基于投入产出分析的燃料乙醇价格变动模拟研究

目前我国的燃料乙醇定价机制不能真实反映出燃料乙醇原料的价格变动对燃料乙醇价格的实际影响.该文编制了2005年中国燃料乙醇投入产出表,在此基础上,建立了燃料乙醇价格影响模型,接着运用M ATLAB软件,模拟了生产燃料乙醇的原料——玉米的价格变动时及玉米和水、电等资源性产品的价格同时变动时对燃料乙醇价格的实际影响.     

A transient stochastic simulation–optimization model for operational fuel planning in-theater

Army fuel planners are responsible for developing daily loading plans that specify which tankers to load, with what fuel, and where to send the loaded tankers. The tools used to accomplish this task are custom built spreadsheets which require large amounts of time and effort to use, update, and keep free of errors. This research presents a transient stochastic simulation–optimization model of the in-theater bulk fuel supply chain, where the simulation model is used to simulate the performance of the fuel supply chain under a particular fuel distribution policy and the optimization portion is used to update the policy so that it results in the performance desired by the Army fuel planner. The fuel distribution policy can then be used to derive the daily loading plan. Due to the multi-objective nature of the problem, the set of policies that form the efficient frontier are all candidate policies for the Army fuel planner to select from. Results of experimentation with a wide variety of supply chain scenarios indicate that, for a given supply chain scenario, the optimization portion of the model identifies a set of fuel distribution policies that address the objectives of the Army fuel planner. In addition, the simulation–optimization model comfortably solves the largest supply chain scenarios the Army fuel planner would reasonably be expected to encounter.     

基于组合方法的机场航油销售量预测研究——以新疆为例

为了使预测更为准确,采用了三种模型加权组合的方法对机场航油销售量预测进行了组合预测.探讨了影响新疆机场航油销售量的三大因素,并对"十三五"期间各年航油销售量进行预测与研究分析.通过研究新疆机场航油销售量与旅客吞吐量、货邮吞吐量和起降架次之间的关联关系,通过建立相关系数模型、新陈代谢灰色GM(1,1)模型和弹性系数模型对新疆"十三五"期间新疆机场航油销售量进行预测.研究结果表明,此组合模型能够较为准确的预测新疆"十三五"期间的机场航油销售量,为航油设施、设备的规划提供了理论依据.     

中美燃料油期货价格引导研究

本文利用ADF单整检验、EG协整检验、误差修正模型、引导关系检验等方法研究中美燃料油期货价格之间的互动关系,结果表明:我国燃料油期货在价格和价格收益方面均与国际燃料油市场存在明显的即时引导关系;国际燃料油期货市场上的价格变动对国内燃料油期货价格以及价格收益的变动具有单向的滞后引导作用;我国燃料油期货市场的价格和收益方面的信息对于国际市场几乎不产生影响,我国尚不具备制定价格的话语权。     

Thermal regimes of high burn-up nuclear fuel rod

The temperature distribution in the nuclear fuel rods for high burn-up is studied. We use the numerical and analytical approaches. It is shown that the time taken to have the stationary thermal regime of nuclear fuel rod is less than one minute. We can make the inference that the behavior of the nuclear fuel rod can be considered as a stationary task. Exact solutions of the temperature distribution in the fuel rods in the stationary case are found. Thermal regimes of high burn-up the nuclear fuel rods are analyzed.     

基于投入产出线性规划模型的燃料乙醇影子价格研究

影子价格能够反映资源的稀缺性及对国民经济的贡献程度.应用投入产出与线性规划相结合的分析方法,构建了投入产出线性规划模型,并基于笔者编制的2005年燃料乙醇投入产出表,针对燃料乙醇制造业部门的不同发展速度,运用投入产出线性规划模型对燃料乙醇的影子价格进行了具体测算.     

Supporting hydrogen based transportation: case studies with Global MARKAL Model

Steadily growing prices of oil and emissions coming from conventional vehicles, might force a switch to an alternative and less polluting fuel in the coming future. In this article we analyze the potential influence of selected factors for successful market penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in hydrogen based private transportation economy. Using a world scale, full energy system, bottom-up, optimization model (Global MARKAL Model—GMM) we address the possibility of supporting the fuel cell vehicle technology to become competitive in the markets. In a series of optimizations we evaluate the potential influence of governmental supports and the internalization of externalities related to CO₂ and local pollution emissions originating from the transportation sector, as well as preferential crediting options and demonstration projects promoting fuel cell vehicles. The results suggest that the crucial element is the price of fuel cells and their further potential to reduce costs. This reduction of costs may be triggered by governmental support such as direct subsidies to fuel cells, preferential crediting options for the buildup of hydrogen infrastructure as well as penalization of emitters of CO₂ and/or local pollutants.     

A spatial optimisation model for multi-period landscape level fuel management to mitigate wildfire impacts

Elevated fuel loads are contributing to an increase in the occurrence of, and area burned by, severe wildfires in many regions across the globe. In an attempt to reverse this trend, fire and land management agencies are investing in extensive fuel management programs. However, the planning of fuel treatment activities poses complicated decision-making problems with spatial and temporal dimensions. Here, we present a mixed integer programming model for spatially explicit multi-period scheduling of fuel treatments. The model provides a flexible framework that allows for landscape heterogeneity and a range of ecological and operational considerations and constraints. The model’s functionality is demonstrated on a series of hypothetical test landscapes and a number of implementation issues are discussed.     

A multiple period capacitated inventory model for airline fuel management: a case study

One of the major operating cost items of an airline company is fuel, which can amount to approximately 20% of its overall operating cost. This paper presents a decision support model that determines the amount of fuel to be uplifted by a plane at each station along its route over a predetermined planning horizon so as to minimise overall fuel costs. The aforementioned fuel management problem is modelled as a multiple period capacitated inventory problem and solved using linear programming. An example application illustrates the applicability of this model to Middle East Airline's (MEA) operations and summarises the dollar savings obtained by applying it over a one week planning horizon.     

A novel variable step size fractional order incremental conductance algorithm to maximize power tracking of fuel cells

The maximum power tracking of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFC) is important for the optimization of fuel cell system design. It is necessary to operate a fuel cell at maximum power to ensure full efficiency. This study presents a novel Fractional Order Incremental Conductance Algorithm (FOINC) with variable step size control which can be used for maximum power point tracking in the design of fuel cells. The method has high maximum power point tracking speed and good steady-state response, and does not require extra sensing elements for different fuel cell equipment. When compared to the traditional Incremental Conductance (INC) and Perturbation and Observation (P&O) methods, the system simulation results show the method to be feasible and effective.     

Mechanics of composite materials in fuel cell systems

The science and technology that are fundamental to the concept of composite materials are also the foundation for the construction and function of fuel cells and fuel cell systems. The present paper outlines this relationship in the context of the physics and chemistry that are enabled by the specific selection and arrangement of constituents of the functional composite fuel cell. General principles of operation are described, and fundamental issues are defined that must be addressed by the composites community if the fuel cell science and engineering is to advance. Examples of several types of functional composite fuel cells are presented, with emphasis on polymer electrolyte (PEM) and solid-oxide (SOFC) systems. Specific needs for continued research are identified.Russian translation published in Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 3–16, January–February, 2005.     

Maximum neutron flux in thermal research reactors

This paper deals with the determination of the space distribution of fuel concentration in thermal reactors for the purpose of obtaining maximum neutron flux. With some approximations, this problem is reduced to a nonclassical variational problem, which is solved by using Pontryagin's maximum principle. It is shown that the optimal fuel configuration of the reactor core consists of a reflector in its center, a zone of constant (permissible) power density, a zone of constant (maximum) fuel concentration, and a peripheral reflector of infinite thickness.     

FuelOpt: a decision support system for forest fuel logistics

The use of forest fuel is increasing at heating plants in Sweden. Heating plants provide energy in the form of hot water for heating houses and apartments in local municipalities. Forest fuel are products obtained from harvesting in forests that cannot be used for further processing at sawmills and pulp and paper mills. Examples of such products are tree branches, tree tops and low quality logs. The optimization of the supply chain for round-wood (logs to sawmills, pulp and paper mills) and for forest fuel is similar but involves two main differences. First, forest fuel has to be converted into chips before delivery to the customer, and second, the demand for forest fuel varies over the year due to the temperature. To balance the chipping and transportation capacities over time, it is important to manage inventory levels at terminals. The optimization model developed provides decision support for questions regarding the choice of technology for chipping, where to perform the chipping operations, and the allocation of different assortments to heating plants. The system has been tested on a large case study from a Swedish forest energy company. The results show large savings and that the system is very useful for both planning and business development.     

Fuel treatment planning: Fragmenting high fuel load areas while maintaining availability and connectivity of faunal habitat

Reducing the fuel load in fire-prone landscapes is aimed at mitigating the risk of catastrophic wildfires but there are ecological consequences. Maintaining habitat for fauna of both sufficient extent and connectivity while fragmenting areas of high fuel loads presents land managers with seemingly contrasting objectives. Faced with this dichotomy, we propose a Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) model that can optimally schedule fuel treatments to reduce fuel hazards by fragmenting high fuel load regions while considering critical ecological requirements over time and space. The model takes into account both the frequency of fire that vegetation can tolerate and the frequency of fire necessary for fire-dependent species. Our approach also ensures that suitable alternate habitat is available and accessible to fauna affected by a treated area. More importantly, to conserve fauna the model sets a minimum acceptable target for the connectivity of habitat at any time. These factors are all included in the formulation of a model that yields a multi-period spatially-explicit schedule for treatment planning. Our approach is then demonstrated in a series of computational experiments with hypothetical landscapes, a single vegetation type and a group of faunal species with the same habitat requirements. Our experiments show that it is possible to fragment areas of high fuel loads while ensuring sufficient connectivity of habitat over both space and time. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the habitat connectivity constraint is more effective than neighbourhood habitat constraints. This is critical for the conservation of fauna and of special concern for vulnerable or endangered species.     

基于修正积分模型的油量表重新标定与储油罐变位识别的研究

针对储油罐在使用一定时间后会发生变位即纵向倾斜和横向偏转导致罐容表度量不准确的问题，利用修正的积分方法分别建立椭圆油罐变位后储油量与油位高度模型和两头为球冠体储油罐变位后储油量与油位高度模型及变位参数确定模型，针对上述模型通过Matlab软件求解，得到了重新标定的椭圆储油罐和两头为球冠体储油罐的油量表，确定了储油罐的纵...     

Singularly perturbed homotopy analysis method

In this paper we combined the homotopy analysis method (HAM) and the method of integral manifold (MIM) to investigate the problem of thermal explosion in two-phases polydisperse combustible mixtures of gas with fuel droplets. The size distribution of the fuel droplets is assumed to be continuous in the form of an exponential distribution and is found from the solution of the kinetic equation for the probability density function. The system of the polydisperse fuel spray takes into account the effects of the thermal radiation and convection. By applying the HAM and the MIM, we derived an analytical solution of the system and we compared our results with the numerical solutions.     

Nuclear fuel cycle optimization using multi-objective stochastic linear programming

The share of electricity produced by nuclear power plants is still increasing in many countries. If the head-end of the nuclear fuel cycle, regarding all operations before leaving the reactor, has now reached maturity, many pathways are still possible in the back-end of the cycle, dealing with the spent fuel. The long-term consequences of any decision regarding subjects such as fuel reprocessing, waste disposal, etc., require the use of strategic planning methods, in which provision is made for multiple objectives and for uncertainties.An interactive multicriteria approach using stochastic linear programming is provided by the code Strange, which has already been applied to different energy strategy problems, also outside the nuclear field. The application presented in the paper illustrates the search for a best fuel cycle policy including four criteria: production costs, the supply of raw material, the commercial balance and employment. The concept of scenarios is used to describe future uncertainties.     

CO2 emissions trading planning in combined heat and power production via multi-period stochastic optimization

The EU emissions trading scheme (ETS) taking effect in 2005 covers CO₂ emissions from specific large-scale industrial activities and combustion installations. A large number of existing and potential future combined heat and power (CHP) installations are subject to ETS and targeted for emissions reduction. CHP production is an important technology for efficient and clean provision of energy because of its superior carbon efficiency. The proper planning of emissions trading can help its potential into full play, making it become a true “winning technology” under ETS. Fuel mix or fuel switch will be the reasonable choices for fossil fuel based CHP producers to achieve their emissions targets at the lowest possible cost. In this paper we formulate CO₂ emissions trading planning of a CHP producer as a multi-period stochastic optimization problem and propose a stochastic simulation and coordination approach for considering the risk attitude of the producer, penalty for excessive emissions, and the confidence interval for emission estimates. In test runs with a realistic CHP production model, the proposed solution approach demonstrates good trading efficiency in terms of profit-to-turnover ratio. Considering the confidence interval for emission estimates can help the producer to reduce the transaction costs in emissions trading. Comparisons between fuel switch and fuel mix strategies show that fuel mix can provide good tradeoff between profit-making and emissions reduction.     

Valuing the switching flexibility of the ethanol-gas flex fuel car

Renewable energy sources are becoming more important as the world’s supply of fossil fuels decrease and also due to environmental concerns. Since 2003, when the ethanol-gasoline flex fuel car became commercially available in Brazil, the growth of this market has been significant, to the point where currently more than 50% of the fuel consumption of cars in Brazil is from renewable biofuels (ethanol). This has been made possible due to the success of the flex fuel car, which can run on ethanol, gasoline, or any mix of these in the same fuel tank, and which is sold at a premium over the non-flex models.     

Étude des paramètres hétérogènes d'une surface active simulant une couronne d'éléments combustibles

In the method of the active surfaces a whole of nuclear fuel rods is described by a surface possessing suitable properties characterized in terms of ‘heterogeneous parameters’. This study gives a calculus allowing the theoretical determination of the heterogeneous parameters concerning a cylindrical active surface. The field in which an active surface is equivalent to fuel rods is discussed with particular references to 5 different fuel arrangements. A method for reaching the heterogeneous parameters from measurements in the sub-critical assembly CACTUS is described. This method takes into account the particular energy spectrum and locations of the neutron supply sources. The values of the heterogeneous parameters theoretically obtained are in the error limits of the experimental results.