A dichotomy for the convex spaces of probability measures

We show that every nonempty compact and convex space M of probability Radon measures either contains a measure which has ‘small’ local character in M or else M contains a measure of ‘large’ Maharam type. Such a dichotomy is related to several results on Radon measures on compact spaces and to some properties of Banach spaces of continuous functions.     

Monotone and cash-invariant convex functions and hulls

This paper provides some useful results for convex risk measures. In fact, we consider convex functions on a locally convex vector space E which are monotone with respect to the preference relation implied by some convex cone and invariant with respect to some numeraire (‘cash’). As a main result, for any function f, we find the greatest closed convex monotone and cash-invariant function majorized by f. We then apply our results to some well-known risk measures and problems arising in connection with insurance regulation.     

Interpolation in Bernstein and Paley-Wiener spaces

We consider interpolation of discrete functions by continuous ones with restriction on the size of spectra. We discuss a sharp contrast between the cases of compact and unbounded spectra. In particular we construct ‘universal’ spectra of small measure which deliver positive solution of the interpolation problem in Bernstein spaces for every discrete sequence of knots.     

Conditional value at risk and related linear programming models for portfolio optimization

Many risk measures have been recently introduced which (for discrete random variables) result in Linear Programs (LP). While some LP computable risk measures may be viewed as approximations to the variance (e.g., the mean absolute deviation or the Gini’s mean absolute difference), shortfall or quantile risk measures are recently gaining more popularity in various financial applications. In this paper we study LP solvable portfolio optimization models based on extensions of the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measure. The models use multiple CVaR measures thus allowing for more detailed risk aversion modeling. We study both the theoretical properties of the models and their performance on real-life data.     

Tail VaR Measures in a Multi-period Setting

Abstract

This paper studies a coherent acceptability measure which is a negative coherent risk measure, in a multi-period model. When a coherent acceptability measure changes according to new information in the market, a time consistency plays an important role. The usual strong time consistency gives too severe a multi-period Tail Value at Risk (Tail VaR) from a practical viewpoint. We study a weak type of time consistency and propose new multi-period Tail VaR measures.     

规避风险的多阶段最优库存研究

基于市场需求是随机的,并且在进行市场销售前,就要确定每个阶段的生产数量的背景下,建立了具有规避风险的多阶段库存凸随机规划模型.该模型以最小化损失函数的期望值为目标函数,以规避风险为约束条件,以价值风险(VaR)和条件价值风险(CVaR)为风险度量;采用样本平均近似方法(SAA)求解该模型,并分析样本平均近似方法的收敛性;最后,给出数值结果.     

A recursive algorithm for multivariate risk measures and a set-valued Bellman’s principle

A method for calculating multi-portfolio time consistent multivariate risk measures in discrete time is presented. Market models for d assets with transaction costs or illiquidity and possible trading constraints are considered on a finite probability space. The set of capital requirements at each time and state is calculated recursively backwards in time along the event tree. We motivate why the proposed procedure can be seen as a set-valued Bellman’s principle, that might be of independent interest within the growing field of set optimization. We give conditions under which the backwards calculation of the sets reduces to solving a sequence of linear, respectively convex vector optimization problems. Numerical examples are given and include superhedging under illiquidity, the set-valued entropic risk measure, and the multi-portfolio time consistent version of the relaxed worst case risk measure and of the set-valued average value at risk.     

Single and multi-period optimal inventory control models with risk-averse constraints

This paper presents some convex stochastic programming models for single and multi-period inventory control problems where the market demand is random and order quantities need to be decided before demand is realized. Both models minimize the expected losses subject to risk aversion constraints expressed through Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as risk measures. A sample average approximation method is proposed for solving the models and convergence analysis of optimal solutions of the sample average approximation problem is presented. Finally, some numerical examples are given to illustrate the convergence of the algorithm.     

Analysis of the MAP/G/1/N queue with multiple vacations

This paper deals with a batch service queue and multiple vacations. The system consists of a single server and a waiting room of finite capacity. Arrival of customers follows a Markovian arrival process (MAP). The server is unavailable for occasional intervals of time called vacations, and when it is available, customers are served in batches of maximum size ‘b’ with a minimum threshold value ‘a’. We obtain the queue length distributions at various epochs along with some key performance measures. Finally, some numerical results have been presented.     

An economic production lot size model in an imperfect production system

The paper investigates an EPL (Economic Production Lotsize) model in an imperfect production system in which the production facility may shift from an ‘in-control’ state to an ‘out-of-control’ state at any random time. The basic assumption of the classical EPL model is that 100% of produced items are perfect quality. This assumption may not be valid for most of the production environments. More specifically, the paper extends the article of Khouja and Mehrez [Khouja, M., Mehrez, A., 1994. An economic production lot size model with imperfect quality and variable production rate. Journal of the Operational Research Society 45, 1405–1417]. Generally, the manufacturing process is ‘in-control’ state at the starting of the production and produced items are of conforming quality. In long-run process, the process shifts from the ‘in-control’ state to the ‘out-of-control’ state after certain time due to higher production rate and production-run-time.The proposed model is formulated assuming that a certain percent of total product is defective (imperfect), in ‘out-of-control’ state. This percentage also varies with production rate and production-run time. The defective items are restored in original quality by reworked at some costs to maintain the quality of products in a competitive market. The production cost per unit item is convex function of production rate. The total costs in this investment model include manufacturing cost, setup cost, holding cost and reworking cost of imperfect quality products. The associated profit maximization problem is illustrated by numerical examples and also its sensitivity analysis is carried out.     

A two-level supply chain with partial backordering and approximated Poisson demand

We consider a two-level supply chain with a number of identical, independent ‘retailers’ at the lower echelon and a single supplier at the upper echelon controlled by continuous review inventory policy (R, Q). Each retailer experiences Poisson demand with constant transportation times. We assume constant lead time for replenishing supplier orders from an external warehouse to the supplier and unsatisfied retailer orders are backordered in the supplier. We assume that the unsatisfied demand is partially backordered in the identical retailers. The partially backordering policy is implemented in the identical retailers using an explicit control parameter ‘b’ which limits the maximum number of backorders allowed to be accumulated during the lead time. We develop an approximate cost function to find optimal reorder points for given batch sizes in all installations, the optimal value of b in the identical retailers and the related accuracy is assessed through simulation.     

Diagnostic assessment of children’s proportional reasoning

A proportional reasoning item bank was created from the relevant literature and tested in various forms. Rasch analyses of 303 pupils’ test results were used to calibrate the bank, and data from 84 pupils’ interviews was used to confirm our diagnostic interpretations. A number of sub-tests were scaled, including parallel ‘without models’ and ‘with models’ forms. We provide details of the 13-item ‘without models’ test which was formed from the ‘richest’ diagnostic items and verified on a further test sample (N=212, ages 10-13). Two scales were constructed for this test, one that measures children’s ‘ratio attainment’ and one that measures their ‘tendency for additive strategy.’ Other significant errors — ‘incorrect build-up,’ ‘magical doubling/halving,’ ‘constant sum’ and ‘incomplete reasoning’ — were identified. Finally, an empirical hierarchy of pupils’ attainment of proportional reasoning was formed, incorporating the significant errors and the additive scale.     

Global attractivity and permanence of a SVEIR epidemic model with pulse vaccination and time delay

In this study, we propose a new SVEIR epidemic disease model with time delay, and analyze the dynamic behavior of the model under pulse vaccination. Pulse vaccination is an effective strategy for the elimination of infectious disease. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain an ‘infection-free’ periodic solution. We also show that the ‘infection-free’ periodic solution is globally attractive when some parameters of the model under appropriate conditions. The permanence of the model is investigated analytically. Our results indicate that a large vaccination rate or a short pulse of vaccination or a long latent period is a sufficient condition for the extinction of the disease.     

Simulation and evaluation of the distribution of interest rate risk

We study methods to simulate term structures in order to measure interest rate risk more accurately. We use principal component analysis of term structure innovations to identify risk factors and we model their univariate distribution using GARCH-models with Student’s t-distributions in order to handle heteroscedasticity and fat tails. We find that the Student’s t-copula is most suitable to model co-dependence of these univariate risk factors. We aim to develop a model that provides low ex-ante risk measures, while having accurate representations of the ex-post realized risk. By utilizing a more accurate term structure estimation method, our proposed model is less sensitive to measurement noise compared to traditional models. We perform an out-of-sample test for the U.S. market between 2002 and 2017 by valuing a portfolio consisting of interest rate derivatives. We find that ex-ante Value at Risk measurements can be substantially reduced for all confidence levels above 95%, compared to the traditional models. We find that that the realized portfolio tail losses accurately conform to the ex-ante measurement for daily returns, while traditional methods overestimate, or in some cases even underestimate the risk ex-post. Due to noise inherent in the term structure measurements, we find that all models overestimate the risk for 10-day and quarterly returns, but that our proposed model provides the by far lowest Value at Risk measures.

     

Comparing tail variabilities of risks by means of the excess wealth order

There is a growing interest in the actuarial community in employing certain tail conditional characteristics as measures of risk, which are informative about the variability of the losses beyond the value-at-risk (one example is the tail conditional variance, introduced by Furman and Landsman (2006a, 2006b)). However, comparisons of tail risks based on different measures may not always be consistent. In addition, conclusions based on these conditional characteristics depend on the choice of the tail probability p, so different p’s also may produce contradictory conclusions. In this note, we suggest comparing tail variabilities of risks by means of the excess wealth order, which makes judgments only if large classes of tail conditional characteristics imply the same conclusion, independently of the choice of p.     

Risk measuring under liquidity risk

We present a general framework for measuring the liquidity risk. The theoretical framework defines risk measures that incorporate the liquidity risk into the standard risk measures. We consider a one-period risk measurement model. The liquidity risk is defined as the risk that a security or a portfolio of securities cannot be sold or bought without causing changes in prices. The risk measures are decomposed into two terms, one measuring the risk of the future value of a given position in a security or a portfolio of securities and the other the initial cost of this position. Within the framework of coherent risk measures, the risk measures applied to the random part of the future value of a position in a determinate security are increasing monotonic and convex cash sub-additive on long positions. The contrary, in certain situations, holds for the sell positions. By using convex risk measures, we apply our framework to the situation in which large trades are broken into many small ones. Dual representation results are obtained for both positions in securities and portfolios. We give many examples of risk measures and derive for each of them the respective capital requirement. In particular, we discuss the VaR measure.     

Continuous and discrete flows over time

Network flows over time form a fascinating area of research. They model the temporal dynamics of network flow problems occurring in a wide variety of applications. Research in this area has been pursued in two different and mainly independent directions with respect to time modeling: discrete and continuous time models. In this paper we deploy measure theory in order to introduce a general model of network flows over time combining both discrete and continuous aspects into a single model. Here, the flow on each arc is modeled as a Borel measure on the real line (time axis) which assigns to each suitable subset a real value, interpreted as the amount of flow entering the arc over the subset. We focus on the maximum flow problem formulated in a network where capacities on arcs are also given as Borel measures and storage might be allowed at the nodes of the network. We generalize the concept of cuts to the case of these Borel Flows and extend the famous MaxFlow-MinCut Theorem.     

Correlation and the time interval in multiple regression models

In this paper we investigate the time interval effect of multiple regression models in which some of the variables are additive and some are multiplicative. The effect on the partial regression and correlation coefficients is influenced by the selected time interval. We find that the partial regression and correlation coefficients between two additive variables approach one-period values as n increases. When one of the variables is multiplicative, they will approach zero in the limit. We also show that the decreasing speed of the n-period correlation coefficients between both multiplicative variables is faster than others, except that a one-period correlation has a higher positive value. The results of this paper can be widely applied in various fields where regression or correlation analyses are employed.     

A two-echelon base-stock inventory model with Poisson demand and the sequential processing of orders at the upper echelon

We consider a two-echelon inventory system with a number of non-identical, independent ‘retailers’ at the lower echelon and a single ‘supplier’ at the upper echelon. Each retailer experiences Poisson demand and operates a base stock policy with backorders. The supplier manufactures to order and holds no stock. Orders are produced, in first-come first-served sequence, with a fixed production time. The supplier therefore functions as an M/D/1 queue. We are interested in the performance characteristics (average inventory, average backorder level) at each retailer. By finding the distribution of order lead time and hence the distribution of demand during order lead time, we find the steady state inventory and backorder levels based on the assumption that order lead times are independent of demand during order lead time at a retailer. We also propose two alternative approximation procedures based on assumed forms for the order lead time distribution. Finally we provide a derivation of the steady state inventory and backorder levels which will be exact as long as there is no transportation time on orders between the supplier and retailers. A numerical comparison is made between the exact and approximate measures. We conclude by recommending an approach which is intuitive and computationally straightforward.     

Ruin probabilities in the discrete time renewal risk model

In this paper, we study the discrete time renewal risk model, an extension to Gerber’s compound binomial model. Under the framework of this extension, we study the aggregate claim amount process and both finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities. For completeness, we derive an upper bound and an asymptotic expression for the infinite-time ruin probabilities in this risk model. Also, we demonstrate that the proposed extension can be used to approximate the continuous time renewal risk model (also known as the Sparre Andersen risk model) as Gerber’s compound binomial model has been proposed as a discrete-time version of the classical compound Poisson risk model. This allows us to derive both numerical upper and lower bounds for the infinite-time ruin probabilities defined in the continuous time risk model from their equivalents under the discrete time renewal risk model. Finally, the numerical algorithm proposed to compute infinite-time ruin probabilities in the discrete time renewal risk model is also applied in some of its extensions.