生长曲线模型的变量选择

生长曲线模型是一个典型的多元线性模型, 在现代统计学上占有重要地位. 文章首先基于Potthoff-Roy变换后的生长曲线模型, 采用自适应LASSO为惩罚函数给出了参数矩阵的惩罚最小二乘估计, 实现了变量的选择. 其次, 基于局部渐近二次估计, 对生长曲线模型的惩罚最小二乘估计给出了统一的近似估计表达式. 接着, 讨论了经过Potthoff-Roy变换后模型的惩罚最小二乘估计, 证明了自适应LASSO具有Oracle性质. 最后对几种变量选择方法进行了数据模拟. 结果表明自适应LASSO效果比较好. 另外, 综合考虑, Potthoff-Roy变换优于拉直变换.     

推广的生长曲线模型中未知参数矩阵的广义最小二乘估计的可容许性

本文在设计矩阵与结构矩阵分别正交的条件下,研究了推广的生长曲线模型未知参数矩阵的广义最小二乘估计.运用矩阵理论证明了此广义最小二乘估计在某个线性估计类中的可容许性.并对潘建新(1989)的结果的推广.     

估计单指标模型的单调联系函数

本文我们研究了联系函数单调时单指标模型的模型估计问题. 基于投影方向的相合估计, 本文提出用I-样条的办法来估计联系函数, 并建立带惩罚函数的最小二乘准则的相合性. 通过模拟与现有的方法进行了对比, 表明我们的估计方法是非常有效的.     

惩罚的偏最小二乘

本文研究了二个推广的惩罚的偏小二乘模型,将惩罚估计的算法作用于偏最小二乘估计上,得到了参数的最终估计.将此模型运用到一个实际数据,在预测方面获得了较好的结果.     

生长曲线模型中基于奇异值分解的岭估计

在生长曲线模型中将设计阵的奇异值分解与普通的岭估计相结合,针对设计阵A与C至少有一个病态时的情况提出生长曲线模型中基于奇异值分解的岭估计.比较其在均方误差,均方误差矩阵,及PC准则下相对于最小二乘估计的优良性.证明其容许性并利用Hemmerle和Brantle用于确定广义岭估计参数的方法给出极小化均方误差的无偏估计法选取岭参数.     

生长曲线模型的分位数回归

生长曲线模型有着广泛的应用, 在经济学、生物学、医学等各个领域的研究都起着重要的作用. 已有文献关于生长曲线模型参数矩阵的估计基本上是使用最小二乘方法或极大似然方法. 使用最小二乘方法, 当误差项服从偏峰分布、厚尾分布、或者存在异常点时, 得出的估计不是有效的; 使用极大似然方法, 要求分布已知, 实际使用时很难满足这一点. 分位数回归能弥补如上这些缺陷, 所得估计具有很好的稳健性. 本文使用分位数回归方法给出生长曲线模型参数矩阵的估计, 及其渐近正态性.     

线性空间自回归模型的不同惩罚函数下参数估计的比较及其实证分析

在线性空间自回归模型的研究中,本文首次提出了将三种惩罚LASSO,ALASSO,SCAN进行惩罚效果的比较;然后利用惩罚最小二乘进行参数估计,在三种惩罚函数下,进行了模拟分析,并且将三种惩罚估计与拟极大似然估计进行了比较,在实例分析中,针对美国的暴力犯罪问题,在加入空间因素后,讨论了本区域和周边环境的因素对暴力犯罪率的影响。在整理了美国各州的暴力犯罪数据后,我们发现仍然有59个自变量,利用三种惩罚函数,得出在各种惩罚下的压缩估计,经过进一步分析,得出了影响某一区域的暴力犯罪率的主要因素。     

对部分线性模型用惩罚最小二乘估计时最优光滑化的注记

部分线性模型也就是响应变量关于一个或者多个协变量是线性的, 但对于其他的协变量是非线性的关系\bd 对于部分线性模型中的参数和非参数部分的估计方法, 惩罚最小二乘估计是重要的估计方法之一\bd 对于这种估计方法, 广义交叉验证法提供了一种确定光滑参数的方法\bd 但是, 在部分线性模型中, 用广义交叉验证法确定光滑参数的最优性还没有被证明\bd 本文证明了利用惩罚最小二乘估计对于部分线性模型估计时, 用广义交叉验证法选择光滑参数的最优性\bd 通过模拟验证了本文中所提出的用广义交叉验证法选择光滑参数具有很好的效果, 同时, 本文在模拟部分比较了广义交叉验证和最小二乘交叉验证的优劣.     

函数型部分线性乘积模型的B-样条估计

本文研究了函数型部分线性乘积模型,该模型可用于响应变量为正数的函数型数据的统计建模问题,经过对数变换后模型转化为函数型部分线性模型.基于B-样条,通过极小化最小一乘相对误差(LARE)和最小乘积相对误差(LPRE),分别给出模型的LARE估计和LPRE估计,其中B-样条基的维数利用Schwarz信息准则选取.对两种估计方法分别给出斜率函数估计的相合性和参数部分估计的渐近正态性,并且证明了斜率函数的收敛率达到了非参数函数估计的最优速率.蒙特卡洛模拟用来比较所提出的方法与最小一乘(LAD)估计和最小二乘(LS)估计在不同误差分布下的有限样本性质,模拟结果表明所提方法是有效和实用的.最后通过一个实际数据分析的例子来说明模型的应用.     

生长曲线模型中参数的Bayes线性无偏估计

本文在平方损失下导出了生长曲线模型中参数的Bayes线性无偏估计(LUE), 并在均方误差矩阵(MSEM)准则下研究了Bayes LUE相对于广义最小二乘估计(GLSE)的优良性. 对于非满秩情形,获得了可估函数的Bayes LUE并讨论了其优良性问题.     

On the impact of model selection on predictor identification and parameter inference

We assessed the ability of several penalized regression methods for linear and logistic models to identify outcome-associated predictors and the impact of predictor selection on parameter inference for practical sample sizes. We studied effect estimates obtained directly from penalized methods (Algorithm 1), or by refitting selected predictors with standard regression (Algorithm 2). For linear models, penalized linear regression, elastic net, smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD), least angle regression and LASSO had a low false negative (FN) predictor selection rates but false positive (FP) rates above 20 % for all sample and effect sizes. Partial least squares regression had few FPs but many FNs. Only relaxo had low FP and FN rates. For logistic models, LASSO and penalized logistic regression had many FPs and few FNs for all sample and effect sizes. SCAD and adaptive logistic regression had low or moderate FP rates but many FNs. 95 % confidence interval coverage of predictors with null effects was approximately 100 % for Algorithm 1 for all methods, and 95 % for Algorithm 2 for large sample and effect sizes. Coverage was low only for penalized partial least squares (linear regression). For outcome-associated predictors, coverage was close to 95 % for Algorithm 2 for large sample and effect sizes for all methods except penalized partial least squares and penalized logistic regression. Coverage was sub-nominal for Algorithm 1. In conclusion, many methods performed comparably, and while Algorithm 2 is preferred to Algorithm 1 for estimation, it yields valid inference only for large effect and sample sizes.     

Shrinkage estimation analysis of correlated binary data with a diverging number of parameters

For analyzing correlated binary data with high-dimensional covariates,we,in this paper,propose a two-stage shrinkage approach.First,we construct a weighted least-squares(WLS) type function using a special weighting scheme on the non-conservative vector field of the generalized estimating equations(GEE) model.Second,we define a penalized WLS in the spirit of the adaptive LASSO for simultaneous variable selection and parameter estimation.The proposed procedure enjoys the oracle properties in high-dimensional framework where the number of parameters grows to infinity with the number of clusters.Moreover,we prove the consistency of the sandwich formula of the covariance matrix even when the working correlation matrix is misspecified.For the selection of tuning parameter,we develop a consistent penalized quadratic form(PQF) function criterion.The performance of the proposed method is assessed through a comparison with the existing methods and through an application to a crossover trial in a pain relief study.     

A random model approach for the LASSO

The least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (LASSO) is a method of estimation for linear models similar to ridge regression. It shrinks the effect estimates, potentially shrinking some to be identically zero. The amount of shrinkage is governed by a single parameter. Using a random model formulation of the LASSO, this parameter can be specified as the ratio of dispersion parameters. These parameters are estimated using an approximation to the marginal likelihood of the observed data. The observed score equations from the approximation are biased and hence are adjusted by subtracting an empirical estimate of the expected value. After estimation, the model effects can be tested (via simulation) as the distribution of the observed data given that all model effects are zero is known. Two related simulation studies are presented that show that dispersion parameter estimation results in effect estimates that are competitive with other estimation methods (including other LASSO methods).     

Variable Selection for Partially Linear Models via Adaptive LASSO

Partially linear model is a class of commonly used semiparametric models, this paper focus on variable selection and parameter estimation for partially linear models via adaptive LASSO method. Firstly, based on profile least squares and adaptive LASSO method, the adaptive LASSO estimator for partially linear models are constructed, and the selections of penalty parameter and bandwidth are discussed. Under some regular conditions, the consistency and asymptotic normality for the estimator are investigated, and it is proved that the adaptive LASSO estimator has the oracle properties. The proposed method can be easily implemented. Finally a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed variable selection procedure, results show the adaptive LASSO estimator behaves well.     

Real‐time road traffic forecasting using regime‐switching space‐time models and adaptive LASSO

Smart transportation technologies require real‐time traffic prediction to be both fast and scalable to full urban networks. We discuss a method that is able to meet this challenge while accounting for nonlinear traffic dynamics and space‐time dependencies of traffic variables. Nonlinearity is taken into account by a union of non‐overlapping linear regimes characterized by a sequence of temporal thresholds. In each regime, for each measurement location, a penalized estimation scheme, namely the adaptive absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), is implemented to perform model selection and coefficient estimation simultaneously. Both the robust to outliers least absolute deviation estimates and conventional LASSO estimates are considered. The methodology is illustrated on 5‐minute average speed data from three highway networks. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于组LASSO的重组近亲杂交合作小鼠基因位点定位研究

重组近亲杂交合作小鼠品系(CC-RIX)具有很多优点,特别是在复杂疾病的数量性状位点定位方面,具有较高功效.本文在现有研究基础上,考虑了仅含主基因效应的混合线性定位模型,并通过组LASSO惩罚函数法对问题进行转换,然后采用迭代加权最小二乘法对转换后的问题进行求解.从而克服了设计矩阵容易奇异,计算速度慢等计算上的难题.模拟计算表明,本文所提模型和方法在CC-RIX品系的数量性状位点定位中能快速、准确地识别出数量性状位点,并具有较高的真阳性率,以及较低的假阳性率.     

Variable Selection in General Frailty Models Using Penalized H-Likelihood

Variable selection methods using a penalized likelihood have been widely studied in various statistical models. However, in semiparametric frailty models, these methods have been relatively less studied because the marginal likelihood function involves analytically intractable integrals, particularly when modeling multicomponent or correlated frailties. In this article, we propose a simple but unified procedure via a penalized h-likelihood (HL) for variable selection of fixed effects in a general class of semiparametric frailty models, in which random effects may be shared, nested, or correlated. We consider three penalty functions (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [LASSO], smoothly clipped absolute deviation [SCAD], and HL) in our variable selection procedure. We show that the proposed method can be easily implemented via a slight modification to existing HL estimation approaches. Simulation studies also show that the procedure using the SCAD or HL penalty performs well. The usefulness of the new method is illustrated using three practical datasets too. Supplementary materials for the article are available online.