基于节点重要性的供应链网络风险跨层次评估研究

近几年,随着扰动供应链稳定运作事件的多次发生,供应链风险评估研究日益受到人们重视,然而以往研究大多针对某一企业的具体风险进行评估,鲜有从整个供应链网络角度进行系统的分析.对此,文章结合复杂网络节点位置特性的相关理论,首先建立了基于多指标最优策略的企业重要性评估模型,实现了对企业重要性的综合评估.其次,将企业重要性评估结果作为过渡参量引入供应链网络风险评估模型中,实现从"微观企业风险"到"宏观供应链网络风险"的跨层次评估.最后实证研究表明,多属性指标的企业重要性评估模型和供应链网络风险综合评估模型可以对企业综合重要性以及供应链网络综合风险进行更为准确的定量评判.     

以生产企业为核心的食品供应链风险评价研究

食品质量关乎人们的生活品质和身体健康,而食品质量的高低与以生产企业为核心的食品供应链风险高度相关.控制食品质量,则需要分析和评价食品供应链风险,但现有的食品供应链风险研究文献中缺乏针对以生产企业为核心的食品供应链风险的分析与评价.采用文献研究和理论分析相结合的方法对以生产企业为核心的食品供应链风险进行基于数据包络分析的模糊综合评价.首先,分析了以生产企业为核心的食品供应链风险的影响要素,构建了风险指标体系;其次,依据所建立的风险指标体系,运用基于数据包络分析的模糊综合评价方法对供应链风险进行了系统评价,克服了模糊综合评价的主观性弊端,使经过数据包络分析后的数据更接近以生产企业为核心的食品供应链运作的实际情况;最后,通过算例验证了此方法的有效性.     

考虑风险传导情形的供应风险评估方法

针对考虑风险传导情形的供应风险评估问题,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的供应风险评估方法。该方法中,通过识别引起供应链中各节点企业供应风险的关键风险因素,构建一个贝叶斯网络,并依据贝叶斯公式计算考虑风险传导情形下供应风险的发生概率,在此基础上,对考虑风险传导的供应风险进行评估。最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

对模糊综合评判失效的研究

本文主要以定理为依据．提出了在Zadeh算子下消除模糊综合评判失效的一种有效方法.     

汽车绿色供应链风险评价研究

随着社会的不断发展,人们开始意识到愈演愈烈的环境污染问题,因此绿色供应链的发展也逐渐受到关注.近年来,关于绿色供应链的研究越来越多,并且涉及众多领域,与此同时人们开始关注绿色供应链带来的风险.因此,当前绿色供应链急需解决的难题是如何帮助企业来分析、识别、预测供应链风险的因素,并将风险因素造成的损失控制在可承受范围内,保证其在企业内安全高效地运作并带来回报.文章在研究汽车绿色供应链管理的基础上,运用层次分析法,得到汽车绿色供应链风险评价体系,再通过模糊综合评判法对风险进行评估,从而进行有效的风险预防与控制.本文旨在为汽车绿色供应链的风险管理提供理论方法与策略支持,推动我国汽车绿色供应链的可持续发展.     

对模糊综合评判失效的研究

本文主要以定理为依据，提出了在Ｚａｄｅｈ算子下消除模糊综合评判失效的一种有效方法．     

基于贝叶斯网络的船舶靠港装卸作业溢油风险评价

通过对港口船舶靠港装卸作业溢油相关统计资料和文献的分析,识别船舶靠港装卸作业溢油风险的影响因素,并根据各因素的因果关系构建船舶靠港装卸作业溢油风险贝叶斯网络拓扑结构,确定各节点的取值范围;综合运用贝叶斯条件概率模型及三角模糊数处理方法,获得各节点变量的条件概率;在此基础上利用GeNIe软件进行概率推理和风险因素灵敏度分析;最后,以我国沿海四个港口为例进行了实际评价.研究结果表明运用贝叶斯网络模型评价船舶靠港装卸作业溢油风险问题是合理和有效的,不仅可为港口和船舶安全管理等制度的制定提供理论依据,也验证了应用贝叶斯网络评价船舶靠港装卸作业溢油风险的方法是一种科学有效的方法.     

ERP系统实施风险的模糊综合评判

充分考虑了ERP系统实施的风险性,建立了一套用模糊综合评判法评判ERP系统实施风险的指标,并通过实例说明了ERP系统实施风险的模糊综合评判方法.     

基于贝叶斯网络的工程项目进度完工概率分析

针对传统计划评审技术(Program Evaluation and Review Technique,PERT)在计算完工概率时假设条件的局限性(假设条件与工程实际存在偏差,导致完工概率偏大),提出了基于贝叶斯网络的施工进度完工概率分析方法.首先,分析了贝叶斯网络与进度计划网络之间的相似性,将两者结合起来构建了贝叶斯进度网络;在此基础上,综合考虑贝叶斯网络在节点取值及概率计算方面的优越性,并结合工程项目的不确定性及复杂性特点,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的施工进度完工概率分析模型.最后,将该模型应用于具体工程进行实例分析,验证了模型的可行性与有效性.研究结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络的进度完工概率模型充分考虑了工程施工中的风险因素,其结果能更客观地反映工程实际,可为工程项目决策者提供可靠的依据.     

模糊综合评判的失效与处理

本文在叙述模糊综合评判及失效概念的基础上，给出了几种失效的判定与处理方法。     

供应链网络可靠性的多层Bayes估计模型

对供应链网络可靠性进行界定和分析,以节点企业间的协同为基础,得到可靠度计算模型,以此为依据采集实证样本无失效运行的数据.根据供应链网络可靠性统计特性,建立一种多层Bayes估计方法,应用于样本可靠性评估中.在估计失效率的基础上,对供应链网络可靠度进行估计,对仿真结果进行分析,显示多层Bayes估计方法应用效果较好,精确度高,反映了参数不确定性对供应链网络可靠性的影响,能够较好地解决依据无失效数据判定供应链网络可靠性水平的问题.     

Interactive group decision-making using a fuzzy linguistic approach for evaluating the flexibility in a supply chain

With global competition rapidly intensifying and shifting to the supply chain level, the supply chain flexibility has become increasingly important. However, the literature addressing supply chain flexibility remains limited. This study thus builds a group decision-making structure model of flexibility in supply chain management development. This study presents a framework for evaluating supply chain flexibility comprising two parts, an evaluation hierarchy with flexibility dimensions and related metrics, and an evaluation scheme that uses a three-stage process to evaluate supply chain flexibility. This study then proposes an algorithm for determining the degree of supply chain flexibility using a fuzzy linguistic approach. Evaluations of the degree of supply chain flexibility can identify the need to improve supply chain flexibility, and identify specific dimensions of supply chain flexibility as the best directions for improvement. The results of this study are more objective and unbiased for two reasons. First, the results are generated by group decision-making with interactive consensus analysis. Second, the fuzzy linguistic approach used in this study has more advantage to preserve no loss of information than other methods. Additionally, this study presents an example using a case study to illustrate the availability of the proposed methods and compare it with other methods.     

模糊影响图评价算法在供应链金融信用风险评估中的应用

传统的银行信贷模式风险评价专注于个体企业的财务数据.供应链金融新融资模式下的信用风险评价不同于传统的融资模式风险评价,它的评价范围更宽,不确定性因素更加复杂.在分析供应链金融模式的信用风险评价体系的基础上,结合模糊集和影响图理论建立了模糊影响图评价模型,对评估中难以量化的问题进行模糊处理,对变量之间的模糊影响关系进行分析,最后计算出信用风险概率分布.方法定性与定量相结合,为供应链金融新模式下的风险评估提供了一种新思路.     

A Fuzzy Principal Component Analysis Approach to Hierarchical Evaluation Model for Balanced Supply Chain Scorecard Grading

Effective performance management is critical to efficient supply chain management systems with the balanced scorecard as well as to effective evaluation models and their algorithms. Problems often encountered in the modeling of the balanced scorecard for supply chain are how to overcome the multicollinearity in its index system. In this paper, a new fuzzy hierarchical evaluation model featuring the criteria of the balanced supply chain scorecard is proposed and analyzed on the basis of data about Chinese firms. The model, based on the fuzzy weight’s matrix derived from a fuzzy principal component analysis, overcomes the multicollinearity in the index system of the balanced supply chain scorecard. This method proves good performance in determining the weight distribution matrix of the fuzzy hierarchical evaluation and improves the evaluation accuracy and generalization as shown for a group of firms in western China.     

连锁超市供应链风险评价模型及实证研究

随着经济的飞速发展,供应链风险管理问题越来越受到企业的重视．但国内外还缺乏对连锁超市供应链风险的深入研究．事实上,很多连锁超市的供应链上很多环节并不完善．本文分析了连锁超市供应链上所面临的风险,构建了连锁超市供应链风险评价模型,以某连锁超市为例,通过调查问卷与所得数据,并利用熵权法确定了各指标的权重,最后基于模糊综合评价法得出的结果,提出了降低连锁超市供应链风险的对策建议．     

Intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map approach for the evaluation of supply chain configuration criteria

Because of the growing global competence and effectiveness concepts, supply chain becomes more important for organizations. Therefore, managers object to find best supply chain configuration for their firms. This study proposes a comprehensive configuration for supply chain management process, and it enables to understand relationships among supply chain integration, supply chain strategies, supply chain risk factors, and performance criteria. By reviewing the literature and using experts' knowledge, supply chain configuration criteria are determined. Intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map methodology is employed to consider the interrelations between criteria. Intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map methodology is a suitable tool due to the presence of causalities and relationships among criteria and the difficulty of expressing the interrelations with crisp numbers. It also deals with uncertain and vague data and allows representing hesitation. The application is conducted in an automobile factory, which is one of the largest manufacturers in Turkey. The results show that selection of proper supplier is the most significant supply chain configuration criteria. Thus, the importance of supplier selection criteria is also analyzed as the second phase of the study.     

毕达哥拉斯群决策方法及其在绿色供应商选取中的应用

针对专家权重未知且属性值为毕达哥拉斯模糊数的多属性群决策问题,基于证据理论和混合加权毕达哥拉斯MSM算子,提出了一种群决策方法。 首先,由决策信息矩阵获取专家的模糊测度,并赋予其相应的权重;其次,基于新构造的混合加权毕达哥拉斯MSM算子对专家所提供的属性信息分别进行集结,得到各个专家的综合评价信息;再次,利用证据合成方法,对专家综合评价信息进行融合,获得候选方案的综合证据信息,进而可知备选方案的信任区间,并据此对候选方案进行优选决策;最后,绿色供应商选取案例的分析与对比验证了方法的可行性与合理性。     

供应链融资模式下中小企业信用风险评估研究——基于左右得分的模糊TOPSIS算法

中小企业信用风险评价是供应链融资实现的关键。本文在对已进行的研究总结的基础上,建立了一套比较完整的评价指标体系,然后运用DEA、AHP和基于左右得分的模糊TOPSIS相结合的评价方法对中小企业在供应链融资中的信用风险进行评价。最后,将方法成功应用到具体实例,结果表明将AHP方法和左右得分模糊TOPSIS结合应用到多层次指标评价问题是合理、可行的,能够为供应链融资信用风险评估提供决策依据。     

基于ANP-Fuzzy模型的农产品供应链风险评价研究

供应链风险大小直接影响供应链运作的效率和效益.现有的农产品供应链风险评价研究文献中对农产品供应链风险的系统度量研究不多.提出了农产品供应链风险评价体系,从种植、组织、流通、加工、供应、需求、环境七个方面构建了农产品供应链风险评价指标体系,运用ANP法确定指标权重,构建了基于ANP-Fuzzy模型的农产品供应.链风险评价方法,在此基础上,对农产品供应链风险进行实证分析,说明模型的实用性.     

Supplier risk assessment based on trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and ELECTRE TRI-C: a case illustration involving service suppliers

Many companies today have embraced the concept of risk management, usually in the form of enterprise risk management or supply chain risk management. Both are based on a holistic view of risks. Hence, risks related to specific functions within a company must be considered more broadly than previously. Risks, however, involve uncertainty, and the less specific the context in which risks are viewed, the more uncertainty will be involved. One particular way to express uncertainty is through trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (TrIFNs). In this paper, risks that are relevant for supplier risk assessments are first collected from the literature. Then it is illustrated how the multi-criteria decision analysis method ELECTRE TRI-C can be used for sorting suppliers into risk categories, when the risks as well as some of the method’s parameters are expressed with TrIFNs. In order to do this, we make use of a small modification of an existing method for converting TrIFNs into crisp values. The approach is illustrated in a case problem based on a company that is looking for service providers (suppliers) of electrical maintenance. The problem involves 20 suppliers that are sorted into three risk categories based on evaluations from 27 criteria. Results from the case study point to two low risk suppliers. A further ad-hoc analysis suggests one of these to be less risky than the other.