A new approach of forecasting intermittent demand for spare parts inventories in the process industries

Accurate demand forecasting is of vital importance in inventory management of spare parts in process industries, while the intermittent nature makes demand forecasting for spare parts especially difficult. With the wide application of information technology in enterprise management, more information and data are now available to improve forecasting accuracy. In this paper, we develop a new approach for forecasting the intermittent demand of spare parts. The described approach provides a mechanism to integrate the demand autocorrelated process and the relationship between explanatory variables and the nonzero demand of spare parts during forecasting occurrences of nonzero demands over lead times. Two types of performance measures for assessing forecast methods are also described. Using data sets of 40 kinds of spare parts from a petrochemical enterprise in China, we show that our method produces more accurate forecasts of lead time demands than do exponential smoothing, Croston's method and Markov bootstrapping method.     

Simple,efficient heuristics for multi-item multi-location spare parts systems with lateral transshipments and waiting time constraints

This paper deals with the analysis of a multi-item, continuous review model of a multi-location inventory system of repairable spare parts, in which lateral and emergency shipments occur in response of stock-outs. The objective is to determine close-to-optimal stocking policies minimizing the total cost for inventory holding, lateral transshipments, and emergency shipments subject to a target level for the average waiting times at all locations. We structure the optimization problem as a combinatorial problem and four different heuristics are developed and evaluated in terms of their total costs and computation times. It is shown that the greedy-type heuristic has the best performance. A numerical study is carried out to look at the relative cost savings obtained from the use of multi-item approach and lateral transshipments.     

基于绩效保障模式的可修备件保障系统运营管理策略

基于绩效保障模式,设计了一个由备件仓库和维修车间组成的装备可修部件闭环保障系统,推导了备件库存水平状态的稳态概率分布,计算了可用度等几个保障绩效度量指标,建立了基于可用度约束的保障系统运作优化模型,并通过仿真分析探讨了保障系统运营管理策略问题。     

An inventory control system for spare parts at a refinery: An empirical comparison of different re-order point methods

Inventory control of spare parts is essential to many organizations, since excess inventory leads to high holding costs and stock outs can have a great impact on operations performance. This paper compares different re-order point methods for effective spare parts inventory control, motivated by a case study at a large oil refinery. Different demand modeling techniques and inventory policies are evaluated using real data.     

Managing Dynamic Inventory Systems with Product Returns: A Markov Decision Process

This paper presents a Markov decision process for managing inventory systems with Markovian customer demand and Markovian product returns. Employing functional analysis, we prove the existence of the optimal replenishment policies for the discounted-cost and average-cost problems when demand, returns, and cost functions are of polynomial growth. Our model generalizes literature results by integrating Markovian demand, Markovian returns, and positive replenishment lead times. In particular, the optimality of the reorder point, order-up-to policies is proved when the order cost consists of fixed setup and proportional cost components and the inventory surplus cost is convex. We then make model extensions to include different cost components and to differentiate returned products from new ones. Finally, we derive managerial insights for running integrated closed-loop supply chains. At the aggregate level, returns reduce effective demand while many structural characteristics of inventory models are intact. A simple heuristic for managing systems with returns is to still utilize literature results without returns, but effective demand is lower than customer demand.     

The Trended Inventory Lot Sizing Problem with Shortages Under a New Replenishment Policy

In the past few years, considerable attention has been given to the inventory lot sizing problem with trended demand over a fixed horizon. The traditional replenishment policy is to avoid shortages in the last cycle. Each of the remaining cycles starts with a replenishment and inventory is held for a certain period which is followed by a period of shortages. A new replenishment policy is to start each cycle with shortages and after a period of shortages a replenishment should be made. In this paper, we show that this new type of replenishment policy is superior to the traditional one. We further propose four heuristic procedures that follow the new replenishment policy. These are the constant demand approximation method, the equal cycle length heuristic, the extended Silver approach, and the extended least cost solution procedure. We also examine the cost and computation time performances of these heuristic procedures through an empirical study. The number of test problems solved to optimality, average and maximum cost deviation from optimum were used as measures of cost performance. The results of the 10 000 test problems reveal that the extended least cost approach is most cost effective.     

An Approximation of a Markov Decision Process for Resource Planning

This study presents an approximation of a Markovian decision process to calculate resource planning policies for environments with probabilistic resource demand. These policies provide a means of periodic determination of the quantity of resources required to be available. Managers may also use these approximation models to perform the sensitivity analysis of resource demand and the cost/reward parameters. The decision policy can be applied to many resource planning situations including manufacturing or construction equipment purchasing or leasing, airline capacity, professional services staffing, and computer/management information systems capacity.     

Optimising a general repair kit problem with a service constraint

Field services are a particular type of after-sales service performed at the customer’s location where technicians repair malfunctioning machines. The inventory decisions about which spare part types to take to the repair site and in what quantities is called the repair kit problem. This problem is characterized by an order-based performance measure since a customer is only satisfied when all required spare parts are available to fix the machine. As a result, the service level in the decision making process is defined as a job fill rate. In this paper we derive a closed-form expression for the expected service level and total costs for the repair kit problem in a general setting, where multiple units of each part type can be used in a multi-period problem. Such an all-or-nothing strategy is a new characteristic to investigate, but commonly used in practice. Namely, items are only taken from the inventory when all items to perform the repair are available in the right quantity. We develop a new algorithm to determine the contents of the repair kit both for a service and cost model while incorporating this new expression for the job fill rate. We show that the algorithm finds solutions which differ on average 0.2% from optimal costs. We perform a case study to test the performance of the algorithm in practice. Our approach results in service level improvements of more than 30% against similar holding costs.     

Forecasting for the ordering and stock-holding of spare parts

A modern military organization like the UK's Royal Air Force is dependent on readily available spare parts for in-service aircraft in order to maximize operational capability. A large proportion of spare parts are known to have an intermittent or slow-moving demand pattern, presenting particular problems as far as forecasting and inventory control are concerned. In this paper, we use extensive demand and replenishment lead-time data to assess the practical value of forecasting models put forward in the literature for addressing these problems. We use an analytical method for classifying the consumable inventory into smooth, irregular, slow-moving and intermittent demand patterns. Recent forecasting developments are compared against more commonly used methods across the identified demand patterns. One recently developed method, a modification to Croston's method referred to as the approximation method, is observed to provide significant reductions in the value of the stock-holdings required to attain a specified service level for all demand patterns.     

Performance analysis for assemble-to-order systems with general renewal arrivals and random batch demands

We study multi-product and multi-item assemble-to-order systems under general assumptions on demand patterns and replenish leadtime distributions. We only assume that the demand process of each product being a renewal process, and the replenish leadtimes follow general distributions. Based upon techniques from renewal theory, we developed procedures for approximating key performance measures of these inventory systems, such as average inventory and immediate order fill rate. We also obtain qualitative results that reveal the impacts of changes in demand patterns and leadtime variability upon the performance of the systems.     

Optimal lateral transshipment policies for a two location inventory problem with multiple demand classes

We consider an inventory model for spare parts with two stockpoints, providing repairable parts for a critical component of advanced technical systems. As downtime costs for these systems are expensive, ready–for–use spare parts are kept in stock to be able to quickly respond to a breakdown of a system. We allow for lateral transshipments of parts between the stockpoints upon a demand arrival. Each stockpoint faces demands from multiple demand classes. We are interested in the optimal lateral transshipment policy. There are three ways in which a demand can by satisfied: from own stock, via a lateral transshipment, or via an emergency procedure. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we characterize and prove the structure of the optimal policy, that is, the policy for satisfying the demands which minimizes the average operating costs of the system. This optimal policy is a threshold type policy, with state-dependent thresholds at each stockpoint for every demand class. We show a partial ordering in these thresholds in the demand classes. In addition, we derive conditions under which the so-called hold back and complete pooling policies are optimal, two policies that are often assumed in the literature. Furthermore, we study several model extensions which fit in the same modeling framework.     

An interactive method for inventory control with fuzzy lead-time and dynamic demand

Normally, the real-world inventory control problems are imprecisely defined and human interventions are often required to solve these decision-making problems. In this paper, a realistic inventory model with imprecise demand, lead-time and inventory costs have been formulated and an inventory policy is proposed to minimize the cost using man–machine interaction. Here, demand increases with time at a decreasing rate. The imprecise parameters of lead-time, inventory costs and demand are expressed through linear/non-linear membership functions. These are represented by different types of membership functions, linear or quadratic, depending upon the prevailing supply condition and marketing environment. The imprecise parameters are first transformed into corresponding interval numbers and then following the interval mathematics, the objective function for average cost is changed into respective multi-objective functions. These functions are minimized and solved for a Pareto-optimum solution by interactive fuzzy decision-making procedure. This process leads to man–machine interaction for optimum and appropriate decision acceptable to the decision maker’s firm. The model is illustrated numerically and the results are presented in tabular forms.     

Modeling inventory routing problems in supply chains of high consumption products

Given a distribution center and a set of sales-points with their demand rates, the objective of the inventory routing problem (IRP) is to determine a distribution plan that minimizes fleet operating and average total distribution and inventory holding costs without causing a stock-out at any of the sales-points during a given planning horizon. We propose a new model for the long-term IRP when demand rates are stable and economic order quantity-like policies are used to manage inventories of the sales-points. The proposed model extends the concept of vehicle routes (tours) to vehicle multi-tours. To solve the nonlinear mixed integer formulation of this problem, a column generation based approximation method is suggested. The resulting sub-problems are solved using a savings-based approximation method. The approach is tested on randomly generated problems with different settings of some critical factors to compare our model using multi-tours as basic constructs to the model using simple tours as basic constructs.     

On Approximating Lead Time Demand Distributions Using the Generalised λ-type Distribution

In this paper the use of the generalised λ-type distribution (GLD) is proposed for the analysis of standard inventory problems. Using this distribution to approximate the lead time demand distribution we analyse the generalised newsboy problem and a (Q, r) policy. The standard inventory measures like optimal order size, reorder level, average demand lost, etc. are obtained under the GLD and are compared with those given by Shore's approximation and also under exact distributional assumptions. Through a numerical study the various inventory measures are compared using the GLD and Shore's approximation with the exact distributions. The comparison reveals that the GLD approximation is better suited than Shore's approximation to model the lead time demand.     

Short-term liner ship fleet planning with container transshipment and uncertain container shipment demand

This paper proposes a short-term liner ship fleet planning problem by taking into account container transshipment and uncertain container shipment demand. Given a liner shipping service network comprising a number of ship routes, the problem is to determine the numbers and types of ships required in the fleet and assign each of these ships to a particular ship route to maximize the expected value of the total profit over a short-term planning horizon. These decisions have to be made prior to knowing the exact container shipment demand, which is affected by some unpredictable and uncontrollable factors. This paper thus formulates this realistic short-term planning problem as a two-stage stochastic integer programming model. A solution algorithm, integrating the sample average approximation with a dual decomposition and Lagrangian relaxation approach, is then proposed. Finally, a numerical example is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and solution algorithm.     

Inventory control for point-of-use locations in hospitals

Most inventory management systems at hospital departments are characterised by lost sales, periodic reviews with short lead times, and limited storage capacity. We develop two types of exact models that deal with all these characteristics. In a capacity model, the service level is maximised subject to a capacity restriction, and in a service model the required capacity is minimised subject to a service level restriction. We also formulate approximation models applicable for any lost-sales inventory system (cost objective, no lead time restrictions etc). For the capacity model, we develop a simple inventory rule to set the reorder levels and order quantities. Numerical results for this inventory rule show an average deviation of 1% from the optimal service levels. We also embed the single-item models in a multi-item system. Furthermore, we compare the performance of fixed order size replenishment policies and (R,?s,?S) policies.     

Mathematical programming for network revenue management revisited

Mathematical programming models for airline seat inventory control provide booking limits and bid-prices for all itineraries and fare classes. E.L. Williamson [Airline network seat inventory control: methodologies and revenue impacts, Ph.D. thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 1992] finds that simple deterministic approximation methods based on average demand often outperform more advanced probabilistic heuristics. We argue that this phenomenon is due to a booking process that includes nesting of the fare classes, which is ignored in the modeling phase. The differences in the performance between these approximations are studied using a stochastic programming model that includes the deterministic model as a special case. Our study carefully examines the trade-off between computation time and the aggregation level of demand uncertainty with examples of a multi-leg flight and a single-hub network.     

Service differentiation in spare parts inventory management

The contemporary after-sales market is of increasing importance. One of the features required by the market is to provide differentiated service levels to different groups of customers. We use critical levels as a means to offer differentiation. Critical level policies aim to exploit the differences in target service levels by inventory rationing. In our multi-item single-location spare parts inventory model, we aim to minimize the spare parts provisioning cost, that is inventory holding and transportation cost, under the condition that aggregate mean waiting time constraints for all customer groups are met. In a computational experiment and a case study with data from a company in the semiconductor supplier industry, we show that significant cost reductions can be obtained when critical level policies are used instead of base stock policies (ie policies without critical levels).     

Periodic control of intermittent demand items: theory and empirical analysis

In this paper we propose a modification to the standard forecasting, periodic order-up-to-level inventory control approach to dealing with intermittent demand items, when the lead-time length is shorter than the average inter-demand interval. In particular, we develop an approach that relies upon the employment of separate estimates of the inter-demand intervals and demand sizes, when demand occurs, directly for stock control purposes rather than first estimating mean demand and then feeding the results in the stock control procedure. The empirical performance of our approach is assessed by means of analysis on a large demand data set from the Royal Air Force (RAF, UK). Our work allows insights to be gained on the interactions between forecasting and stock control as well as on demand categorization-related issues for forecasting and inventory management purposes.     

Trade-off between inventory and repair capacity in spare part networks

The availability of repairable technical systems depends on the availability of (repairable) spare parts, to be influenced by (1) inventory levels and (2) repair capacity. In this paper, we present a procedure for simultaneous optimisation of these two factors. Our method is based on a modification of the well-known VARI-METRIC procedure for determining near-optimal spare part inventory levels and results for multi-class, multi-server queuing systems representing repair shops. The modification is required to avoid non-convexity problems in the optimisation procedure. To include part-time and overtime working, we allow for a non-integer repair capacity. To this end, we develop a simple approximation for queuing systems with a non-integer number of servers. Our computational experiments show that the near-optimal utilisation rate of the repair servers is usually high (0.80–0.98) and depends mainly on the relative price of the servers compared with inventory items. Further, the size of the repair shop (the minimal number of servers required for a stable system) plays its part. We also show that our optimisation procedure is robust for the choice of the step size for the server capacity.