A multicriteria approach to sustainable energy supply for the rural poor

Despite significant progress in energy technology, about two billion people worldwide, particularly the poor in rural areas of developing countries, have no access to electricity. Decision-making concerning the most appropriate energy technology for supplying these areas has been difficult; existing energy decision-support tools have been useful but are mostly incomplete. Trade-offs, as well as impacts that can be positive or negative, may emerge as a result of implementing modern forms of energy. These can affect both community’s livelihoods as well as the confidence of decision-makers in relation to alternative technologies. The paper discusses a newly designed multicriteria approach and its novel robustness analysis for selecting energy generation systems for the improvement of livelihoods in rural areas. The proposed methodology builds upon a sustainable rural livelihoods framework to address multiple interactions and calculate trade-offs aimed at boosting decision-makers’ confidence in the selected technologies. The methodology is tested via a case study in Colombia.     

A flexible multicriteria decision-making methodology to support the strategic management of Science,Technology and Innovation research funding programs

Research funding programs are a policy instrument utilized by governments to influence the innovation process. They are usually elaborated, launched and managed by research funding agencies. In order to select the most adequate research projects, agencies often rely on the peer review process.This paper introduces a methodology to support funding decisions based on the peer review process. The methodology involves the use of a multicriteria decision model to support the assessment, evaluation, prioritization and selection of applications, under a multi-step decision-making process, which fits into a strategic management cycle within the agency. The Multiattribute Value Theory, being considered under a Value Focused Thinking approach, provides a basis for the construction of the multicriteria decision model. The good practices in peer review and also a logical framework for program management are considered by the methodology.A pilot study, presented in the paper, involved a retrospective implementation of a peer review process in the context of a program launched by the Ministry for Science, Technology, Innovations and Communications and the National Council of Technological and Scientific Development, in Brazil. The methodology allowed a clear distinction of roles. The agency staff in the role of decision-makers was responsible for making value judgments on behalf of the agency. The experts, in the role of committee members and ad hoc reviewers, contributed with their expertise by providing objective assessments. Such assessments served as a basis for evaluating the applications, characterizing the possible portfolios, and can be considered as data in future program evaluation studies.     

A shift scheduling model for employees with different seniority levels and an application in healthcare

This paper addresses the problem of scheduling medical residents that arises in different clinical settings of a hospital. The residents are grouped according to different seniority levels that are specified by the number of years spent in residency training. It is required from the residents to participate in the delivery of patient care services directly by working weekday and weekend day shifts in addition to their regular daytime work. A monthly shift schedule is prepared to determine the shift duties of each resident considering shift coverage requirements, seniority-based workload rules, and resident work preferences. Due to the large number of constraints often conflicting, a multi-objective programming model has been proposed to automate the schedule generation process. The model is implemented on a real case in the pulmonary unit of a local hospital for a 6-month period using sequential and weighted methods. The results indicate that high quality solutions can be obtained within a few seconds compared to the manually prepared schedules expending considerable effort and time. It is also shown that the employed weighting procedure based on seniority levels performs much better compared to the preemptive method in terms of computational burden.     

A polynomial algorithm for the multicriteria cent-dian location problem

Given a network with several weights per node and several lengths per edge, we address the problem of locating a facility on the network such that the convex combinations of the center and median objective functions are minimized. Since we consider several weights and several lengths, various objective functions should be minimized, and hence we have to solve a multicriteria cent-dian location problem. A polynomial algorithm to characterize the efficient location point set on the network is developed. Furthermore, this model can generalize other problems such as the multicriteria center problem and the multicriteria median problem. Computing time results on random planar networks considering different combinations of weights and lengths are reported, which strengthen the polynomial complexity of the procedure.     

A multicriteria DSS for stock evaluation using fundamental analysis

The paper describes a multicriteria decision support system which aims at presenting an evaluation of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) stocks, on the basis of fundamental analysis. The system evaluates the stocks based on the method of fundamental analysis ratios, which is the most appropriate evaluation approach regarding investment decisions within a long term horizon. In addition to quantitative data deriving from fundamental analysis, the system uses qualitative data as well, in order to improve the reliability of the evaluation. The system introduced in this paper, utilises multicriteria analysis methodologies in order to rank the stocks by placing the best stock first and the worst last. Stock evaluation considers the specific characteristics of the potential investor, as well as his attitude towards undertaken risk. The final output of the system is four stock rankings which respond to four different criteria groups, depending on the type of accounting plan each listed company belongs to. The system incorporates a large volume of relevant information and operates in ‘real world conditions’ since its data are constantly updated. Finally, the system is intended for both institutional and private investors.     

Preference disaggregation and statistical learning for multicriteria decision support: A review

Disaggregation methods have become popular in multicriteria decision aiding (MCDA) for eliciting preferential information and constructing decision models from decision examples. From a statistical point of view, data mining and machine learning are also involved with similar problems, mainly with regard to identifying patterns and extracting knowledge from data. Recent research has also focused on the introduction of specific domain knowledge in machine learning algorithms. Thus, the connections between disaggregation methods in MCDA and traditional machine learning tools are becoming stronger. In this paper the relationships between the two fields are explored. The differences and similarities between the two approaches are identified, and a review is given regarding the integration of the two fields.     

A multi-criteria model for auditing a Predictive Maintenance Programme

Auditing tools can play a key role in the continuous improvement of maintenance policies, in particular to enhance predictive maintenance (PM). This paper proposes a multi-criteria model for auditing a Predictive Maintenance Programme (PMP) developed and implemented in the General Hospital of Ciudad Real (GHCR) in Spain. The model has a two-level structure, with top level auditing areas specified by second level auditing criteria on which the performance of the PMP should be appraised. This structure resulted from the analysis and discussion of an internal questionnaire to the management, technical and consulting staff of GHCR. This also guided the association of a performance scale with each criterion, describing several reference levels of accomplishment. Using the MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique) approach, a hierarchical additive value model was constructed, with criteria weights and value scales derived from staff judgments of comparison of different reference levels and profiles of performance. This model enables managers to measure the performance of the PMP and its added value for the hospital, not only against each audit criterion individually, but also on each area and in overall terms. Integrated in a management “tableau de bord”, the model outputs permit the identification of PMP deficiencies requiring urgent intervention and corrective measures for its continuous improvement.     

A real options approach to labour shifts planning under different service level targets

Firms that experience uncertainty in demand as well as challenging service levels face, among other things, the problem of managing employee shift numbers. Decisions regarding shift numbers often involve significant expansions or reductions in capacity, in response to changes in demand. In this paper, we quantify the impact of treating shifts in workforce expansion as investments, while considering required service level improvements. The decision to increase shifts, whether by employing temporary workers or hiring permanent employees, is one that involves significant risks. Traditional theories typically consider reversible investments, and thus do not capture the idiosyncrasies involved in shift management, in which costs are not fully reversible. In our study, by using real options theory, we quantify managers’ ability to consider this irreversibility, aiming to enable them to make shift decisions under conditions of uncertainty with the maximum level of flexibility. Our model aims to help managers make more accurate decisions with regard to shift expansion under service level targets, and to defer commitment until future uncertainties can be at least partially resolved. Overall, our investigation contributes to studies on the time required to introduce labour shift changes, while keeping the value of service level improvements in mind.     

Cost-efficiency analysis of weapon system portfolios

Decisions about the acquisition and maintenance of military equipment serve to build long-term capabilities in preparation of military conflicts. Typically, these decisions involve large investments which need to be supported by adequate cost-efficiency analyses. Yet the cost-efficiency analysis of weapon systems involves several challenges: for example, it is necessary to account for the possible interactions among different weapon systems; the relevance of several impact criteria; and the variety of combat situations in which these systems may be used. In this paper, we develop a portfolio methodology where these challenges are addressed by evaluating the cost-efficiencies of entire portfolios consisting of individual weapon systems. Our methodology accounts for possible interactions among systems by synthesizing impact assessment results that are either generated by combat simulation models or elicited from experts. It also admits incomplete preference information about the relative importance of different impact criteria. This methodology guides decision making by identifying which combinations of weapon systems are efficient with respect to multiple evaluation criteria in different combat situations at different cost levels. It can also be extended to settings where multiple combat situations are addressed simultaneously. The methodology is generic and can therefore be applied also in civilian settings when portfolios of activities (such as mitigation of harmful environmental emissions) may exhibit interactions.     

A stochastic programming model for scheduling call centers with global Service Level Agreements

We consider the issue of call center scheduling in an environment where arrivals rates are highly variable, aggregate volumes are uncertain, and the call center is subject to a global service level constraint. This paper is motivated by work with a provider of outsourced technical support services where call volumes exhibit significant variability and uncertainty. The outsourcing contract specifies a Service Level Agreement that must be satisfied over an extended period of a week or month. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer stochastic program. Our model has two distinctive features. Firstly, we combine the server sizing and staff scheduling steps into a single optimization program. Secondly, we explicitly recognize the uncertainty in period-by-period arrival rates. We show that the stochastic formulation, in general, calculates a higher cost optimal schedule than a model which ignores variability, but that the expected cost of this schedule is lower. We conduct extensive experimentation to compare the solutions of the stochastic program with the deterministic programs, based on mean valued arrivals. We find that, in general, the stochastic model provides a significant reduction in the expected cost of operation. The stochastic model also allows the manager to make informed risk management decisions by evaluating the probability that the Service Level Agreement will be achieved.     

Applying stochastic goal programming: A case study on water use planning

A decision support model to help public water agencies allocate surface water among farmers and authorize the use of groundwater for irrigation (especially in Mediterranean dry regions) is developed. This is a stochastic goal programming approach with two goals, the first concerning farm management while the other concerns environmental impact. Targets for both goals are established by the agency. This model yields three reduction factors to decide the different reductions in available surface water, standard groundwater and complementary groundwater that the agency should grant/authorize for irrigation, this depending on if it is a dry or wet year. In drought periods, the model recommends using more groundwater (in percentage) than in wet periods. A case study using year-to-year statistical information on available water over the period 1941–2005 is developed through numerical tables. A step-by-step computational process is presented in detail.     

Selecting and adapting weekly work schedules with working time accounts: A case of a retail clothing chain

A case of selection and adaptation of weekly work schedules is presented. Weekly work schedules in two franchises of an important retail clothing chain have to be established. Working time accounts are used: each week, an employee can owe the company a certain number of hours or vice versa. Nevertheless, over a certain threshold, the hours have to be paid for by the company and the account balance returns to zero. A minimum and desired level of capacity of employees is contemplated. Hierarchically, the planned capacity must attempt to reach the minimum level; then it must fit a desired level as much as possible. At present, the task of allocation and the final adjustment of schedules is done manually, which is difficult, ineffective and often inaccurate. The procedure proposed is divided into two phases. Firstly, a work schedule, selected from a list, is assigned to each worker; a mixed linear program, followed by a local optimization process, is used. In the second phase, the work schedules are modified according to predefined rules: if there is a surplus of capacity, work schedules are reduced, and if there is a shortage, work schedules are extended. The company considers the results to be satisfactory.     

A multicriteria facility location model for municipal solid waste management in North Greece

Up to 2002, Hellenic Solid Waste Management (SWM) policy specified that each of the country’s 54 prefectural governments plan its own SWM system. After 2002, this authority was shifted to the country’s 13 regions entirely. In this paper, we compare and contrast regional and prefectural SWM planning in Central Macedonia. To design the prefectural plan, we assume that each prefecture must be self-sufficient, and we locate waste facilities in each prefecture. In contrast, in the regional plan, we assume cooperation between prefectures and locate waste facilities to serve the entire region. We present a new multicriteria mixed-integer linear programming model to solve the location–allocation problem for municipal SWM at the regional level. We apply the lexicographic minimax approach to obtain a “fair” nondominated solution, a solution with all normalized objectives as equal to one another as possible. A solution to the model consists of locations and technologies for transfer stations, material recovery facilities, incinerators and sanitary landfills, as well as the waste flow between these locations.     

A flexible MILP model for multiple-shift workforce planning under annualized hours

Flexibility in workforce planning is one of the best ways to respond to fluctuations of the demand. This paper proposes a flexible mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model to solve a multiple-shift workforce planning problem under annualized working hours. The model takes into account laws and collective agreements that impose constraints on overtime and holidays. We consider possible gradual hiring of full time and partial time workers. Several objectives are pursued such as balancing the workload of the employees or minimizing the workforce size. Computational experiments on a real life problem demonstrate the effectiveness of the model.     

Linking stakeholder visions with resource allocation scenarios and multi-criteria assessment

Stakeholders and decision makers often develop visions of the ideal-type future as a response to complex societal problems and design their actions accordingly. However, these actors sometimes have a limited understanding as to whether their visions are feasible, what action is required and what the potential consequences are. This paper presents a methodology for linking visions with quantitative resource allocation scenarios which show different options in implementing the visions. The consequences are then appraised by multi-criteria assessment in order to find optimal and acceptable ways of implementation. As a result, stakeholders and decision makers learn about their visions and may even rethink them before decision making. The methodology thus couples visionary ideas with analytical information, providing a novel approach using quantitative techniques in a soft framework. The methodology is illustrated via a real-world case study concerning the future energy system in a small Swiss community.     

Modelling impacts of cropping systems: Demands and solutions for DEX methodology

Decision modelling of diverse groups of problems makes different requirements to the modelling methodologies and software. We present an actual decision problem and the required characteristics of corresponding decision models. The problem is from agronomy and addresses the ecological and economic impacts of cropping systems, with the focus on the differences between cropping systems with conventional crops and the ones with genetically modified crops. We describe the extensions of an existing DEX qualitative multi-attribute modelling methodology, which were made to cope with the challenges of the problem. The extensions address general hierarchical structures, probabilistic utility functions and numerical values of basic attributes. A new, freely available software tool called proDEX was implemented to support the extended methodology. In this paper we describe the problem of cropping system assessment, propose methodological extensions to DEX, and present the implementation of proDEX.     

Context matters: The impact of product type,emotional attachment and information overload on choice quality

We show that contextual variables in a Multiple Criteria Decision Making task influence choice quality. Based on an experiment we investigate the effects of product type, emotional attachment, and the amount and structure of information provided. We measured choice quality with nondominance, which is a desirable property of good choices. Regarding the product type effect, we distinguish between hedonic products that primarily are desirable due to affect, and utilitarian products, which are desirable because they are useful. When subjects with high emotional attachment make choices with hedonic products, they make fewer dominated choices than with utilitarian products. Further, we show that information overload is a relevant phenomenon in MCDM experiments. However, what matters is the quality of information, not just the quantity. When we add information that does not change the dominance relations between products, choice quality is not degraded.     

University objectives and socioeconomic results: A multicriteria measuring of alignment

Universities develop technology transfer mechanisms as the tools required to undertake missions committed to the socioeconomic environment. In this work a new proposal to measure the extent to which the goals or strategic objectives of a university are aligned with the results obtained through its technology transfer mechanisms with the local community is presented. This will enable to perform a diagnosis, by comparing the situation sought by the University Management team (expected case) with the actual one that derives from the application of the plans that implement the technology transfer mechanisms (real case). To achieve this, two different Multicriteria Decision Analysis techniques e.g. Analytic Network Process (ANP) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) will be used. Both the methodology and the MCDA techniques proposed need to be explained and clarified to the different experts who collaborate in the study, hence the facilitating process, key to the whole procedure, will be analysed in detail.The model proposed in this study is applied to analyse the case of the National University of Colombia – Bogotá Campus. Findings show that the following questions can be answered: (i) How much importance is granted by the University Management to the objectives of the University? (ii) To what extent are the objectives of the university fulfilled by the technology transfer mechanisms to the socioeconomic environment? (iii) Are the objectives of the university aligned with the results achieved through the technology transfer mechanisms?     

Branch-and-price for staff rostering: An efficient implementation using generic programming and nested column generation

We present a novel generic programming implementation of a column-generation algorithm for the generalized staff rostering problem. The problem is represented as a generalized set partitioning model, which is able to capture commonly occurring problem characteristics given in the literature. Columns of the set partitioning problem are generated dynamically by solving a pricing subproblem, and constraint branching in a branch-and-bound framework is used to enforce integrality. The pricing problem is formulated as a novel three-stage nested shortest path problem with resource constraints that exploits the inherent problem structure. A very efficient implementation of this pricing problem is achieved by using generic programming principles in which careful use of the C++ pre-processor allows the generator to be customized for the target problem at compile-time. As well as decreasing run times, this new approach creates a more flexible modeling framework that is well suited to handling the variety of problems found in staff rostering. Comparison with a more-standard run-time customization approach shows that speedups of around a factor of 20 are achieved using our new approach. The adaption to a new problem is simple and the implementation is automatically adjusted internally according to the new definition. We present results for three practical rostering problems. The approach captures all features of each problem and is able to provide high-quality solutions in less than 15 minutes. In two of the three instances, the optimal solution is found within this time frame.