Stable network topologies using the notion of covering

An alternative perspective to evaluate networks and network evolution is introduced, based on the notion of covering. For a particular node in a network covering captures the idea of being outperformed by another node in terms of, for example, visibility and possibility of information gathering. In this paper, we focus on networks where these subdued network positions do not exist. We call these networks stable. Within this set we identify the minimal stable networks, which frequently have a ‘bubble-like’ structure. Severing a link in such a network results in at least one of the nodes being covered. In a minimal stable network therefore all nodes cooperate to avoid that one of the nodes ends up in a subdued position. Our results can be applied to, for example, the design of (covert) communication networks and the dynamics of social and information networks.     

Hybrid systems: Modelling and analysis using emergent dynamics

In this paper, we discuss modelling and analysis of hybrid systems with physical interaction dynamics. Such systems are typically considered complex and they are modelled using abstractions. Abstractions may, however, unintentionally exclude critical details, leading to partial or false results. Therefore, we study here use of a particle system in modelling and analysis. The novelty of the particle system is that it is designed to reveal interaction dynamics as emergent dynamics; thus, supporting analysis of complex and intricate interaction dynamics with acceptable modelling effort. As the main contribution, we formalize the particle system, and use it to model and analyze hybrid systems, both mechanical and biological, with nontrivial interaction dynamics.     

Dynamic facility location when the total number of facilities is uncertain: A decision analysis approach

Models developed to analyze facility location decisions have typically optimized one or more objectives, subject to physical, structural, and policy constraints, in a static or deterministic setting. Because of the large capital outlays that are involved, however, facility location decisions are frequently long-term in nature. Consequently, there may be considerable uncertainty regarding the way in which relevant parameters in the location decision will change over time. In this paper, we propose two approaches for analyzing these types of dynamic location problems, focussing on situations where the total number of facilities to be located in uncertain. We term this type of location problem NOFUN (Number Of Facilities Uncertain). We analyze the NOFUN problem using two well-established decision criteria: the minimization of expected opportunity loss (EOL), and the minimization of maximum regret. In general, these criteria assume that there are a finite number of decision options and a finite number of possible states of nature. The minisum EOL criterion assumes that one can assign probabilities for the occurrence of the various states of nature and, therefore, find the initial set of facility locations that minimize the sum of expected losses across all future states. The minimax regret criteria finds the pattern of initial facility locations whose maximum loss is minimized over all possible future states.     

A technological,organisational, and environmental analysis of decision making methodologies and satisfaction in the context of IT induced business transformations

Although Operational Research (OR) has successfully provided many methodologies to address complex decision problems, in particular based on the rationality principle, there has been too little discussion regarding their limited consideration in IT evaluation practice and associated decision making satisfaction levels in an organisational context. The aim of this paper is to address these issues through providing a current account of diffusion and infusion of OR methodologies in IT decision making practice, and by analysing factors affecting decision making satisfaction from a Technological, Organisational, and Environmental (TOE) framework in the context of IT induced business transformations. We developed a structural equation model and conducted an empirical survey, which supported four out of five developed research hypotheses. Our results show that while Decision Support Systems (DSSs), holistic IT evaluation methods, and management support seem to positively affect individual satisfaction, legislative regulation has an adverse effect. Results also revealed a persistent methodology diffusion and infusion gap. The paper discusses implications in each of these aspects and presents opportunities for future work.     

Structuring decision problems: A case study and reflections for practitioners

This article reviews several approaches to problem structuring and, in particular, the three-step structuring process for decision analysis proposed by von Winterfeldt and Edwards: (1) identifying the problem; (2) selecting an appropriate analytical approach; (3) developing the a detailed analytic structure. This three-step process is re-examined in the context of a decision analysis of alternative policies to reduce electromagnetic field exposure from electric power lines. This decision analysis was conducted for a public health organization funded by the California Public Utilities Commission and it was scrutinized throughout by interested stakeholders. As a result a significant effort went into structuring this problem appropriately, with some successes and some missteps. The article extracts lessons from this experience, updating existing guidance on structuring problems for decision analysis, and concluding with some general insights for problem structuring.     

Multicriterion reliability-oriented optimization of structural systems by stochastic programming

Papers deals with multicriterion reliability-oriented optimization of truss structures by stochastic programming. Deterministic approach to structural optimization appears to be insufficient when loads acting upon a structure and material properties of the structure elements have a random nature. The aim of this paper is to show importance of random modelling of the structure and influence of random parameters on an optimal solution. Usually, quality of engineering structure design is considered in terms of displacements, total cost and reliability. Therefore, optimization problem has been formulated and then solved in order to show interaction between displacement and a total cost objective function. The examples of 4-bar and 25-bar truss structures illustrate our considerations. The results of optimization are presented in the form of diagrams.     

Risk analysis and decision theory: A bridge

The risk-triplet approach pioneered by Kaplan and Garrick is the keystone of operational risk analysis. We perform a sharp embedding of the elements of this framework into the one of formal decision theory, which is mainly concerned with the methodological and modeling issues of decision making. The aim of this exercise is twofold: on the one hand, it gives operational risk analysis a direct access to the rich toolbox that decision theory has developed, in the last decades, in order to deal with complex layers of uncertainty; on the other, it exposes decision theory to the challenges of operational risk analysis, thus providing it with broader scope and new stimuli.     

Minimax approach to structural optimization problems

The problem of determining the shape of an elastic body which is optimal for a whole class of loads is formulated. Its general solution scheme, based on a minimax approach, is indicated. The optimization problem of an elastic beam is studied for both the simply supported case and the cantilevered case, and some specific properties of the optimal shape are determined.The author is grateful to Professor A. I. Lurie, Professor F. L. Chernousko, and Professor G. S. Shapiro for useful discussions of the results.     

Design of computer network topologies: A Vroom Inspired Psychoclonal Algorithm

In the prevailing era of network and communication technology, the problem pertaining to the determination of the most economic way to interconnect nodes while satisfying some reliability and quality of service constraints has been agnized as one of the most intricate and challenging problem for the modern day researchers and practitioners belonging to Communication and Networking community. Motivated by the improved performance of the concepts like proliferation, affinity maturation, receptor editing, etc., over the more prevalent generalized crossover and mutation; and by the application and effectiveness of Maslow’s need hierarchy in combinatorial optimization as well the more logical motivational concepts provided by Vroom’s valence expectancy theory, authors have proposed and investigated their applications to the topological design of distributed packet switched networks. The extensive computations over the problems of varying complexities and dimensions prove the superiority of the proposed methodology. It has been observed that the proposed Vroom Inspired Psychoclonal Algorithm (VIPA) outperforms the traditional well established random search algorithms (i.e. Genetic Algorithm, Simulated Annealing and Artificial Immune Systems) in the context of underlying problem; the performance being significantly improved as the problem complexity increases.     

Dynamical distance: coarse grains, pattern recognition, and network analysis

A system moves randomly in a space of states X governed by a stochastic matrix R. From the dynamics alone a distance function is defined on X. This distance allows a coarse graining that is optimal with respect to the dynamics in the following sense: if all grains are of diameter less than ? then the coarse grained dynamics and original dynamics differ by less than ?, which is to say the coarse graining is commutative up to that level. Using this distance function two applications are considered: the creation of “words” or concepts in pattern recognition and the identification of communities in networks.     

The FCFS service discipline: Stable network topologies, bounds on traffic burstiness and delay, and control by regulators

We consider the well-known First Come First Serve (FCFS) scheduling policy under bursty arrivals. This policy is commonly used in scheduling communication networks and manufacturing systems. Recently it has been shown that the FCFS policy can be unstable for some nonacyclic network topologies.We identify some network topologies under which FCFS is stable for all arrival and service rate vectors within the system's capacity. This is done by determining a sharp bound on the burstiness of traffic exiting from a tandem section of the system, in terms of the burstiness of the incoming traffic. This burstiness bound further allows us to provide a bound on the maximum number of parts in the system, and the maximum delay. It also enables us to analyze the performance of some systems controlled by the use of traffic smoothing regulators. The maximum delay can remain bounded even in the heavy traffic limit, when all stations are 100% utilized.     

Valuing risky debt: A new model combining structural information with the reduced-form approach

A new model of credit risk is proposed in which the intensity of default is described by an additional stochastic differential equation coupled with the process of the obligor’s asset value. Such an approach allows us to incorporate structural information as well as to capture the effect of external factors (e.g. macroeconomic factors) in a both parsimonious and economically consistent way. From the practical standpoint, the proposed model offers great flexibility and allows us to obtain credit spread curves of many different shapes, including double humped term structures. Furthermore, an approximate closed-form solution is derived, which is accurate, easy to implement, and allows for an efficient calibration to realized credit spreads. Numerical experiments are presented showing that the novel approach provides a very satisfactory fitting to market data and outperforms the model developed by Madan and Unal (2000).     

Linking structural equation modeling to Bayesian networks: Decision support for customer retention in virtual communities

Bayesian networks are limited in differentiating between causal and spurious relationships among decision factors. Decision making without differentiating the two relationships cannot be effective. To overcome this limitation of Bayesian networks, this study proposes linking Bayesian networks to structural equation modeling (SEM), which has an advantage in testing causal relationships between factors. The capability of SEM in empirical validation combined with the prediction and diagnosis capabilities of Bayesian modeling facilitates effective decision making from identification of causal relationships to decision support. This study applies the proposed integrated approach to decision support for customer retention in a virtual community. The application results provide insights for practitioners on how to retain their customers. This research benefits Bayesian researchers by providing the application of modeling causal relationships at latent variable level, and helps SEM researchers in extending their models for managerial prediction and diagnosis.     

A comment on “solving the puzzles of structural efficiency”

In a recent paper by Li and Cheng [Li,S.K., Cheng, Y.S., 2007. Solving the puzzles of structural efficiency. European Journal of Operational Research 180(2), 713–722], they developed the shadow price model to solve the existing puzzles of structural efficiency theoretically. However, we observe that the optimal shadow price vector in the shadow price model by Li and Cheng (2007) is not always unique. As a result, the decomposition of the structural efficiency is arbitrarily generated, depending on the shadow price vector we choose. Finally, an example with multiple inputs and outputs is used to illustrate the phenomenon.     

Earnouts in mergers and acquisitions: A game-theoretic option pricing approach

This paper presents a valuation approach for merger and acquisition (M&A) deals employing contingent earnouts. It is argued that these transactions have option-like features, and the paper uses a game-theoretic option approach to model the value of such claims. More specifically, the paper examines the impact of uncertainty on the optimal timing of M&A using earnouts, and it also investigates the impact of uncertainty on the terms of the earnout. Optimal earnout and initial payment combinations are endogenously derived from the model, and testable hypotheses are developed. The theoretical contribution of this paper is a dynamic decision-making model of the invest-to-learn option generated upon investment in an acquisition. The paper also offers practical implications for the design of acquisitions employing earnouts.     

A vague set based decision support approach for evaluating research funding programs

Scientific Research Assessment (SRA) is receiving increasing attention in both academic and industry. More and more organizations are recognizing the importance of SRA for the optimal use of scarce resources. In this paper, a vague set theory based decision support approach is proposed for SRA. Specifically, a family of parameterized S-OWA operator is developed for the aggregation of vague assessments. The proposed approach is introduced to evaluate the research funding programs of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). It provides a soft and expansive way to help the decision maker in NSFC to make his decisions. The proposed approach can also be used for some other agencies to make similar assessment.     

A new approach to firm evaluation

In this paper, a method is developed to evaluate firms on the basis of the risks they face. In accordance with the multi-factor method, risk is represented as a vector of sensitivities to unexpected changes of risk factors. Subsequently, the sensitivities themselves are related to firm characteristics.In addition, an application of the method to interfirm comparison is presented. This application is illustrated by a numerical example based on estimates concerning real data. Apart from this application, some other possible future applications are mentioned. Finally, some decision support tools are presented which may enhance the usefulness of the method in practice.     

Warehouse design: A structured approach

In spite of the importance of warehousing to the customer service and cost levels of many businesses, there is currently not a comprehensive systematic method for designing warehouses. In this paper, the current literature on the overall methodology of warehouse design is explored, together with the literature on tools and techniques used for specific areas of analysis. The general results from the literature have then been validated and refined with reference to warehouse design companies. The output is a general framework of steps, with specific tools and techniques that can be used for each step. This is intended to be of value to practitioners and to assist further research into the development of a more comprehensive methodology for warehouse design.     

Decision making under uncertainty: A semi-infinite programming approach

The subject of this paper is the formulation and discussion of a semi-infinite linear vector optimization problem which extends multiple objective linear programming problems to those with an infinite number of objective functions and constraints. Furthermore it generalizes in some way semi-infinite programming. Besides the statement of some immediately derived results which are related to known results in semi-infinite linear programming and vector optimization, the problem mentioned above is interpreted as a decision model, under risk or uncertainty containing continuous random variables. Thus we treat the case of an infinite number of occuring states of nature. These types of problems frequently occur within aspects of decision theory in management science.