Minimax and risk averse multistage stochastic programming

In this paper we study relations between the minimax, risk averse and nested formulations of multistage stochastic programming problems. In particular, we discuss conditions for time consistency of such formulations of stochastic problems. We also describe a connection between law invariant coherent risk measures and the corresponding sets of probability measures in their dual representation. Finally, we discuss a minimax approach with moment constraints to the classical inventory model.     

A dynamic programming approach to adjustable robust optimization

In this paper we consider the adjustable robust approach to multistage optimization, for which we derive dynamic programming equations. We also discuss this from the point of view of risk averse stochastic programming. We consider as an example a robust formulation of the classical inventory model and show that, like for the risk neutral case, a basestock policy is optimal.     

Optimal risk sharing with general deviation measures

An optimal risk sharing problem for agents with utility functionals depending only on the expected value and a deviation measure of an uncertain payoff has been studied. The agents are assumed to have no initial endowments. A set of Pareto-optimal solutions to the problem has been characterized, and a particular solution from the set has been suggested. If an equilibrium exists, the suggested solution coincides with an equilibrium solution. As special cases, the optimal risk sharing problem in the form of expected gain maximization and the problem with a linear mean-deviation utility functional including averse and coherent risk measures have been addressed. In the case of expected gain maximization, the existence of an equilibrium has been shown.     

Living on the edge: how risky is it to operate at the limit of the tolerated risk?

This paper studies some of the implicit risks associated with strategies followed by a risk averse investor who maximizes the expected value of his final wealth, subject to a risk tolerance constraint characterized in terms of a convex risk measure such as Conditional Value-at-Risk. Embedded probability measures are uncovered using duality theory; these are used to assess the probability of surpassing a standard Value-at-Risk threshold. Using one of these embedded probabilities, a closed-form measure of the financial cost of hedging the loss exposure associated to the optimal strategies is derived and shown to be, under certain assumptions, a coherent measure of risk.     

Customer differentiated end-of-life inventory problem

This paper deals with the service parts end-of-life inventory problem in a circumstance that demands for service parts are differentiated. Customer differentiation might be due to criticality of the demand or based on various service contracts. In both cases, we model the problem as a finite horizon stochastic dynamic program and characterize the structure of the optimal inventory policy. We show that when customers are differentiated based on the demand criticality then the optimal structure consists of time and state dependent threshold levels for inventory rationing. In case of differentiation based on service contracts, we show that in addition to rationing thresholds we also need contract extension thresholds by which the system decides whether to offer an extension to an expiring contract or not. By numerical experiments in both cases, we identify the value of incorporating such decisions in service parts end-of-life inventory management with customer differentiation. Moreover, we show that these decisions not only result in cost efficiency but also decrease the risk of part obsolescence drastically.     

Optimal Solutions in the Multi-location Inventory System with Transshipments

We consider a single-period multi-location inventory system where inventory choices at each location are centrally coordinated. Transshipments are allowed as recourse actions in order to reduce the cost of shortage or surplus inventory after demands are realized. This problem has not been solved to optimality before for more than two locations with general cost parameters. In this paper we present a simple and intuitive model that enables us to characterize optimal inventory and transshipment policies for three and four locations as well. The insight gained from these analytical results leads us to examine the optimality conditions of a greedy transshipment policy. We show that this policy will be optimal for two and three locations. For the n location model we characterize the necessary and sufficient conditions on the cost structure for which the greedy transshipment policy will be optimal.      

On stochastic auctions in risk-averse electricity markets with uncertain supply

This paper studies risk in a stochastic auction which facilitates the integration of renewable generation in electricity markets. We model market participants who are risk averse and reflect their risk aversion through coherent risk measures. We uncover a closed form characterization of a risk-averse generator’s optimal pre-commitment behaviour for a given real-time policy, both with and without risk trading.     

Optimal execution with weighted impact functions: a quadratic programming approach

In this paper, we develop optimal trading strategies for a risk averse investor by minimizing the expected cost and the risk of execution. Here we consider a law of motion for price which uses a convex combination of temporary and permanent market impact. In the special case of unconstrained problem for a risk neutral investor, we obtain a closed form solution for optimal trading strategies by using dynamic programming. For a general problem, we use a quadratic programming approach to get approximate dynamic optimal trading strategies. Further, numerical examples of optimal execution strategies are provided for illustration purposes.     

Inventory rationing for the News-Vendor problem with a drop-shipping option

We consider a single-period inventory model for a bricks-and-clicks business. Store inventory can be used to fulfill both store demand and internet demand. Drop-shipping is used as an additional option for internet sale. We analyze two rationing policies for store inventory: a threshold policy and a fixed-portion policy. We formulate the expected profit for both and prove concavity. There exists an optimal order quantity for store inventory and an optimal stock rationing level below which the manager starts to use drop-shipping for internet demand. Numerical examples show that considering the rationing problem for the single-period inventory model, which is ignored in some earlier works, can result in remarkable differences.     

Analysis of a two-party supply chain with random disruptions

We study a continuous-review inventory problem of a two-echelon supply chain with random disruptions, identify properties of the optimal cost function, compare the optimal order quantity with the classical economic order quantity, analyze the sensitivity of the optimal solution, and explore the conditions under which zero-inventory ordering policy is preferred.     

Demand selection decisions for a multi-echelon inventory distribution system

In this paper, we study an integrated demand selection and multi-echelon inventory control problem that generalizes the classical deterministic single distribution centre (DC) multi-retailer model by incorporating demand selection decisions. In addition to the ordering and holding cost components, a concave operating cost of the DC and a capacity on the total market demand served are also considered. For given revenue and cost parameters, the problem is to determine which sets of demand to fulfill and which multi-echelon inventory control policy to implement so as to maximize the net profit. We show that the problem can be formulated as a nonlinear discrete optimization model. We analyse the structural properties of the model and, based on these, outline an approach to solve the model efficiently. We also present some interesting managerial insights obtained from the numerical experiments.     

Optimal reinsurance with general risk measures

This paper studies the optimal reinsurance problem when risk is measured by a general risk measure. Necessary and sufficient optimality conditions are given for a wide family of risk measures, including deviation measures, expectation bounded risk measures and coherent measures of risk. The optimality conditions are used to verify whether the classical reinsurance contracts (quota-share, stop-loss) are optimal essentially, regardless of the risk measure used. The paper ends by particularizing the findings, so as to study in detail two deviation measures and the conditional value at risk.     

模糊随机需求的连续盘点存储策略研究

考虑到需求的模糊随机性,建立模糊随机需求情况下连续盘点存储策略的模糊随机成本模型。利用模糊随机变量的期望值理论,推导出了其成本期望值模型的解析表达式,进而给出了最优再订货点所属区间的判别条件以及最优再订货点和经济订货量的计算式;基于此,设计了一模糊随机需求的连续盘点最优存储策略算法。最后结合数值算例,分析了模糊随机需求概率分布及缺货成本对最优存储策略的影响。     

Medium range optimization of copper extraction planning under uncertainty in future copper prices

Deterministic mine planning models along a time horizon have proved to be very effective in supporting decisions on sequencing the extraction of material in copper mines. Some of these models have been developed for, and used successfully by CODELCO, the Chilean state copper company. In this paper, we wish to consider the uncertainty in a very volatile parameter of the problem, namely, the copper price along a given time horizon. We represent the uncertainty by a multistage scenario tree. The resulting stochastic model is then converted into a mixed 0–1 Deterministic Equivalent Model using a compact representation. We first introduce the stochastic model that maximizes the expected profit along the time horizon over all scenarios (i.e., as in a risk neutral environment). We then present several approaches for risk management in a risk averse environment. Specifically, we consider the maximization of the Value-at-Risk and several variants of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (one of them is new), the maximization of the expected profit minus the weighted probability of having an undesirable scenario in the solution provided by the model, and the maximization of the expected profit subject to stochastic dominance constraints recourse-integer for a set of profiles given by the pairs of target profits and bounds on either the probability of failure or the expected profit shortfall. We present an extensive computational experience on the actual problem, by comparing the risk neutral approach, the tested risk averse strategies and the performance of the traditional deterministic approach that uses the expected value of the uncertain parameters. The results clearly show the advantage of using the risk neutral strategy over the traditional deterministic approach, as well as the advantage of using any risk averse strategy over the risk neutral one.     

SUSTAINABLE YIELDS IN FISHERIES: UNCERTAINTY,RISK‐AVERSION,AND MEAN‐VARIANCE ANALYSIS

Abstract We consider a model of a fishery in which the dynamics of the unharvested fish population are given by the stochastic logistic growth equation Similar to the classical deterministic analogon, we assume that the fishery harvests the fish population following a constant effort strategy. In the first step, we derive the effort level that leads to maximum expected sustainable yield, which is understood as the expectation of the equilibrium distribution of the stochastic dynamics. This replaces the nonzero fixed point in the classical deterministic setup. In the second step, we assume that the fishery is risk averse and that there is a tradeoff between expected sustainable yield and uncertainty measured in terms of the variance of the equilibrium distribution. We derive the optimal constant effort harvesting strategy for this problem. In the final step, we consider an approach that we call the mean‐variance analysis to sustainable fisheries. Similar as in the now classical mean‐variance analysis in finance, going back to Markowitz [1952] , we study the problem of maximizing expected sustainable yields under variance constraints, and with this, minimizing the variance, e.g., risk, under guaranteed minimum expected sustainable yields. We derive explicit formulas for the optimal fishing effort in all four problems considered and study the effects of uncertainty, risk aversion, and mean reversion speed on fishing efforts.     

Dynamic lot-sizing with setup cost reduction

One of the fundamental tenets of the Just-in-Time (JIT) manufacturing philosophy is that reduction or even elimination of inventory conserves valuable resources and reduces wasteful spending. In many cases, to achieve inventory reductions requires investment in reduction of setup costs. For this reason, certain proposals for incorporating means for reducing setup costs into classical production-inventory models have been offered in recent years. This article considers a dynamic lot-sizing model M where the values of the setup costs can be reduced by various amounts depending upon the level of funds R committed to this reduction. We show that for each fixed value of R, the model can be represented as a shortest path problem. By minimizing the optimal value function V(R) of the shortest path problem over R, model M can, in theory, be solved. In practice, the viability of this approach depends crucially upon the properties of the function V. Since these properties depend upon the nature of the setup cost function K used in model M, we analyze how V varies as K varies. This allows us to propose two exact, finite algorithms for solving model M, one for the case when K is a concave function, the other for the case when K is convex. Computational results for the convex case are presented. The problems solved demonstrate that, in practice, setup cost reductions chosen according to model M have the potential to significantly reduce both inventory levels and total costs.     

Supply chain models for an assembly system with preprocessing of raw materials

In this paper, we investigate the material procurement and delivery policy in a production system where raw materials enter into the assembly line from two different flow channels. The system encompasses batch production process in which the finished product demand is approximately constant for an infinite planning horizon. Two distinct types of raw materials are passed through the assembly line before to convert them into the finished product. Of the two types of raw materials, one type requires preprocessing inside the facility before the assembly operation and other group is fed straightway in the assembly line. The conversion factors are assigned to raw materials to quantify the raw material batch size required. To analyze such a system, we formulate a nonlinear cost function to aggregate all the costs of the inventories, ordering, shipping and deliveries. An algorithm using the branch and bound concept is provided to find the best integer values of the optimal solutions. The result shows that the optimal procurement and delivery policy minimizes the expected total cost of the model. Using a test problem, the inventory requirements at each stage of production and their corresponding costs are calculated. From the analysis, it is shown that the rate and direction change of total cost is turned to positive when delivery rates per batch reaches close to the optimal value and the minimum cost is achieved at the optimal delivery rate. Also, it is shown that total incremental cost is monotonically increasing, if the finished product batch size is increased, and if, inventory cost rates are increased. We examine a set of numerical examples that reveal the insights into the procurement-delivery policy and the performance of such an assembly type inventory model.     

Classical and Impulse Control for the Optimization of Dividend and Proportional Reinsurance Policies with Regime Switching

We consider the optimal proportional reinsurance and dividend strategy. The surplus process is modeled by the classical compound Poisson risk model with regime switching. Considering a class of utility functions, the object of the insurer is to select the reinsurance and dividend strategy that maximizes the expected total discounted utility of the shareholders until ruin. By adapting the techniques and methods of stochastic control, we study the quasi-variational inequality for this classical and impulse control problem and establish a verification theorem. We show that the optimal value function is characterized as the unique viscosity solution of the corresponding quasi-variational inequality.     

A partial-postponement decision cost model

A number of factors, including product proliferation and increased customer service-level requirements, have led many companies to consider adopting postponement as a supply chain strategy. Packaging postponement is the process of delaying packaging of a common item into a final product configuration until the customer order is received. For a given product, a portion of demand is known with a high level of certainty and would not benefit from postponement. The remaining portion of demand is known with little certainty and would benefit from delaying the differentiating stage of the operation until demand is known. We develop a single-period, two-product, order-up-to cost model to aid in setting the levels of finished-goods inventory and postponement capacity. Minimum-cost optimal solutions to inventory levels and capacity are obtained by solving the derived analytical expressions using a non-linear programming formulation. We examine the sensitivity of the model to different levels of the model parameters to generate managerial insights beyond those of previous work. We show that changing product value, packaging cost, cost of postponement, holding cost, fill rate, and demand correlation can decrease expected total cost and increase postponement capacity.     

Coordinating inventory control and pricing strategies: The continuous review model

We analyze an infinite horizon, single product, continuous review model in which pricing and inventory decisions are made simultaneously and ordering cost includes a fixed cost. We show that there exists a stationary (s,S) inventory policy maximizing the expected discounted or expected average profit under general conditions.