problem, from the perspective of single campaigner, to maximize the spread of information when the campaign budget is fixed. Control signals, such as advertising in the mass media, attempt to convert ignorants and stiflers into spreaders. We show the existence of a solution to the optimal control problem when the campaigning incurs non-linear costs under the isoperimetric budget constraint. The solution employs Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle and a modified version of forward backward sweep technique for numerical computation to accommodate the isoperimetric budget constraint. The techniques developed in this paper are general and can be applied to similar optimal control problems in other areas.We have allowed the spreading rate of the information epidemic to vary over the campaign duration to model practical situations when the interest level of the population in the subject of the campaign changes with time. The shape of the optimal control signal is studied for different model parameters and spreading rate profiles. We have also studied the variation of the optimal campaigning costs with respect to various model parameters. Results indicate that, for some model parameters, significant improvements can be achieved by the optimal strategy compared to the static control strategy. The static strategy respects the same budget constraint as the optimal strategy and has a constant value throughout the campaign horizon. This work finds application in election and social awareness campaigns, product advertising, movie promotion and crowdfunding campaigns.     

供应链互补产品广告投入和捆绑销售联合决策研究

以一个制造商和一个零售商的供应链为研究对象,制造商生产两种互补产品,零售商可选择分开或捆绑两种销售策略。考虑互补品的负交叉弹性和广告外部性的特点,构建基于溢出效应的需求模型,运用博弈论的方法,求解零售商采取分开和捆绑两种销售策略时的均衡结果。通过比较不同销售策略下的均衡结果及利润关系,探讨在分散式和集中式两种情况下,零售商的最优广告投入和捆绑销售的联合决策问题。最后,通过数值算例,讨论产品互补程度和广告成本系数对决策结果的影响。研究结果表明,无论是在分散式还是集中式决策下,当产品互补程度较高或广告成本系数低时,分开销售是占优策略而广告费用较高;当产品互补程度较低且广告成本系数高时,捆绑销售是占优策略且广告费用较低。     

Adpuls in continuous time

Hermann Simon (1982) presented a formulation of the advertising sales relation for which pulsing is a long run optimal policy. His model, named Adpuls, explains wearout phenomena drawing on Helson's (1964) adaptation level theory. It is formulated in discrete time and the optimal policy alternates between high and low advertising effort from period to period. So the length of the model period determines the phase durations of pulsing. But the model period is predetermined. Practice, however, is interested in optimal durations of flights and pauses between them. In order to cope with this problem a continuous time version of Adpuls is proposed, for which optimal pulsing patterns are obtained numerically.     

Signaling Quality: Dynamic Price-Advertising Model

This paper extends the existing quality-signaling literature by investigating the roles of price and advertising levels as quality indicators in a dynamic framework. Considering perceived quality as a form of goodwill, we modify the well-known Nerlove-Arrow dynamic model to include price effects. In our model, price is used both as a monetary constraint and as a signal of quality, while advertising spending is used only as a signaling device, and thus purely as a dissipative expense. Utilizing optimal control, we determine optimal decision rules for a firm regarding both price and advertising over time as functions of perceived quality. The results indicate that, when prices act as monetary constraints and are reduced to increase demand, the firm should use the signaling role of advertising by increasing spending to accelerate perceived quality increases. In cases when the value of the perceived quality goes up together with the increase in the perceived quality by more than the demand, in percentage terms, the firm should increase the price (use its signaling role). At steady-state, we find that the level of optimal profit margin relative to price decreases with the elasticity of demand with respect to the brand price. However, higher elasticity of demand with respect to the firm’s perceived quality and/or a higher impact of price (advertising) lead/leads to a higher optimal profit margin (advertising spending) relative to price (revenue).     

A joint dynamic pricing and advertising model of perishable products

Advertising and dynamic pricing play key roles in maximizing profit of a firm. In this paper a joint dynamic pricing and advertising problem for perishable products is investigated, where the time-varying demand rate is decreasing in sales price and increasing in goodwill. A dynamic optimization model is proposed to maximize total profit by setting a joint pricing and advertising policy under the constraint of a limited advertising capacity. By solving the dynamic optimization problem on the basis of Pontryagin’s maximum principle, the analytical solutions of the optimal joint dynamic pricing and advertising policy are obtained. Additionally, to highlight the advantage of the joint dynamic strategy, the case of the optimal advertising with static pricing policy is considered. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the validness of the theoretical results, and some managerial implications for the pricing and advertising of the perishable products are provided.     

Multiple-Subarc Gradient-Restoration Algorithm, Part 1: Algorithm Structure

Rapid progresses in information and computer technology allow the development of more advanced optimal control algorithms dealing with real-world problems. In this paper, which is Part 1 of a two-part sequence, a multiple-subarc gradient-restoration algorithm (MSGRA) is developed. We note that the original version of the sequential gradient-restoration algorithm (SGRA) was developed by Miele et al. in single-subarc form (SSGRA) during the years 1968–86; it has been applied successfully to solve a large number of optimal control problems of atmospheric and space flight.MSGRA is an extension of SSGRA, the single-subarc gradient-restoration algorithm. The primary reason for MSGRA is to enhance the robustness of gradient-restoration algorithms and also to enlarge the field of applications. Indeed, MSGRA can be applied to optimal control problems involving multiple subsystems as well as discontinuities in the state and control variables at the interface between contiguous subsystems.Two features of MSGRA are increased automation and efficiency. The automation of MSGRA is enhanced via time normalization: the actual time domain is mapped into a normalized time domain such that the normalized time length of each subarc is 1. The efficiency of MSGRA is enhanced by using the method of particular solutions to solve the multipoint boundary-value problems associated with the gradient phase and the restoration phase of the algorithm.In a companion paper [Part 2 (Ref. 2)], MSGRA is applied to compute the optimal trajectory for a multistage launch vehicle design, specifically, a rocket-powered spacecraft ascending from the Earth surface to a low Earth orbit (LEO). Single-stage, double-stage, and triple-stage configurations are considered and compared.     

Modelling advertising budgeting and allocation decisions using modified multinomial logit market share models

Previous research suggests that a multinomial logit model of market share (MNL) is inappropriate for equilibrium analyses of advertising competition. This article shows that when employing simple transformations of the advertising effort, the modified MNL model becomes useful in representing situations of diminishing returns to advertising and appropriate for advertising equilibrium analyses without additional difficulties in its empirical estimation. Using the modified MNL model, optimal advertising budgets together with their allocation over time are derived for both the cases of concave and S-shaped attraction (response) functions in a symmetric oligopoly.     

Optimal normative policies for marketing of products with limited availability

We develop optimal normative policies for pricing and advertising of products with limited availability by including the traditional product diffusion parameters (Bass, 1969)–innovation and imitation, and the scarcity effects generated due to limited product availability (Swami and Khairnar, 2003). Using optimal control methodology, our pricing policy results suggest that a profit-maximizing firm gradually increases the price as the sales approach the product availability. The optimal normative advertising policy recommends gradually decreasing the expenditure on the awareness advertising and increasing the expenditure on the availability advertising as the product diffusion progresses. These results are illustrated with suitable numerical examples.     

Optimal Advertising and Pricing in a New-Product Adoption Model

A model of new-product adoption is proposed that incorporates price and advertising effects. An optimal control problem that uses the model as its dynamics is solved explicitly to obtain the optimal price and advertising effort over time. The model has a great potential to be used in obtaining solutions and insights in a variety of differential game settings. The authors thank Anshuman Chutani for help with the figures.     

Hybrid subgames and copycat games in a pulsing model of advertising competition

Two recent papers,^6,7 introduced the game of pulsing competition (PC) in advertising together with its related subgames of alternating pulsing competition (APC) and matching pulsing competition (MPC) for a duopoly. Following a game theoretic approach in conjunction with a continuous Lanchester model, the above authors basically concluded that when at least one of the response functions is convex, generalising monopolistic advertising pulsation results to a competitive setting might not be adequate. This paper expands the scope of the PC game by incorporating in its structure for the first time in the literature, two versions of a hybrid pulsing competition (HPC) subgame. The article compares the payoffs of the four alternative subgames and provides an analytical solution of a special case of the PC game. In addition, the article also introduces for the first time a variant of the PC game designated by ‘the copycat advertising game’ and shows analytically that for such a game the policy of constant advertising spending over time is optimal for both firms irrespective of the shape of their advertising response functions. The paper illustrates at its end how to solve numerically the expanded PC game in its general form using linear programming and how to derive a solution for a copycat advertising game.     

A dynamic model for advertising and pricing competition between national and store brands

We study the relationship between the pricing and advertising decisions in a channel where a national brand is competing with a private label. We consider a differential game that incorporates the carryover effects of brand advertising over time for both the manufacturer and the retailer and we account for the complementary and competitive roles of advertising. Analysis of the obtained equilibrium Markov strategies shows that the relationship between advertising and pricing decisions in the channel depends mainly on the nature of the advertising effects. In particular, the manufacturer reacts to higher competitive retailer’s advertising levels by offering price concessions and limiting his advertising expenditures. The retailer’s optimal reaction to competitive advertising effects in the channel depends on two factors: (1) the price competition level between the store and the national brands and (2) the strength of the competitive advertising effects. For example, in case of intense price competition between the two brands combined with a strong manufacturer’s competitive advertising effect, the retailer should lower both the store and the national brands’ prices as a reaction to higher manufacturer’s advertising levels. For the retailer, the main advantage from boosting his competitive advertising investments seems to be driven by increased revenues from the private label. The retailer should however limit his investments in advertising if the latter generates considerable competitive effects on the national brand’s sales.