Large deviations for martingales with some applications

Let(X _i ) be a martingale difference sequence. LetY be a standard normal random variable. We investigate the rate of uniform convergence

Large deviations for optimal filtering with fractional Brownian motion

We establish large deviation estimates for the optimal filter where the observation process is corrupted by a fractional Brownian motion. The observation process is transformed to an equivalent model which is driven by a standard Brownian motion. The large deviations in turn are established by proving qualitative properties of perturbations of the equivalent observation process.     

Large deviations for M-estimators

We study the large deviation principle for M-estimators (and maximum likelihood estimators in particular). We obtain the rate function of the large deviation principle for M-estimators. For exponential families, this rate function agrees with the Kullback–Leibler information number. However, for location or scale families this rate function is smaller than the Kullback–Leibler information number. We apply our results to obtain confidence regions of minimum size whose coverage probability converges to one exponentially. In the case of full exponential families, the constructed confidence regions agree with the ones obtained by inverting the likelihood ratio test with a simple null hypothesis.     

Large deviations for a class of chaos expansions

The purpose of this paper is to present a general extended contraction principle for large deviations and apply it to obtain large deviations for random variables having chaos developments of exponential type.Research partially supported by CONACYT Grant 20E9105 and 1858E9219.This work was done while this author was visiting CIMAT, at Guanajuato, Mexico, under the support of CONACYT.     

Large deviations and importance sampling for a tandem network with slow-down

We consider a variant of the two-node tandem Jackson network where the upstream server reduces its service rate when the downstream queue exceeds some prespecified threshold. The rare event of interest is the overflow of the downstream queue. Based on a game/subsolution approach, we rigorously identify the exponential decay rate of the rare event probabilities and construct asymptotically optimal importance sampling schemes. Research of P. Dupuis supported in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF-DMS-0404806 and NSF-DMS-0706003) and the Army Research Office (W911NF-05-1-0289). Research of K. Leder supported in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF-DMS-0404806 and NSF-DMS-0706003). Research of H. Wang supported in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF-DMS-0404806 and NSF-DMS-0706003).     

Large deviations bounds for estimating conditional value-at-risk

In this paper, we prove an exponential rate of convergence result for a common estimator of conditional value-at-risk for bounded random variables. The bound on optimistic deviations is tighter while the bound on pessimistic deviations is more general and applies to a broader class of convex risk measures.     

Large deviations for product of sums of random variables

In this paper, we obtain sample path and scalar large deviation principles for the product of sums of positive random variables. We study the case when the positive random variables are independent and identically distributed and bounded away from zero or the left tail decays to zero sufficiently fast. The explicit formula for the rate function of a scalar large deviation principle is given in the case when random variables are exponentially distributed.     

Large deviations theorems for optimal investment problems with large portfolios

The thrust of this paper is to develop a new theoretical framework, based on large deviations theory, for the problem of optimal asset allocation in large portfolios. This problem is, apart from being theoretically interesting, also of practical relevance; examples include, inter alia, hedge funds where optimal strategies involve a large number of assets. In particular, we also prove the upper bound of the shortfall probability (or the risk bound) for the case where there is a finite number of assets. In the two-assets scenario, the effects of two types of asymmetries (i.e., asymmetry in the portfolio return distribution and asymmetric dependence among assets) on optimal portfolios and risk bounds are investigated. We calibrate our method with international equity data. In sum, both a theoretical analysis of the method and an empirical application indicate the feasibility and the significance of our approach.     

次线性期望下独立随机变量列的大偏差和中偏差

本文研究在次线性期望下的独立随机变量列的大偏差和中偏差原理. 利用次可加方法, 我们得 到次线性期望下的大偏差原理. 与次线性期望下的中心极限定理相应的中偏差原理也被建立.     

Large deviations for stochastic nonlinear beam equations

We establish a large deviation principle for the solutions of stochastic partial differential equations for nonlinear vibration of elastic panels (also called stochastic nonlinear beam equations).     

Large deviations and moderate deviations for kernel density estimators of directional data

Let fn be the non-parametric kernel density estimator of directional data based on a kernel function K and a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables taking values in d-dimensional unit sphere Sd-1. It is proved that if the kernel function is a function with bounded variation and the density function f of the random variables is continuous, then large deviation principle and moderate deviation principle for {sup x∈sd-1 ｜fn（x） - E（fn（x））｜, n ≥ 1} hold.     

Large deviations for trajectories of sums of independent random variables

Given a sequence of independent, but not necessarily identically distributed random variables,Y _i , letS _k denote thekth partial sum. Define a function by taking to be the piecewise linear interpolant of the points (k, S _k ), evaluated att, whereS ₀=0, andk=0, 1, 2,... Fort[0, 1], let . The are called trajectories. With regularity and moment conditions on theY _i , a large deviation principle is proved for the .     

Large deviations for the 3D stochastic Navier-Stokes-Voight equations

In this paper, using the weak convergence method, a large deviation principle for 3D stochastic Navier–Stokes–Voight equations is proved.     

Large deviations for Brownian motion in a random scenery

We prove large deviations principles in large time, for the Brownian occupation time in random scenery . The random field is constant on the elements of a partition of ^d into unit cubes. These random constants, say consist of i.i.d. bounded variables, independent of the Brownian motion {B_s,s0}. This model is a time-continuous version of Kesten and Spitzer's random walk in random scenery. We prove large deviations principles in ``quenched' and ``annealed' settings.Mathematics Subject Classification (2000):60F10, 60J55, 60K37     

Large deviations for the two-dimensional Navier–Stokes equations with multiplicative noise

A Wentzell–Freidlin type large deviation principle is established for the two-dimensional Navier–Stokes equations perturbed by a multiplicative noise in both bounded and unbounded domains. The large deviation principle is equivalent to the Laplace principle in our function space setting. Hence, the weak convergence approach is employed to obtain the Laplace principle for solutions of stochastic Navier–Stokes equations. The existence and uniqueness of a strong solution to (a) stochastic Navier–Stokes equations with a small multiplicative noise, and (b) Navier–Stokes equations with an additional Lipschitz continuous drift term are proved for unbounded domains which may be of independent interest.