基于泊松跳跃的最佳并购时机比较研究

基于最优停时理论、实物期权方法、平滑粘贴条件和道格拉斯生产函数转换,通过时机模型构建与求解,比较分析了无泊松跳跃和有泊松跳跃两种情形下的最佳并购时机。研究结果显示,驱动企业并购的主要是协同效应;企业并购存在仅与并购双方相对股价有关的最佳并购时机及其对应的并购区域;泊松跳跃使并购阈值下界和并购阈值上界右移,并购区域变宽,选择最佳并购时机需要更多信息;在相对股价进入并购区域时,即可实施并购,否则,主并方的最佳策略为持有等待期权,即继续等待。研究结论可为企业选择最佳并购时机,尤其是国有企业选择产权转让的最佳时机提供直接理论指导和实践借鉴。     

Formulation and analysis of horizontal mergers among oligopolistic firms with insights into the merger paradox: a supply chain network perspective

In this paper, we consider oligopolistic firms with supply chain networks who are involved in the production, storage, and distribution of a homogeneous product to demand markets and explore what has become known in the literature as the “merger paradox.” We present the oligopolistic supply chain network equilibrium model associated with the competing firms before the horizontal mergers and also develop the supply chain network optimization model post the complete merger. In addition, we develop the model in which only a subset of the firms in the industry merge. The governing concept of the competing firms is that of Cournot–Nash equilibrium. We utilize finite-dimensional variational inequality theory for the formulation, analysis, and solution of both the pre and the post-merger supply chain network problems. We provide numerical examples for which we compute the total costs, the total revenues, as well as the profits obtained for the firms pre and post the mergers for a variety of distinct oligopoly problems. The generality of the network models and the flexibility of the computational approach, which yields closed form expressions for the product flows at each iteration, allows us to obtain deeper insights into the merger paradox.     

Estimation of potential gains from bank mergers: A novel two-stage cost efficiency DEA model

This paper develops a novel two-stage cost efficiency model to estimate and decompose the potential gains from Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As). In this model, a hypothetical DMU is defined as a combination of two or more candidate DMUs. The hypothetical DMU would surpass the traditional Production Possibility Set (PPS). In order to solve the problem, a Merger Production Possibility Set (PPS_M) is constructed. The model minimizes the total cost of the hypothetical DMU while maintaining its outputs at the current level, and estimates the overall merger efficiency by comparing its minimal total cost with its actual cost. Moreover, the overall merger efficiency could be decomposed into technical efficiency, harmony efficiency, and scale efficiency. We show that the model can be extended to a two-stage structure and these efficiencies can be decomposed to both sub-systems. To show the usefulness of the proposed approach, we applied it to a real dataset of top 20 most competitive Chinese City Commercial Banks (CCBs). We concluded that (1) there exist considerably potential gains for the proposed merged banks. (2) It is also shown that the main impact on potential merger gains are from technical and harmony efficiency. (3) As an interesting result we found that the scale effect works against the merger, indicating that it is not favorable for a full-scale merger.     

An interval portfolio selection problem based on regret function

Recent mergers in the banking industry have often generated disappointing shareholder returns. Delays in implementing potential operating savings and realizing benefits of scale economies may be one reason these mergers have disappointing returns. Using data envelopment analysis (DEA), we analyze a 200-branch network formed in a merger of four banks. The operating efficiency of each branch is benchmarked against “best-practice” branches in the combined merged bank as well as “best practice” branches within each pre-merger bank. This analysis identified opportunities to reduce branch operating costs by 22 percent for the entire merged bank. In contrast, the cost savings opportunity is under seven percent when analyzed within each pre-merger bank.These findings suggest benchmarking across the entire merged bank to identify the best practices bank-wide can generate added savings. However, in this bank merger, these merger benefits were not realized until four years after the merger. Interviews with key players in the merged bank indicate that the bank deferred realizing these benefits because of political pressures, personnel integration issues, system integration issues, and financial components of the merger such as restructuring reserves and the purchase price. These causes suggest areas where shareholders can and should demand more rapid improvement in performance of bank mergers and areas for future corporate merger research.     

Strategic Acquisition Management: A Multi-Objective Synergistic Approach

Of all the strategic planning and decision-making a corporation undertakes, a merger or acquisition of another company is one of the most important and complex. The complexity is due not only to the volume of accounting, finance, marketing and management factors that need to be considered, but also to synergistic factors that are not adequately incorporated in current acquisition planning models. This paper presents a goal-programming modelling approach to deal with the problem of strategic acquisition planning for mergers, acquisitions or joint ventures. A goal-programming model is developed and applied to illustrate its use in acquisition decision-making. The results of the paper demonstrate the model's informational efficiency of application and unique ability to include synergistic decision-making factors.     

On the semilocal convergence of the Halley method using recurrent functions

We provide new semilocal convergence results for the Halley method in order to approximate a locally unique solution of a nonlinear equation in a Banach space setting. Our sufficient convergence conditions can be weaker than before, where as the error bounds on the distances involved are finer. Our first approach uses a Kantorovich-type analysis. The second approach uses our new idea of recurrent functions. A comparison between the two approaches is also given. A numerical example further validating the theoretical results is also provided in this study.     

不完全信息下考虑效率和规模的多时点并购决策

针对企业并购过程中存在不完全信息和多时点信息的问题,提出了一种考虑效率和规模的企业并购决策方法. 通过证据推理集结并购双方的不完全的、多时点的评价信息,利用\,DEA\,方法判断合并企业规模是否过大,并筛选出可行并购方案,再根据合并企业竞争型并购交叉效率高低决策最佳并购目标. 最后算例分析说明了方法的有效性和实用性.     

Earnouts in mergers and acquisitions: A game-theoretic option pricing approach

This paper presents a valuation approach for merger and acquisition (M&A) deals employing contingent earnouts. It is argued that these transactions have option-like features, and the paper uses a game-theoretic option approach to model the value of such claims. More specifically, the paper examines the impact of uncertainty on the optimal timing of M&A using earnouts, and it also investigates the impact of uncertainty on the terms of the earnout. Optimal earnout and initial payment combinations are endogenously derived from the model, and testable hypotheses are developed. The theoretical contribution of this paper is a dynamic decision-making model of the invest-to-learn option generated upon investment in an acquisition. The paper also offers practical implications for the design of acquisitions employing earnouts.     

Search during decision making

Nearly four hundred non-routine organizational decisions were investigated to discover search approaches––determining the frequency of use and success of each search approach uncovered. A “search approach” is made up of a direction and a means to uncover solution ideas. Direction indicates desired results and it can be either implicit or explicit, with an explicit direction offering either a problem or a goal-like target. Solutions can be uncovered by opportunity, bargaining, and chance as well as by rational approaches. Defining a search approach as a direction coupled with a means of search, search approaches were linked with indicators of success, measured by the decision's adoption, value and timeliness, noting frequency. A rational, goal-directed, search approach was more apt to produce successful outcomes. Bargaining with stakeholders to uncover solutions was always combined some of the search approaches in this study, and this merger improved the prospects of success. Searches with an opportunistic or chance (emergent opportunity) features and rational searches with a problem target were more apt to produce unsuccessful outcomes. The means used to come up with a solution had less bearing on success than did the type of direction, with goal-directed searches leading to the best outcomes. Each search approach is discussed to reveal best practices and to offer suggestions to improve practice.     

Perturbation analysis and optimization of queueing networks

A new time-domain-based approach is developed in this paper for the perturbation analysis of queueing networks. We show that, by observing a single sample path realization of the network trajectory, we can derive sensitivity information of the throughput of the system with respect to various parameters. This information can then be used for the optimization of queueing networks. Numerous experiments as well as analytical results demonstrating the validity of this new approach are given and discussed.     

Scale directional distance function and its application to the measurement of eco-efficiency in the manufacturing sector

Directional distance function (DDF) is a recognized technique for measuring efficiency while incorporating undesirable outputs. This approach allows for desirable outputs to be expanded while undesirable outputs are contracted simultaneously. A drawback of the DDF approach is that the direction vector to the production boundary is fixed arbitrarily, which may not provide the best efficiency measure. Therefore, this study extends the previous framework of efficiency analysis to introduce a new slacks-based measure of efficiency called the scale directional distance function (SDDF) approach. This new approach determines the optimal direction to the frontier for each unit of analysis and provides dissimilar expansion and contraction factors to achieve a more reasonable eco-efficiency score. This new approach is employed to measure the eco-efficiency of the Malaysian manufacturing sector. In addition, the paper demonstrates the use of the new approach to establish target values for the reduction/expansion of outputs in order for the inefficient DMUs to achieve full eco-efficiency. The results indicate that Melaka, Pulau Pinang, Negeri Sembilan, Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan have attained full eco-efficiency while Terengganu is the least eco-efficient. The overall eco-efficiency of the manufacturing sector in Malaysia is 80.5 % with wide variations across the states.     

A new spectral-homotopy analysis method for solving a nonlinear second order BVP

A modification of the homotopy analysis method (HAM) for solving nonlinear second-order boundary value problems (BVPs) is proposed. The implementation of the new approach is demonstrated by solving the Darcy–Brinkman–Forchheimer equation for steady fully developed fluid flow in a horizontal channel filled with a porous medium. The model equation is solved concurrently using the standard HAM approach and numerically using a shooting method based on the fourth order Runge–Kutta scheme. The results demonstrate that the new spectral homotopy analysis method is more efficient and converges faster than the standard homotopy analysis method.     

Merger effect of two firms under network equilibrium

This paper studies the merger effect of two firms under the price competition of n firms, represented by n nodes on a linear network equilibrium model. The difference of profits between pre- and post-merger of the two firms can be described explicitly in terms of the substitution matrix. In general, the evaluation of the merger effect requires the knowledge of the substitution effects among all n nodes. For some interesting special cases, however, we obtain simple qualitative results. Specifically, the profitability of the merger can be predicted from the substitution effect of the two firms. Numerical examples exhibit the usefulness of our results.     

A new approach to the analysis of random methods for detecting necessary linear inequality constraints

A new approach is given for the analysis of random methods for detecting necessary constraints in systems of linear inequality constraints. This new approach directly accounts for the fact that two constraints are detected as necessary (hit) at each iteration of a random method. The significance of this two-hit analysis is demonstrated by comparing it with the usual one-hit analysis.     

Formulation of hybrid Trefftz finite element method for elastoplasticity

The present investigation provides a hybrid Trefftz finite element approach for analysing elastoplastic problems. A dual variational functional is constructed and used to derive hybrid Trefftz finite element formulation for elastoplasticity of bulky solids. The formulation is applicable to either strain hardening or elastic-perfectly plastic materials. A solution algorithm based on initial stress formulation is introduced into the new element model. The performance of the proposed element model is assessed by three examples and comparison is made with results obtained by other approaches. The hybrid Trefftz finite element approach is demonstrated to be particularly suited for nonlinear analysis of two-dimensional elastoplastic problems.     

Comment on “A new clustering approach using data envelopment analysis”

In a recent paper Po, Guh and Yang [Po, R.-W., Guh, Y.-Y., Yang, M.-S., 2009. A new clustering approach using data envelopment analysis. European Journal of Operational Research 199, 276–284] propose a new algorithm for forming clusters from the results of a DEA analysis. In this comment it is explained that the algorithm only generates information that is readily available from the usual DEA results.     

A proof of strongly uniform termination for Gödel's T by methods from local predicativity

We estimate the derivation lengths of functionals in G?del's system of primitive recursive functionals of finite type by a purely recursion-theoretic analysis of Schütte's 1977 exposition of Howard's weak normalization proof for . By using collapsing techniques from Pohlers' local predicativity approach to proof theory and based on the Buchholz-Cichon and Weiermann 1994 approach to subrecursive hierarchies we define a collapsing f unction so that for (closed) terms of G?del's we have: If reduces to then By one uniform proof we obtain as corollaries: A derivation lengths classification for functionals in , hence new proof of strongly uniform termination of . A new proof of the Kreisel's classific ation of the number-theoretic functions which can be defined in , hence a classification of the provably total functions of Peano Arithmetic. A new proof of Tait's results on weak normalization for . A new proof of Troelstra's result on strong normalization for . Additionally, a slow growing analysis of G?del's is obtained via Girard's hierarchy comparison theorem. This analyis yields a contribution to two open pro blems posed by Girard in part two of his book on proof theory. For the sake of completeness we also mention the Howard Schütte bound on derivation lengths for the simple typed -calculus. Received August 4, 1995     

Functional approach to a posteriori error estimation for elliptic optimal control problems with distributed control

A new approach to the a posteriori analysis of distributed optimal control problems is presented. The approach is based on functional type a posteriori estimates that provide computable and guaranteed bounds of errors for any conforming approximations of a boundary value problem. Computable two-sided a posteriori estimates for the cost functional and estimates for approximations of the state and control functions are derived. Numerical results illustrate the efficiency of the approach. Bibliography: 35 titles. __________ Translated from Problemy Matematicheskogo Analiza, No. 35, 2007, pp. 3–14     

Random effects logistic regression model for ranking efficiency in data envelopment analysis

Ranking efficiency based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) results can be used for grouping decision-making units (DMUs). The resulting group membership can be partly related to the environmental characteristics of DMU, which are not used either as input or output. Utilizing the expert knowledge on super efficiency DEA results, we propose a multinomial Dirichlet regression model, which can be used for the purpose of selection of new projects. A case study is presented in the context of ranking analysis of new information technology commercialization projects. It is expected that our proposed approach can complement the DEA ranking results with environmental factors and at the same time it facilitates the prediction of efficiency of new DMUs with only given environmental characteristics.     

New results on exponential passivity of neural networks with time-varying delays

The problem of delay-dependent exponential passivity analysis is investigated for neural networks with time-varying delays. By use of a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, a new exponential passivity criterion is proposed via the full use of the information of neuron activation functions and the involved time-varying delays. The obtained results have less conservativeness and less number of decision variables than the existing ones. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and the reduced conservatism of the derived results.